Eli Manning. Runners-up: Jeremy Lin, LeBron James, Kevin Durant.
Two months down, ten to go in the race for Athlete of the Year.
Athlete of the Month: February, 2012
Monday, February 27, 2012
You can find January's award here.
Eli Manning. Runners-up: Jeremy Lin, LeBron James, Kevin Durant.
Two months down, ten to go in the race for Athlete of the Year.
Eli Manning. Runners-up: Jeremy Lin, LeBron James, Kevin Durant.
Two months down, ten to go in the race for Athlete of the Year.
The Weekly Tendown February 19-25 2012(It's Oscar Sunday)
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Dear Internet:
That's the best dunk of the night; Evans won and deservedly so, but I can't say I'm in favor of crowdsourcing the scoring, it gives the announcers excessive ability to prod toward a particular winner. If its five years from now and the Oscars have followed suit by having voting via tweet and Paul Walker wins Best Supporting Actor, blame the NBA.
115 is here. This is 116.
1. Tendown Moves Pretty Fast, If You Blink, You Can Miss It.
So, the job opportunity that I've referenced in recent Tensdown resurfaced this week; at worst, I'm in the final six and all of my eggs are in this basket. They're flying me in this week, and since I'm not missing any of my regular classes, wedging that in means this issue has to go down as quickly as possible. I may do an all-Santorum Tendown this week, as if he loses Michigan Tuesday we're getting close to the end of his time in the spotlight. But before that...
2. It's Oscar Sunday!
Here are my picks.
Picture: The Artist (The only nominated film I've seen is the Descendants; I have Moneyball and Midnight in Paris but couldn't get to them yet. I preferred Beginners to Descendants of films from last year.)
Animated: Rango
Foreign: A Separation
Documentary: Paradise Lost 3(I saw it, I think I still prefer the Bill Cunningham doc. I'm looking forward to Undefeated when it comes out on DVD).
Director: Michael Hazanavicius
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris (is Woody going to the show?)
Adapted Screenplay: Descendants (I can't be the only person hoping that Jim Rash goes on a Michael Moore like run about the travesty that Community isn't still on the air during his acceptance speech. "We live in fictitious times when Whitney and that Chelsea Handler show are in production while a gloriously funny show like Community sits on the sidelines.")
Score: Adele...I mean, the Artist
Song: Man or Muppet (Flight of the Conchords, you're so big!)
Actor: Jean Durjardin
Actress: Viola Davis (I'm almost switching my vote, there's been some late Streep noise. I would vote for Michelle Williams for anything, always.)
Supporting Actor: Christoper Plummer
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer
Art Direction: Hugo
Cinematography: Tree of Life
Costume Design: Artist
Editing: Artist
Makeup: Iron Lady
Sound Edit: Hugo
Sound Mix: Hugo
Visual Effects: Planet of the Apes
Animated Short: Fantastic Flying Books...
Doc Short: Saving Face
Live Action Short: The Shore
3. What Would be in Your Rider?
This is just for premise beach, as I don't have time to write the joke, but my thought this week was if I had a rider, like Mick Jagger, what would be in it?
4. Okay, let's talk Santorum.
Obama says it should be easier for every American to attend college - Santorum says that makes Obama a snob and besides, all college is for is liberal indoctrination.
5. Okay - college is just about indoctrination, does it start there?
Nope, public schools are also all about liberal indoctrination.
6. We Hate Schools - And We Hate Europe.
Santorum says 5% of the annual deaths in the Netherlands are seniors euthanized against their will.
7. Santorum isn't Against Health Care Reform Because He's Carrying the Water of the Insurance Industry...
he's against health care reform because it's really a social experiment designed to kill people with disabilities.
8. Why Are the Democrats Trying to Kill The Special Needs Children?
because all Democrats think about is dirty, sinful sex., says Rick Santorum.
9. Why is all of This Happening to us??
Because Satan is attacking the United States, says Rick Santorum.
10. So, clearly it's all about Satan, got it. Why don't people on the left - people like me, why don't we agree with your Satan based politics, Rick?
Because the left is anti-reason.
So, there you go. Rick Santorum - the candidate of reason. Once we use our reason, the inescapable conclusion that Satan guides public policy in Scandinavia, Satan is behind the environmental movement, Satan is why anyone argues for moving away from for profit health insurance, Satan has infiltrated our universities and public schools, Satan is why we've done away with Don't Ask Don't Tell, Satan is why states no longer have the ability to make birth control illegal. Satan.
It's so clear if you just use your reason.
The right wing in 2012. There we go.
That's all for this time. I'll be back next time....if there is a next time....
Your pal,
Jim
That's the best dunk of the night; Evans won and deservedly so, but I can't say I'm in favor of crowdsourcing the scoring, it gives the announcers excessive ability to prod toward a particular winner. If its five years from now and the Oscars have followed suit by having voting via tweet and Paul Walker wins Best Supporting Actor, blame the NBA.
115 is here. This is 116.
1. Tendown Moves Pretty Fast, If You Blink, You Can Miss It.
So, the job opportunity that I've referenced in recent Tensdown resurfaced this week; at worst, I'm in the final six and all of my eggs are in this basket. They're flying me in this week, and since I'm not missing any of my regular classes, wedging that in means this issue has to go down as quickly as possible. I may do an all-Santorum Tendown this week, as if he loses Michigan Tuesday we're getting close to the end of his time in the spotlight. But before that...
2. It's Oscar Sunday!
Here are my picks.
Picture: The Artist (The only nominated film I've seen is the Descendants; I have Moneyball and Midnight in Paris but couldn't get to them yet. I preferred Beginners to Descendants of films from last year.)
Animated: Rango
Foreign: A Separation
Documentary: Paradise Lost 3(I saw it, I think I still prefer the Bill Cunningham doc. I'm looking forward to Undefeated when it comes out on DVD).
Director: Michael Hazanavicius
Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris (is Woody going to the show?)
Adapted Screenplay: Descendants (I can't be the only person hoping that Jim Rash goes on a Michael Moore like run about the travesty that Community isn't still on the air during his acceptance speech. "We live in fictitious times when Whitney and that Chelsea Handler show are in production while a gloriously funny show like Community sits on the sidelines.")
Score: Adele...I mean, the Artist
Song: Man or Muppet (Flight of the Conchords, you're so big!)
Actor: Jean Durjardin
Actress: Viola Davis (I'm almost switching my vote, there's been some late Streep noise. I would vote for Michelle Williams for anything, always.)
Supporting Actor: Christoper Plummer
Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer
Art Direction: Hugo
Cinematography: Tree of Life
Costume Design: Artist
Editing: Artist
Makeup: Iron Lady
Sound Edit: Hugo
Sound Mix: Hugo
Visual Effects: Planet of the Apes
Animated Short: Fantastic Flying Books...
Doc Short: Saving Face
Live Action Short: The Shore
3. What Would be in Your Rider?
This is just for premise beach, as I don't have time to write the joke, but my thought this week was if I had a rider, like Mick Jagger, what would be in it?
4. Okay, let's talk Santorum.
Obama says it should be easier for every American to attend college - Santorum says that makes Obama a snob and besides, all college is for is liberal indoctrination.
5. Okay - college is just about indoctrination, does it start there?
Nope, public schools are also all about liberal indoctrination.
6. We Hate Schools - And We Hate Europe.
Santorum says 5% of the annual deaths in the Netherlands are seniors euthanized against their will.
7. Santorum isn't Against Health Care Reform Because He's Carrying the Water of the Insurance Industry...
he's against health care reform because it's really a social experiment designed to kill people with disabilities.
8. Why Are the Democrats Trying to Kill The Special Needs Children?
because all Democrats think about is dirty, sinful sex., says Rick Santorum.
9. Why is all of This Happening to us??
Because Satan is attacking the United States, says Rick Santorum.
10. So, clearly it's all about Satan, got it. Why don't people on the left - people like me, why don't we agree with your Satan based politics, Rick?
Because the left is anti-reason.
So, there you go. Rick Santorum - the candidate of reason. Once we use our reason, the inescapable conclusion that Satan guides public policy in Scandinavia, Satan is behind the environmental movement, Satan is why anyone argues for moving away from for profit health insurance, Satan has infiltrated our universities and public schools, Satan is why we've done away with Don't Ask Don't Tell, Satan is why states no longer have the ability to make birth control illegal. Satan.
It's so clear if you just use your reason.
The right wing in 2012. There we go.
That's all for this time. I'll be back next time....if there is a next time....
Your pal,
Jim
The 50 Greatest Defensive Linemen in NFL History (Revised and Updated, 2012 edition)
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Part of a series. Previous post is here.
50. Fred Dryer Rams '69-81
-Hey, it's Hunter. And we're off.
49. Ed Jones '74-89 Cowboys
-Long, productive career.
48. Leroy Selmon '76-84 Bucs
-4 good years, always a productive player.
47. Bryant Young 49ers '94-07
-Long productive career with an all time great 1996 and a title.
46. Ray Childress '85-96 Oilers
-5 good seasons.
45. Lyle Alzado '71-85 Broncos/Raiders/Browns
-Long, productive career and a title.
44. Rosey Grier Giants/Rams '55-66
-5 good years, mostly productive in his 20s.
43. Claude Humphrey '68-81 Falcons
-5 good years and a couple of them big.
42. Kevin Williams 03- Vikings
-6 good seasons.
41. Bob Baumhower '77-86 Dolphins
5 good years and the third best season currently on the board.
40. Richard Seymour '01- Patriots/Raiders
-6 good seasons, the Raider resurgence over the past couple years gets him to the list.
39. Neil Smith Chiefs '88-00
-6 good seasons, his '95 is the second best season on the board so far.
38. Steve McMichael Bears '80-94
-5 strong years, really solid back to back in the mid 80s.
37. Art Donovan '50-61 Colts
-Half dozen good seasons.
36. Bill Willis '46-53 Browns
-Short but dominant career.
35. Len Ford '48-58 Browns
-5 big years right in the middle of his career.
34. Jerry Mays '61-70 Chiefs
-8 good seasons, just good throughout his whole career.
33. Richard Dent '83-97 Bears
-His 17 sack '85 is the new best season on the board.
32. John Randle '90-03 Vikings
-7 good seasons.
31. Ron Mcdole '61-78 Bills/Redskins
-8 good seasons, if Randle's a HOF'er so is McDole.
30. Cortez Kennedy '90-00 Seahawks
-Seven strong years, a little top end notch above Randle/McDole
29. Deacon Jones '61-74 Rams
-6 good seasons in the heart of his career.
28. Howie Long '81-93 Raiders
-Half dozen good seasons and the title.
27. LC Greenwood '69-81 Steelers
-6 good seasons and the titles.
26. Charles Haley '86-99 49ers/Cowboys
-5 good years, a ton of titles, and 1990, the new second best season on the board.
The top 25 Defensive Linemen Ever.
25. Julius Peppers '02- Panthers
-7 good years and a high top end; Peppers is a Hall of Famer.
24. Jack Youngblood '71-84 Rams
-7 good years, high top end.
23. Jason Taylor '97-11 Dolphins
-7 powerful years and a really high top end, his '00 is behind only Dent so far.
22. Dan Hampton '79-90 Bears
-7 good years, high top end, title. He and Taylor are comparable, but Hampton had the title.
21. Alex Karras '58-70 Lions
-8 good consistent seasons.
20. Buck Buchanan '63-75 Chiefs
-8 good seasons, I like him behind Doleman.
19. Warren Sapp '95-07 Bucs
-7 good years, high top end, 2002 is the second best year on the board, and the title.
18. Jim Marshall '60-79 Vikings
-6 good years and then a ton, just a ton of additional productivity. Absolutely should be in the HOF.
17. Henry Jordan '57-69 Packers
-Half dozen good years, high top end, titles.
16. Chris Doleman '85-99 Vikings
-9 good years and a high top end, I'm good with this order for Taylor/Hampton/Doleman.
15. Willie Davis '58-69 Packers
-7 good years, titles, high top end.
14. Bob Lilly Cowboys '61-74
-10 good years, title.
13. Ernie Stautner '50-63 Steelers
-10 good seasons and a high top end.
12. Doug Atkins Bears '53-69
-9 good years, high top end. Long, productive career.
11. Leo Nomellini '50-63 49ers
-9 good years, high top end - the best season for a defensive lineman on the board, Nomellini's '51.
The 10 Best Defensive Linemen Ever.
10. Michael Strahan '93-07 Giants
-9 good years, high top end, title.
9. Randy White '75-88 Cowboys
-9 good years, high top end, title.
8. Gino Marchetti '52-66 Colts
-9 good years, high top end, titles.
7. Carl Eller '64-79 Vikings
-10 good years, unbelievably dominant from 69-71, his '69 is best season on board.
6. Andy Robustelli Giants/Rams '51-64
-11 good years, high top end, Eller/Robustelli are a step above the prior linemen.
5. Merlin Olsen Rams '62-76
-13 good seasons, 200+ games and almost all of them productive; didn't quite have the top end of the other guys in this section.
4. Alan Page Vikings/Bears '67-81
-He's Eller but better, 10 good years, crazy dominant at his peak, his '69 is best season on the board.
3. Bruce Smith Bills '85-03
-13 good years, long, productive career, and had a little higher top end than Olsen.
2. Joe Greene Steelers '69-81
-11 good years, all the titles, high top end, productive from day one right up until he turned 35.
1. Reggie White '85-00 Eagles/Packers
-13 good to dominant years and the title. He's Bruce Smith but better. I don't think there's much question about his being the best ever.
The 50 Greatest Offensive Linemen in NFL History (Revised and Updated, 2012 edition)
Part of a series. Previous entry is here.
50. Mel Hein '31-45 Giants
-Hard to analyze individual linemen, hard to analyze anyone from the war era, but we'll consider Hein first anyway.
49. Stan Jones '54-66 Bears
-3 good years, solid until position switch.
48. Dwight Stephenson '80-87 Dolphins
-Can't rank him higher than this given the short career; he turned 30 and was done.
47. Dermontti Dawson '88-00 Steelers
-Top end not as good as Stephenson's, but much more career.
46. Bob Kuechenberg '70-83 Dolphins
-3 years you'd call good, but productive throughout career.
45. Joe Jacoby '81-93 Redskins
-Most of his productive career done after '86
44. Joe Delamieullure '73-85 Bills/Browns
-4 good years spread throughout his career.
43. Rayfield Wright '67-79 Cowboys
-5 good seasons, Wright and this next guy should have played together.
42. Larry Allen '94-07 Cowboys
-6 good years, not much after he turned 30
41. Ralph Neely Cowboys '65-77
-4 good seasons and no bad ones, Neely was valuable throughout his career. I'm not sure why Wright's in the Hall and not Neely.
40. Lou Groza '46-67 Browns
-Not only best kicker of the era, part of that dominant Browns line.
39. Charlie Cowan '61-75 Rams
-3 good seasons and then a long career of solid play.
38. Leon Gray '73-83 Patriots/Oilers
-A helluva peak; his '78 is the best year on the board so far.
37. Frank Gatski Browns '46-57
-Browns linemen. They all make it.
36. Dick Schafrath '59-71 Browns
-Even Browns linemen in the 60s make this list.
35. Alan Faneca Steelers '98-10
-7 good years, long consistent career
34. Steve Wisniewski Raiders '89-01
-7 good seasons
33. Will Shields '93-06 Chiefs
-Was always solid - and then from 31-35 had his five best seasons and retired. As good as any of the guards in this run.
32. Dan Dierdorf Cardinals '71-83
-Solid, hearty 6 year peak. I'm going to leave him ahead of Faneca, but they maybe should be flipped.
31. Mike Munchak Oilers '82-93
-7 good thumping seasons; there's no good reason to put Munchak and Dierdorf in the Hall and leave out Wisniewski/Faneca (they might not leave Faneca out, I'm just guessing)
30. Lomas Brown '85-02 Lions
-As good as the next guy and for the same reason.
29. Jackie Slater Rams '76-95
-Here for longevity, he was still productive at 38.
28. Mike Kenn '78-94 Falcons
-Just like the previous two guys.
27. Matt Light '01- Patriots
Light's a hall of famer; his '07 is the best season on the board so far.
26. Bob Brown Eagles/Rams/Raiders '64-73
-Half dozen good years.
The 25 best offensive linemen of all time.
25. Tom Mack '66-78 Rams
-A half dozen good years inside a productive career. That's apparently the profile of a HOF guard who isn't Steve Wisniewski.
24. Russ Washington '68-82 Chargers
-Half dozen good seasons, his best coming in his 30s.
23. Mick Tingelhoff Vikings '62-78
-Half dozen good seasons and then value well into his 30s
22. Gene Hickerson Browns '58-73
-All Browns linemen go to heaven.
21. Jim Tyrer '61-74 Chiefs
-7 good years right in the heart of his career; he fits right in with this coming group of guys all considered HOF candidates.
20. Willie Roaf '93-05 Saints/Chiefs
-Half dozen good years and a great late career finishing kick.
19. Jonathan Ogden Ravens '96-07
-7 good seasons. We've hit a new level I think once we get to the upper half.
18. Walter Jones '97-08 Seahawks
-7 good seasons; he and Ogden had the same career.
17. Mike Webster Steelers '74-90
-6 good seasons and titles, long, productive career.
16. Orlando Pace '97-09 Rams
Pace's top end is the best on the board; his '00 is the best season and his 3 year stretch from '99-01 is easily the best on the board so far.
15. Richmond Webb Dolphins '90-02
-8 good seasons right out of the gate; I do not understand why this isn't a HOF'er
14. Randall McDaniel Vikings '88-01
-9 good seasons, he's a step up from that run of guards earlier.
13. Ron Mix Chargers '60-71
-9 good seasons.
12. Larry Little '67-80 Dolphins
-7 punishing years and titles.
11. Gary Zimmerman Vikings/Broncos '86-97
-8 good seasons and titles; from Tyrer all the way through here I wouldn't object to any ordering, Pace was best top end but fewest good years, all the other guys just had long, consistent, productive careers.
The 10 Best Offensive Linemen of all Time.
10. Jim Parker '57-67 Colts
-Parker was a better Larry Little.
9. John Hannah '73-85 Patriots
-7 good seasons.
8. Bruce Matthews '83-01 Oilers
9 good seasons, multiple positions, long, productive career.
7. Ron Yary '68-82 Vikings
-7 good to great seasons, his top end is as good as Pace's.
6. Jim Ringo '53-67 Packers/Eagles
-8 good seasons and titles.
5. Forrest Gregg Packers '56-71
-9 good seasons right in the heart of his career and titles, not quite Shell's top end.
4. Art Shell Raiders '68-82
-8 good seasons and titles. His '77 is the second best season on the board.
3. Jim Otto Raiders '60-74
-9 good seasons, the best center who ever lived.
2. Gene Upshaw '67-81 Raiders
-9 good seasons and titles.
1. Anthony Munoz '80-92 Bengals
-10 good seasons, many of them great. He's the best lineman ever.
The 50 Greatest Wide Receivers/Tight Ends in NFL History (Revised and Updates, 2012 edition)
Monday, February 20, 2012
Part of a series. Previous installment is here.
Part of a series. Previous entry is here.
Andre Johnson is probably a year away.
50. Lynn Swann Steelers '74-82
-Just here for the titles; he only had 3 good seasons. But the postseason counts and I think he deserves this slot for at least one more year. Absolutely not a Hall of Fame career.
49. Mike Ditka Bears/Cowboys '61-72
-Five good years to start his career and then essentially just a guy once he turned 27. Jerry Smith maybe has a beef with this pick.
48. Ozzie Newsome Browns '78-90
-Solid but not spectacular really all the way through his 20s.
47. Stanley Morgan Patriots '77-90
-Where did his 1986 come from? A few good years early in his career, leading the league in yards per catch 3 straight seasons, and then when he was 31 he had about twice as many receptions as in any other season in his career.
46. Harold Carmichael Eagles '71-84
-4 good seasons, spread throughout his career; Swann's 50th, but the other 4 guys so far could be in any order.
45. Billy Howton Packers/Cowboys '52-63
-4 good years, really profiles like the guys in this section.
44. Herman Moore Lions '91-02
-5 good seasons, his 123 catch '95 is pretty easily the best season on the board so far.
43. Hines Ward Steelers '98-11
-6 good seasons, most of anyone on the board so far. Long, productive career.
42. Cliff Branch Raiders '72-85
-5 good seasons and his '74 is the second best season on the board so far.
41. Drew Pearson Cowboys '73-83
-Profiles like Branch, take a look at how they compare from ages 23-7. You could flip them if you wanted.
40. Chad Johnson Bengals '01-
-His 5 year window started a couple of years after Branch/Pearson but its essentially the same career, five good years in his 20s makes up the heart of his career. His 2005 is the new second best year on the board.
39. Steve Smith Panthers '01-
-His profile is very different, 4 good years but spread all over his career; his '05 is the new third best season on the board.
38. John Mackey Colts '63-72
-Like Ditka, 4 good years in the heart of his 20s.
37. Otis Taylor Chiefs '65-75
-4 good seasons including the new best on the board, his 22+ yards per catch '66.
36. Bob Hayes Cowboys '65-75
-6 good seasons including a 26 yards/catch '70.
35. Jimmy Smith '92-05 Jaguars
-8 good seasons, most of anyone on the board so far; was solid well into his 30s.
34. Harold Jackson '68-83 Rams/Patriots/Eagles
-6 good seasons, really fits in this section right around a Smith and Hayes.
33. Gary Clark '85-95 Redskins
-5 good seasons, fits in this section.
32. Fred Biletnikoff Raiders '65-78
-4 good seasons inside a long, solid career. It's a challenge to order this whole section of receivers.
31. Kellen Winslow Chargers '79-87
-Like Mackey/Ditka with number of good seasons, his top end was higher that either.
30. Jackie Smith Cardinals '63-78
-He was Ditka/Mackey but in addition to matching their peaks had a longer shelf life.
29. Rod Smith Broncos '95-06
-8 good seasons and his peak run came in his 30s.
28. Elroy Hirsch '46-57 Rams
-His '51 is the new second best season on the board, 17 touchdowns and over 124 yards a game.
27. Henry Ellard '83-98 Rams
-5 good seasons.
26. Andre Reed '85-00 Bills
-6 good years right in the meat of his 20s.
25. Art Monk '80-95 Redskins
-5 good seasons and the titles.
The 25 Best WR/TE Of All Time
25. Art Monk '80-95 Redskins
-5 good seasons and the titles.
24. John Stallworth '74-87 Steelers
-5 good seasons and the titles.
23. Bobby Mitchell '58-68 Redskins/Browns
-7 good seasons, just always good. I can't spell Redskins, incidentally, I always invert the k and the s.
22. Antonio Gates Chargers '03-
-7 good years, it sort of looks like his most productive days ended after 09.
21. Charlie Joiner Chargers '69-86
-5 good years and then crazy longevity.
20. Shannon Sharpe Broncos '90-03
-6 good years, the titles edge him past Gates on the TE board.
19. Torry Holt
-6 good seasons including 2000, a top 5 season on the board.
18. Cris Carter Vikings '87-02
-6 good years and crazy longevity
17. James Lofton '78-93 Packers
-6 good years and crazy longevity
16. Tim Brown Raiders '88-04
8 good years and crazy longevity; when looking at the Art Monk guys, the guys who played a long time and were productive without any huge years, Brown had a better career than anyone on the list to this point.
15. Don Maynard Jets '58-73
5 good seasons
14. Charley Taylor Redskins '64-77
-8 good seasons, like Bobby Mitchell but just a little bit better.
13. Isaac Bruce Rams '94-09
-7 good seasons, longevity, and a slightly better top end than any of the other longevity guys so far, I think I take Bruce over Brown/Carter/Lofton/Monk/Reed
12. Lance Alworth Chargers '62-72
-7 good seasons, all peak, good and then done.
11. Reggie Wayne Colts '01-11
-8 good seasons, just thick with value for almost his entire career.
The Ten Best Wide Receivers in NFL History
10. Steve Largent Seahawks '76-89
-9 good seasons, superconsistent, lacking any top end season.
9. Paul Warfield Browns/Dolphins '64-77
-8 good seasons and titles, a slightly better profile than Alworth/Wayne
8. Raymond Berry Colts '55-67
-7 good seasons, titles, his top end a little higher than Warfield/Largent.
7. Don Hutson Packers '35-45
-You want to grain of salt his numbers a tick given the wartime competition, but pretty clearly the top receiver of the era, and its fair to call his 1942, averaging 110+ yards a game, the best year on the board so far.
6. Michael Irvin Cowboys '88-99
-7 good to great years, in that Alworth/Berry/Warfield line, his top end was better than theirs.
5. Tony Gonzalez Chiefs '97-
11 good years; more than anyone on the list - he's Largent, but more so and a tight end; there is no good debate about the best tight end of all time.
4. Randy Moss Vikings/Patriots '98-10
-9 good to great years, like Irvin but more so, even Irvin's postseason advantage, and its significant, doesn't quite get him past Moss, although it's superclose. Moss's 23 touchdown 2007 is the new best season on the board.
3. Terrell Owens 49ers/Cowboys '96-10
-9 good years, his very best isn't as good as either Irvin or Moss, but when TO wasn't "good", he was still a valuable football player - Owens in Buffalo, valuable; Owens in Cincinnati, valuable - he could still play right up until the calls stopped coming. It wasn't like he shot someone....
2. Marvin Harrison Colts '96-08
-Just killed it 8 years in a row; top end of the league right up until he totally fell off the table and was out of the league. For a game out of this group you take Moss, for one play, it's maybe Irvin, but for a block of five years, take Harrison. This group is super bunched together; there are no wrong answers from this list for who is the second best receiver ever.
1. Jerry Rice 49ers '85-04
-There's only one answer for who is the best receiver ever. The most good seasons? Rice-14. The best receiving season ever? Rice-1994. Second best? Rice-1993. The best run for any receiver ever? Rice from '93-5. Postseason? Forget it. Pick any two receivers you like, add them up and you still take Rice. If anyone ever tells you there's a different choice for best ever, never speak to that person again.
Part of a series. Previous entry is here.
Andre Johnson is probably a year away.
50. Lynn Swann Steelers '74-82
-Just here for the titles; he only had 3 good seasons. But the postseason counts and I think he deserves this slot for at least one more year. Absolutely not a Hall of Fame career.
49. Mike Ditka Bears/Cowboys '61-72
-Five good years to start his career and then essentially just a guy once he turned 27. Jerry Smith maybe has a beef with this pick.
48. Ozzie Newsome Browns '78-90
-Solid but not spectacular really all the way through his 20s.
47. Stanley Morgan Patriots '77-90
-Where did his 1986 come from? A few good years early in his career, leading the league in yards per catch 3 straight seasons, and then when he was 31 he had about twice as many receptions as in any other season in his career.
46. Harold Carmichael Eagles '71-84
-4 good seasons, spread throughout his career; Swann's 50th, but the other 4 guys so far could be in any order.
45. Billy Howton Packers/Cowboys '52-63
-4 good years, really profiles like the guys in this section.
44. Herman Moore Lions '91-02
-5 good seasons, his 123 catch '95 is pretty easily the best season on the board so far.
43. Hines Ward Steelers '98-11
-6 good seasons, most of anyone on the board so far. Long, productive career.
42. Cliff Branch Raiders '72-85
-5 good seasons and his '74 is the second best season on the board so far.
41. Drew Pearson Cowboys '73-83
-Profiles like Branch, take a look at how they compare from ages 23-7. You could flip them if you wanted.
40. Chad Johnson Bengals '01-
-His 5 year window started a couple of years after Branch/Pearson but its essentially the same career, five good years in his 20s makes up the heart of his career. His 2005 is the new second best year on the board.
39. Steve Smith Panthers '01-
-His profile is very different, 4 good years but spread all over his career; his '05 is the new third best season on the board.
38. John Mackey Colts '63-72
-Like Ditka, 4 good years in the heart of his 20s.
37. Otis Taylor Chiefs '65-75
-4 good seasons including the new best on the board, his 22+ yards per catch '66.
36. Bob Hayes Cowboys '65-75
-6 good seasons including a 26 yards/catch '70.
35. Jimmy Smith '92-05 Jaguars
-8 good seasons, most of anyone on the board so far; was solid well into his 30s.
34. Harold Jackson '68-83 Rams/Patriots/Eagles
-6 good seasons, really fits in this section right around a Smith and Hayes.
33. Gary Clark '85-95 Redskins
-5 good seasons, fits in this section.
32. Fred Biletnikoff Raiders '65-78
-4 good seasons inside a long, solid career. It's a challenge to order this whole section of receivers.
31. Kellen Winslow Chargers '79-87
-Like Mackey/Ditka with number of good seasons, his top end was higher that either.
30. Jackie Smith Cardinals '63-78
-He was Ditka/Mackey but in addition to matching their peaks had a longer shelf life.
29. Rod Smith Broncos '95-06
-8 good seasons and his peak run came in his 30s.
28. Elroy Hirsch '46-57 Rams
-His '51 is the new second best season on the board, 17 touchdowns and over 124 yards a game.
27. Henry Ellard '83-98 Rams
-5 good seasons.
26. Andre Reed '85-00 Bills
-6 good years right in the meat of his 20s.
25. Art Monk '80-95 Redskins
-5 good seasons and the titles.
The 25 Best WR/TE Of All Time
25. Art Monk '80-95 Redskins
-5 good seasons and the titles.
24. John Stallworth '74-87 Steelers
-5 good seasons and the titles.
23. Bobby Mitchell '58-68 Redskins/Browns
-7 good seasons, just always good. I can't spell Redskins, incidentally, I always invert the k and the s.
22. Antonio Gates Chargers '03-
-7 good years, it sort of looks like his most productive days ended after 09.
21. Charlie Joiner Chargers '69-86
-5 good years and then crazy longevity.
20. Shannon Sharpe Broncos '90-03
-6 good years, the titles edge him past Gates on the TE board.
19. Torry Holt
-6 good seasons including 2000, a top 5 season on the board.
18. Cris Carter Vikings '87-02
-6 good years and crazy longevity
17. James Lofton '78-93 Packers
-6 good years and crazy longevity
16. Tim Brown Raiders '88-04
8 good years and crazy longevity; when looking at the Art Monk guys, the guys who played a long time and were productive without any huge years, Brown had a better career than anyone on the list to this point.
15. Don Maynard Jets '58-73
5 good seasons
14. Charley Taylor Redskins '64-77
-8 good seasons, like Bobby Mitchell but just a little bit better.
13. Isaac Bruce Rams '94-09
-7 good seasons, longevity, and a slightly better top end than any of the other longevity guys so far, I think I take Bruce over Brown/Carter/Lofton/Monk/Reed
12. Lance Alworth Chargers '62-72
-7 good seasons, all peak, good and then done.
11. Reggie Wayne Colts '01-11
-8 good seasons, just thick with value for almost his entire career.
The Ten Best Wide Receivers in NFL History
10. Steve Largent Seahawks '76-89
-9 good seasons, superconsistent, lacking any top end season.
9. Paul Warfield Browns/Dolphins '64-77
-8 good seasons and titles, a slightly better profile than Alworth/Wayne
8. Raymond Berry Colts '55-67
-7 good seasons, titles, his top end a little higher than Warfield/Largent.
7. Don Hutson Packers '35-45
-You want to grain of salt his numbers a tick given the wartime competition, but pretty clearly the top receiver of the era, and its fair to call his 1942, averaging 110+ yards a game, the best year on the board so far.
6. Michael Irvin Cowboys '88-99
-7 good to great years, in that Alworth/Berry/Warfield line, his top end was better than theirs.
5. Tony Gonzalez Chiefs '97-
11 good years; more than anyone on the list - he's Largent, but more so and a tight end; there is no good debate about the best tight end of all time.
4. Randy Moss Vikings/Patriots '98-10
-9 good to great years, like Irvin but more so, even Irvin's postseason advantage, and its significant, doesn't quite get him past Moss, although it's superclose. Moss's 23 touchdown 2007 is the new best season on the board.
3. Terrell Owens 49ers/Cowboys '96-10
-9 good years, his very best isn't as good as either Irvin or Moss, but when TO wasn't "good", he was still a valuable football player - Owens in Buffalo, valuable; Owens in Cincinnati, valuable - he could still play right up until the calls stopped coming. It wasn't like he shot someone....
2. Marvin Harrison Colts '96-08
-Just killed it 8 years in a row; top end of the league right up until he totally fell off the table and was out of the league. For a game out of this group you take Moss, for one play, it's maybe Irvin, but for a block of five years, take Harrison. This group is super bunched together; there are no wrong answers from this list for who is the second best receiver ever.
1. Jerry Rice 49ers '85-04
-There's only one answer for who is the best receiver ever. The most good seasons? Rice-14. The best receiving season ever? Rice-1994. Second best? Rice-1993. The best run for any receiver ever? Rice from '93-5. Postseason? Forget it. Pick any two receivers you like, add them up and you still take Rice. If anyone ever tells you there's a different choice for best ever, never speak to that person again.
The Weekly Tendown February 12-18 2012(Special Halfdown Edition)
Sunday, February 19, 2012
Dear Internet:
Sarah Palin ruins everything. V-J Day. The Moon landing. The first showing of the Thriller video. All just a Sarah Palin endorsement away from complete worthlessness. Sarah Palin comes out in favor of free curly fries every June and we're all suddenly on Atkins..
114 is here. This is 115.
1. The One Non Sports Piece You Have to Read This Week
The Roberts Court vs. America.
The Supreme Court went down a similar road in the Gilded Age and afterward, defending laissez-faire economic principles against minimum wages,
maximum hours, and other Progressive and New Deal regulation. The new
cases have different doctrinal logic, and the economy has changed vastly, but
the bottom lines are eerily alike: giving constitutional protection to unequal
economic power in the name of personal liberty.
2. The One Sports Piece You Have to Read This Week.
It's SI, about Wes Leonard, the high school basketball player who died after hitting a game winning shot.
3. Sandwiches Require Two Pieces of Bread
My mother and I have a longstanding debate. My argument is that sandwiches definitionally require bread. Hers is that anything could be a sandwich, salt, tomato slices = sandwich.
A Massachusetts court agrees with me. A sandwich is: "two thin pieces of bread, usually buttered, with a thin layer (as of meat, cheese, or savory mixture) spread between them"
If the Roberts court would only engage in more cases dealing with foodstuffs and less water carrying for the plutocracy, all of our lives would improve.
4. Should I Buy a Droid 4?
I'm askin'.
5. RIP
Bad week.
Freddie Solomon.
Gary Carter.
I'm you're a 41 year old 49er fan, Freddie Solomon was one of your guys. Hard to see one of your guys dead before he turned 60.
Gary Carter's one of the five greatest catchers who ever lived; one day a little more than ten years ago he turned to a studio audience, nodded at me and said "there's a guy who knows a lot about baseball."
It is probably the nicest thing anyone ever said about me.
That's all for this time. I'll be back next time. If there is a next time...
Your pal,
Jim
Sarah Palin ruins everything. V-J Day. The Moon landing. The first showing of the Thriller video. All just a Sarah Palin endorsement away from complete worthlessness. Sarah Palin comes out in favor of free curly fries every June and we're all suddenly on Atkins..
114 is here. This is 115.
1. The One Non Sports Piece You Have to Read This Week
The Roberts Court vs. America.
The Supreme Court went down a similar road in the Gilded Age and afterward, defending laissez-faire economic principles against minimum wages,
maximum hours, and other Progressive and New Deal regulation. The new
cases have different doctrinal logic, and the economy has changed vastly, but
the bottom lines are eerily alike: giving constitutional protection to unequal
economic power in the name of personal liberty.
2. The One Sports Piece You Have to Read This Week.
It's SI, about Wes Leonard, the high school basketball player who died after hitting a game winning shot.
Xavier sat there, cubical scoreboard flashing above him, 3,500 fans roaring around him, the sneakers of other boys singing like birds on the polished wood at his feet. The burden of perfection was too great.
The Blackhawks would ride an emotional roller coaster for 11 days. They would beat Lawrence and then Bangor and then Covert, reaching the regional semifinals before losing by 24 points to Schoolcraft, the eventual state champion. Xavier would blame himself for failing in a task he never wanted.
That fall, with Wes gone, Xavier would get his chance to be the finest three-sport athlete in Fennville. He would start at quarterback, go down with a shoulder injury, come back as a receiver, and finally quit with one game left in a dismal season. He would join the basketball team late after threatening to quit. Once in a while he would walk into the gym, the last place he saw Wes, and feel on his skin a mild charge of electricity.
But as he sat on the bench in the second quarter with his team trailing by four points to the Lawrence Tigers, Xavier knew none of that. Nor did he know he was about to play the finest game of the season, with 11 points in the fourth quarter and 18 altogether, or that he'd come back two nights later and pour in 25, or that his playoff scoring average would nearly match the regular-season average of the all-state point guard who at this moment was back in Fennville, in a lonely chapel, surrounded by Trappist-cut walnut, wearing his warmup jacket.
3. Sandwiches Require Two Pieces of Bread
My mother and I have a longstanding debate. My argument is that sandwiches definitionally require bread. Hers is that anything could be a sandwich, salt, tomato slices = sandwich.
A Massachusetts court agrees with me. A sandwich is: "two thin pieces of bread, usually buttered, with a thin layer (as of meat, cheese, or savory mixture) spread between them"
If the Roberts court would only engage in more cases dealing with foodstuffs and less water carrying for the plutocracy, all of our lives would improve.
4. Should I Buy a Droid 4?
I'm askin'.
5. RIP
Bad week.
Freddie Solomon.
Gary Carter.
I'm you're a 41 year old 49er fan, Freddie Solomon was one of your guys. Hard to see one of your guys dead before he turned 60.
Gary Carter's one of the five greatest catchers who ever lived; one day a little more than ten years ago he turned to a studio audience, nodded at me and said "there's a guy who knows a lot about baseball."
It is probably the nicest thing anyone ever said about me.
That's all for this time. I'll be back next time. If there is a next time...
Your pal,
Jim
The 50 Greatest Running Backs in NFL History (Revised and Updated, 2012 edition)
Friday, February 17, 2012
Part 2 of a series. Part 1 is here.
Updated after the 2012 season.
Going to start with (1) all RBs with 100 AV (2) all RBs in the HOF and work from there.
There are 28 RBs with AV over 100. I'll set a minimum of 60 games started for the HOF backs.
50. Red Grange Bears 1925-34
-Tough to evaluate a leather helmet back, but there are a few at the bottom end of the list.
49. John Henry Johnson Steelers 1954-66
-We've got a few fullbacks on the list
48. Bronko Nagurski Bears 1930-43
-Both from the 30s and a fullback. Grange+Johnson=Bronko
47. Don Perkins Cowboys 1961-8
-More fullbacks! I heart fullbacks!
46. Lawrence McCutcheon Rams 1972-81
-This is what a running back's career looks like; five good seasons in his 20s and then nothing for a couple years until he got run out of the league. His '73 is the best season on the board so far.
45. Chuck Muncie Saints/Chargers 1976-84
-Boom or bust, really good in '79, '81, '82 and almost nothing other than that.
44. Ernest Byner Browns/Redskins 1984-97
-2100 rushing attempts; 500 catches..
43. Herschel Walker Cowboys 1986-97
-Profiles similar to Byner, save that almost all of his good years were right out of the gate. Herschel left some legs behind at Georgia, right? He had 360 carries in '88 and was on fumes the rest of his career. Hard to be a running back, this is what I'm saying.
42. OJ Anderson Cardinals/Giants 1979-92
-2500 carries. He shoves it in Byner's face.
41. Jerome Bettis Steelers '93-05
-3500 carries. 3500 carries! 3500 carries!
40. Frank Gifford Giants '52-64
-Fewer than a thousand carries, but over 4 yards a carry, nearly 15 yards a catch, and with 8 good seasons it's going to be 20 more guys before we have someone to match that number.
39. Steve Van Buren Eagles '44-51
-See the Galloping Ghost.
38. Gale Sayers Bears '65-71
-Just didn't play enough to mark him higher, fewer than a thousand carries; they were good carries, he retired at 5 yards a run and his rookie year is the best year on the board so far, but there weren't enough of them to merit (for me) a HOF vote.
37. Ricky Williams Dolphins/Saints '99-11
-Right in line with the other modern players in this section, 4 yards a carry, some value catching the ball, 2500 carries, 5 good seasons. His 2002 is the current second best season on the board, he averaged over a hundred fifteen on the ground per game.
36. John L Williams Seahawks '86-95
Fullbacks!
35. Corey Dillon Bengals '97-06
4.3 yards/carry for his 2600 carry career.
34. Freeman McNeil Jets '81-92
-Light career comparatively, only 1700 carries - but 4.5/carry and 10 yds/catch.
33. Terrell Davis Broncos 1995-01
-A handful of fewer carries than McNeil, 4.6/carry and the two best seasons on the board so far, '98 and '97.
32. Eddie George Titans 1996-04
-Consistently good until a 400 carry season at age 27 and then he only hit 3.5 yards a carry one more time the rest of his career.
31. Fred Taylor Jaguars '98-02
-7 good years, the most on the list, and a 4.6 career per carry avg in 2500 attempts.
30. James Brooks Bengals '81-92
-Really similar to McNeil, number of carries+rate stats.
29. Larry Brown Redksins '69-76
-His '72 is the new fourth best season on the board.
28. Larry Csonka Dolphins '68-79
-Not as good as you think; all his value is in 4 seasons in his 20s. He's at this place in the list for the titles.
27. Warrick Dunn Falcons/Bucs '97-08
-7 good years, 2700 consistent carries.
26. Lydell Mitchell Colts '72-80
-The second best season on the board so far? Mitchell in '76.
The Top 25 Running Backs in NFL History.
25. Priest Holmes Chiefs/Ravens '97-07
-Priest has the best year on the board so far ('02) and the best 3 year run on the board (01-03) and almost nothing else. Running backs.
24. Chuck Foreman Vikings '73-80
-5 solid seasons to start his career (including 73 catches in '75) and not much after he turned 28.
23. Leroy Kelly Browns '64-73
4.2 yds/carry, 12 per catch.
22. Joe Perry 49ers '48-63
-Like Sayers with a thousand more carries, 5 yards/carry for his career.
21. Hugh McElhenny 49ers '52-64
-4.7 yards/carry and 12.3 per catch. That was Hugh McElhenny's career.
20. Roger Craig 49ers '83-93
-A little cute putting my 3 guys in a row, sure. Roger opened his career with 7 straight good seasons, hit 30 and had nothing left. His titles nudge him up to this spot. He's a hall of famer.
19. John Riggins Redskins '71-85
-Long career, a half dozen good seasons and the title.
18. Eric Dickerson Rams/Colts '83-93
-His profile and Riggins's are remarkably similar. Probably, given the SB, you should flip them.
17. Tiki Barber Giants 1997-2006
-Barber's last 3 seasons might be the best last 3 seasons of anyone ever who wasn't Jim Brown.
16. Curtis Martin Jets '95-05
-Martin was never great - but he had 10 good seasons; 3500 carries and almost all of them good.
15. Marcus Allen Raiders/Chiefs '82-97
-This is longevity based; after '85 Allen never really had another good year; he also rushed 380 times in '85 so while we think of Al Davis taking the ball away from Marcus as the pivotal event in his career, it could be that he wasn't the same back after '85.
14. Lenny Moore Colts '56-67
-4.8 yards per carry, 16.6 yards/catch.
13. OJ Simpson Bills '69-79
-The new best season on the board is Juice's '75. 16 scores, 5 and a half yards per carry, 15.2 yards a catch. That's even better than his '73 where he rushed for over 143 yards a game.
12. Ricky Watters Niners/Seahawks/Eagles '92-01
-Just a stud his whole career; 9 straight good to great years - his numbers are among the most consistent on the board. Add in the SB and that half a dozen touchdown playoff game - he's absolutely this good.
11. Jim Taylor Packers '58-67
-Led the league in yards from scrimmage as a fullback in '62. Fullbacks.
The 10 Greatest Running Backs in NFL History.
10. Thurman Thomas Bills '88-00
-Half dozen good years including leading the league in yards from scrimmage four straight seasons.
9. Tony Dorsett Cowboys '77-88
-8 good seasons; really similar to Watters, actually, with a tail to his career that Watters didn't have.
8. Edgerrin James Colts '99-09
-His first two years are the best first two years on the board. Like Dickerson's career, but Edge had a little more.
7. Franco Harris Steelers '72-84
-8 good seasons, his profile is in that Dorsett model, but with the extra titles.
6. Ladainian Tomlinson Chargers '01-
-8 good to great to ridiculous seasons to start his career; his 28 touchdown '06 is the new second best season on the board.
5. Emmitt Smith Cowboys 90-04
-Like Edge, 3 all time great seasons, and then you add the Franco profile underneath that. Like Franco+Dickerson.
4. Walter Payton Bears '75-87
-10 good seasons, had one great year, '77, and the SB.
3. Marshall Faulk Rams/Colts '94-05
-His '98-01 is the best stretch on the board; '99 is the new third best season on the board.
2. Barry Sanders Lions '89-98
-10 years, all of them good to great. An even 5 yds/carry for his career.
1. Jim Brown Browns '57-65
-9 years, not only all good, most of them great, his '64 is the new second best season for a running back ever.
Updated after the 2012 season.
Going to start with (1) all RBs with 100 AV (2) all RBs in the HOF and work from there.
There are 28 RBs with AV over 100. I'll set a minimum of 60 games started for the HOF backs.
50. Red Grange Bears 1925-34
-Tough to evaluate a leather helmet back, but there are a few at the bottom end of the list.
49. John Henry Johnson Steelers 1954-66
-We've got a few fullbacks on the list
48. Bronko Nagurski Bears 1930-43
-Both from the 30s and a fullback. Grange+Johnson=Bronko
47. Don Perkins Cowboys 1961-8
-More fullbacks! I heart fullbacks!
46. Lawrence McCutcheon Rams 1972-81
-This is what a running back's career looks like; five good seasons in his 20s and then nothing for a couple years until he got run out of the league. His '73 is the best season on the board so far.
45. Chuck Muncie Saints/Chargers 1976-84
-Boom or bust, really good in '79, '81, '82 and almost nothing other than that.
44. Ernest Byner Browns/Redskins 1984-97
-2100 rushing attempts; 500 catches..
43. Herschel Walker Cowboys 1986-97
-Profiles similar to Byner, save that almost all of his good years were right out of the gate. Herschel left some legs behind at Georgia, right? He had 360 carries in '88 and was on fumes the rest of his career. Hard to be a running back, this is what I'm saying.
42. OJ Anderson Cardinals/Giants 1979-92
-2500 carries. He shoves it in Byner's face.
41. Jerome Bettis Steelers '93-05
-3500 carries. 3500 carries! 3500 carries!
40. Frank Gifford Giants '52-64
-Fewer than a thousand carries, but over 4 yards a carry, nearly 15 yards a catch, and with 8 good seasons it's going to be 20 more guys before we have someone to match that number.
39. Steve Van Buren Eagles '44-51
-See the Galloping Ghost.
38. Gale Sayers Bears '65-71
-Just didn't play enough to mark him higher, fewer than a thousand carries; they were good carries, he retired at 5 yards a run and his rookie year is the best year on the board so far, but there weren't enough of them to merit (for me) a HOF vote.
37. Ricky Williams Dolphins/Saints '99-11
-Right in line with the other modern players in this section, 4 yards a carry, some value catching the ball, 2500 carries, 5 good seasons. His 2002 is the current second best season on the board, he averaged over a hundred fifteen on the ground per game.
36. John L Williams Seahawks '86-95
Fullbacks!
35. Corey Dillon Bengals '97-06
4.3 yards/carry for his 2600 carry career.
34. Freeman McNeil Jets '81-92
-Light career comparatively, only 1700 carries - but 4.5/carry and 10 yds/catch.
33. Terrell Davis Broncos 1995-01
-A handful of fewer carries than McNeil, 4.6/carry and the two best seasons on the board so far, '98 and '97.
32. Eddie George Titans 1996-04
-Consistently good until a 400 carry season at age 27 and then he only hit 3.5 yards a carry one more time the rest of his career.
31. Fred Taylor Jaguars '98-02
-7 good years, the most on the list, and a 4.6 career per carry avg in 2500 attempts.
30. James Brooks Bengals '81-92
-Really similar to McNeil, number of carries+rate stats.
29. Larry Brown Redksins '69-76
-His '72 is the new fourth best season on the board.
28. Larry Csonka Dolphins '68-79
-Not as good as you think; all his value is in 4 seasons in his 20s. He's at this place in the list for the titles.
27. Warrick Dunn Falcons/Bucs '97-08
-7 good years, 2700 consistent carries.
26. Lydell Mitchell Colts '72-80
-The second best season on the board so far? Mitchell in '76.
The Top 25 Running Backs in NFL History.
25. Priest Holmes Chiefs/Ravens '97-07
-Priest has the best year on the board so far ('02) and the best 3 year run on the board (01-03) and almost nothing else. Running backs.
24. Chuck Foreman Vikings '73-80
-5 solid seasons to start his career (including 73 catches in '75) and not much after he turned 28.
23. Leroy Kelly Browns '64-73
4.2 yds/carry, 12 per catch.
22. Joe Perry 49ers '48-63
-Like Sayers with a thousand more carries, 5 yards/carry for his career.
21. Hugh McElhenny 49ers '52-64
-4.7 yards/carry and 12.3 per catch. That was Hugh McElhenny's career.
20. Roger Craig 49ers '83-93
-A little cute putting my 3 guys in a row, sure. Roger opened his career with 7 straight good seasons, hit 30 and had nothing left. His titles nudge him up to this spot. He's a hall of famer.
19. John Riggins Redskins '71-85
-Long career, a half dozen good seasons and the title.
18. Eric Dickerson Rams/Colts '83-93
-His profile and Riggins's are remarkably similar. Probably, given the SB, you should flip them.
17. Tiki Barber Giants 1997-2006
-Barber's last 3 seasons might be the best last 3 seasons of anyone ever who wasn't Jim Brown.
16. Curtis Martin Jets '95-05
-Martin was never great - but he had 10 good seasons; 3500 carries and almost all of them good.
15. Marcus Allen Raiders/Chiefs '82-97
-This is longevity based; after '85 Allen never really had another good year; he also rushed 380 times in '85 so while we think of Al Davis taking the ball away from Marcus as the pivotal event in his career, it could be that he wasn't the same back after '85.
14. Lenny Moore Colts '56-67
-4.8 yards per carry, 16.6 yards/catch.
13. OJ Simpson Bills '69-79
-The new best season on the board is Juice's '75. 16 scores, 5 and a half yards per carry, 15.2 yards a catch. That's even better than his '73 where he rushed for over 143 yards a game.
12. Ricky Watters Niners/Seahawks/Eagles '92-01
-Just a stud his whole career; 9 straight good to great years - his numbers are among the most consistent on the board. Add in the SB and that half a dozen touchdown playoff game - he's absolutely this good.
11. Jim Taylor Packers '58-67
-Led the league in yards from scrimmage as a fullback in '62. Fullbacks.
The 10 Greatest Running Backs in NFL History.
10. Thurman Thomas Bills '88-00
-Half dozen good years including leading the league in yards from scrimmage four straight seasons.
9. Tony Dorsett Cowboys '77-88
-8 good seasons; really similar to Watters, actually, with a tail to his career that Watters didn't have.
8. Edgerrin James Colts '99-09
-His first two years are the best first two years on the board. Like Dickerson's career, but Edge had a little more.
7. Franco Harris Steelers '72-84
-8 good seasons, his profile is in that Dorsett model, but with the extra titles.
6. Ladainian Tomlinson Chargers '01-
-8 good to great to ridiculous seasons to start his career; his 28 touchdown '06 is the new second best season on the board.
5. Emmitt Smith Cowboys 90-04
-Like Edge, 3 all time great seasons, and then you add the Franco profile underneath that. Like Franco+Dickerson.
4. Walter Payton Bears '75-87
-10 good seasons, had one great year, '77, and the SB.
3. Marshall Faulk Rams/Colts '94-05
-His '98-01 is the best stretch on the board; '99 is the new third best season on the board.
2. Barry Sanders Lions '89-98
-10 years, all of them good to great. An even 5 yds/carry for his career.
1. Jim Brown Browns '57-65
-9 years, not only all good, most of them great, his '64 is the new second best season for a running back ever.
The 50 Greatest Quarterbacks in NFL History (Revised and Updated, 2019 edition)
Tuesday, February 14, 2012
Updated through 2019.
I've used some metrics, looked to combine regular season and post season, looked to incorporate peak and adjusted for era. They're better than any previous football list I've done, aside from the all time 47 man rosters, which I think are pretty good (the basketball and baseball lists are better) This is current through the 2015 postseason. I'll only list the teams with whom the players had significant careers, not every team for which they played.
I'm using two threshold metrics. To make the list you (1) needed to have an Approximate Value score of at least 100 (2) a passer rating index of at least 100 (3) 100 career starts at QB
Edit. It's 4 years later, a couple of things have happened (1) there are now 70 QB in NFL history with 100+ AV (2) the passer rating index career totals are gone. I'll make my own computation, it won't be perfect (my calculation will be lower) but a lot of guys are dying just short of my 100 computation and that's what I'm looking for.
I recognize that there's not really a reason why an approximate value of 97 (Culpepper, the closest to 100) or an index rating of really any of the guys who got kicked out of the list for being in the 90s should be eliminated, save that you need to find a way to make it manageable.
Anyway, as of the end of 2018 - that number is 46. The top AV QB not on the list is Eli, he was on the list three years ago when I last did this, but has given up enough of the passer rating index subsequent that he's fallen below 100.
The next step was the pre 1960 quarterbacks for whom there isn't an approximate value score. The threshold here was Hall of Fame. That gave us 13 more names. From which I cut the guys from the 20s for whom there just aren't really good stats, and I cut the guys with fewer than 60 career starts.
That adds six guys. That's 52.
Not here, given the parameters, are Plunkett/Namath/Eli and my inclination is they're all top 50 all time QB.
Here are the 50 best QB in NFL history.
Just missing:
Jim Harbaugh Bears 1987-00
-101 AV, 100 Rate+ Harbaugh had one fantastic season, 1995, where he had a passer rating index of 132 (essentially means he was 32% better than the average QB in 1995). He was never really bad - and that's crucial here - missing from this list are Plunkett/Namath/Eli - those bad seasons really drive down that career passer rating index and as I've set 100 as the minimum, Harbaugh is who hangs onto this last spot on the list.
Trent Green Chiefs 1997-08
-111 AV, 102.1 Rate+ Green hits the total on both metrics, had more good years than bad. Has no postseason record to speak of nor rushing ability. His strong early 30s Chiefs career gets him here.
And here's the Top 50
50. Jeff Garcia 49ers 1999-2011
-104AV, 108 Rate+ An interesting profile, didn't play a down before was 29, his rate+ in 2000 was 127, making him 27% above average; Garcia also adds a strong rushing profile and a gets a tick of a playoff boost.
49. Matthew Stafford Lions 2009-
-118 AV, 102.9 Rate+ After the 2018 season I wrote that my expectation is Stafford would not retire on this list, but that seems less certain now.
-105 AV, 105.4 Rate+ He's Green but won that Super Bowl, his career playoff quarterback rating was over 90, that's a pretty solid plus and you like him here.
47. Craig Morton Cowboys 1965-82
-115 AV, 107.8 Rate+ Morton was never bad (except for the Super Bowl, where he was atrocious) and closed his career with five straight seasons above 100 passer rating index.
46. Bobby Layne Lions/Steelers 1948-62
-101.2 Rate+ 9 good seasons but none above 117 rate+, he's the first of the 6 pre modern QB
45. Mark Brunell Jaguars 1994-2011
-120 AV, 106.8 Rate+ Really a model of consistency; only one bad season his entire career and no seasons above a 117 rate+; Brunell was basically 151 starting games of good.
44. Rich Gannon Raiders/Vikings 1987-04
-120 AV, 105.9 Rate+ Gannon had four seasons at 120 Rate+ or above and added value with his legs.
43. Phil Simms Giants 1979-93
-118 AV, 106 Rate+ From his third season forward Simms was good every year, only a couple of seasons above 120 but when you add in a top 5 all time SB performance he gets this slot.
42. Ken Stabler Raiders 1970-84
-119 AV, 105.4 Rate+ Snake was old, didn't hit the league until he was 27, tore it up for half a dozen years including a SB title and then was just a guy the rest of his career.
41. Tony Romo Cowboys 2006-
-116 AV, 114 Rate+ Romo's separate from the Ryan/Cutler group in that he's had a couple of really good years, in 2014 his rate plus was 134, that's really strong - and he's separate, say from Carson Palmer who also had a couple of those years but has thrown in multiple subpar years that Romo just doesn't have.
40. Kurt Warner Rams/Cardinals 1998-09
-113 AV, 112.1 Rate+, three super elite seasons to start his career and then solid years in his 30s; picks up points for his postseason record, 9-4, quarterback rating over 100, and as of the end of 2015, 2 of the 15 top quarterbacked games in SB history.
39. John Hadl Chargers 1962-77
-143 AV, 104 Rate+ Very similar to Krieg, lot of starts, mostly good to really good - it's a long, solid if unspectacular career.
38. Dave Krieg Seahawks 1980-98
-138 AV, 109.8 Rate+, 175 starts and never had a season with a Rate+ below 92 (and that came when he was 37). Not a great playoff performer.
37. Boomer Esiason Bengals 1984-97
-136 AV, 105.2 Rate+, very similar to Palmer
36. Carson Palmer Bengals 2004-17
-142 AV, 102.8 Rate+ couple of big years amidst a career of largely good seasons, a subpar playoff record.
35. Sid Luckman Bears 1939-50
-120.5 Rate+ Okay, hard to compare the leather helmet quarterbacks with modern era players, Luckman was the man, an entire career that approximated Garcia's best season in comparison to the rest of the league. Challenge to Luckman, beyond his playing in the 40s, is he only started 62 games in the NFL. Most of them were terrific for the era, but 62 games 70 years ago is tough to rank higher. My inclination is he's permanently #35.
34. Roman Gabriel Rams 1962-77
-131 AV, 106.8 Rate+ Fits that Krieg/Hadl profile of a ton of good, consistent seasons and he added value with his legs.
33. Steve McNair Titans 1995-07
-126 AV, 104.5 Rate+ 5.4 yards per rush for his career and 37 touchdowns on the ground help make up for that Rate+, not a good playoff performer.
32. YA Tittle 1948-64 49ers/Giants
-110.4 Rate+, so many good seasons, 13 with a rate+ over 100, was playing great football at 37 years old. Bad playoff performer, never won a game, rating under 35.
31. Norm Van Brocklin Rams 1949-60
-116.3 Rate+ Loaded up on good years at the start of his career, not great in the playoffs.
30. Randall Cunningham Eagles 1985-01
-134 AV, 100.1 Rate+ One year over 120 and then the big year with the Vikings where he went for a 134 rate+. The rushing is a big plus, 6.4 yards a carry and 35 scores.
29. Donovan McNabb Eagles 1999-2011
-138 AV, 105.3 Rate+almost all good seasons, one really excellent one with a 131 rate plus, a lot of value with his legs, 29 touchdowns and a 5.6 yards/carry average. Good enough in the playoffs with 9 wins and a rating at 80.
28. Jim Kelly Bills 1986-96
-132 AV, 111.2 Rate+ Nothing but good seasons until his final campaign, one over 120 and one over 130. The postseason doesn't help him a lot with a quarterback rating just over 70, the four SB losses were all bad performances.
27. Troy Aikman Cowboys 1989-00
-122 AV, 104.5 Rate+ Only two seasons above 120, it's a solid not a spectacular profile. Then the playoffs, 11 wins, an 88 passer rating, the 3 SBs, which is the first time we've seen that number on the list. One of those games was great.
26. Russell Wilson Seahawks 2012-
-129 AV, 117.2 Rate+, through 2019, all of Wilson's seasons are above 100 passer rating index, including 2015 where he was 131. Like Warner/Simms/Stabler/Theismann, he adds that SB.
(The 25 Greatest Quarterbacks in NFL History)
25. Sammy Baugh Redskins 1937-52
-121.3 Rate+ Same deal as Luckman but he started 21 more games. Going to make him permanently #25
24. Bob Griese Dolphins 1967-80
-139 AV, 114.2 Rate+ Only 2 seasons below 100, 4 of his full time seasons above 120, wasnt a great playoff quarterback, just a little under 70 passer rating. Got those two rings though.
23. Len Dawson Chiefs 1957-75
-144 AV, 118.9 Rate+ Nothing but good seasons his whole career including 4 that topped 130.
22. Sonny Jurgensen Redskins/Eagles 1957-74
-139 AV, 113 Rate+ Bunch of good seasons, even as a part timer late in his career, tack some points onto that AV for the pre 1960 work.
21. Bart Starr Packers 1956-71
-114 AV, 112.3 rate+, 11 good seasons, 3 over 120, 1 over 140, 9-1 in the playoffs with a quarterback rating over 100 and five titles. That's a big game quarterback. Add that pre 60s AV.
20. Roger Staubach Cowboys 1969-79
-128 AV, 118.6 Rate+ over 120 twice, 130 twice and 140 once, an elite quarterback up until the final snap but only started 114 games, not beginning his career until 28. 11 playoff wins and two titles but only a passer rating in the 70s for the postseason. Staubach was strong in the SB.
19. Terry Bradshaw Steelers 1970-83
-137 AV 102.4 rate+ Not a ton here in the regular season, only two years above 120. 14 playoff wins and a passer rating of 83 and a bunch of titles.
18. Warren Moon Oilers 1984-00
-166 AV, 105.3 Rate+ Moon rarely had a bad year but only one above 120 rate+. 3-7 playoff record doesn't do him a ton of favors.
17. Dan Fouts Chargers 1973-87
-162 AV, 109.4 Rate+ 3 seasons over 120, his and Anderson's careers are pretty similar. Not great in the playoffs, a passer rating of 70.
16. Ken Anderson Bengals 1971-86
-161 AV, 113.7 Rate+ 2 seasons over 120, two over 130 and a 90+ quarterback rating in the playoffs.
15. Matt Ryan Falcons 2008-
-170 AV, 109.6 rate+ . In the middle of this run of guys who didn't win titles.
14. Philip Rivers Chargers 2004-
-204 AV, 111.3 Rate+ that's a ton of AV, just the sheer volume, the longevity of the contemporary QB has allowed them to accumulate an unprecedented amount of value.
13. Ben Roethlisberger Steelers 2004-
-186 AV, 108.8 Rate+ really strong, 4 seasons at 120 rate+ or above and a 5th at 130 with only two subpar years through 2015. He's been a solid playoff quarterback, 11 wins and a rating above 80, his SB performances haven't been good, but he does have 2 rings.
12. Johnny Unitas Colts 1956-73
-145 AV, 109.6 Rate+ A dozen good seasons, 5 in the 120s, one in the 130s, 3 titles but a sub 70 playoff rating. Tack some AV for those pre60s seasons.
11. John Elway Broncos 1983-98
-203 AV, 103.9 Rate+ If you think its a low Rate+ it is, a half dozen subpar years, only one year above 120. Added 33 with his legs. 14 playoff wins, which is a bunch, rating was a tick below 80. Won the two titles but was not a great SB performer.
(The Top 10 Quarterbacks in NFL History)
10. Aaron Rodgers QB Packers 2007-
-184 AV, 120.1 Rate+, 4 seasons of rate+ over 120, one over 130, one at 149, every season of his career a good one, a playoff quarterback rating of nearly 100, one of the best quarterbacked games in SB history.
9 Otto Graham Browns 1946-55
-128.7 Rate+ never had a bad year, 2 over 120, 2 over 130, 2 over 140. 7 titles, but a playoff quarterback rating under 70.
8. Dan Marino Dolphins 1983-99
-216 AV, 113.8 Rate+ Did you know his middle name is Constantine? And Unitas too? Creepy. One subpar year, his last, at the age of 38, 3 in the 120s and 1 in the 140s, his regular season profile looks a lot like Brady's, say a tick below. Not much help in the playoffs, rating in the high 70s, below .500 record.
7. Fran Tarkenton Vikings 1961-78
-236 AV, 113.8 Rate+ And the legs, 32 scores and 5.4 yards a carry. A little better than Marino, one subpar season, 4 seasons in the 120s, 1 in the 130s. The playoffs were not good, rating under 60. A ton of bad SB losses.
6. Steve Young 49ers 1985-99
-171 AV, 123.4 Rate+ In his full seasons as a starter, crossed 120 twice, 130 twice, 140 twice, added a bunch of rushing value 43 touchdowns, playoff rating in the mid 80s, his SB game was crazy, the second best of all time. He's got the highest passer rating index for modern QB - plus all those yards on the ground.
5. Joe Montana 49ers 1979-94
-164 AV, 122.5 Rate+ Not quite as good as Young as a regular season quarterback, never had a bad season, 4 in the 120s, 2 in the 130s, 1 in the 140s -- and then came the playoffs, 16 wins, a quarterback rating in the mid 90s, 5 game winning playoff drives, the 4 titles and the best Super Bowl career in NFL history, there just is not a player with this level of SB performance. I'm a Montana guy; if you ask me who I want, I'd say Joe - but the AV difference between he and the top 4 is just too large to move him up this list. He just didn't have the regular season volume that the top 4 had.
4. Brett Favre Packers 1991-10
--255 AV, 109 Rate+ was still great even at 40, with a 129 rate+, only had a couple other seasons in the 120s and 1 in the 130s. Good in the playoffs, mid 80s rating, solid SB.
3. Drew Brees Saints 2001-
-267 AV, 117.2 5 seasons of 130+ rate+ as of 2019, only 1 season below 110 since he turned 25. In 2018, at 39 years old, he led the NFL passer rating index. His playoff quarterback rating is over 100. Breathing down Manning's neck.
2. Peyton Manning Colts 1998-2015
-271 AV, 117 Rate+, 2 subpar seasons, the first and last, 7 over 120, 1 over 130, and in 2004 a 151 Rate+. Good in the playoffs, a rating in the high 80s, and he won the two titles, despite never having a good SB performance.
1. Tom Brady Patriots 2000-
-280 AV, 116 Rate + one year above 120, two above 130, one above 140. A good playoff quarterback, a good SB quarterback, and obviously, all the titles
The Weekly Tendown February 5-11 2012(The Newt or Schrute Edition)
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Dear Internet:
To the dude perched on St Rte 7 in Royal Palm Beach Florida with the Newt Gingrich sign on his car.
The Gingrich tax plan would add 1.3 trillion to the deficit in just 2015.
Why?
Because the top 1% would get an average tax cut of $343,3993 in 2015.
So, while I'm sure the top 1% appreciates your carrying their water, perhaps you want to reconsider your political analysis.
113 is here. This is Tendown 114.
1. Sorry
I was wrong about the Super Bowl. I expected the member of Public Enemy that Tom Coughlin would be hugging post-game would be Professor Griff. Fight the powers that be, Coach.
As a makeup, consider investing on Adele for Record of the Year, which you can still get at the not wholly unreasonable price of -500 (unlike Album and Song which are too expensive to seriously consider). When I first started talking about the Grammys, the price was a little better, and a week ago it was still -400 (if you can find a parlay for all 3 awards, consider it).
I don't know the over/under on Whitney references, but I'm guessing none will be as fun as Al Sharpton's being asked his favorite Whitney Houston song last night in the immediate aftermath of her death. That's how the news works; celebrity has what is almost certainly a drug related death - the obvious go to is Al Sharpton to hum a few bars of "My Name is Not Susan."
2. Brian Sabean is Bad at His Job.
Keith Law (behind the firewall) ranked every organization's farm system - SFG is 26th.:
The Giants don't go much over MLB's recommended draft bonuses, never seem to acquire any prospects in trades and haven't had success on the international front yet.
He then ranked the top 100 prospects in baseball; the Giants have one, Gary Brown, and then there's Zack Wheeler:
Wheeler was stolen from the Giants for two months of Carlos Beltran's services in a deadline deal that should benefit the Mets for much of this decade.
If only this could have been seen in advance. Here's me from July.
I'd rather be able to say, as most Giants mainstream analysts have, "this is a great trade." If it were someone else's team, I'd rather be able to say "short sighted losers, giving away the future for an over the hill borderline Hall of Famer today."
3. Liberté, égalité, fraternité
So, my best opportunity at a really good full time teaching position in the fall fizzled away this week; so as I write this, no one in my house has health insurance.
Which is cool with this week's big primary winner, Rick Santorum. As he not only thinks any movement away from health insurance existing only through full time employment to be bad social policy - he sees it as a step closer to the guillotine
It was a secular revolution on which we relied on the goodness of each other. This is the left’s view of where America should go. And of course where did France go? To the guillotine. To tyranny. If there are no rights that government needs to respect, then what we see with ObamaCare is just the beginning of what government will do to you.
No birth control. No heath insurance. Santorum 2012.
4. The Best Piece You'll Read this Week:
An Excerpt from Thomas Frank's new book: Pity the Billionaire.
5. The Best Tumblr You'll See This Week:
What the F*** is Michael Jordan Wearing?
6. The Best Piece You'll Ever Read About a Revolting Former SNL Castmember.
It's Victoria Jackson.
7. Cee Lo is a Bond Villain
He's an internationally known singer deviously attempting to scrub all anti-establishment political messages from iconic songs.
8. I Watch Wrestling
I began my look at 2012 professional wrestling this week by watching the balance of my 2011 matches.
Here were the 4 star matches:
Mine is a minority opinion on Richards/Edwards from Final Battle; I'm largely disinterested in crowd reaction; a meal you don't like doesn't impact my evaluation of the meal. It was a helluva match and the current clubhouse leader in the race for 2012 Match of the Year.
9. Here's Greenwald
It's the Newt or Schrute Game.
To the dude perched on St Rte 7 in Royal Palm Beach Florida with the Newt Gingrich sign on his car.
The Gingrich tax plan would add 1.3 trillion to the deficit in just 2015.
Why?
Because the top 1% would get an average tax cut of $343,3993 in 2015.
So, while I'm sure the top 1% appreciates your carrying their water, perhaps you want to reconsider your political analysis.
113 is here. This is Tendown 114.
1. Sorry
I was wrong about the Super Bowl. I expected the member of Public Enemy that Tom Coughlin would be hugging post-game would be Professor Griff. Fight the powers that be, Coach.
As a makeup, consider investing on Adele for Record of the Year, which you can still get at the not wholly unreasonable price of -500 (unlike Album and Song which are too expensive to seriously consider). When I first started talking about the Grammys, the price was a little better, and a week ago it was still -400 (if you can find a parlay for all 3 awards, consider it).
I don't know the over/under on Whitney references, but I'm guessing none will be as fun as Al Sharpton's being asked his favorite Whitney Houston song last night in the immediate aftermath of her death. That's how the news works; celebrity has what is almost certainly a drug related death - the obvious go to is Al Sharpton to hum a few bars of "My Name is Not Susan."
2. Brian Sabean is Bad at His Job.
Keith Law (behind the firewall) ranked every organization's farm system - SFG is 26th.:
The Giants don't go much over MLB's recommended draft bonuses, never seem to acquire any prospects in trades and haven't had success on the international front yet.
He then ranked the top 100 prospects in baseball; the Giants have one, Gary Brown, and then there's Zack Wheeler:
Wheeler was stolen from the Giants for two months of Carlos Beltran's services in a deadline deal that should benefit the Mets for much of this decade.
If only this could have been seen in advance. Here's me from July.
I'd rather be able to say, as most Giants mainstream analysts have, "this is a great trade." If it were someone else's team, I'd rather be able to say "short sighted losers, giving away the future for an over the hill borderline Hall of Famer today."
3. Liberté, égalité, fraternité
So, my best opportunity at a really good full time teaching position in the fall fizzled away this week; so as I write this, no one in my house has health insurance.
Which is cool with this week's big primary winner, Rick Santorum. As he not only thinks any movement away from health insurance existing only through full time employment to be bad social policy - he sees it as a step closer to the guillotine
It was a secular revolution on which we relied on the goodness of each other. This is the left’s view of where America should go. And of course where did France go? To the guillotine. To tyranny. If there are no rights that government needs to respect, then what we see with ObamaCare is just the beginning of what government will do to you.
No birth control. No heath insurance. Santorum 2012.
4. The Best Piece You'll Read this Week:
An Excerpt from Thomas Frank's new book: Pity the Billionaire.
5. The Best Tumblr You'll See This Week:
What the F*** is Michael Jordan Wearing?
6. The Best Piece You'll Ever Read About a Revolting Former SNL Castmember.
It's Victoria Jackson.
7. Cee Lo is a Bond Villain
8. I Watch Wrestling
I began my look at 2012 professional wrestling this week by watching the balance of my 2011 matches.
Here were the 4 star matches:
Dec BJ Sekimoto/Okabayashi v. Suwama/Soya 4
Dec DG Yoshino v Ricochet 4
Dec DG Hulk/Tozawa v. Shingo/Yamato 4 ½
Dec DG Cima v Mochizuki 4
Dec NOAH Go v Aoki 4
Dec ROH Steen v Corino 4
Dec ROH Richards v. Edwards 4 ¾
With a typically on target broadside at those on the left who support Obama's continued assault on civil liberties.
10. I Got 6 out of 10.
That's all for this time. I'll be back next time. If there is a next time...
Your pal,
Jim
The 25 Best Professional Wrestling Matches of 2012/Best WWE/TNA Matches of 2012
Friday, February 10, 2012
My Top 25 Matches of 2011 and my choice for the best wrestler of the year are here.
This will be an ongoing list of every 4 1/2+ star match in the world I see in 2012; I use Meltzer's calendar, so 2012 actually starts in December, 2011, and those are the matches I'm watching right now (I'm through November, 2012 I'll edit all year long). I'll also keep a running total of any 4 star matches from WWE and TNA.
Based on the past few years, I'll see just short of 50 matches that will make this list.
Edit - I'm at the end of the year. Here's the 25 Best Matches This Year and the Best Wrestler of 2012.
1. Match of the Year: Kota Ibushi (The Wrestler of the Year) v. Kenny Omega (DDT August) 5
2. Richards v. Elgin (ROH March) 5
3. Richards v. Elgin (PWG September) 4 3/4
4. Omega v. Kai (AJPW May) 4 3/4
5. Low Ki/BxB Hulk/Tozawa v. Pac/Mochizuki/Ricochet (DGUSA March) 4 3/4
6. Kotaro/Aoki v. Marvin/Crazy (NOAH, March) 4 3/4
7. Richards/O'Reilly v. Edwards/Cole (March, ROH) 4 3/4
8. Richards v. Edwards (December, 2011 ROH) 4 3/4
9. Morishima v. Go (NOAH July) 4 1/2
10. Ibushi v. Generico (DDT September) 4 1/2
11. Ibushi v. Generico (DDT October) 4 1/2
12. Tanahashi v. Suzuki (NJPW October) 4 1/2
13. Yoshino/Gargano v. Fox/DKid (Oct DG) 4 1/2
14. CIMA/Fox v. Ricochet/Swann (July DGUSA) 4 1/2
15. Devitt v. Pac (NJPW, June) 4 1/2
16. Ibushi v. Generico (The Feud of the Year) (DDT May) 4 1/2
17. Bryan v. Punk (May, WWE) 4 1/2
18. Okada v. Naito (March, New Japan) 4 1/2
19. Tanahashi v. Okada (June New Japan) 4 1/2
20. Nakajima/Kensuke v. Otani/Hashimoto (Zero One, March) 4 1/2
21. Hulk/Tozawa v. Shingo/Yamato (December, 2011 Dragon Gate) 4 1/2
22. Steen v. Elgin (October ROH) 4 1/2
23. Nakajima v Tanaka (Diamond Ring, September) 4 1/2
24. Generico/Yoshino/Pac v. Tozawa/Steen/Super Dragon (Jan PWG) 4 1/2
25. Steen v. Generico (ROH March) 4 1/2
Generico v. Callihan (Evolve May) 4 1/2
These are the four star matches from WWE/TNA:
1. Daniel Bryan v. CM Punk (May WWE) 4 1/2
2. Kurt Angle/AJ Styles v. Chris Daniels/Frankie Kazarian (June TNA) 4
3. Brock Lesnar v. John Cena (April WWE) 4
4. Jeff Hardy v. Austin Aries (October TNA) 4
5. CM Punk v. Chris Jericho (April WWE) 4
6. James Storm v. Bobby Roode (Ocrtober TNA) 4
7. Bobby Roode v. RVD (May TNA) 4
8. Kurt Angle v. AJ Styles (May TNA) 4
9. Kurt Angle v. Jeff Hardy (April TNA) 4
10. Undertaker v. HHH (April WWE) 4
11. The Shield v. Bryan/Kane/Ryback (Dec WWE) 4
12. Austin Aries v. Jeff Hardy (Nov TNA) 4
13. CM Punk v. John Cena (Sept WWE) 4
14. AJ Styles v. Chris Daniels (July TNA) 4
15. Kurt Angle/AJ Styles v. Chris Daniels/Frankie Kazarian (Sept TNA) 4
16. AJ Styles v. Chris Daniels (Dec TNA)
17. Chavo Guerrero/Hernandez v. AJ Styles/Kurt Angle v. Chris Daniels/Frankie Kazarian (Oct TNA) 4
18. Austin Aries v. Bobby Roode (July TNA) 4
This will be an ongoing list of every 4 1/2+ star match in the world I see in 2012; I use Meltzer's calendar, so 2012 actually starts in December, 2011, and those are the matches I'm watching right now (I'm through November, 2012 I'll edit all year long). I'll also keep a running total of any 4 star matches from WWE and TNA.
Based on the past few years, I'll see just short of 50 matches that will make this list.
Edit - I'm at the end of the year. Here's the 25 Best Matches This Year and the Best Wrestler of 2012.
1. Match of the Year: Kota Ibushi (The Wrestler of the Year) v. Kenny Omega (DDT August) 5
2. Richards v. Elgin (ROH March) 5
3. Richards v. Elgin (PWG September) 4 3/4
4. Omega v. Kai (AJPW May) 4 3/4
5. Low Ki/BxB Hulk/Tozawa v. Pac/Mochizuki/Ricochet (DGUSA March) 4 3/4
6. Kotaro/Aoki v. Marvin/Crazy (NOAH, March) 4 3/4
7. Richards/O'Reilly v. Edwards/Cole (March, ROH) 4 3/4
8. Richards v. Edwards (December, 2011 ROH) 4 3/4
9. Morishima v. Go (NOAH July) 4 1/2
10. Ibushi v. Generico (DDT September) 4 1/2
11. Ibushi v. Generico (DDT October) 4 1/2
12. Tanahashi v. Suzuki (NJPW October) 4 1/2
13. Yoshino/Gargano v. Fox/DKid (Oct DG) 4 1/2
14. CIMA/Fox v. Ricochet/Swann (July DGUSA) 4 1/2
15. Devitt v. Pac (NJPW, June) 4 1/2
16. Ibushi v. Generico (The Feud of the Year) (DDT May) 4 1/2
17. Bryan v. Punk (May, WWE) 4 1/2
18. Okada v. Naito (March, New Japan) 4 1/2
19. Tanahashi v. Okada (June New Japan) 4 1/2
20. Nakajima/Kensuke v. Otani/Hashimoto (Zero One, March) 4 1/2
21. Hulk/Tozawa v. Shingo/Yamato (December, 2011 Dragon Gate) 4 1/2
22. Steen v. Elgin (October ROH) 4 1/2
23. Nakajima v Tanaka (Diamond Ring, September) 4 1/2
24. Generico/Yoshino/Pac v. Tozawa/Steen/Super Dragon (Jan PWG) 4 1/2
25. Steen v. Generico (ROH March) 4 1/2
Generico v. Callihan (Evolve May) 4 1/2
These are the four star matches from WWE/TNA:
1. Daniel Bryan v. CM Punk (May WWE) 4 1/2
2. Kurt Angle/AJ Styles v. Chris Daniels/Frankie Kazarian (June TNA) 4
3. Brock Lesnar v. John Cena (April WWE) 4
4. Jeff Hardy v. Austin Aries (October TNA) 4
5. CM Punk v. Chris Jericho (April WWE) 4
6. James Storm v. Bobby Roode (Ocrtober TNA) 4
7. Bobby Roode v. RVD (May TNA) 4
8. Kurt Angle v. AJ Styles (May TNA) 4
9. Kurt Angle v. Jeff Hardy (April TNA) 4
10. Undertaker v. HHH (April WWE) 4
11. The Shield v. Bryan/Kane/Ryback (Dec WWE) 4
12. Austin Aries v. Jeff Hardy (Nov TNA) 4
13. CM Punk v. John Cena (Sept WWE) 4
14. AJ Styles v. Chris Daniels (July TNA) 4
15. Kurt Angle/AJ Styles v. Chris Daniels/Frankie Kazarian (Sept TNA) 4
16. AJ Styles v. Chris Daniels (Dec TNA)
17. Chavo Guerrero/Hernandez v. AJ Styles/Kurt Angle v. Chris Daniels/Frankie Kazarian (Oct TNA) 4
18. Austin Aries v. Bobby Roode (July TNA) 4
My 2012 NBA All Star Rosters
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
As of Tuesday morning, we're still only 2/3 of the way through the first half of the season, so by the time we actually get to the midpoint, these rosters could change. But since starters have already been named and reserves are coming Thursday, it's time for my all star rosters. The primary metrics I'm using are Hollinger's and Win Shares.
East
C Howard
F Bosh
F James
G Rose
G L. Williams
C Chandler
F Anderson
F Monroe
G Jennings
G Johnson
F Iguodala
F Boozer
Obviously a little big heavy, Irving/Wade/Deron Williams are just behind Boozer and that would be worth a revist as we get closer to 33 games in. Anderson/Monroe would both be defensible over Bosh as a starter; the off guard spot is obviously weird with Wade's injury.
West
Griffin/Pau Gasol/Millsap are close; there's no crime in leaving any off - Nash and Lowry are right behind Parker/Westbrook. Gallinari got hurt last night or he'd be in this backup mix also. I think the West starters are fairly clear.
East
C Howard
F Bosh
F James
G Rose
G L. Williams
C Chandler
F Anderson
F Monroe
G Jennings
G Johnson
F Iguodala
F Boozer
Obviously a little big heavy, Irving/Wade/Deron Williams are just behind Boozer and that would be worth a revist as we get closer to 33 games in. Anderson/Monroe would both be defensible over Bosh as a starter; the off guard spot is obviously weird with Wade's injury.
West
C MGasol
F Love
F Durant
G Paul
G Bryant
C Bynum
F Aldridge
F Millsap
G Harden
G Westbrook
F PGasol
G Parker
Griffin/Pau Gasol/Millsap are close; there's no crime in leaving any off - Nash and Lowry are right behind Parker/Westbrook. Gallinari got hurt last night or he'd be in this backup mix also. I think the West starters are fairly clear.
Top 40 Seasons in Baseball History
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
MLB Network did a countdown of the 40 best seasons in baseball history; they only considered 1940 forward, for purposes of highlights, one assumes. This is that list, next to each player is the combination of their WARP/WAR for the season (Davenport+B-Ref) and then a player from the same year with a higher number (meaning a better year) if that player can be found. Additionally, if that player had a better season elsewhere, I'll note that too. A total of 16 is an MVPquality season, 18 is an elite season, 20 is an inner circle season. No one under 18 should be on this list. In fact, I'll say no one under 19 should be on this list. If you divide all of the below totals by 2 you'd get the wins above replacement for that season, I just don't feel like doing that last step. Think of it as your interaction with the text. I think MLB put this list together without benefit of the advanced metrics group they're using now to put together the best current active players.
40. Fred Lynn 1975 (13.9) He was better in 1979 (15.5). Better, and not by a little bit, in '75 was Joe Morgan (23).
39. Al Rosen 1953 (19.4). This was Rosen's career year; he and Robin Roberts each were 19.4.
38. Alex Rodriguez 1996 (17.5). His best year was 2000 (20). Better in 1996 was Barry Bonds (21.3)
37. Tommy Holmes 1945 (15.1) His career year. Better in '45 was Hal Newhouser (19.9)
36. Albert Pujols 2003 (20.3). His career year. If you hit 20, it's silly to say anyone was better, unless we have a 22-23, but Bonds was 20.6 in 2003.
35. Ken Griffey 1997 (18.2) Griffey's career year. Better in '97 was Roger Clemens (22.1)
34. Jim Rice 1978 (13.7) Rice's career year. Phil Niekro was better (17)
33. Hank Greenberg 1940 (13.1) He had better seasons before '40, and also one after this in '46 (14.8). Bob Feller was 19.6.
32. Rod Carew 1977 (18.9). Carew's career year. He was the best player in '77.
31. Robin Yount 1982 (20.1). Yount's career year. He was the best player in '82.
30. Eric Gagne 2003 (13.2). His best season and a really good season for a closer. Pujols was better and Bonds was better than Pujols.
29. Mark Fidrych 1976 (16.3) His career year. Morgan (17.9) was better.
28. Hank Aaron 1957 (14.5). Had at least a half dozen better years than this. Mickey Mantle (22.1) had a better '57.
27. Nolan Ryan 1973 (15.9). His best year. Joe Morgan (19.9) had a better year.
26. Sammy Sosa 2001 (22.4) His best year. Bonds was better and at 24.8, the current best year on the board.
25. Vida Blue 1971 (16.6) Vida's best year. Fergie Jenkins (19.8) was better.
24. Roger Maris 1961 (10.6) Maris was better in '60 (13.5). Mantle (20.1) was considerably better in '61.
23. Joe Morgan 1976 See #29.
22. Willie Mays 1955 (18.8) Mays had a half dozen better years, but he was also the best player in '55
21. Fernando Valenzuela 1981 (12.7). His best year; Schmidt (16.7) was better.
20. Mark McGwire 1998 (17.3). Mac's best year. Bonds (19.1) it shouldn't surprise you, was better.
19. Roger Clemens 1986 (17.1). Clemens had a couple of better years, his best was in Toronto (see #35). Teddy Higuera had about the same year (17.2)
18. Dwight Gooden 1985 (25). Not only Gooden's best year and the best year for '85 - it's the new best year on the board.
17. Ron Guidry 1978 (17.8). His best season - he was the best player in '78.
16. Stan Musial 1948 (21.2) Musial's best season. He was the best player in '48.
15. Frank Robinson 1966 (17). His best season was '62 (17.7). Koufax (21.5) was the best player in '66.
14. Greg Maddux 1995 (19.5). His best season. He was baseball's best player.
13. Mickey Mantle 1956 (22.4). His best season. He was baseball's best player.
12. Denny McLain 1968 (14.3). His best season. The best player in '68 is still to come on the list.
11. Carl Yastrzemski 1967 (21.5). Yaz's best season. He was best player in '68.
10. Joe Dimaggio 1941 (19.2). His best season. Best player in '41 is a couple of spots away.
9. Randy Johnson 2001 (15.7). Had a couple of seasons a bit better, like '02 for example. See #26 for the best season in '01.
8. Ted Williams 1941 (21.3) He had a better year in '46 (22.8). He was baseball's best in '41.
7. Orel Hershiser 1988 (17.1). His best year. He was baseball's best.
6. Sandy Koufax 1965 (17.9) Was better in both '66 and '63. Mays was best (21.5).
5. Pedro Martinez 1999 (18.2). His best year was the next one, (21.1). He was best player in '99.
4. Steve Carlton 1972 (25). His best year, the best year in '72 and tied with Gooden as the best year on the list.
3. Bob Gibson 1968 (24.9). His best year, he was best in '68.
2. Jackie Robinson 1949 (20.2) His best year, he was best in '49.
1. Barry Bonds 2004 (23.6). His best year was '01, Barry was best in '04.
If you're thinking about all of baseball history - here is a list of the inner circle (20+) seasons. All of them after '40 could have been on this list. There are 42 of those inner circle seasons below; were you doing a list of the 40 best seasons after 1940, you'd start with those. There are 90 seasons total listed below, I could probably do a 100 best seasons in baseball history post someday.
Ruth: 1919, 1920, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1926, 1927, 1931
Bonds: 1992, 1993, 1996, 2001, 2002, 2004
Mays: 1954, 1958, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965
Walter Johnson: 1910, 1912, 1913, 1914, 1915
Cobb: 1910, 1911, 1917
Clemens: 1990, 1997
Wagner: 1908
Musial: 1948
Williams: 1941, 1942, 1946
Henderson: 1990
Hornsby: 1921, 1924, 1929
Collins: 1913
Gehrig: 1927
Seaver: 1971
Alexander: 1915, 1916, 1920
Mantle: 1956, 1957
Morgan: 1975
Ripken: 1984, 1991
Mathewson: 1908, 1909
Carlton: 1972
Perry: 1972
Gibson: 1968, 1969
Foxx: 1932
Yaz: 1967
40. Fred Lynn 1975 (13.9) He was better in 1979 (15.5). Better, and not by a little bit, in '75 was Joe Morgan (23).
39. Al Rosen 1953 (19.4). This was Rosen's career year; he and Robin Roberts each were 19.4.
38. Alex Rodriguez 1996 (17.5). His best year was 2000 (20). Better in 1996 was Barry Bonds (21.3)
37. Tommy Holmes 1945 (15.1) His career year. Better in '45 was Hal Newhouser (19.9)
36. Albert Pujols 2003 (20.3). His career year. If you hit 20, it's silly to say anyone was better, unless we have a 22-23, but Bonds was 20.6 in 2003.
35. Ken Griffey 1997 (18.2) Griffey's career year. Better in '97 was Roger Clemens (22.1)
34. Jim Rice 1978 (13.7) Rice's career year. Phil Niekro was better (17)
33. Hank Greenberg 1940 (13.1) He had better seasons before '40, and also one after this in '46 (14.8). Bob Feller was 19.6.
32. Rod Carew 1977 (18.9). Carew's career year. He was the best player in '77.
31. Robin Yount 1982 (20.1). Yount's career year. He was the best player in '82.
30. Eric Gagne 2003 (13.2). His best season and a really good season for a closer. Pujols was better and Bonds was better than Pujols.
29. Mark Fidrych 1976 (16.3) His career year. Morgan (17.9) was better.
28. Hank Aaron 1957 (14.5). Had at least a half dozen better years than this. Mickey Mantle (22.1) had a better '57.
27. Nolan Ryan 1973 (15.9). His best year. Joe Morgan (19.9) had a better year.
26. Sammy Sosa 2001 (22.4) His best year. Bonds was better and at 24.8, the current best year on the board.
25. Vida Blue 1971 (16.6) Vida's best year. Fergie Jenkins (19.8) was better.
24. Roger Maris 1961 (10.6) Maris was better in '60 (13.5). Mantle (20.1) was considerably better in '61.
23. Joe Morgan 1976 See #29.
22. Willie Mays 1955 (18.8) Mays had a half dozen better years, but he was also the best player in '55
21. Fernando Valenzuela 1981 (12.7). His best year; Schmidt (16.7) was better.
20. Mark McGwire 1998 (17.3). Mac's best year. Bonds (19.1) it shouldn't surprise you, was better.
19. Roger Clemens 1986 (17.1). Clemens had a couple of better years, his best was in Toronto (see #35). Teddy Higuera had about the same year (17.2)
18. Dwight Gooden 1985 (25). Not only Gooden's best year and the best year for '85 - it's the new best year on the board.
17. Ron Guidry 1978 (17.8). His best season - he was the best player in '78.
16. Stan Musial 1948 (21.2) Musial's best season. He was the best player in '48.
15. Frank Robinson 1966 (17). His best season was '62 (17.7). Koufax (21.5) was the best player in '66.
14. Greg Maddux 1995 (19.5). His best season. He was baseball's best player.
13. Mickey Mantle 1956 (22.4). His best season. He was baseball's best player.
12. Denny McLain 1968 (14.3). His best season. The best player in '68 is still to come on the list.
11. Carl Yastrzemski 1967 (21.5). Yaz's best season. He was best player in '68.
10. Joe Dimaggio 1941 (19.2). His best season. Best player in '41 is a couple of spots away.
9. Randy Johnson 2001 (15.7). Had a couple of seasons a bit better, like '02 for example. See #26 for the best season in '01.
8. Ted Williams 1941 (21.3) He had a better year in '46 (22.8). He was baseball's best in '41.
7. Orel Hershiser 1988 (17.1). His best year. He was baseball's best.
6. Sandy Koufax 1965 (17.9) Was better in both '66 and '63. Mays was best (21.5).
5. Pedro Martinez 1999 (18.2). His best year was the next one, (21.1). He was best player in '99.
4. Steve Carlton 1972 (25). His best year, the best year in '72 and tied with Gooden as the best year on the list.
3. Bob Gibson 1968 (24.9). His best year, he was best in '68.
2. Jackie Robinson 1949 (20.2) His best year, he was best in '49.
1. Barry Bonds 2004 (23.6). His best year was '01, Barry was best in '04.
If you're thinking about all of baseball history - here is a list of the inner circle (20+) seasons. All of them after '40 could have been on this list. There are 42 of those inner circle seasons below; were you doing a list of the 40 best seasons after 1940, you'd start with those. There are 90 seasons total listed below, I could probably do a 100 best seasons in baseball history post someday.
Ruth: 1919, 1920, 1921, 1923, 1924, 1926, 1927, 1931
Bonds: 1992, 1993, 1996, 2001, 2002, 2004
Mays: 1954, 1958, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965
Walter Johnson: 1910, 1912, 1913, 1914, 1915
Cobb: 1910, 1911, 1917
Clemens: 1990, 1997
Wagner: 1908
Musial: 1948
Williams: 1941, 1942, 1946
Henderson: 1990
Hornsby: 1921, 1924, 1929
Collins: 1913
Gehrig: 1927
Seaver: 1971
Alexander: 1915, 1916, 1920
Mantle: 1956, 1957
Morgan: 1975
Ripken: 1984, 1991
Mathewson: 1908, 1909
Carlton: 1972
Perry: 1972
Gibson: 1968, 1969
Foxx: 1932
Yaz: 1967
Pe Martinez=2000
Yount=1982
Biggio=1997
Clarkson=1885, 1887, 1889
Feller=1946
Keefe=1883
Caruthers=1886, 1887
Boudreau=1948
Sosa=2011
Walsh=1908, 1910, 1912
Radbourn=1883, 1884
Pujols=2003
Gooden=1985
Koufax=1966, 1963
Jackie Robinson=1949
Guy Hecker=1884
Buffinton=1884
Silver King=1888
Rusie=1894
Whitney=1883
Giambi=2001
Cicotte=1917
Banks=1959
Trout=1944
Galvin=1884
Buffinton=1884
Silver King=1888
Rusie=1894
Whitney=1883
Giambi=2001
Cicotte=1917
Banks=1959
Trout=1944
Galvin=1884
m
The Weekly Tendown January 29-February 4 2012 (Super Bowl 46 Sunday)
Sunday, February 5, 2012
Dear Internet:
Was the best regular season dunk ever this week?
This is Tendown 113. 112 is here.
1. Hey Fitty, Can You Paypal Me?
From 50 Cent's Twitter:
Speaking of class consciousness, here's Zirin's pieces from this week about the labor protests of Indiana's right to work law. I cannot take seriously sports analysts who take offense at the mixture of politics and sports unless they also have condemned all of the pro-military postures taken in Super Bowls since Giants/Bills during the first Gulf War.
4. Popular Movements Work
Case in point:
5. No, Goddammit, No.
Now that we're engaged in fighting the right wing assault on women, can we focus on the real criminal encroachment of the past couple of years?
Unless its The Thorn Birds, don't advertise your television series two months before it starts. If I'm seeing this ad on television, I better be looking at my sweet sixteen brackets while its on.
6. The Best Piece You'll Read This Week:
From Rolling Stone, the suicide epidemic of gay teens in Michele Bachmann's vicious and ugly home district.
7. A Point I Never Get Tired of Making
Any time I ever have a discussion about abortion in any class, or there are papers written about abortion in any class, I will get some variation of the "its dangerous to have an abortion, women die" argument.
So, consider these facts.
Researchers found that women were about 14 times more likely to die during or after giving birth to a live baby than to die from complications of an abortion.
8. The Youtube Channel I'd Like to Start.
My favorite part of any Awards Show is In Memorium. It always works on me and I find who gets left out and which clips are used endlessly interesting; I remember as a child when I first started questioning the idea of a Heaven, trying to figure out what version of us we are in Heaven - are we young, are we old - my maternal grandfather remarried after my grandmother died, I was about 10, and I wondered who he'd be with in Heaven and how that would work. There just seemed to me an endless number of complications. I wonder as the clips are being chosen if there's some notion of immortalizing those actors at those particular ages and if there's a subconscious connection those who create the montages are making with how they view the afterlife for those actors.
I just enjoy In Memorium is all - and my idea is a Youtube Channel - a weekly In Memorium. Like Tendown, it would come out on the same day at the end of every week, and without irony, I'd have music and clips of notable people who died that week.
9. A Question About Twins
How many parents of twins get them confused and then just decide to go with it?
So, there's Tom and Tim and you have whatever marking or clothing or whatever to distinguish them - but you know how people are, there are parents who leave their babies alone while they go to the club, there certainly have to be situations where parents aren't vigilant about keeping their twins separate - there's Tom and Tim and one day you aren't quite sure who is who, so you just take a shot.
I wonder how many times twins have inadvertently flipped identities. Tom's Tom for the first month of his life and then he's Tim for the rest of his life and no one ever knows - or maybe it always nags at the parents but they never tell. That wouldn't be a bad scene to write, parents who lose track of who is who so they just decide to take a shot "okay, dammit, okay, this is Tom and that's Tim and we're never going to talk about this again."
10. No Mitt, We Aren't.
Mitt Romney said he didn't care what happened to poor people this week.
I believe him. That remark seemed honest to me, and if you want to vote for that, go nuts.
But he also said that Americans are the only people on earth who put their hands over their hearts during their national anthem.
Was the best regular season dunk ever this week?
This is Tendown 113. 112 is here.
1. Hey Fitty, Can You Paypal Me?
From 50 Cent's Twitter:
Me, as you may know from this post, I'm picking New England.
I'm taking them based on an historical evaluation of the regular season disparity between the two teams.
Here is a ranking of every Super Bowl winner based on regular season quality; a metric combining point differential and strength of schedule. If New York wins the Super Bowl, they will be the second worst winner all time, ahead of only the Colts team from V. New England would be in the middle of the pack, 24th, between the Packers from II and the '86 Giants.
Yes, the Giants are healthy now. Yes.
But we've had 46 years of Super Bowl history, 46 years of seasons where teams had injuries and then got healthy, and when you look at 46 years, there just aren't too many teams who look like the Giants that wound up winning the Super Bowl.
They look like a handful of Super Bowl losers. '99 Titans. '79 Rams. '08 Cardinals. '00 Giants. '03 Panthers.
But not like many winners.
The disparity between the Patriots and Giants is also historically significant when looking at past SB upsets.
This would be bigger than the IV Chiefs/Vikes upset. Bigger than the II gap between Oakland and the Packers. Even bigger than the Redskins/Raiders. There are 3 bigger upsets. The Jets from III, the first Patriots win, and of course, 2007, which might be the biggest upset in the history of a major team sport championship.
The Giants gave up more points than they scored this year. No SB winner has ever done that.
3/4 of all SB favorites won the game straight up.
On the merits of the matchups, I get the New York sentiment, which was why I said going into the playoffs that they were the dark horse. It's not a special New England team, and if you look at those Giants receivers and the Patriots secondary, you really want to play the over (I'm not doing that).
You've got to pick a winner, it's the Super Bowl. And when I've had the most success picking against the spread isn't when I've looked specifically at the matchups and tried to subjectively determine if the Giants pass rush will be able to get pressure on Brady or if New York will be able to run on the Patriots. When I've had the most success against the number is when I've entirely ignored the specific players and instead looked at the historical sweep of the contest. When I make my weekly picks during the season, I don't have either time or access to numbers each week that would tell me (for example) that divisional home favorites of a field goal are less have a significant winning percentage over the past 40 years. If I did, I'd use them and that's basically all I would use. You can play what happened last week if you want, I'll play what happened the last 40 years.
And sometimes you'll be right. But I'll be right more often.
Favorites win this game outright 75% of the time over a 45 year sample.
Teams with regular season profiles like New York's don't win this game. Just once in 45 years.
That doesn't mean New England wins - there isn't a result here that could be as monumentally surprising as a result we've already seen between these two teams 4 years ago.
But if you have to pick a side - and this is a Super Bowl prediction so I'm gonna - I'm going with 45 years of history.
If I wanted to talk about the specific players on the field - I'm going to ride with Brady. I'm not the biggest Tom Brady fan; to some extent he's a little historically overrated, given excessive credit for New England success. By that I mean he's just not seriously in the "best QB of all time" discussion.
Let's not overstate that though. Right now, I'd rank him below Graham, below Elway, below Favre, below Manning, below Unitas, below Marino, below Tarkenton, below Joe, below Young.
But that's it. I'd now have him ahead of both Fouts and Anderson. Ahead of Staubach and Bradshaw. I don't know that I would have said any of that a year ago.
I think this is his game. This is the game where he wins his 4th Super Bowl, where he passes Joe in all time playoff wins, where he beats a Manning (albeit the wrong one) in Indianapolis in the biggest game of the season. I've ranked every QB performance in a SB here; Brady's had two really good games, I've got SB39 as the 15th best and SB38 as the 18th best of all time. But he doesn't have one of those Montana games, a huge multi-touchdown no pick game where he just stands masterfully head and shoulders above the sport.
I think that's this game. I think we leave Sunday believing that Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the world and where a huge percentage of sports conversation (wrongly) says he's now the best ever.
The book I generally use still has the game at 3, but I know you can get the game at 2.5, which, obviously, I prefer. I'm going to say the line is 2.5 and if it turns out that half point matters you can put an asterisk when I say I went 9-2 in this postseason.
31-24 Patriots.
Edit - I was wrong. Enjoy the rest of the show.
2. And You Thought Peyton Was Fighting With the Colts
The Manning/Colts breakup gets a little uglier each week; it should be instructive to all of us who earn paychecks that a guy who made the business that is the Indianapolis Colts as much money as Manning has is still being called out in public by his boss at the end of his tenure. Your job will turn on you too (I say this given my first week without health insurance; if you've never been in the circumstance of still working at a job after they reclassify you as part time, slash your salary and take away your benefits, all without an explanation other than a shrug of the shoulders, let me suggest its a challenge. I survived the phone interview round of the best job I've ever interviewed for this week, and am moving on to a campus visit). If you don't feel a class consciousness with Peyton Manning as Jim Irsay tweets at 1 in the morning that Manning's camp is lying about his health, I don't know what to say to you.
But as bad as that is, consider what the owner of the Utah Jazz said about one of the two greatest workers in his business's history:
The most-stinging salvo came Friday night in a blog post written by Greg Miller in which he called Karl Malone "too unreliable and too unstable" to help the team as an assistant coach and claimed the 14-time All-Star and two-time NBA MVP lied to a newspaper about having to use a scalper to purchase tickets to a Jazz game.
I don't know what the bar is for a franchise to condemn its greatest ever player, it apparently wasn't when Malone was getting a 13 year old pregnant, so maybe the club didn't need to fire at him that hard for this offense.
3. Occupy The Super Bowl
4. Popular Movements Work
Case in point:
5. No, Goddammit, No.
Now that we're engaged in fighting the right wing assault on women, can we focus on the real criminal encroachment of the past couple of years?
Unless its The Thorn Birds, don't advertise your television series two months before it starts. If I'm seeing this ad on television, I better be looking at my sweet sixteen brackets while its on.
6. The Best Piece You'll Read This Week:
From Rolling Stone, the suicide epidemic of gay teens in Michele Bachmann's vicious and ugly home district.
7. A Point I Never Get Tired of Making
Any time I ever have a discussion about abortion in any class, or there are papers written about abortion in any class, I will get some variation of the "its dangerous to have an abortion, women die" argument.
So, consider these facts.
Researchers found that women were about 14 times more likely to die during or after giving birth to a live baby than to die from complications of an abortion.
8. The Youtube Channel I'd Like to Start.
My favorite part of any Awards Show is In Memorium. It always works on me and I find who gets left out and which clips are used endlessly interesting; I remember as a child when I first started questioning the idea of a Heaven, trying to figure out what version of us we are in Heaven - are we young, are we old - my maternal grandfather remarried after my grandmother died, I was about 10, and I wondered who he'd be with in Heaven and how that would work. There just seemed to me an endless number of complications. I wonder as the clips are being chosen if there's some notion of immortalizing those actors at those particular ages and if there's a subconscious connection those who create the montages are making with how they view the afterlife for those actors.
I just enjoy In Memorium is all - and my idea is a Youtube Channel - a weekly In Memorium. Like Tendown, it would come out on the same day at the end of every week, and without irony, I'd have music and clips of notable people who died that week.
9. A Question About Twins
How many parents of twins get them confused and then just decide to go with it?
So, there's Tom and Tim and you have whatever marking or clothing or whatever to distinguish them - but you know how people are, there are parents who leave their babies alone while they go to the club, there certainly have to be situations where parents aren't vigilant about keeping their twins separate - there's Tom and Tim and one day you aren't quite sure who is who, so you just take a shot.
I wonder how many times twins have inadvertently flipped identities. Tom's Tom for the first month of his life and then he's Tim for the rest of his life and no one ever knows - or maybe it always nags at the parents but they never tell. That wouldn't be a bad scene to write, parents who lose track of who is who so they just decide to take a shot "okay, dammit, okay, this is Tom and that's Tim and we're never going to talk about this again."
10. No Mitt, We Aren't.
Mitt Romney said he didn't care what happened to poor people this week.
I believe him. That remark seemed honest to me, and if you want to vote for that, go nuts.
But he also said that Americans are the only people on earth who put their hands over their hearts during their national anthem.
Gotcha.
That's all for this time. I'll be back next time...if there is a next time...
Your pal,
Jim
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