Oscar Predictions

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

Oscars are Sunday.  I haven't seen the films, so I make no warrant about what should win.

But I can read the tea leaves.  Here's the call:

Picture: Hurt Locker
-Obviously it's a two horse race; Hurt Locker's level of campaigning got some Hollywood frownage late, which maybe brings Avatar back into it.  Nothing else is worth considering. 

Director: Kathryn Bigelow
-It's not a contest, don't consider anyone else in your pool.  Only 4 women have even been nominated for Best Director - Bigelow won the DGA, there's just no circumstance where she loses. 

Actor: Jeff Bridges
-Also not a contest. 

Actress: Sandra Bullock
-Word is it's Sidibe who is charging, and that makes sense - this is an award where, ten years from now, it will be embarrassing that Bullock won for something as trifling as Blind Side ( I did read and enjoy the book, which apparently bears no resemblance to the maudlin, red state bait, Jay Leno/Sarah Palin esque film - Michael Lewis has a new book about the financial crisis which you could consider picking up.  You can get Bullock for the same price you can get Hurt Locker, and both make sense as plays - Bridges and Bigelow are barely worth it given the expense, but it's free money. 

Best Supporting Actor/Actress: Christolph Waltz/Mo'Nique
-Waltz is the biggest Vegas favorite of the night - and the price for both is prohibitive. 

Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds/Up In the Air
-Reitman wins Adapted for Up in the Air - Original is really the first place where, if there is any chance at all that Hurt Locker punts away Picture you'll see it show up - it's 50/50 to me that Tarantino sweeps in and takes it, and I like Tarantino (although I have zero interest in seeing the film, I don't have much interest in Hurt Locker either - and I'll never see Avatar - how about that!) so I've decided to pick him.  (edit, I'm changing my mind on Oscar morning - it's Hurt Locker)

Foreign: White Ribbon
-If there's an upset it's the French film - but the German film is as favored as is Hurt Locker. 

Doc: The Cove
Animated, Score: Up
Art, Cinematography, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects - Avatar
Makeup - Star Trek
Song: The Weary Kind
Editing: Hurt Locker
Costume: Young Victoria

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