Best Drama:
Will Win: Mad Men (-125)
Should Win: Breaking Bad
Mad Men's a good investment at that number; the nominations margin throughout the categories it has over the other contenders bodes well historically. I'd lean, by the narrowest of margins, Breaking Bad by my preference last season. If there's an upset, that's what will win. Big Love is also terrific, it won't win as this is its only nom, but it gives me a chance to offer that Ginnifer Goodwin is really, really good to watch on the tv set.
The Shield and Friday Night Lights would have rounded out this category nicely, and I'd have voted for the cop show.
Best Comedy:
Will Win: 30 Rock (-250)
Should Win: 30 Rock
30 Rock's a cut above every other comedy; it's got nominations advantages and has leapt past The Office as the official smart show that the tv intelligensia has embraced. Maybe the Office wins; Family Guy has had a noteworthy internet campaign to build some buzz - but it would be the biggest surprise of the night if 30 Rock didn't repeat. Even at -250 it's a good play. Of the other noms, I like HIMYM, it should have been paired with a Big Bang nom and they might have a couple year run as the dopplegangers for the NBC shows. United States of Tara could have gotten a nom - Party Down was a sneaky funny show on Starz that no one watched but I would have liked to see nominated.
Best Actor - Drama
Will Win: Bryan Cranston (+175)
Should Win: Bryan Cranston
Cranston's got a much flashier role than does Jon Hamm and that might be enough to get him across the line again, but at only +175 I'd stay away from that play. Hamm's +250 and maybe you take that plunge. Admittedly, I don't watch House (I don't watch doctor shows, all I think about is death) but I know that Hugh Laurie gets to do some scene chewing and the +400 number for him is friendly. In Treatment is a DVD show for me, so I've yet to see season two, but Gabriel Byrne was tremendous is season one, so his win wouldn't make me sad. I don't know how Michael Chiklis and Kyle Chandler aren't nominated.
Best Actress - Drama
Will Win: Glenn Close (+125)
Should Win: Elisabeth Moss
-It's hard time for some turnover in this category, we get into the soaps and the procedurals with the actress nominees; there's just a decided drop in show quality from actor to actress nominees. Close is +125 and she seems like a lock - but Moss at +500...there's a possibility Mad Men just runs over everyone, that it wins writing and directing and show, and Hamm - the chance that carries to Moss (who also is the best in the category - yay for Bookbag!) is absolutely worth the +500 investment. Connie Britton would have gotten my vote had she been nominated.
Best Actor - Comedy
Will Win: Steve Carrell
Should Win: Steve Carrell
There's an interesting investment to be made here. Alec Baldwin's the favorite, at -125, and if there's a gun to your head, you expect him to win. But word around the watercooler is his submission wasn't as strong as last year and that might open the door for the other two possibilities. Carrell (+250) has never won; and to be as big a star as he is, to have the level of acclaim that he gets, and to not have won means there might be room to slip him in this year. And the guy with the late buzz is Jim Parsons (+350), Big Bang Theory is starting to generate some traction, and this might be a moment for a real Emmy shocker. Consider the following - at those odds, an investment in both Parsons and Carrell leaves you in the black if either of them wins. This makes some sense to me.
Best Actress - Comedy
Will Win: Tina Fey (-300)
Should Win: Toni Collette
Fey's the biggest favorite on the board at -300, and she probably wins - but Toni Collette was crazy good in a show that was also pretty good around her, and she had a flashy, actor-y role such that it shouldn't surprise anyone if she were to take it. At +250 she's a nice play.
The other contest to play is best Reality-Competition where Dancing with the Stars is favored, interestingly over Amazing Race (+175). If you're unaware - Amazing Race has never lost this award, and getting an unbeaten underdog is a pretty rare occurrence.
And the rest - just picks, not making a qualitative assessment:
Reality Host - Phil Keoghan
Miniseries - Generation Kill
Made for TV Movie - Grey Gardens
Actor - Movie - Ian Mckellan
Actress - Movie - Sigourney Weaver
Variety - Saturday Night Live
Supporting Actor Comedy - Neil Patrick Harris
Supporting Actress Comedy - Amy Poehler
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