a jim jividen blog

Here's the thing. I'm watching one of these shows on the Cooking Channel featuring food trucks. There's a Scottish expat making fish and chips; in a thick brogue he somewhat wearily explains his irritation with Americans who habitually order a side of tartar sauce: "tartar sauce is basically gherkins." That's this blog. I claim no particular insight, no revelation. If you enjoy the flavor, great, but this blog is basically gherkins.

Forever Giants: 1907 New York Giants

Friday, November 28, 2014

1906 is here.

My WAR calculation is a combination of Baseball-reference and Clay Davenport; I believe it to be the "best" WAR number available for historical comparison. 8 WAR is an MVP quality season. The parenthetical is a career Giants WAR total with the eventual goal of a top 100 Giants of all time. The record is pythagorean adjusted for 162 games.

1907 90-72
C Roger Bresnahan 3.05 (20.45)
1B Dan McGann 2.9 (14.9)
2B Larry Doyle -1.1
SS Bill Dahlen 1.1 (8.8)
3B Art Devlin 5.05 (17.15)
LF Spike Shannon 1.3 (.85)
CF Cy Seymour 3.6 (5.5)
RF George Browne -.1 (2.75)
OF Sammy Strang 2.5 (8.5)
Uti Frank Bowerman .75 (6.3)
2B Tommy Corcoran -.2
1B Jack Hannifn -.3
SP Christy Mathewson 7.65 (48.75)
SP Joe McGinnity 1.9 (28.65)
SP Red Ames 1.75 (4.95)
SP Hooks Wiltse 3.15 (5.8)
SP Dummy Taylor 1.3 (13)

-Bresnahan starts using shinguards and, following a June beaning in which he's given last rites, a padded mask.  Giants are at 90+ wins each of McGraw's five years as full season manager.  

1. Roger Connor 1B 56.9
2. Amos Rusie P 52.95
3. George Davis SS 44.15
4. Mike Tiernan RF 42.1
5. Mickey Welch P 41.55
6. Buck Ewing C 40.9
7. Tim Keefe P 29.05 
8. Jouett Meekin P 24.25
9. George Van Haltren CF 22.1

A Tiered MLB Hall of 200 - Right Field

Thursday, November 27, 2014

The explanation for all of this is here.

First Basemen
Second Basemen
Third Base
Left Field
Center Field

Inner Circle
Babe Ruth (1914-35, Yankees) WAR 176.85 OPS+206 ERA+ 122 PA 10622 IP 1221
Hank Aaron (1957-76, Braves) WAR 136 OPS+ 155 PA 13941
Stan Musial (1941-63, Cardinals) WAR 124.9 OPS+ 159 PA 12717

Not tough, Musial's got more bat at fewer PA, but can't make up the WAR ground with Aaron.

Middle Circle
Frank Robinson (1956-76, Reds) WAR 106.15 OPS+ 154 PA 11742
Mel Ott (1926-47, Giants) WAR 101.85 OPS+ 155 PA 11348
Al Kaline (1953-74, Tigers) WAR 85.75 OPS+ 134 PA 11596
Roberto Clemente (1955-72, Pirates) WAR 81.15 OPS+130 PA 10211
Paul Waner (1926-45, Pirates) WAR 75.3 OPS+134 PA 10766
Tony Gwynn (1982-2001, Padres) WAR 72.35 OPS+ 132 PA 10232

Lot of one team guys here after Robinson; he and Ott are very close, with Robinson's WAR getting him the top spot.  A decided step down to Kaline/Clemente, who could go in either order, and then Waner just noses Gwynn, who just noses the guy at the top of the outer circle.

Outer Circle
Larry Walker (1989-2005, Rockies) WAR 68 OPS+ 141 PA 8030
Harry Heilmann (1914-32, Tigers) WAR 63 OPS+ 148 PA 8964
Sam Crawford (1899-1917, Tigers) WAR 66.4 OPS+ 144 PA 10593
Gary Sheffield (1988-09, Marlins) WAR 67.65 OPS+ 140 PA 10947
Joe Jackson (1908-20, White Sox) WAR 57.6 OPS+ 170 PA 5695
Dwight Evans (1972-91, Red Sox) WAR 66.25 OPS+ 127 PA 10569
Reggie Jackson (1967-87, A's) WAR 66.1 OPS+ 139 PA 11418
Elmer Flick (1898-1910, Naps) WAR 56.05 OPS+ 149 PA 6414
Sammy Sosa (1989-2007, Cubs) WAR 61.2 OPS+128 PA 9896
Vladimir Guerrero (1996-2011, Expos) WAR 58.6 OPS+ 140 PA 9059

The two low PA anomalies make slotting tough; Walker and Heilmann are right at the top of the circle, Walker's got a great argument to be ranked ahead of Gwynn, and one year I might flip them; Crawford and Sheffield are super similar, as are Evans and Jackson.  Sosa and Abreu are in the same spot, nearly identical WAR and PA and identical OPS+, there's barely anything between them that isn't a rounding error.  Sosa gets the spot (there's no reason to pick Abreu, he's below Sosa on those two metrics) and Abreu doesn't make last out because there's a different profile that might be better in that slot.  So I mention him here.  I don't know where you'd put Jackson and Flick, their WAR is much lower, but they have the two best bats in the circle (and Jackson's got the best bat of anyone not named Ruth in this right field rank) and obviously the PA is super small.

Last Out
Sammy Sosa (1989-2007, Cubs) WAR 61.2 OPS+128 PA 9896
Bobby Abreu (1996-2014, Phillies) WAR 60.95 OPS+ 128 PA 10081

Vlad's got less WAR than both Sosa/Abreu, although not by much, has a good bat advantage and fewer PA.  Plus, if he moves up - that puts Sosa/Abreu together which makes sense. Yeah.  Here comes that swap.

On Deck
Ichiro Suzuki (2001-14, Mariners) WAR 53.3 OPS+110 PA 9663

Ichiro's not going to make it.

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