My pre-season picks are here.
I picked against the Vegas over/under season win totals like I do with every sport. And as is always the case, I was successful.
Atlantic - 3 win, 2 loss
Central - 2 win, 3 loss
Southeast - 5 wins, 0 loss, including my two biggest differences with the Vegas line in the East, Washington and Charlotte
Southwest - 3 wins, 2 loss
Northwest - 2 wins, 3 loss
Pacific - 4 wins, 1 loss, splitting my two biggest differences with the Vegas line in the West, Sacramento and the Clippers
That's 19 winners, 11 losers if you invested in my NBA advice. And if you invested more in my biggest disparity plays with the line, that finished 3-1.
When it comes to an individual game or an individual series, my thoughts really are only marginally more valuable than anyone else's. Always a good preface before playoff picks, I recognize. But before a season starts, I'm..I hesitate to say always, but pretty darn close..always giving you winners.
My pre-season finals matchup was Miami/Lakers, and I'm going to say that still happens - but I'm largely making this up.
Chicago over Indiana in 4
Orlando over Atlanta in 5
Miami over Philadelphia in 5
Boston over NY in 6
-There's no earthly chance, outside of multiple injuries, that the Bulls lose to Indiana. I'd be surprised if any of the other series went other than this; Orlando's margin for error is the smallest of any of the top teams, as they rely entirely on Dwight Howard (my choice for MVP); Philly is the best of the 4 underdogs, and NY is a sexy matchup and one I hope goes in favor of the Knicks.
Chicago over Orlando
Miami over Boston
Miami over Chicago
-I have a mancrush on the James/Wade combo and am emotionally invested in seeing them come out of the East. They're a coin flip against the Bulls; I feel pretty good about the matchups in the second round for the favorites.
San Antonio over Memphis in 7
Denver over OKC in 7
Portland over Dallas in 7
Lakers over NO in 4
-None of the series are as extreme as the Bulls/Pacers matchup, but you'd be really surprised if the Hornets took the Lakers out. Everything else is brutal; the Ginobli injury really tightens up that Memphis series; OKC could win the whole damn thing and I have them out in the first round; and Portland/Dallas is a tossup series.
Denver over San Antonio
Lakers over Portland
-I like whomever comes out of Denver/OKC to make the conference finals. The Lakers could lose that matchup to either the Blazers or Mavs, but you couldn't bet that way.
Lakers over Denver
-You could absolutely pick against the Lakers in this round, in fact, once we know if it's Denver or OKC, consider picking them.
But from here - I've got the same Heat/Lakers matchup I had before the season, and I'll take Miami to win the chip.
I'm guessing Denver/Chicago won't quite pull in the same numbers.