2013 NFL Divisional Round Picks

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Can I just say look at last week to see my thoughts?

In the AFC, here was my projection for this round:

Ravens at Broncos
Texans at Patriots

I'm likely to favor Denver by 10 and NE by 7.  If one of those games were to go the wrong way it would be Houston upsetting NE.

That remains the case; Denver's now a ten point favorite and that's a stay away, but gun to my head I'd take the Broncos.  If you wanted to make a play, take Houston getting 9.5 (I'm not making that pick edit, I'm making that pick) or better yet wait until it gets to double digits, which I would guess will happen.  New England's better, they should win, but the disparity doesn't match the Denver/Ravens game.  

Just as I did before the playoffs began, I have the two favorites winning outright, I won't pick either ATS, but if I had to, I'd take Houston getting the points and Denver giving them.  The AFC looked pretty clear going in, still looks pretty clear, and my anticipation is I'll be saying the same thing in a week when I pick the Broncos.

And here's what I wrote about the NFC.

Seahawks at Atlanta
Packers at Niners

Does Seattle beat Atlanta?

Atl Offense: Burke 13, FO 12, PFR 2.0 - so Seattle's offense is solidly better
Atl Defense: Burke 18, FO 12, PFR 4.5 - so Seattle's defense is better.

The Seahawks are better, not by a lot, and given the Falcons home field, that's a pick em game.  I'm going to  take the Seahawks, but you could go the other way, and I might by gametime.

Do the Niners beat the Packers?

49er Offense: Burke 3, FO 5, PFR 3.5 - it's close, you'd give a small edge to the Packers, but it's small.
49er Defense: Burke 3, FO 2, PFR 6.7 - the Niners defense is better.

San Francisco's better, I'd favor them (and by them, I mean us) by 6.

And that remains the case; I still think the Seattle game's a pick 'em, and that means I will make an ATS pick - it's Seattle, getting the 2.5.  I'll keep my straight up pick of the Seahawks, 'cause there aren't any ties in the playoffs.  Seattle's better - solidly better than the Falcons, but Atlanta's rested, healthier, and has home field.  That's enough to call it a toss up, and I'll say the toss goes to Seattle (no, I'm never picking any coin flip).

My Niners are favored by 3 and I said we were 6 points better, meaning that's another ATS I'm willing to pick, Niners giving the FG.

In other words, you could have just read last week's picks and moved on with your lives.  

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