I turned 44 a couple of weeks ago; this is not a sentence I've written too many times in my life:
The San Francisco Giants are going to the World Series.
How certain am I? Not very, say 55/45, but the Giants are the better club. Better pythag in the regular season, better bats, Wainwright's questionable health maybe means better starting pitching, maybe a deeper pen, a better manager for what limited value that holds.
Those advantages are all fairly small, the Giants have a dead spot at the top of the lineup, were Wainwright 100% that would give the Cards both the best starter and reliever in the series, the Cardinals have home field advantage (is there going to be a Michael Brown protest inside the stadium? Will outside protests be covered by Fox?).
But the Giants, not by a huge margin, but its a non zero one, are better. So I'll pick them.
Giants in 7.
Okay, not 7, if it's 7, that means Game 7 is the same time as Niners/Broncos, and I don't have the bandwidth for that.
Giants in 6.