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Super Bowl 49 Pick

Monday, January 26, 2015

Seattle +1
Under 48.5
Brady attempts under 35.5
Brady completions under 23.5
Brady longest completion under 37.5
Total Points Gostkowski under 8.5

Wilson longest completion over 37.5

Seattle 24 NE 21

I'm 7-3 against the spread in the playoffs; a year ago, I gave you Seattle +2.5 in Super Bowl 48.

This is a very tight game; let me use a basketball metaphor - Seattle's pass defense dares the referees to blow the whistles, which, in championship games, they are understandably less likely to do.  To the extent "deflategate" matters, can we stipulate that the league, were they booking the game like a wrestling match (in the way the NBA has occasionally been accused of doing) they would not desire an outcome where the Patriots are holding the title (under inflating the footballs might not be a one off occurrence).  This isn't wrestling, however, were the Seahawks, as is their wont, to challenge the officials to throw the flags, maybe they aren't so eager to throw them.  

Were I in the Seattle camp (and I'm not - a year ago, for multiple reasons, I rooted for them, even as a Niner fan, this year, I'd like to see them lose in the most painful way possible) that would be my reading of the current political climate.  Rough up the Pats receivers, hold Gronkowski on every play like he's Shaq, dare the officials to keep throwing flags.  

That drives my game pick and most of the above prop selections.  

(Boyhood wins Best Picture - I'd be happy with it or Birdman, but my favorite movie was Whiplash)

If you're interested in my historical Super Bowl work - here it is

Forever Giants:1957 New York Giants(Year 75)

1956 is here.

My WAR calculation is a combination of Baseball-reference and Clay Davenport; I believe it to be the "best" WAR number available for historical comparison. 8 WAR is an MVP quality season. The record is pythagorean adjusted for 162 games.



1957 74-88
C Valmy Thomas .9
1B Whitey Lockman -.8 
2B Danny O’Connell 2.05
SS Daryl Spencer 1 
3B Ray Jablonski 1.9
LF Hank Sauer .4
CF Willie Mays 8.45 MVPQ
RF Don Mueller -2.6
2B Red Schoendienst 1.75 
1B Gail Harris .25
3B Ozzie Virgil -.2
OF Bobby Thomson .45 (22.1) Last Season
OF Dusty Rhodes -1.65 
OF Ray Katt -.2 
SS Eddie Bressoud 0 
C Wes Westrum -.55 (13.35) Last Season
SP Ruben Gomez 4 
SP Johnny Antonelli 3.95 
SP Curt Barclay 2.95
SP Ray Crone  .2
RP Marv Grissom 1.75 
RP Al Worthington 1.95 
RP Stu Miller 2.15

-75 years later, the New York Giants are no more. The Giants had a forgettable final season in the Polo Grounds, below a .500 pythag and the worst attendance in the NL. Bobby Thomson comes back to see the Giants off.  Westrum finishes as a Pureblood Giant. From a San Francisco Giants fan - Thanks to the fans of the New York Giants; they're forgotten about a little bit, but they lost their baseball team after 75 years.  

Here are the 50 greatest NY Giants.  The Forever Giants

1. Mel Ott RF 105.85 (1926-47, full career as a Giant - Pureblood Giant)
2. Christy Mathewson SP 99.8 (1900-16)
3. Carl Hubbell SP 69.3 (1928-43, Pureblood Giant)
4. Amos Rusie P 60.25 (1890-98)
5. Roger Connor 1B 56.85 (1883-89, 91, 93-4)
6. Bill Terry 1B 49.2 (1923-36, Pureblood Giant)
7. Art Fletcher SS 44.5 (1909-20)
8. Travis Jackson SS 43.45 (1922-36, Pureblood Giant)
9. Mike Tiernan RF 43.2 (1887-99, Pureblood Giant)
10. George Davis SS 42.3 (1893-01, 03)

11. Buck Ewing C 40.95 (1883-89, 91-2)
12. Mickey Welch P 40.85 (1883-92, only a Giant during life of the Giants)
13. Willie Mays CF 39.7 (1951-57) 
14. Frankie Frisch 2B 35.6 (1919-26)
15. Larry Doyle 2B 34.8 (1907-16, 18-20)
16. Art Devlin 3B 34.4 (1904-11)
17. Hal Schumacher SP 34.1 (1931-46, Pureblood Giant)
18. Johnny Antonelli SP 22.65 (1954-57) 
19. George Burns LF 33.25 (1911-21)
20. Johnny Mize 1B 29.7 (1942, 46-9)

21. Joe McGinnity P 28.9 (1902-08)
22. Dick Bartell SS 28.6 (1935-8, 41-6)
23. Hooks Wiltse P 28.55 (1904-14) 
24. Tim Keefe P 28.15 (1885-89, 91) 
25. Ross Youngs RF 27.9 (1917-26, Pureblood Giant)
26. Freddie Fitzsimmons P 26.9 (1925-37)
27. Roger Bresnahan C 26.1 (1902-08)
28. Alvin Dark SS 25.4 (1950-56) 
29. Jouett Meekin P 24.2 (1894-99)
30. Hank Thompson 3B 24.05 (1949-56)

31. Jeff Tesreau SP 23.9 (1912-18, Pureblood Giant)
32. Sal Maglie P 23.5 (1945-55)
33. High Pockets Kelly 1B 23.3 (1915-17, 19-26)
34. Larry  Jansen SP 23 (1947-54)
35. George Van Haltren CF 22.75 (1894-03)
36. Bobby Thomson CF 22.1 (1946-53, 57)
37. Freddie Lindstrom 3B 22.05 (1924-32) 
38. Cy Seymour CF/P 21.9 (1896-00, 06-10)
39. Chief Meyers C 20.9 (1909-15)
40. Harry Danning C 19.85 (1933-42, Pureblood Giant)

41. Monte Ward SS 19.65 (1883-89, 93-4)
42. Cliff Melton SP 17.15 (1937-44, Pureblood Giant)
43. Monte Irvin LF 17 (1949-55)
46. Jim O’Rourke OF 16.75 (1885-89, 91-2, 04)
45. Sid Gordon 3B/LF 15.95 (1941-3, 46-9, 55)
46. Rube Marquard SP 15.35 (1908-15) 
47Ruben Gomez SP 15.1 (1953-57)
48. Dan McGann 1B 14.85 (1902-07) 
49. Willard Marshall RF 14.8 (1942-49)
50. Dave Koslo SP 14.75 (1941-53)


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