Wrapping it Up - the 2012 San Francisco Giants

Thursday, October 4, 2012

You can get to 2011 here.

The Giants regular season has ended.  So, now its time to incorporate the results into the historical record.

Welcome to history - the 2012 San Francisco Giants!

I've ranked every SF Giants team in history by pythagorean record here.  The 2012 Giants went 88-74, making it either the 18th, 19th, or 20th best San Francisco team ever, depending upon the postseason result; 88 pythag wins matches the '71 team that lost in the NLCS and the '04 team that lost in the NLDS.  My current expectation is an NLDS loss, but there isn't an SFG playoff result in 2012 that would really surprise.  

I've compiled a list of every SF Giants season by WARP(now using Clay Davenport version, which should correspond more accurately with the previous work) and WAR (Baseball reference).  You can get to all of that here.

C Posey 8.8/7.2
1B Belt 2.5/2.7
2B Scutaro 2.8/2.1
SS Crawford 3.9/2.3
3B Sandoval 4.7/2
LF Cabrera 5.3/4.6
CF Pagan 5.1/4
RF Pence -.2/.1
OF Blanco .4/2
Uti Arias 2.5/1
Cain 5.7/4.3
   Bumgarner 3.3/2.2
   Vogelsong 3/1.7
   Lincecum -1.9/-1.9
   Zito .7/-.3

Cl Romo 3.2/1.8
    Casilla 1.8/.4
    Lopez .8/.6
    Affeldt 1/.7

If you add the numbers together and divide by two, that's a pretty good snapshot of for how many wins above a readily available replacement each player is responsible.  Posey was easily the Giants best position player in '12 - in fact, he was the best player in the National League in 2012.  This Posey season was pretty easily the greatest for any catcher in SFG history.

For comparison to 2010, just picking a season out of the air - here's what that club looked like:

C Posey 4.4/3.7
1B Huff 8.2/5.5
2B Sanchez 2.5/1.7
SS Uribe 1.9/1.3
SS Renteria .6/.5
3B Sandoval 1/1.3
LF Burrell 3.3/2
CF Rowand .5/.4
CF Torres 5.7/5.1
RF Schierholtz 0/.4
P Cain 4.3/3.6
Lincecum 4/2.9
Zito 1.7/.7
Sanchez 3.9/2.9
Bumgarner 2.6/2.5
Romo 2.1/1.7
Casilla 2.3/1.5
Cl Wilson 5.2/2.6 

So, we're better at catcher, as Posey is now the best player in the NL and wasn't then.  '10 was Huff's career year so we're not as good at first.  We're better at second, Scutaro's value was only compiled in like 60 games, he's hit the hell out of the ball since coming over from the Rox.  Uribe was a fluke postseason star, but Crawford's got a good glove and was better.  We had a hole at third, Sandoval had his bad year and got benched in the postseason and, although most of his value was compiled pre-injury he was better this year.  LF is a problem; Burrell was essentially Scutaro, compiling a lot of value since coming over to the club - and Melky is the opposite of that, with a ton of value that now isn't being used.  Blanco's got a good glove and I'd run him out there every game (and catch Posey every game).  Pagan's had his career year but isn't as good as Torres's career year.  We didn't get anything from RF in either season.  


Our ace in both seasons was Cain and he was better this year (although trending the wrong way).  

Bumgarner is essentially the same, but he was our fourth best starter in 2010 and is our second best this year; Vogelsong, our third best this year is not quite as good as was Sanchez, our third best in 2010; Zito was better in 2010, and Lincecum obviously had dramatically, dramatically declined.


If you want to know why I'm picking us to lose in the NLDS; that's why.

Romo's better than he was in 2010, but not as good as Wilson, and then every other spot slides down - that 2010 staff just rolls right over the 2012 staff.  In a short series anything can happen, but we profile like our teams that didn't make it out of the NL playoffs.  

We can now add this year to the career value rankings for SFG history, the number is wins above replacement, taking Davenport/B-Ref and dividing by two:

1.       Bonds 114
2.       Mays 106.25
3.       Marichal 68.6
4.       McCovey 63
5.       WClark 39.3
6.       Perry 38.55
7.       Kent 36.2
8.       Thompson 32.75
9.       Cepeda 32.35
10.   Williams 30.8
11.   Cain 30.2
12.   Bo Bonds 29.9
13.   J Clark 28.2
14.   Barr 26.85
15.   Speier 24.25
16.   Evans 23.05
17.   Lincecum 22.8
18.   Hart 21.8
19.   Lavelle 21.45
20.   Schmidt 20.05

Cain's one season from being one of the ten greatest SFG of all time; Lincecum actually falls further down the list this year.  Only Marichal and Perry have more career value as SFG pitchers than does Cain, who is almost certain to move past Gaylord after the 2014 season.  Sandoval's at 16.45, so will be looking hard at making the list after next season; Posey's at 10.45, so has at least two seasons to go before he cracks the top 20.  

And finally:

So, here's the all time SFG Roster. WARP/WAR
C Posey '12 8.8/7.2
   Dietz '70 5.4/4.2
1B Clark '89 9.8/8.5
      McCovey '70 8.1/6.2
2B Kent '00 9.4/6.9
      Kent '02 8.8/6.9
SS Aurilia '01 7.9/6.5
      Speier '72 8.5/5.9
3B Williams '93 5.9/5.6
      Hart '66 4.9/6.4
LF Bonds '01 12.6/11.6
     Bonds '02 11.7/11.6
CF Mays '64 11.2/10.7
      Mays '65 10.9/10.9
RF Bonds '73 8.6/7.7
      Bonds '71 6/1/6.4
P Marichal '65 11.4/10.1
   Marichal '66 10.6/9.5
   Marichal '63 9.1/7.8
   Marichal '69 9.3/7.5
   Lincecum '08 7.4/7.8
   Perry '70 7.9/6.6
   Lincecum '09 6.7/7.2
Cl Minton '82 7.4/5.5
    Nen '98 6.7/3.3

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