Game 4

Sunday, October 31, 2010

My Lady Type Friend made this from scratch last night.  She's also crazy gorgeous.

I've outkicked my coverage a little bit.

So, the World Series is about Game 4.  A short series is hard to forecast with any level of certainty; something I say in this space over and over again is if you're investing in sports, the value is in the season long win totals - an individual game or a short series has variables outside of your ability to compute.  That said - my prediction post has been pretty good thusfar; and with that as evidence, let me suggest, the World Series is about Game 4.

I picked the Series from the inside out.  As I wrote, the matter about which I had the most confidence was Matt Cain's pitching well, and I gave us Game 2.  I was almost as confident about Colby Lewis pitching well, and more to the point, Texas having a solid advantage in Lewis/Sanchez, so I gave them Game 3.  Lincecum/Lee is largely a toss up - I liked our matchup with Lee more than did most (not 11 runs worth, or 7, I guess, that were charged to him - but I wasn't surprised we got good swings) but not enough that you'd say we beat him twice.  So I gave us Game 1 - and them Game 5.

If there was a Game 6 - Cain.  I picked it to go 6 and Cain to win the MVP.

If there's a Game 7 - look, I don't love the look of a Game 7.  I do not like this team against Colby Lewis; the game last night - that was what I expected to see.  Sanchez is not where you'd like him to be right now.  And as you could have read in my History of the San Francisco Giants in the World Series, Game 7 is not our friend.

Which is why, as I looked at the Series - the game I saw was tonight.  Tonight's the World Series.

I expect Bumgarner to be solid.  Solid enough that the debate, should we still be playing Thursday, is if he should come back on short rest to start instead of Sanchez. Bumgarner had a pronounced reverse home/road split this year; his road ERA was under 2.00.  I expect Hunter to be solid; I don't think it's a game where he can't find the plate and we're into their pen in the 4th inning.  I expect, as did I before the Series, that if there was one game that went 11 and finished like 5-4 and just made you want to kill yourself, that it would be tonight.

I hope Burrell, really, really scuffling, sits for the next couple of days.  It gives us a chance to get more left handed tonight - I'd really be in favor of seeing both Ishikawa and Schierholtz in the lineup.  Nate in right, Travis at first.  Huff DH's.  It seems like a lot of move to make when you're up 2-1 in the Series - but if there's one grievance I have with Bochy (who is getting a lot of credit for making moves in the postseason) its that he's a little shy about taking a platoon advantage.  We're a better lineup tonight (and significantly - just hugely better defensively) with Ishikawa/Schierholtz - and if they're both playing, I think you should look at that as indicative that maybe we're the team who squeaks through in Game 4.

I'm going to my mom's for the game.  I've been over for 3 postseason games this year - we've won them all.  This is the only WS game I'll be able to see with her - unless we're still playing Thursday.

Let's not play Thursday.  Okay?  I don't so much have a Game 7 in me this year.

edit - sort of like that.

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