Super Bowl 48 Pick/Best Picture Pick

Monday, January 27, 2014

Seattle +2.5 Denver

Seattle straight up.

The Seahawks are better in all 3 of the metric systems that I use to evaluate games over the course of the season; they add some version of Percy Harvin while the Broncos play for the second week without Chris Harris.  There's a bit of irresistible force against immovable object here with Manning against the Seattle pass defense. I'd expect Denver scores, but Manning's slow footed against an active Seattle front seven, and to whatever degree the weather is impactful it cuts against Peyton to some degree.  On the other side of the ball, I'm not sure how Denver, without Harris or Von Miller, stops Seattle.  This game looks to me like one where we leave believing that the NFC Championship was the real Super Bowl.

Seattle 31 Denver 21 (Over the total, which is 47)

A week ago, when I told you to take the Seahawks, I suggested parlaying it with 12 Years A Slave, which was then -240.  It's now -350.  If you want to invest, you need to do that now before the BAFTAs.

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