jim jividen: 09/01/2019

2019 MLB Postseason Predictions

Monday, September 30, 2019

NL:

WC: Nats over Brewers
-Now, if I were making a tournament bracket, competing against others, I'd go the other way. Why? In a knockout game, really either team can win, but a signficant % of predictions are likely to have the Nats advancing - and, there's no way I'm having the Nats advancing in the next round.

I'm not doing that, I'm just saying "the thing more likely to happen is" and the Nats are easily the better team, with the better arms, and Milwaukee is missing its best player.

NLDS: Braves over Cards
-This is also a coinflip; these teams are really evenly matched, and given there's no way I'm advancing the winner to the WS, what I'd do in a competition is see if the public is heavily leaning Braves and then go Cards. I'm not doing that, I'll take the home team

NLDS: Dodgers over Nats
-The Dodgers are the best team in the NL by a sizeable margin; I think the Nats are second best and so it's not an ideal draw if it works out this way, but it doesn't make sense to pick anyone but LA.

NLCS: Dodgers over Braves
-See that prior discussion. Caveat - anyone can win any short series. If Milwaukee is hoisting the trophy that's not miraculuous, it's baseball.

AL:

WC: A's over Rays
-Picking Oakland, rooting for Oakland to win the whole thing. Outside of the A's, it doesn't much matter to me who wins any of these series', save that I always want the Dodgers to lose every game. But I am here for Oakland to make a run.

ALDS: Yankees over Twins
-I'm super tempted to go the other way; I'm not bothering to look up any of the betting trends, but given the names on the front of the jerseys I have to believe the public is heavily on NYY and this is a far closer matchup than that. But New York is better and I'll pick them.

ALDS: Astros over A's
-Here's where my (spoiler alert) decision to pick the Dodgers to win the whole thing starts to come into focus. I think Houston, by a nose, is the best team in MLB - but the Yankees and A's are better than any of the NL opponents the Dodgers have to get by. So - while I am picking Houston to win the pennant, their route is more frought; if they're knocked off in the ALCS or even knocked off here, I'd be less surprised than if LA lost to anyone in the NL.

ALCS: Astros over Yankees
-As mentioned above

World Series: Los Angeles over Houston

NFL Picks, Week 4, 2019

Friday, September 27, 2019

Overall: 9-6

Tennessee +4 Atl win
Minn +1.5 Chi loss
NO+2.5 Dall win
Hou - 4.5 Carol loss
Ind -6.5 Oak loss

2-3
11-9

Athlete of the Month, September 2019

Monday, September 23, 2019

August is here.

Elena Della Donne. Runners-up: Rafael Nadal, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa

3/4 of the final year of the decade is in the books. Who will be 2019 Athlete of the Year?

January-James Harden
February-Stephon Gilmore
March- Sabrina Ionescu
April-Tiger Woods
May-Steph Curry
June-Kawhi Leonard
July-Megan Rapinoe

August - Mike Trout

September - Elena Della Donne

2020 NBA Wins Predictions

Sunday, September 22, 2019

I make projections. I'll adjust when the season is closer. Does feel weird not to pick the Warriors; not nearly as weird as it always felt to pick the Warriors.

Updated. Final Version.

East
1. Milwaukee 55 (under 58)
2. Philadelphia 53
3. Boston 48
4. Toronto 45
5. Indiana 44 (under 47.5)
6. Orlando 43
7. Miami 43
8. Brooklyn 42 (under 45)

9. Detroit 37
10. Chicago 36 (over 32.5)
11. Atlanta 31
12. Washington 31 (over 27.5)
13. Charlotte 26
14. NY 26
15. Cleveland 26

West
1. Houston 54
2. Denver 52
3. LAC 52 (under 54)
4. Utah 50 (under 54)
5. LAL 49
6. Golden St 47
7. Dallas 43 (over 40.5)
8. Portland 43 (under 47)

9. San Antonio 41 (under 45.5)
10. New Orleans 39
11. Minnesota 39 (over 36)
12. Sacramento 36
13. OKC 36 (over 32)
14. Phoenix 33 (over 29.5)
15. Memphis 30 (over 26.5)

NBA Finals: Houston v. Milwaukee

Top 10 Television Series (Jul-Sep, 2019)

Friday, September 20, 2019

April-June

Each year, I make a quarterly breakdown of the 10 best television series, leading to a top 20 for the year. To be considered next quarter: The Righteous Gemstones, On Becoming a God in Central Florida, Mr. Inbetween and virtually everything that's been streaming the last couple of months. I'm behind.

1. Succession (HBO)
2. Fleabag (Amazon)
3. Euphoria (HBO)
4. The Loudest Voice (Showtime)
5. Years and Years (HBO)
6. Easy (Netflix)
7. Last Chance U (Netflix)
8. Dead to Me (Netflix)
9. Baskets (FX)
10. Cobra Kai (YouTube)

If you regularly read my quarterly rankings (weird) a common refrain is that Show X had 8 good episodes in it or a full season, but then started to slide. That's dog bites man, I appreciate, but when you watch enough television, particularly in an era where there is a lot of content, it's an unavoidable pattern.

Succession is not that. Succession improved steadily over the course of S1 and has been better than that in S2. We'll see how things finish up as there are multiple episodes to go, but it sure feels like the best show on television.

That's an upset - because at the end of Fleabag S2 (which was the best show on television in it's first season) I would have given it the trophy. It remains the best half hour, although I did prefer the first season; it had a level of immediacy that just can't be recaptured. It gets tougher after that as the next three shows really could be ordered in any way. I went Euphoria for fearlessness, the Roger Ailes show for the unbelievable Russell Crowe performance, and then Years and Years, which correctly centered popular resistance as the only way through fascism and is the sharpest portraryal of our current historical moment which I've seen.

Easy is unusual; it's been an inessential program in prior seasons - and then suddenly turned into a good companion for a terrific anthology like High Maintenance. I'm a sucker for a sports documentary; Last Chance U remains strong. Dead to Me was a little broad, but a lot of fun to watch. Baskets finished up it's run - and Cobra Kai had enough good moments (every time Billy Zabka's on the screen) to slide into that last spot. I don't know if they've got Elisabeth Shue for a season three, but that would be a heck of a good idea.