2015 Oscar Picks

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Picture - Boyhood
-I gave you some bad investment advice a couple of weeks ago, Boyhood hasn't become a larger favorite (despite, as predicted here, winning the BAFTAs) instead, Birdman's winning at all the guilds has placed it as the choice.

I'm still going Boyhood, partially because of my sense that the preference ballot means Boyhood is more likely to pick up down ballot votes than is Birdman (which seems more polarizing) and partially because my commitment bias leads to doubling down when I shouldn't.

Birdman's better.  Not by a lot, but it's better.  Boyhood's more emotionally impactful, not by a lot, but it is.  My favorite nominated movie was Whiplash.  That's more my tempo.

Actor - Eddie Redmayne
-I'm a Michael Keaton guy for 35 years, it was well into the 90s before my brother Joe and I stopped quoting Johnny Dangerously to each other.

It doesn't look like its gonna happen, BAFTA, SAG, Globes - all Redmayne.  I'd be for Keaton regardless, but the guy who should have absolutely gotten nominated is Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler, thats the best performance I saw last year.

Actress - Julianne Moore
Supporting - JK Simmons, Patricia Arquette

Those races are all over; there's not a path for an upset.

Director - Inarritu 
Inarritu won DGA, the DGA winner almost always wins.  Could be the split ballot works exactly the other way, and Birdman wins Picture and Linklater Director and there you go.  The scenario picked by most is probably Birdman wins both, second most predicted would be Birdman/Linklater, my scenario here would be the third, and the Boyhood sweep would be fourth.

Original - Budapest Hotel
Adapted - Imitation Game
Cinematography - Birdman
Production Design - Budapest Hotel
Costume Design - Budapest Hotel
Editing - Boyhood
Makeup - Budapest Hotel
Visual Effects - Interstellar
Sound Mixing - Whiplash
Sound Editing - American Sniper
Score - Theory of Everything
Song - Selma
Animated Feature - How to Train Your Dragon 2
Foreign - Ida
Doc. - Citzenfour
Animated Short - Feast
Live Action Short - Phone Call
Doc Short - Crisis Hotline

Forever Giants:1978 San Francisco Giants Year 21 (96)

1977 is here.

My WAR calculation is a combination of Baseball-reference and Clay Davenport; I believe it to be the "best" WAR number available for historical comparison. 8 WAR is an MVP quality season. The parenthetical is a career Giants WAR total with the eventual goal of a top 100 Giants of all time. The record is pythagorean adjusted for 162 games.

1978 83-79
C Marc Hill  1.25
1B Willie McCovey -.65 
2B Bill Madlock 5.05 
SS Johnnie LeMaster .35 
3B Darrell Evans 3.75 
LF Terry Whitfield 1.65 
CF Larry Herndon .5
RF Jack Clark 6.25 
1B Mike Ivie 2.15
SS Roger Metzger  .25
LF Hector Cruz .05
OF Jim Dwyer .45
2B Rob Andrews .05 
C Mike Sadek -.4 
IF Vic Harris  -.75
C John Tamargo -.35
SP Bob Knepper 6.15 
SP Vida Blue 6.35
SP John Montefusco 1.45 
SP Ed Halicki 3.3
SP Jim Barr 1.6 

-This is my first full season; our best since '73. I knew McCovey (who would hit his 500th homer) was important, I was excited about Vida Blue, who sort of took San Francisco by storm in moving across the Bay, and Jack Clark, who came into his own as a 22 year old slugger.  Attendance was a million higher than the year before.  I saw my first game at Candlestick (we lost).  This was the year that cemented I was in.  Yadda, Yadda, Yadda, 40 years later and here we are.  Like Speier the year prior, Barr's leaving for a few years but he's also coming back.

Top 10 Left Fielders - 2015 MLB

Right Fielders are here.

Here's my ranking for MLB left fielders for the 2015 MLB season.  But first - the MLB Network rankings. I'll revisit before Opening Day.

MLB Network
10. Christian Yelich Miami
9. Justin Upton SD
8. Corey Dickerson Col
7. Matt Holliday StL
6. Nelson Cruz Sea
5. Alex Gordon KC
4. Starling Marte Pit
3. Michael Brantley Cle
2. Jayson Werth Wash
1. Hanley Ramirez Bos

20. M. Trumbo Ari 1.8
19. E.Gattis Hou 1.85
18. C. Crawford LAD 1.9
17. B. Gardner NYY 2.15
16. C. Granderson NYM 2.15
15. D.Jennings TB 2.25
14. J.Hamilton LAA 2.4
13. S. Marte Pit 2.4
12. O.Arcia Minn 2.4
11. Y. Cespedes Det 2.55
10. M. Cabrera CWS 2.65
9. C. Dickerson Col 2.7
8. M. Brantley Cle 2.85
7. C. Yelich Mia 3
6. K. Davis Mil 3.15
5. H. Ramirez Bos 3.15
4. M. Holliday StL 3.3
3. J. Upton SD 3.45
2. J. Werth Wash 3.45
1. A. Gordon KC 3.85

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