(Not Really A) 2015 NFL Mock Draft (first round). Please, Please, Please Don't Select Arik Armstead

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

In an exercise that's becoming increasingly popular, this is not my first round prediction, instead, it's how I would make each pick were I selecting it.  I'll look to do this again after round one as the board resets.

1. Tampa Marcus Mariota QB Oregon
-Not a difficult decision over Winston, based on performance without even getting to The Hunting Ground of it all.  Tampa should play Glennon the first two years; were I in a decision making capacity, I don't think there's any rookie quarterback I'd play even a snap.

2. Tennessee Leonard Williams DE USC
-This is a move down draft beginning at this spot, I don't really like anyone as having top 5 value.  I'm a USC guy; more than that, a Pac 12 guy, so I've seen a lot of those west coast games.  Williams isn't quite that kind of dominant pass rusher who gets picked second, but he's the best all around player on my board.

3. Jacksonville Todd Gurley RB Georgia
-Yes, Gurley has a medical concern and running backs no longer get picked this high (and that's reasonable) but I'm a little irrationally high on Gurley, I don't feel super confident about my ordering of the pass rushers, and the Jags have a desperate need.  Like the Titans, they should deal down.  I'll stop saying that now, just assume it's true for everyone.

4. Oakland Amari Cooper WR Alabama
-If the old man were still alive, it would be White, but I've got Cooper as my solid top receiver.

5. Washington Vic Beasley OLB Clemson
-My top pass rusher, and who I'd take at #3 if the Jags are married to getting one there.

6. New York Jets Randy Gregory OLB Nebraska
-A bigger need than White; I have him just ahead of Fowler.

7. Chicago Danny Shelton DT Washington
-Excellent spot for an underrated guy.  Really like him at this spot.  I'm a Niners fan, if he's still available by like pick 12, I'll be agitating to get up and get him.

8. Atlanta Dexter Fowler DE Florida
-He's almost certainly gone, Gregory's drug test will knock him down for people who aren't me, but this is really as high as I like Fowler who is a little more of a project than is being discussed.

9. New York Giants La'el Collins T LSU
-I've got him ahead of Scherff, and the Giants are in a really good spot to get the top offensive lineman. Collins, like Gregory, might be looking at a real off the field related slide.

10. St Louis Brandon Scherff T Iowa
-My second lineman; depth at receiver maybe aids my decision to pass on White/Parker here.

11. Minnesota Kevin White WR West Virginia
-Here, the value at receiver is so strong that, despite the OL need, you have to get that deep threat.  Passing on Parker with his quarterback behind center is tough.

12. Cleveland Jameis Winston QB Florida St.
-This is about where I think Winston's value is; the Browns need a quarterback, and it's a small enough market (and really provincial) that Winston gets some protection from scrutiny.

13. New Orleans Shane Ray OLB Missouri
-Last of the touted pass rushers, I think there's a real chance that Shelton's still on the board here and that he's the Saints pick - meaning, as a Niner fan, I might want that 12th spot.

14. Miami DeVante Parker WR Louisville
Good spot for him; he's likely to be gone as high as the Rams, and that's not unreasonably high.

15. San Francisco Marcus Peters CB Washington
If we're here, and we might be, the 3 top receivers and the 4 top pass rushers all gone, Shelton, the guy I want here, gone - I'll be looking really hard for a trade down.  Who I won't be looking for (and this is the reference in the subject of the post) is Arik Armstead, who most mocks have going to the Niners and who I don't like in the first round.  I have Peters, narrowly, as my top corner, it's a little early for a corner in this draft, so my hope is a deal down.

16. Houston Dorial Green Beckham WR Missouri
I'm taking the shot.  Someone's gotta be fourth, I'm willing to go on the potential at this point in the round.

17. San Diego Bud Dupree OLB Kentucky
I've got him a cut below the other four, enough that I don't want him at #15 but would want the other guys, this is a real trade down possibility.

18. Kansas City Devin Smith WR Ohio St.
Here's how much I like Smith; I've got him ranked ahead of my guy from USC, and if the Niners were to take him at #15, even though I want to go defense, I don't scream in protest.

19. Cleveland Nelson Agholor WR USC
And there's my USC guy.  Similar to Williams, I've seen him enough that the flaws are more evident, he lacks Smith's explosion, and DGB's upside, but he's got a high floor and I'm good with him here.

20. Philadelphia Landon Collins S Alabama
Fits the need and this is good slotting.  Note how the Niners could deal down and still get that corner.

21. Cincinnati Andrus Peat T Stanford
I've got three draft crushes, Shelton's the first, the second is Peat's teammate, Anderson, and the Bengals would be the first spot I'd consider getting him (he won't go in the first round).  If Dupree's available at #15, that's another possible deal partner.

22. Pittsburgh Trae Waynes CB Michigan St.
Here's where I think it's time to take corners, when we get to the last ten picks of the round; I've got Waynes a tick ahead of Collins.

23. Detroit Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin
Good spot for Gordon, like him right here; I don't think he gets by Arizona.

24. Arizona Cameron Erving C Florida St.
Add to the Iupati signing and they've done a nice job with this interior line.

25. Carolina Ereck Flowers T Miami
Dire need for a tackle, Flowers is the best available.

26. Baltimore Breshad Perriman WR UCF
7th first round receiver.

27. Dallas Jalen Collins CB LSU
Here's the next spot where I'm tempted to go for Anderson, but Collins is as good as either corner taken and they need one.

28. Denver Cedric Ogbuehi T Texas A&M
Best OL on the board.

29. Indianapolis Eric Kendricks ILB UCLA
Here's my third draft crush, my ideal Niners draft is we get all 3 without having to move, or if we miss on Shelton, deal back so we can get both Kendricks and Anderson and then the best available corner/wide receiver/offensive lineman.

30. Green Bay Kevin Johnson CB Wake Forest
Packers really want to deal down here, they'd like a Kendricks, but if he's gone, an Anthony or a Dawson also works, but not here.

31. New Orleans  Arik Armstead DE Oregon
 Armstead's fine here. Just not with me at 15.

32. New England Henry Anderson DE Stanford
Goddamn, Belichick.  

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