Angels over Royals
Orioles over Tigers
Orioles over Angels
The Angels have a 12 pythag win advantage over Kansas City; they don't have any lineup holes and their biggest weakness, the health of the starting pitching, will be masked a little in a shorter series (and with Shields' unavailability until Game 3). I'll take the Angels.
The Orioles have an 8 pythag win advantage over Detroit, largely because they hit about eleven million homers this year. The Tigers starting pitching advantage is maybe a little overblown and they give back a healthy chunk with the bullpen. Baltimore shouldn't be the underdog in the series.
If the Angels rotation was a little healthier, I'd go the other way - but instead, I'll take the unlikely Baltimore Orioles to win the AL pennant.
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