Giants v. Braves NLDS Thoughts

So, here we go.

Game 1 - Lincecum v. Lowe
Game 2 - Cain v. Hanson
Game 3 - Sanchez v. Hudson

-We were 7 1/2 games out on July 5.  The only time in SFG history we were further out and still won the division was 2000.  Beginning on that date, we played .630 ball, second only to the Phillies for best record in the majors.

-Lincecum's second only to Livan Hernandez as the youngest SFG to start game one of a playoff series.  No, it doesn't seem as if Livan Hernandez was ever 26 years old, but there it is.

-All 3 Braves starters are right handed - we went 68-50 this year against righties.

-For all the talk you'll hear analysts do about small ball and situational hitting and productive outs - when the Giants homered this season we win: 67-31.  And when we don't, we lose: 25-39.

-We led all of baseball in ERA.  Only the second SFG team ('87) ever to do so.

-Our pitching staff led all of baseball in strikeouts for consecutive seasons.  We struck out 1331 batters this year, an SFG record.

-We had the highest fielding percentage for any team in SFG history.

-When we score 3 runs or more, we have the best record in baseball.  3 runs.  That's it.  When we scored 3 or more we went 80-24.  As the postseason unfolds - if you see us hit a homer, if you see us score 3 runs, you're watching a game we are increasingly likely to win.  That's our team - we pitch the ball, we catch the ball, we hit home runs.  3 runs wins the game.

-Our guys have hit Lowe well.

Burrell: 9-25
Fontenot: 4-10 (in contrast to Sanchez, 3-17)
Renteria: 6-19
Ross: 3-10 (note that in contrast to Guillen 3-19 with seven strikeouts)
Rowand 11-23 (I don't know if Rowand makes the roster, but he hits these guys historically)
Sandoval: 4-10

Even the small sample sized guys - Torres, Uribe, have hit Lowe in their only opportunities.

-Game 2 is less promising.  We don't have a lot of at bats against Hanson, but the ones we do have aren't great, there are a lot of 0-4, 0-6, 0-7 records in small samples.

-Game 3's a mixed bag against Hudson:
Burrell: 7-34
Guillen: 3-15
Ross 2-15
Sanchez 3-21

But..
Huff 7-22
Rowand 8-21

On the other side - Infante, Lee, McCann have all hit Lincecum. Could be game 1 is higher scoring than one would anticipate.

But not Game 2, where Cain's record against them is similar to Hanson's against us.  And Sanchez has a similar split (not quite as successful) against the Braves as Hudson has against us.

This looks hard to me like a long, tight series.  I don't think I'm just being pessimistic when I say we're looking at going five.

But I do think we win.

And then the Phillies.

Edit - No Zito, no Guillen.  This is an excellent turn of events.  Curiously good decisionmaking.