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2011 College Football Picks, Week 13

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

I went 13-3-1 last week.

I'm 77-68-4 on the season.

Bowling Green +2 Buffalo(win)
Toledo -13.5 Ball St.(win)
Arizona St. -6 Cal(loss)
Rutgers -3 UConn(loss)
Georgia Tech +6 Georgia(loss)
Mich -7 Ohio St.(loss)
WKy -6 Troy(win)
Utah St. -1.5 Nevada(win)
FIU -8.5 Mid Ten St.(win)
Missouri -23.5 Kansas(loss)
Illinois -10 Minnesota(loss)
Wake +1.5 Vandy(loss)
Marshall +1 ECU(win)
FAU +5 UAB(win)
Florida St. -2 Florida(win)
Clem +4 SCarolina(loss)

8-8
85-76-4

The Weekly Tendown November 13-19 2011

Sunday, November 20, 2011

Dear Internet:




That's the Boston Massacre.  Americans took to the streets in 1768 to protest economic oppression and were fired upon by their government.


And that was this week at UC Davis.


And Seattle.



And Portland.

It's Tendown 102.  You can get to 101 here.

1. So, What's a More Likely Proximate Cause?
Paul Ryan, you know, the "sensible" Republican, said that the problem with the American economy is "moral relativism."

Moral relativism has done so much damage to the bottom end of this country, the bottom fifth has been damaged by the culture of moral relativism more than by anything else, I would argue. If you ask me what the biggest problem in America is, I'm not going to tell you debt, deficits, statistics, economics — I'll tell you it's moral relativism.


So, it could be that.  Not enough of a moral compass in the United States, we've lost our ability to declare ideas to be objectively immoral; the congressman is saying that we now view matters of right and wrong as based on opinions as opposed to facts, thereby making us disinclined to make arguments located in morality.

Good tip.

2. This Is Objectively Wrong. Immoral as a Matter of Fact.


3. As is This


4. And This


From Rolling Stone.

Far from creating the trickle-down economics promised by Reagan, the policies pursued by the modern Republican Party are gusher up. Under the leadership of Majority Leader Eric Cantor, the House's radicalized GOP caucus is pushing a predatory agenda for a new gilded age. Every move that Republicans make – whether it's to gut consumer protections, roll back environmental regulations, subsidize giant agribusinesses, abolish health care reform or just drill, baby, drill – is consistent with a single overarching agenda: to enrich the nation's wealthiest individuals and corporations, even if it requires borrowing from China, weakening national security, dismantling Medicare and taxing the middle class. With the nation still mired in the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, Republicans have categorically rejected the one financial policy with a proven record of putting the country back on a more prosperous footing.


5. And This
This study from a German think tank finds that among advanced nations:

-The United States ranks 27th in social justice.
-The United States ranks 29th in poverty prevention.
-The United States ranks 20th in access to education.

6. And This
There's a public school social studies teacher in a Chicago suburb, who is going to lose his job for showing students clips from The Daily Show.

7. And This
Here's a quiz - the right wing constantly argues that government is too:
a. big
b. small

A firm tenet of the right wing is that issues should be decided:
a. in Washington DC, at the federal level.
b. locally

Here's what the right wing Congress passed this week.

Today the House of Representatives debated the controversial “National Right To Carry Reciprocity Act,” which would give people with concealed weapon permits in one state the right to carry their guns to 49 other states, even if it violates local gun restrictions. Proponents of the National Rifle Association-backed bill see it as an easy way to circumvent states that mandate gun training and background checks.






8. And This
Paul Ryan also argued that unlike Europe, the United States is an upwardly mobile society.



9. And This
Last night, Newt Gingrich said the Occupy protesters need to get a job.

Right now, unless something changes, in a month and a half I will have four jobs.  And no health insurance.

If the problem with the country is moral relativism, I'm willing to, on behalf of the left, abandon that position in favor of a moral condemnation of Paul Ryan and the worldview expressed in the policies of the right wing.

10. But Not This!  Some Things Are Moral Goods, Goods I Tells You.
Matt Barkley

USC 38 Oregon 35



The 49ers are 8-1.

That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time.  If there is a next time...

Your pal,

Jim

The 200 Greatest Major League Baseball Players of All Time, 2012 Ed. 101-110

Saturday, November 19, 2011

The previous ten is here.

101. Rick Reuschel 1972-91 RHP Cubs/Giants
       67.2
       ERA+114
       225-176
       MVPQ=1977
       IP=3550


102. Sam Crawford 1899-1917 RF Tigers
       67.15
       OPS+144
       .308/.367/.533
       MVPQ=none
       PA=10,600

103.  Ryne Sandberg 2B Cubs 1981-1997
        67.1
        OPS+114
        .288/.351/.481
        MVPQ=1984, 1992
        PA=9300
     
104. John Clarkson 1882-94 RHP/RF
        67.05
        ERA+134
       OPS+60
       177-127
       .217/.249/.339
        MVPQ=1886
        Inner circle=1885, 1887, 1889
        IP=4500
        PA=2050

105.  Willie McCovey 1B Giants 1958-80
        67
        OPS+147
        .280/.389/.569
        MVPQ=1969
        PA=9900


106.  Red Ruffing 1924-47 RHP Yankees/Red Sox
       66.9
       ERA+110
       247-227
       MVPQ=none
       IP=4350
   
107. Reggie Jackson A's/Yankees/Angels 1967-87 RF
       66.5
       OPS+ 139
       .269/.363/.539
       MVPQ=1969
       PA=11,400
     
108.  Bob Feller RHP Indians 1936-56
       66.5
       241-175
       ERA+122
       MVPQ=1941
       Elite=1939, 1940
       Inner circle=1946
       IP=3800

109.  Jim Palmer RHP Orioles 1965-84
       66.4
       ERA+126
       228-178
       MVPQ=1975
       IP=3950
     
110.   Derek Jeter SS Yankees 1995-
       66.3
       .309/.381/.449
        OPS+117
       MVPQ=none
       PA=11,150

If Jeter's 2012 matches his 2011 and absent injury its hard to imagine he could have a less valuable season, he will crack the top 100 at year's end.  He doesn't make the all time team; per game, Boudreau was solidly better and he retains the backup spot.

Similarly, Sandberg doesn't crack the roster either given how many more plate appearances it took for him to accumulate his value than it took for Gordon.

Stretch is in the same spot; his value advantage over Greenberg gives him a better argument than Jeter/Sandberg, but still you need to say Greenberg was the better player.

Crawford and Reggie are comparable; Crawford had a little better bat and a little more value in fewer plate appearances; so despite the absence of MVPQ season, he was a better player.  Crawford had a solidly better bat than Medwick, but without any MVPQ seasons and with 2,000 more plate appearances I think you'd lean Ducky for the backup RF spot.

Feller/Clarkson/Palmer, in that order, are pitching staff contenders.  Feller's got so many top end seasons; he slides in right after Newhouser.  In fact, let me backtrack - Clarkson was better than both of them.  Palmer can't quite beat out Whitey Ford, sitting there in the last spot on the roster, but to get to 25, I'll add him and Sam Crawford.

So - 100 players down, half of the list gone - here's the All Time MLB 25 Man Roster:

C Piazza
    Dickey
1B McGwire
     Greenberg
2B Robinson
      Gordon
SS Banks
      Boudreau
3B Allen
LF Jackson
     Flick
CF Hamilton
RF Heilmann
      Medwick
      Crawford

P Walsh
    Rivera
    Clarkson
    Newhouser(L)
    Feller
    Halladay
    Marichal
    Ford
    Palmer

Uti Caruthers

The 200 Greatest Major League Baseball Players of All Time, 2012 Ed. 111-120

The previous post is here.

111.   Billy Hamilton 1888-1901 OF Phillies/Beaneaters
        66.2
        OPS+141
        .319/.437/.463
        MVPQ=1894
        PA=7600      

112. Carlton Fisk C Red Sox/White Sox 1969-93
        65.8
        OPS+117
        .261/.339/.473
        MVPQ=none
        PA=9850

113. Roy Halladay RHP 1998- Blue Jays 
        65.75
        ERA+138
        193-121
        MVPQ=none
        IP=2500

114. Joe Cronin SS 1926-45 Red Sox/Senators
        65.55
        OPS+119
        .281/.365/.467
         Elite=1930
       PA=8800

115. Larry Walker 1989-05 RF Rockies/Expos
        65.4
        OPS+140
        .293/.384/.533
        MVPQ=none
         PA=8000
     
116. Yogi Berra C Yankees 1946-65
        65.3
        OPS+125
        .286/.343/.514
        MVPQ=none
        PA=8350

117. Mark McGwire 1B Athletics/Cardinals 1986-01
        64.9
        OPS+162
        .270/.399/.618
        MVPQ=1998
        PA=7650


118. Tim Keefe 1880-93 RHP Giants
        64.85
        ERA+127
        185-124
        Inner Circle=1883
        IP=5050
     
119. Bob Caruthers 1884-93 RHP/RF
        64.55
        ERA+123
        OPS+133
        102-81
        .269/.383/.433
         MVPQ=1888
         Elite=1889
         Inner Circle=1886, 1887
         IP=2800
         PA=2900
     
120. Juan Marichal RHP Giants 1960-75
        64.45
        ERA+123
        216-154
        MVPQ=1963
        Elite=1965, 1966
        IP=3500
     
The current all time subjective pitching staff will get shaken up following this section.  Let's start with Hamilton and his all time adjusted OPB of nearly .440; he's the new starting CF.

Fisk and Berra are both in this section; Piazza and Dickey are the current catchers on the roster.  Berra's bat puts him over Fisk and into contention, but I'll stick with Piazza and Dickey; they both had better bats, accumulated value in fewer plate appearances, and better top end seasons.

Cronin and Boudreau are really, really comparable - Boudreau's career was accumulated in significantly fewer plate appearances, so that's not going to change either.

Walker's bat compares favorably to Medwick, currently the backup RF - but Ducky's top end keeps the job.

McGwire and Greenberg are essentially the same player; McGwire's total value gets him the nod.

Now to the pitchers.  Let's rank this group in this order: Halladay, Marichal, Caruthers, Keefe.  Doc doesn't have the top end of any of the other guys, but is the best per inning pitched, Caruthers is the best two way player ever not named George Herman, Marichal and Keefe both hit you with big top ends.  Halladay/Marichal are going to slide into the all time rotation after Newhouser.  If Halladay's 2012 matches his 2011, he'd be just outside the Top 75. Keefe's not going to make it; Caruthers is going to be the 25th man on this team for as long as I can keep him there.

C Piazza
    Dickey
1B McGwire
     Greenberg
2B Robinson
     Gordon
SS Banks
      Boudreau
3B Allen
LF Jackson
      Flick
CF Hamilton
      Smith
RF Heilmann
      Medwick

Walsh
    Rivera
    Newhouser (LHP)
    Halladay
    Marichal
    Ford
    Rusie
    Vance
   
Utility: Caruthers

We still need a backup third baseman, maybe we'll get one before we are halfway through the list.  And I'm down to 8 pitchers, I'm likely to carry one more.  That would be 26 as opposed to 25, we'll see how that turns out.  









Survivor Series 2011 Preview (Plus the Top 10 Survivor Series Matches ever)

Friday, November 18, 2011

My 2011 Summer Slam preview/recap was here.



I write a quarterly preview of each of the big four WWE PPVs; Survivor Series has been the smallest of those big four, almost to the point of disappearing as of a couple of years ago.  Probably as part of the liberal elite's war on Thanksgiving. But this year, the 25th Survivor Series features the return to the ring of the biggest mainstream celebrity ever to come from the company, The Rock.



It was Survivor Series '96 where the Rock made his PPV debut, like this show, that show was at Madison Square Garden, but unlike this year, Kirk Hiner, for whom I write these quarterly previews, and I attended that show.

We saw the best match in Survivor Series history that night.

It is unlikely anything Sunday will approach 1996.  Here's the card.

1. Rock/John Cena v. Miz/Killings
-When last we left, John Cena was the company's top babyface, still booed by a sizeable percentage of the fanbase for the same reason that Kirk Hiner hated Madonna back in 1995.  Here, he's teaming with a returning Rock, in his first match in 7 years, in a program that's designed to build momentum for the Mania main event.  WWE unsurprisingly frittered away all of CM Punk's heat from the summer; some of which went to Killings and Miz, who became the primary "anti-establishment" mouthpieces; thereby converting what was edgy babyface criticism of the company into neutered, pretty typical heel whining.  Punk learned his lesson.  Trying to get people interested in WWE again.  Asshole.

In effort to stop that whining, Cena felt the need to request that his mortal enemy, Rock, join him for this match, and Rock, for reasons that escape sensible analysis, accepted.  If you're asking why WWE would spend Rock's first match in 7 years on a thrown together tag at Survivor Series against Ron Killings, it's a fair question.

Miz and Killings presumably go over when Rock and Cena fall apart; Rock getting pinned by Miz would both allow for a launching point to Mania and give Miz something to crow about in promos for the rest of his career.  The MegaPowers teaming  is probably the only reason why anyone will buy this show, but this is not a match likely to yield a lot of workrate.(3 stars, they put the babyfaces over, Rock getting the fall. It was fine. Crowd killed Cena; they played into it; Rock Bottom postmatch.)

2. WWE Title Match: Alberto Del Rio © vs. CM Punk
-When last we left, Punk and Cena were blowing off their feud with a 4 star title v title match at Summer Slam that immediately segued into Alberto Del Rio's cashing in his money in the bank briefcase to take the belt.  Del Rio and Cena switched and switched back subsequent, meaning Del Rio is on his second stint as WWF Champ.  Del Rio actually regained the belt by pinning Punk in a 3 way with Cena, so its following multiple pinfall losses to Del Rio on PPV that Punk gets this rematch.  No, not a lot of steam behind this match, no.  Punk's own fault; he's only been in 4 of the 10 best matches in WWE this year.  He looks like a Waffle House cook by the way.  


This will be the best match of the night; a title switch makes sense, and then a switch back to Del Rio next month in time for him to give it back to Cena before Mania.  (3 1/2 stars and a spot at the back of the the all time Survivor Series list; Punk went over; a little shorter than ideal.)


3. Smackdown Title Match: Mark Henry © vs. The Big Show
-When last we left, Christian was dropping the Smackdown title to Orton in what has been the second best WWE match in 2011; Orton then dropped to Henry, getting a monster heel push.  As part of that push, he put the Show out of action; he has now returned, and here we are.  This will not be a good match.  I'll say Henry keeps; it would not surprise if Daniel Bryan (Bryan Danielson, the best wrestler in the hemisphere) unsuccessfully attempted to cash in his money in the bank briefcase, which would probably serve as a heel turn.  I'd say it would be a burial, but that would imply he was currently above ground.  (No Danielson presence, outside of chants from the crowd; no Foley presence either, even though he's back and they were at MSG.  Henry kept, they did an injury angle with him postmatch.  This was not good to watch.)


4. US Title: Dolph Ziggler v. John Morrison
-Speaking of burials.  When last we left, Dolph Ziggler (managed by Eddy's widow) was US Champion, where he remains.  He lost a recent TV match to John Morrison, who, like Bryan, hadn't been so much doing a losing streak gimmick as he had just been losing.  Morrison's gotten in trouble for dating the wrong person, tweeting the wrong ideas, and generally being a good wrestler in the wrong ways - his deal apparently is coming to an end, so either he re-ups and wins this match or (more likely) a loss here finishes up his run.  He heads to TNA, gets pushed for a month, loses to Bischoff's kid and then gets sentenced to the X division ghetto.  (3 stars, Ziggler keeps in a short match; Zach Ryder gets bigger pop than he deserves in a postmatch run in)


5. Survivor Series Elimination Match: Randy Orton , Mason Ryan, Kofi Kingston, Sin Cara, Sheamus vs. 
Wade Barrett, Cody Rhodes, Dolph Ziggler, Jack Swagger & Hunico


-Orton captains the babyface team; Ryan is a typical crappy gassed up WWE superstar; Kingston is half of the tag champs, his partner, Evan Bourne (Matt Sydal) is currently on a drug suspension, Sin Cara is Mistico, who had been on a drug suspension, and Sheamus is good and pale.  


They will win.  Maybe Orton, Ryan, Sheamus all survive.  


-Barrett's a good enough heel, as is Cody, a legit injury to Christian moves Ziggler into his second match of the evening along with Swagger (they are now stablemates, both managed by Vicki, echoing a partnership I've been doing for a couple of years now in the Counterfactual). .  Hunico was the fake Sin Cara during his suspension, then lost his mask and is now just a guy in a wifebeater.  


They will lose. (They didn't; Cody and Barrett survived a long mediocre match; Mistico blew out his knee in the first highspot.)


6. Women will also wrestle.  (I didn't watch).  


You gotta really want to see the Rock to be interested in buying this show; if given time Ziggler/Morrison would be good, and it's entirely possible that Punk/Del Rio will wind up cracking the below list of the ten best Survivor Series matches of all time. Those are the matches I'll be looking for (that and who I get to use for the Counterfactual) but the buyrate is solely about the Rock.  


Here's the list.


Top 10 Survivor Series Matches of All Time:
1. Bret Hart d. Steve Austin ('96)
2. Bret Hart d. Shawn Michaels ('92)
3. Bret Hart d. Diesel ('95)
4. Shawn Michaels d. Bret Hart ('97)
5. Eddy/Chavo d. Angle/Benoit and Edge/Rey ('02)
6. Jericho/Christian/Orton/Steiner/Henry d. Michaels/RVD/Booker/Dudleys ('03)
7. Sid d. Shawn Michaels ('96)
8. Strike Force/Young Stallions/Rougeaus/Bees/Bulldogs d. Hart Foundation/Islanders/Demolition/Bolsheviks/New Dream Team ('87)
9. Bob Backlund d. Bret Hart ('94)
10. CM Punk d. Alberto del Rio ('11)




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