2011-2012 NBA Predictions

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

66 game schedule for the NBA starts Sunday; historically, my predictions for season long win totals are my strongest forecasts.  It's a little more up in the air this season given the circumstances, but here we go.  The sportsbook I generally use in this space when making predictions does not have season long win totals on its board; my assumption is the reduced season has made those bets hard to find.  There are lines for division winners however; so, were the win totals here to provide a possible opportunity against those lines, I'll note it.  The Simmons win totals are out today on his podcast; I've yet to listen - I whipped him pretty good last year, so that makes up for his beating me in every other conceivable metric in our lives.

Boston (40)
Philly (37)
NY (35)
NJ (28)
Toronto (23)

Celtics are -130; maybe consider a value play for the Sixers, as they're +800 to win the division.  I've got Celtics (3rd), Sixers (5th) and Knicks (6th) in the playoffs.  Nets and Raptors in the lottery.

Bulls (47)
Indy (35)
Bucks (33)
Det (25)
Cle (20)

Bulls are -3000, so no play.  They're my (2nd) seed in the East, the Pacers are (7th) and the Bucks are (8th). Pistons and Cavs in the lottery, Cleveland's the worst team in the NBA.

Heat (50)
Magic (40)
Atlanta (32)
Wash (21)
Charl (21)

Heat's -2000, no play.  They're the best team in basketball, I'll take them to win the chip.  I've got Orlando (4th) and the rest in the lottery.

Miami to beat Chicago in the Eastern finals

Spurs (40)
Mavs (38)
Memphis (35)
Houston (33)
NO (26)

The Spurs are +200, so consider that play.  They're my (2nd) seed in the West, Dallas is (5th) and Memphis is (8th).  Lottery for Rockets and Hornets.

OKC (43)
Den (39)
Port (38)
Minn (31)
Utah (28)

OKC is -400 and a pretty solid bet to win.  They're my top seed in the West; I'll say they lose in the finals to the Heat.  I've got Denver (4th), Portland (7th) and the others in the lottery.

Clippers (41)
Lakers (37)
GSW (26)
Suns (25)
Kings (25)

The Clips are getting +250, so consider that play.  I've got them (3rd) in the west, the Lakers (6th); my Warriors and the others in the lottery.

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