At the Quarter Pole - 2010 MLB All Star Ballot

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

We're about 40 games into the baseball season - this is really the first time I look at individual baseball statistics outside of a fantasy context.  This year the All Star rosters have 21 position players and 13 pitchers each - here, based largely on WARP3, are the players currently having the best seasons.  I'll do this again at the 60 game mark and then one last time at the 80 game mark.  I normally make sure each team is represented, 'cause that's fun to do, but haven't had time to consider it for this post (edit - upon a quick look, I think I'm just missing the Fish, I'll find a Marlin and make a switch. Second edit.  Done.)  If I get a second I'll see if I have any holes.  I'm not naming a specific DH, but the new rules have one being used every year now.  It's early enough, even at 40 games in, that there are some odd results (like backup catchers making the all star team, and the NL has middle relievers but no closers) but most of that will be sorted out by the 60 game mark.

American League:
C J. Mauer, F. Cervelli, J. Posada
1B J. Morneau, M. Caberera, K. Youkilis
2B R. Cano (MVP), D. Pedroia, T. Wigginton
SS E. Andrus, C. Pennington, A. Gonzalez
3B E. Longoria, A. Rodriguez, T. Bautista
OF C. Crawford, A. Jackson, A. Kearns
      SS Choo, V. Wells, N. Cruz
P J. Danks (Cy)
   D. Fister
   J. Pineiro
   Z. Greinke
   D. Price
   S. Marcum
   F. Liriano
   R. Romero
   A. Pettitte
   M. Garza
   J. Valverde
   J. Rauch
   R. Soriano

National League
C M. Olivo, H. Blanco, C. Ruiz
1B A. Pujols, J. Votto, A. Gonzalez
2B C. Utley (MVP)  M. Prado, D. Uggla
SS T. Tulowitzki, S. Drew, D. Eckstein
3B D. Wright, D. Freese, R. Zimmerman
OF J. Werth, A. Ethier, J. Willingham
      R. Braun, M. Byrd, M. Holliday
P U. Jimenez (Cy)
   R. Oswalt
   L. Hernandez
   R. Dempster
   R. Halladay
   Y. Gallardo
   J. Garcia
   T. Hudson
   M. Pelfrey
   A. Wainright
   T. Lincecum
   T. Clippard
   E. Meek


Blog said...

As usual, the guy leading the majors in hits gets the shaft from you. Is that because you have reasonable suspicion that his stats will tank dramatically before the Break?

Blog said...

Apparently, a league leading hits total is only worth a #173 WARP3 rating. I think that points more to a defective rating system than a defective player.

Jim said...

Without looking, I'd assume his OBP/SLG is lower than the other players at his position. Hits are good, but better if they're doubles than singles and the value of those hits are weighed against how many outs are created. Outs are bad. The most overrated type of player is a singles hitter who doesn't walk a lot at a position where power hitters play (like a corner OF). Doesn't mean Ichiro is bad - he's Tony Gwynn - he gets a ton of singles, just piles them up and all of that is good, but it just means there are other skills that better help you score runs.

I'm not doing any projecting, it's a straight evaluation of production to date. It's already changed in the 24 hours since I looked at the numbers; it's pretty fluid at 40 games in.

Blog said...

WARP3 is flawed in rating players, in that it ignores the different roles the players are asked to fill.

Ichiro is a lead-off hitter. His job is to get on base, and let others bring him home. To that end, he has an OBP of .393, the best in the majors.

He's the best in the league at what he does, yet he is also considered the 173rd best player in the league? Something isn't right there.

Blog said...

Oops...turns out I was only reading Mariner stats instead of the whole MLB. Ichiro is 20th in OBP.

I sheepishly withdraw previous comment.

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