Here are my Emmy predictions, who I think will win/who should win.
Comedy Series Will: Louie Should: 30 Rock
Modern Family is the solid, maybe overwhelming favorite - but this would be its fourth win, putting it in a very small cohort (30 Rock only won three times, for example) and Modern Family isn't that kind of show.
The problem is the rest of the field is then wide open, you could make an argument for each of the remaining nominees (my choice, 30 Rock, is probably the least likely; my vote, had it been nominated, would have gone to Arrested Development...and if I had a vote.)
Louie has a ton of noms, suggesting that it's the most likely of the non Modern Family candidates. If it wins for writing/directing early in the night look out.
Comedy Actress: Will: Julia Louis-Dreyfus Should: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Veep is terrific; with no 30 Rock or Arrested Development on the upcoming season's lineup, it's the best sitcom on television. JLD just kills it every week; this is not a "we really liked Elaine so let's pick Julia" award; she's tremendous.
Comedy Actor: Will: Louis CK Should: Jason Bateman
Louis CK is that entire show, and if I'm picking it to win best comedy, he has to win best actor. If you decide to invest in the comedy series upset and this category goes to anyone else, strongly hedge that bet.
Any result in the category, even Cheadle, whose show isn't very good (and certainly isn't very funny) delivers constantly, as you'd expect. Arrested Development got overlooked, probably hit by some backlash as to the level of anticipation about its release and a challenge viewers had in piecing together the Netflix model, so my vote goes to its nominee, Bateman.
Comedy Supporting: Will: Jane Krakowski Should: Jane Krakowski
Will: Ty Burrell Should: Tony Hale
Julie Bowen's won twice in a row, but my projected Modern Family fatigue hits her in this scenario, and with Fey and Baldwin not winning for 30 Rock, its farewell award as the best comedy since Arrested Development goes to Krakowski.
I'll say Burrell gets Modern Family's only trophy from these categories; Hale is terrific on both Veep and AD, this is a Veep nom. but my ballot would reflect an awareness of both roles.
Drama Series Will: Breaking Bad Should: Mad Men
Breaking Bad is the second best drama on television and one of the ten greatest dramas ever produced; it will win. I don't share the collective wisdom that this was a down year for the best drama on television and one of the five best ever produced, so my vote goes to Mad Men
Drama Actor: Will: Bryan Cranston Should: Bryan Cranston
Jon Hamm should have at least one and probably two Emmys by now, but even a Mad Men as best show on television extremist would not select his over Cranston this year. If there is an upset, it's Kevin Spacey.
Drama Actress: Will: Kerry Washington Should: Claire Danes
An African-American has never won this category and Washington has an increasingly large profile. It would be a solid upset over Danes, television's best dramatic actor.
Drama Supporting: Will: Mandy Patinkin Should: Mandy Patinkin
Will: Anna Gunn Should: Anna Gunn
Aaron Paul is the favorite, but he's won twice, and with Homeland losing the awards it won a year ago in this prognostication, my vote goes to Patinkin, on whom I've had a dude crush since at least Princess Bride.
Maggie Smith is probably the favorite, but I'll say this is the year Gunn gets the award.
Movie/Mini: Will: Behind the Candelabra Should Top of the Lake
Actress: Will/Should: Elisabeth Moss
Actor: Will: Michael Douglas Should: Matt Damon
Reality Comp: Will: The Amazing Race Should: Top Chef
Variety Series: Will: Daily Show Should/Colbert Report
Not offering predictions on the writing/directing awards (but watch Louie) or the mini supporting categories.