a jim jividen blog

Here's the thing. I'm watching one of these shows on the Cooking Channel featuring food trucks. There's a Scottish expat making fish and chips; in a thick brogue he somewhat wearily explains his irritation with Americans who habitually order a side of tartar sauce: "tartar sauce is basically gherkins." That's this blog. I claim no particular insight, no revelation. If you enjoy the flavor, great, but this blog is basically gherkins.

Monday, September 5, 2011

2011 Fantasy Football Top 100

I've got 3 fantasy football drafts coming in the next two days.  My main suggestion is to mock draft from your draft spot - the flow of the draft from position 10 looks very different than position 3.

Here's my top 100 board.

1. Peterson (I have the first pick in my last draft, I'll take Peterson.)
2. Rice (I have the second pick in my second draft, I will take Rice; in the mock for that draft, I did take Rice)
3. Foster
4. LMcCoy
5. Mendenhall (I got Mendenhall with the 12th pick in my draft this morning, which I anticipated, as that's how it worked in my mock.  Mock from your draft slot.  Now, in my mock for the second draft, Mendenhall was still available at pick 23, where I took him, and will again tonight if he's on the board.)
6. CJohnson
7. AJohnson (I got Johnson with the 13th pick on the wraparound.  Again, exactly as it had gone in the mock.     If you've got the back of the order wraparound pick and Johnson's gone, you should pick Roddy White; the top line receivers are shallow. Both White and Johnson were gone in my mock for draft 2 before I got back around to my second round pick. That left me a tough decision with pick 26.)
8. MJD
9. SJax
10. Hillis (Hillis goes lower than this, he almost made it back around to me picking 36th in the third round, he didn't - but if you're picking, say 9th, you can maybe get him in the third round.  Hillis made it all the way back to me with pick 47 in my second mock; that's 20 spots lower than his ADP, do I'm not expecting him to be there tonight, but you can get him much lower than pick ten.)
11. Turner
12. Rivers (I almost got him 36th, I didn't, but in my second draft, the one where I am picking second, I'll pick Rice, then expect him to be around for my second/third picks.  Okay, in the mock for my second draft, Rivers was still on the board, but also on the board was Fitzgerald, and since I didn't get Johnson/White, I decided to lose Rivers, take Fitzgerald, and then take Ben when the draft came back around my way.  I still don't know which is the better decision.)
13. Charles
14. RWhite (I haven't done my mock for the second draft yet, but I might be looking at Rivers/White with the second/third picks)
15. Forte
16. Rodgers
17. Benson - I got Benson 37th this morning, with my 4th round pick, if Rivers is gone before my second pick, I'm likely to go White/Benson.  I went in hoping for Benson at that 37th spot, but he was gone pretty far before that in the mock, so didn't anticipate it.
18. Matthews - I wouldn't pick him before the 4th, he was still available at 36/37 this morning.
19. Vick - people will pay more than this, I won't get either Vick or Rodgers
20. Greene - Benson/Matthews/Greene were all lined up for me at 36/37, I only took one and then got a QB I'll mention in a moment, but in my mock I went Matthews/Greene.
21. Fitzgerald - got him in the mock for my second draft at pick 26.
22. FJones
23. Gore
24. Brees - This is who I took at 36.  My target is really Ben, but I didn't want him until 60/61.  It worked in the mock, but just barely - and if I miss on Ben, I'm not happy with the next step down.  So, with Brees still on the board, I chose to get him here, passing on Matthews/Greene/Felix Jones, rather than sweat it out for Ben.  I think, as it turns out, he still would have been around.
25. Blount
26. Jennings
27. McFadden
28. Brady - Obviously, I won't get Brady.
29. Austin - After having gone RB-WR-QB-RB, you know I have to get best available WR at 60/61, I almost got Austin.
30. CJohnson - I won't get Johnson.
31. Bradshaw - I'm also looking at a 3rd RB, for a flex spot, in 60/61, so I'm filling my board with backs and receivers.  I didn't get Bradshaw either.
32. Ben - My QB strategy is Rivers early and if  it doesn't fit, then Ben.  I've got two drafts left and that's my expectation.  If Rivers is still there in my 3rd, I get him.  If not, I wait until the 6th for Ben.  Took Ben in the 5th, at pick 50 in my second mock.  After passing on Rivers, I wasn't going to wait until pick 71 to see if he was free.  I think I'm leaning toward doing this the other way if I have the dilemma with the real draft, taking Rivers and then scrambling for receivers.
33. Wallace
34. SJohnson - this is who I got with the 60th pick this morning, I was pleased.  In the second mock I got him at 74.
35. Wells - and this is who I got 61st to be my flex.  In the second mock, he was still around at pick 74, but as I had 3 backs on the roster, I took a receiver instead.
36. Nicks
37. Tampa Williams
38. Holmes - This morning, I'm now thinking about 84/85, and one of those picks is going to be my third wideout, Holmes almost made it.
39. VJax
40. Bowe
41. Lloyd - I just missed out getting Lloyd 84th.  I took Lloyd 71st in my second mock, note, I took him 3 spots ahead of Johnson; that's because my working belief is there's a better chance that the guy in between my two picks takes Lloyd than Johnson.  Now, this is a spot I'll have to re-evaluate, as there wasn't a defense taken at 74, but several were gone by the time the draft worked back to me at 95; I may have to take a defense in the 7th round of this draft.
42. Addai
43. BG-E
44. Gates - I love Gates, but I won't pay for him.  I wound up getting an end of the draft TE, and I expect that to be the case in each draft.
45. Best
46. Colston
47. Ryan - If I were to take the Ben strategy but miss, I'd probably grab Ryan.
48. Boldin
49. Wayne
50. Welker

51. Ingram
52. Jacobs - I got Jacobs as my 4th back with pick 98 in my second mock.
53. Romo
54. Harvin
55. Steelers - The defenses started to go in the mock in the 60s, enough that I set as my point to take one my 8th pick, at 85.  In the actual draft, only the Steelers had gone, before my 8th pick.  In the standard CBS $ leagues, there's some points in defense, so I always rank them higher than you might expect.
56. RBush - he almost made it back around to be at 108/109 when I was picking my 3rd WR/4th RB.  I would have gone TE at that point had there been value on the board.  There was not.  If your defenses aren't as valuable, you could go TE where I went defense.  I got him in my second mock as my 5th back at 119.
57. Marshall
58. AJ Green - this is my third WR, I got him 84th  I got Green at 146 in my second mock.
59. Moreno
60. Tolbert
61. Freeman
62. Jets - and thats who I got 85th.
63. FJackson
64. Manningham
65. Schaub
66. JStewart
67. DThomas
68. DJax
69. VD
70. Moss - weird that there's only one Moss left
71. Bryant
72. DWilliams
73. Bryant
74. DWilliams
75. Hightower
76. Manning.  The Younger
77. Starks
78. Witten
79. Rice - I got him 108th as my 4th receiver and was very pleased; thought about taking him as high as 84th, but he fell here.
80. LT - and I got Tomlinson 109th as my 4th RB.  If the Jets will just bench Greene again like last year, I'll look to sell high on LT right after his first solid game.
81. SSmith
82. Eagles
83. Lynch
84. McGahee
85. JJones - right after I picked AJ, the next guy picked Jones
86. Knox - I thought about Knox over Rice, but he almost fell all the way to 132.
87. Packers
88. Bears - the Bears were my defense in the second mock at 95.
89. Clark
90. Maclin
91. Crabtree
92. Ford
93. Flaco
94. Chad
95. RWilliams
96. Evans
97. Moore
98. Garcon
99. Finley
100. Peyton

In both my first draft and my second mock I wound up with Billy Cundiff, Zach Miller, Colt McCoy.  In the first real draft I got Justin Forsett as my fifth RB.  I'd expect to get McCoy and Miller in every draft.

Team One:
QB Brees
RB Mendenhall
RB Benson
WR AJohnson
WR SJohnson
Flex Wells
TE ZMiller
K Cundiff
Def Jets

QB McCoy
RB Tomlinson
RB Forsett
WR Green
WR Rice

Team Two:
QB Roethlisberger
RB Peterson
RB Benson
WR Fitzgerald
WR SJohnson
Flex FJones
TE ZMiller
K Cundiff
Def Eagles

QB McCoy
RB Stewart
RB Starks
WR Green
WR Rice

Team Three:
QB Roethlisberger
RB Peterson
RB Hillis
WR Fitzgerald
WR Britt
Flex Matthews
TE Keller
Def Steelers
K Cundiff

QB McCoy
RB Starks
RB TJones
WR Green
WR Thomas