I Pick Every NFL Game in 2010 - Week 2 (Plus my Bonus Big Brother Pick)

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Week 1 record ATS: 9-4-3 SU: 11-5

Atlanta -6.5 Arizona (win/win)
Balt -1.5 Cinc (loss/loss)
Chiefs +1.5 Browns (win/win)
Dallas -8.5 Bears (loss/loss)
Eagles -4.5 Lions (loss/win)
Bills +13.5 Packers (GB wins game) (my suicide pick) (win/win)
Steelers +5.5 Titans (win/win)
Miami +5.5 Vikes (Vikes win game) (win/loss)
Panthers -2.5 Bucs (loss/loss)
Seattle +3.5 Denver (loss/loss)
Rams +3.5 Raiders (Oak wins game) (win/win)
Pats -2 Jets (loss/loss)
SD -7.5 Jags (win/win)
Hou -3 Wash (push/win)
NYG +5.5 Colts (Indy wins game) (loss/win)
NO -4.5 Niners (loss/win)

ATS 7-8-1, 16-12-4
SU 10-6, 21-11

Hayden wins Big Brother tonight.  Lane finishes second. 

Possible outcomes of leg 3 of HOH
-Hayden beats Lane

If Hayden beats Lane, he takes Lane.  I don't know if there is a legit final two deal between any of the final 3; but were Hayden to win another competition, a Hayden/Lane matchup is a wipeout, with only Britney as a likely Lane vote.  Regardless of jurors using a "better game play" or a "who I like the most" model of voting strategy, Hayden wins.  Throw in the feeling that Lane doesn't need the money, and I cannot see any possible scenario that Hayden does not beat Lane.

Hayden is unlikely to take Enzo, both because of the previous paragraph and because he and Lane seem  more likely to have a post-BB relationship.  In the unlikely event he does, it opens up the "Enzo is mastermind" argument which might sway Ragan/Matt/Brendon/Rachel as likely "better game play voters"  Britney/Kathy still vote Hayden.  Lane may vote Enzo in this scenario, assuming he believes he has a deal with Hayden

-Lane beats Hayden

If Lane beats Hayden, there's not a good path for him to win the game.  His matchup with Hayden becomes more favorable, as Hayden's competition record is then minimized by Lane's having won the final HOH.  Lane has Britney, let's give him Enzo in this scenario just to do.  He then just needs to split the "better game play votes" to win.  I don't think he does - I think they all go for Hayden, but their decisions are all more difficult in this scenario.  I think Lane is likely to take Hayden if he wins.

If Lane takes Enzo I think Enzo beats him, and maybe by the margin that Hayden were to beat him in the very first scenario.  Britney votes for him, Hayden might, although he might feel jilted, but Lane's competition record, even with a final HOH win, won't be seen as the equivalent of Hayden's, and while Lane is liked, he isn't liked in the way that Hayden is - and really not liked in the way that Enzo is - giving Enzo's mastermind argument a better chance to take hold in the minds of the gameplay voters.


If H d. L and H takes L - Hayden wins and it's not close. 
If H d. L and H takes E - Hayden wins I think but it's really close.
If L d. H and L takes H - Hayden wins, but it should be closer than scenario 1
If L d. H and L takes E - Enzo wins and I don't think it's close.

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