Historically, I've had success with season long win totals. Last year, I whipped some sportsbook ass. I'll put my projected wins first and the current sportsbook total next. Edit - I made my final changes at 6:00 on Thursday, just ahead of kickoff for week one. Other than moving the Rams to first in the West, it's essentially unchanged since the initial post.
1. New England (11, 11.5)
No play here.
2. New York (9, 10)
-You know, the defense slid a little bit last year; they don't get to the quarterback as much as you'd suspect given the bravado. Right now, you can go under 10 and get even money to do it. I don't love it, but a small investment on the Jets to go under 10 makes sense.
3. Miami (7, 7.5)
-I may kick them back to 7-9. I keep swapping between the Fish going 7-9 and the Pats going 12-4.
4. Buffalo (7, 5.5)
-There's an over play here. I may wind up with Steve Johnson on all 3 fantasy teams.
1. Pittsburgh (12, 10.5)
-Go in. 7 of my Top 100 players in the NFL are Steelers.
2. Baltimore (9, 10)
-10 looks just as good as 9. It's Saturday night as I type my notes into the blog; I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind until Thursday morning. I might bump the Ravens to 10. I'll need to find someone to drop a win. I don't think they get to 11 wins though, if you feel like playing Baltimore, go under. I'm keeping them at 9.
3. Cleveland (8, 7)
Cleveland has a particularly soft first half of the schedule; what I want you to do is look for a first 8 games win total, see if you can get 3.5, then go in. You should play over the 7, just don't freak out in December.
4. Cincinnati (6, 5.5)
1. Houston (10, 9)
2. Jacksonville (7, 6.5)
A small over makes sense; do you recall a team cutting its starting quarterback twice right before the start of the season like the Jags have done, first with Leftwich and now Garrard?
3. Indianapolis (6, off)
-If you can find a book taking Colts action, look to play the under. Let me be the first person to offer the following "Remember how the Spurs got Duncan" scenario. Manning misses the season. The Colts go 3-13 and get the top pick. I've already written the sign "If the Colts Get Luck, We Riot."
I have a bit of a man crush on Andrew Luck. I'm willing to carve the Canton bust right now.
4. Tennessee (5, 6.5)
-Take a six win team, add a coaching change, quarterback change and the lockout - throw in Britt's legal troubles and Johnson's holdout, and 7 wins seems long to me, and that's what it takes to beat you. Hasselbeck's not a good quarterback anymore, and if they throw some white flag starts Locker's way late in the season, those are losses too. I do not like this team. If someone's going to challenge Carolina for the number one pick, it's Tennessee.
1. San Diego (11, 10)
-10 is a push, and in this division, I don't think SD wins less than ten games. A small over makes sense.
2. Kansas City (7, 7.5)
-Under. Tougher schedule.
3. Denver (7, 6)
-Maybe a small over: I don't think Orton goes 5-11.
4. Oakland (6, 6.5)
-A tiny under. Especially if you can get the number at 7.
This would make the playoffs:
I'll take the Chargers to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship.
1. Philadelphia (11, 10.5)
Yeah, you can play that. Over,
2. Dallas (9, 9)
I don't think they're liable to get 10. Small under
3. New York (7, 9)
4. Washington (6, 6)
I really, really don't think it's likely they go 7-9...okay, you can make a small play here. This is another team in line for that top draft pick.
1. Green Bay (11, 11.5)
The Pack went 10-6 last year. 2 more wins is a lot of wins. Small under.
2. Chicago (8, 8)
3. Detroit (8, 8)
4. Minnesota (7, 7)
1. Atlanta (10, 10)
2. New Orleans (10, 10)
3. Tampa (7, 8)
Why you gotta hate me, Vegas?
4. Carolina (6, 4.5)
The Panthers will have an interesting decision to make with the top pick in the 2012 draft. Hard to get dollar for dollar for Newton, and impossible to deal the pick. I mean, there isn't a circumstance that I can think of where I'd deal that pick. I would rather have that pick than lose in the conference title game. You give me that choice right now, I can either have the top pick, meaning I go 2-14, or go 12-4 and get beat in the conference title, and I want the pick and it isn't close. Anything short of a Super Bowl appearance is not worth Andrew Luck. You can play a small over here.
1. St. Louis (8, 7.5)
2. Niners (7, 7.5)
3. Cardinals (7, 7)
4. Seattle (6, 6)
So, that makes the playoffs:
3. Green Bay
5. New Orleans
6. New York
I'll take the Eagles to beat the Falcons.
That would give me a Chargers/Eagles Super Bowl. I'll take San Diego. There you go.