2015 Oscar Picks

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Picture - Boyhood
-I gave you some bad investment advice a couple of weeks ago, Boyhood hasn't become a larger favorite (despite, as predicted here, winning the BAFTAs) instead, Birdman's winning at all the guilds has placed it as the choice.

I'm still going Boyhood, partially because of my sense that the preference ballot means Boyhood is more likely to pick up down ballot votes than is Birdman (which seems more polarizing) and partially because my commitment bias leads to doubling down when I shouldn't.

Birdman's better.  Not by a lot, but it's better.  Boyhood's more emotionally impactful, not by a lot, but it is.  My favorite nominated movie was Whiplash.  That's more my tempo.

Actor - Eddie Redmayne
-I'm a Michael Keaton guy for 35 years, it was well into the 90s before my brother Joe and I stopped quoting Johnny Dangerously to each other.

It doesn't look like its gonna happen, BAFTA, SAG, Globes - all Redmayne.  I'd be for Keaton regardless, but the guy who should have absolutely gotten nominated is Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler, thats the best performance I saw last year.

Actress - Julianne Moore
Supporting - JK Simmons, Patricia Arquette

Those races are all over; there's not a path for an upset.

Director - Inarritu 
Inarritu won DGA, the DGA winner almost always wins.  Could be the split ballot works exactly the other way, and Birdman wins Picture and Linklater Director and there you go.  The scenario picked by most is probably Birdman wins both, second most predicted would be Birdman/Linklater, my scenario here would be the third, and the Boyhood sweep would be fourth.

Original - Budapest Hotel
Adapted - Imitation Game
Cinematography - Birdman
Production Design - Budapest Hotel
Costume Design - Budapest Hotel
Editing - Boyhood
Makeup - Budapest Hotel
Visual Effects - Interstellar
Sound Mixing - Whiplash
Sound Editing - American Sniper
Score - Theory of Everything
Song - Selma
Animated Feature - How to Train Your Dragon 2
Foreign - Ida
Doc. - Citzenfour
Animated Short - Feast
Live Action Short - Phone Call
Doc Short - Crisis Hotline

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