Super Bowl 49 Pick

Monday, January 26, 2015

Seattle +1
Under 48.5
Brady attempts under 35.5
Brady completions under 23.5
Brady longest completion under 37.5
Total Points Gostkowski under 8.5

Wilson longest completion over 37.5

Seattle 24 NE 21

I'm 7-3 against the spread in the playoffs; a year ago, I gave you Seattle +2.5 in Super Bowl 48.

This is a very tight game; let me use a basketball metaphor - Seattle's pass defense dares the referees to blow the whistles, which, in championship games, they are understandably less likely to do.  To the extent "deflategate" matters, can we stipulate that the league, were they booking the game like a wrestling match (in the way the NBA has occasionally been accused of doing) they would not desire an outcome where the Patriots are holding the title (under inflating the footballs might not be a one off occurrence).  This isn't wrestling, however, were the Seahawks, as is their wont, to challenge the officials to throw the flags, maybe they aren't so eager to throw them.  

Were I in the Seattle camp (and I'm not - a year ago, for multiple reasons, I rooted for them, even as a Niner fan, this year, I'd like to see them lose in the most painful way possible) that would be my reading of the current political climate.  Rough up the Pats receivers, hold Gronkowski on every play like he's Shaq, dare the officials to keep throwing flags.  

That drives my game pick and most of the above prop selections.  

(Boyhood wins Best Picture - I'd be happy with it or Birdman, but my favorite movie was Whiplash)

If you're interested in my historical Super Bowl work - here it is

No comments

Blogger Template created by Just Blog It