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a jim jividen blog

Here's the thing. I'm watching one of these shows on the Cooking Channel featuring food trucks. There's a Scottish expat making fish and chips; in a thick brogue he somewhat wearily explains his irritation with Americans who habitually order a side of tartar sauce: "tartar sauce is basically gherkins." That's this blog. I claim no particular insight, no revelation. If you enjoy the flavor, great, but this blog is basically gherkins.

2012 MLB Predictions

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

This is the fourth and final build; I'll revisit as we get closer to the season.  I'd feel better about my pick to win the chip if they had a different manager. My projected win total is next to the team.  As we get closer, I'll compare my win total to the Vegas win totals.  Also, MLB Network has done a Top 100 right now and a Top 10 at each position, my plan is to match all of that before Opening Day.

I have good success against the books in predicting season long win totals, where there's a play, I'll indicate.




AL East
1.       NYY 94
 n   -ex SFG: David Aardsma
2.      Bos 90WC
-    -ex SFG: Cody Ross
3.       TB 86WC
-    -ex SFG: Jeff Keppinger
4.       Tor 79
     -ex SFG: Omar Vizquel, Rajai Davis
5.       Balt 72

AL Cent
1.       Det 89 (Under 93 is a solid play)
-     Cle 79
-     -ex SFG: Chris Ray
3.       CWS 79 (Over 74.5 is worth consideration)
      -ex SFG: AJ Pierzynski, Jesse Crain
4.       Min 72
-     -ex SFG: Francisco Liriano
5.       KC 69(Under 80 is stealing money; if this is the kind of investment you ever make, really think about this one)
      -ex SFG: Jonathan Sanchez

                  AL West
                  1. Tex 96World Champions(over 92 is a good play)
                  -ex SFG: Yorvit Torrealba, Joe Nathan,
 2.  LAA 87WC(under 92.5 is a good play)
-ex SFG: Jerome Williams, LaTroy Hawkins
3. Oak 76(over 71.5 is worth consideration)
-ex SFG: Erick Threets
4. Sea 70

NL East
1.       Philadelphia 89Pennant(under 92.5 is worth consideration)
2.       Mia 89WC(over 84.5 is worth consideration)
3.       Atl 86WC
4.       Was 82
       ex-SFG: Mark DeRosa
5.       NYM 77(over 71.5 is worth thinking about)
      ex-SFG: Andres Torres, Ramon Ramirez
      

NL Cen
1.      Mil 86 
      StL 86WC
      ex-SFG: Carlos Beltran, Scott Linebrink
2.       Cin 85
3.       Pit 73
      ex-SFG: Kevin Correia, Jason Grilli
5.       Chi 73
6.       Hou 61
      ex-SFG: Matt Downs, Livan Hernandez, Henry Sosa,

NL West
1.       SFG 86
2.       Ariz 84
       Col 82
4.       LA 79
      ex-SFG: Juan Uribe
5.       SD 76:
      ex-SFG: Jesus Guzman, Will Venable's Dad.

I think Texas is the best team in baseball; they're even money to win the AL West, and that's worth an investment.  The result of the added Wild Card is there's almost no circumstance where the Yankees and Red Sox aren't in the playoffs almost every single year.  Detroit's pretty easily the best team in the Central.  That means you start the season with only 2 available playoff spots in the AL.  Putting aside the order of the six teams, my anticipation is an incredibly high percentage of prognostication will have the same six teams as do I making the AL postseason.

The NL is harder to forecast; I've got the Phillies winning the pennant, but don't see them hitting their Vegas win total. Washington/Reds/Arizona/Rockies could all take playoff spots I've given to other teams.  I think the four best teams (and maybe 5, with Detroit being the fifth) in baseball are all in the AL.  Hell, maybe the Angels are 6th.

Sports Illustrated picked a rematch of the '02 Series, with my SFG again losing to the Angels; had we re-signed Beltran and made what seems a self evident commitment to playing Belt every day that would seem more reasonable from the National League side.

The postseason is too hard to reasonably forecast, if it's Detroit or Tampa or even the Angels that wouldn't surprise.  But Texas is the best team and given the relative weakness of the West the team most likely to come out of the regular season with the best record in the AL.  The AL is the better league, so if you have to take a champ - I'll take the Rangers.

AL MVP - Pujols
AL Cy - Verlander
AL Rookie - Darvish

NL MVP - Votto
NL Cy - Halladay
NL Rookie - Harper

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