2017 MLB Postseason Predictions
Tuesday, October 3, 2017
AL
I'll take the Yankees over the Twins in the knockout game, NYY has an enormous pythag advantage on the Twins, and Santana's a fly ball pitcher against a slugging Yankee lineup.
I took Houston to win the pennant before the season, and they have a slight pythag advantage over Boston, plus the Verlander addition. The Yankees are a sleeper pennant winner, and that means a really live dog against Cleveland, but the Indians are the best team in baseball and they get my nod to beat New York, then beat Houston and win the pennant again.
NL
Arizona's better and they're throwing Greinke. That's my knockout pick.
I'm always higher on LA in the postseason than recent years warrant, that could be availability bias at watching them (and especially Kershaw) beat us so often, but I'll take them over Arizona.
The Nats are a tick better than the Cubs and are getting Harper back, this is a real coin flip but that's who I'll take. I picked LA before the season and I'll stick with the Dodgers.
That would mean and Indians/Dodgers series and I'll say it's Cleveland.
October 3 - Top 5 Moments in San Francisco Giants History
Yesterday
What is this all about?
Here's every October 3 game that mattered in San Francisco Giants history (and one that didn't)
1962 at Los Angeles, it's Game 165, game 3 of a 3 game playoff to decide the National League Champion. Marichal for the good guys, Johnny Podres for the Dodgers. 45,000+ in Chavez Ravine on a Wednesday afternoon. We put a man on second with one out in the first - but Podres got both Felipe and Mays to ground back to the mound. The Dodgers got a man on second with nobody out in the bottom - and then Marichal got 3 straight pop ups. Nobody reached again until the third. Jose Pagan led off with a single, Marichal tried to bunt him over, Podres threw it away and we had runners on the corners with nobody out. Harvey Kuenn then singled on a 1-2 pitch to score Pagan and we were up 1-0. Roseboro tried to pick Marichal off at second, but he threw it away, Marichal reached third - and then he scored on a Chuck Hiller sac fly. We could have gotten more, but with the bases loaded and one out, Podres got Cepeda 4-6-3.
LA got one back in the 4th, Duke Snider and Tommy Davis opened with hits and a Frank Howard sac fly made it 2-1. We loaded the bases with nobody out in the 6th, Ed Roebuck came on to get a groundout from Pagan and a double play from Marichal to snuff out the threat. And then in their half LA took the lead, Snider singled and Davis hit a 2 run homer, and we're heading to the 7th down 3-2 and 9 outs from elimination.
In the next inning it got worse, Maury Wills singled, stole second, stole third, and scored on Ed Bailey's throwing error - when we went down in order in the 8th, down 4-2, our chances of winning were 6%. Then they loaded the bases, Don Larsen came on and with Davis on third we intentionally walked back to back men to load the bases to face Roebuck - who LA left in -- and he grounded out to end the inning. Roebuck came over from Brooklyn, he was excellent in '57 and '60 - but only good with a 118 ERA+ in '62, but still it was thought preferable to leave him in to hit so he could face the Giants in the 9th.
Okay. 9th inning. Down 4-2. Matty Alou leads off with a single. Harvey Kuenn hits into a forceout, so he replaces Alou on the bases with one out. Willie McCovey walks (he was pinch hitting, McCovey didn't start against lefties in '62) and then so does Felipe Alou.
That means Mays. We're down 4-2 in the 9th, bases loaded. One out - they leave in Roebuck to face Mays - who singles, scoring one - and now it's 4-3, bases still loaded, still one out. Stan Williams comes on to face Cepeda - who hits into a sac fly and now the score is tied with 2 out. A wild pitch moved Mays up a base, and an intentional walk to Ed Bailey (maybe don't do that, you know?) loaded them - Williams then walked Jim Davenport, scoring the go ahead run. Larry Burright then kicks a Pagan ground ball and we add the insurance. Billy Pierce comes on - gets the Dodgers in order. The Giants win the pennant. The World Series starts tomorrow.
1964 the Cards lose, if we beat the Cubs we move 1 game out of first with 1 to play. We're down 7-5 in the 8th, Billy Williams hit a 3 run homer off Billy Pierce to make it 10-5, Mays hit a 2 run homer in the 9th, but it wasn't enough and we're eliminated.
1971 NLCS Game Two home vs. Pirates, we won Game 1, we send John Cumberland out for Game 2 against Dock Ellis. We were up 2-1 headed to the 4th (40 year old Willie Mays drove in the first run with a double) and the Pirates scored the next 7 (Don Carrithers gave up 3 earned and didn't get an out). Bob Robertson hit two homers, we lose 9-4 and the series is even headed to Pittsburgh on 10-5.
1982 home vs. Dodgers, here's the game that doesn't matter, we lost the first two to LA and got eliminated yesterday, our season's done - but the Dodgers are 1 behind the Braves coming in to game 162. Atlanta loses. So - if the Dodgers win they force a playoff. 2-2 with 2 on and 2 out in the bottom of the 7th, Joe Morgan hits a 3 run homer off Terry Forster. We only got 5 hits but we win this one 5-3 and end the Dodgers' season.
1987 NL West Champs (clinched 9-28, postseason starts 10-6)
1989 NL West Champs (clinched 9-27, postseason starts 10-4)
1993 - Joe Morgan was October 3, the '62 pennant was October 3, Bobby Thomson was October 3.
But so was Salomon Torres. Game 162, the Braves win - so we need to complete the 4 game sweep in LA to maintain pace and force a playoff. The Dodgers beat us 12-1, Torres only gave up 3 earned in 3 1/3, both Dave Burba (4 earned in 1 and a third) and Dave Rightetti (4 earned in a third of an inning) had much worse games. We only got 6 hits, they got 14 and just blitzed us, ending our season.
1997 NLDS home vs. Marlins, we're down 2-0 and they sweep us clean out of the season in the first Candlestick playoff game of the 90s. A Jeff Kent homer put us up 1-0 through 5 but with 2 out in the 6th Devon White hit a grand slam off of Wilson Alvarez. We lost 6-2 and were eliminated.
2000 NL West Champs (postseason starts tomorrow)
2001 at Houston we're chasing Arizona, 2 back with 5 left, we score 9 in the last 4 innings and win 11-8 (despite giving up 5 in the 9th, thanks Wayne Gomes) Jeff Kent hit the big blow, a two run 7th inning single to give us a 6-3 lead. Arizona wins too - now just 4 to play and still 2 back.
2002 Game 2 NLDS at Atlanta, we won Game 1, the Braves even it up here. Kirk Rueter gets hammered, 6 earned in 3 innings. We hit 3 homers, but they were all solo shots and we lose 7-3. We go home for Game 3.
2003 Game Three NLDS at Marlins we split the first two at home, now we head to Miami where 6 years prior we lost both games with walk off hits (I attended both, the only two Giants playoff games I had ever attended, of course, I'm back in the park for this one, and obviously there's no way I could relieve the nightmare from '97...right?....right?...) This one is 4+ hours on a Friday night, a Pudge Rodriguez first inning homer off Kirk Rueter gave the Fish a 2-0 lead, we came back and tied it with 3 singles in the 6th. We put them on the corners with two out in the 9th but Ugeth Urbina got Yorvit Torrealba to line to right. We got 2 on with 2 out in the 10th - but Carl Pavano got Marquis Grissom to ground out. Then came the bottom of the 10th - Tim Worrell loaded the bases - but got Lenny Harris to pop up. Then we won the game in the top of the 11th, Aurilia walked, Barry reached on an error, Edgardo Alfonzo drove home the game winning run. Right? Isn't that what happened? Sure, it would have been nice to score more, and we could have, we had the bases loaded with 1 out, but Braden Looper got both Jose Cruz and JT Snow. Worrell stayed on in the bottom of the 11th, he opened by getting Jeff Conine to fly to left...which Cruz just flat dropped. Alex Gonzalez walked. They moved the runners over. We put Juan Pierre on - bases loaded, 1 out - Worrell got a Luis Castillo groundout - and then Pudge Rodriguez beat us with a base hit. We go down 2-1 and are a game from elimination.
2004 a game out of the WC on the last day of the season, we shut out the Dodgers 10-0 - but Houston wins and we're eliminated.
2010 home vs. Padres, we're 1 up on the last day of the season, we need to win to avoid a playoff, Jonathan Sanchez and 5 relievers give up just 4 hits and we shut the Padres out 3-0. Sanchez added a triple and scored the game's first run. We were 6.5 out in late August, but now the Giants are NL West Champs and we're headed to the playoffs for the first time in 7 seasons.
2012 NL West Champs (postseason starts 10-6)
2014 Game One NLDS at Washington - we beat the Pirates in the knockout game and now head to DC for Game one in a best 3 of 5. Jake Peavy and 5 relievers give up just 5 hits and we win 3-2. The big spot was the bottom of the 8th, we're up 3-2 but the Nationals have 2 on and 1 out. Sergio Romo strikes out Ian Desmond and then faces Bryce Harper - he gets him to ground to first to end the threat - Santiago Casilla gets them in order in the bottom of the 9th and we go up 1-0.
2016 NL Wild Card (clinched 10-2, postseason starts 10-5)
See you tomorrow. Go Giants!
What is this all about?
Here's every October 3 game that mattered in San Francisco Giants history (and one that didn't)
1962 at Los Angeles, it's Game 165, game 3 of a 3 game playoff to decide the National League Champion. Marichal for the good guys, Johnny Podres for the Dodgers. 45,000+ in Chavez Ravine on a Wednesday afternoon. We put a man on second with one out in the first - but Podres got both Felipe and Mays to ground back to the mound. The Dodgers got a man on second with nobody out in the bottom - and then Marichal got 3 straight pop ups. Nobody reached again until the third. Jose Pagan led off with a single, Marichal tried to bunt him over, Podres threw it away and we had runners on the corners with nobody out. Harvey Kuenn then singled on a 1-2 pitch to score Pagan and we were up 1-0. Roseboro tried to pick Marichal off at second, but he threw it away, Marichal reached third - and then he scored on a Chuck Hiller sac fly. We could have gotten more, but with the bases loaded and one out, Podres got Cepeda 4-6-3.
LA got one back in the 4th, Duke Snider and Tommy Davis opened with hits and a Frank Howard sac fly made it 2-1. We loaded the bases with nobody out in the 6th, Ed Roebuck came on to get a groundout from Pagan and a double play from Marichal to snuff out the threat. And then in their half LA took the lead, Snider singled and Davis hit a 2 run homer, and we're heading to the 7th down 3-2 and 9 outs from elimination.
In the next inning it got worse, Maury Wills singled, stole second, stole third, and scored on Ed Bailey's throwing error - when we went down in order in the 8th, down 4-2, our chances of winning were 6%. Then they loaded the bases, Don Larsen came on and with Davis on third we intentionally walked back to back men to load the bases to face Roebuck - who LA left in -- and he grounded out to end the inning. Roebuck came over from Brooklyn, he was excellent in '57 and '60 - but only good with a 118 ERA+ in '62, but still it was thought preferable to leave him in to hit so he could face the Giants in the 9th.
Okay. 9th inning. Down 4-2. Matty Alou leads off with a single. Harvey Kuenn hits into a forceout, so he replaces Alou on the bases with one out. Willie McCovey walks (he was pinch hitting, McCovey didn't start against lefties in '62) and then so does Felipe Alou.
That means Mays. We're down 4-2 in the 9th, bases loaded. One out - they leave in Roebuck to face Mays - who singles, scoring one - and now it's 4-3, bases still loaded, still one out. Stan Williams comes on to face Cepeda - who hits into a sac fly and now the score is tied with 2 out. A wild pitch moved Mays up a base, and an intentional walk to Ed Bailey (maybe don't do that, you know?) loaded them - Williams then walked Jim Davenport, scoring the go ahead run. Larry Burright then kicks a Pagan ground ball and we add the insurance. Billy Pierce comes on - gets the Dodgers in order. The Giants win the pennant. The World Series starts tomorrow.
1964 the Cards lose, if we beat the Cubs we move 1 game out of first with 1 to play. We're down 7-5 in the 8th, Billy Williams hit a 3 run homer off Billy Pierce to make it 10-5, Mays hit a 2 run homer in the 9th, but it wasn't enough and we're eliminated.
1971 NLCS Game Two home vs. Pirates, we won Game 1, we send John Cumberland out for Game 2 against Dock Ellis. We were up 2-1 headed to the 4th (40 year old Willie Mays drove in the first run with a double) and the Pirates scored the next 7 (Don Carrithers gave up 3 earned and didn't get an out). Bob Robertson hit two homers, we lose 9-4 and the series is even headed to Pittsburgh on 10-5.
1982 home vs. Dodgers, here's the game that doesn't matter, we lost the first two to LA and got eliminated yesterday, our season's done - but the Dodgers are 1 behind the Braves coming in to game 162. Atlanta loses. So - if the Dodgers win they force a playoff. 2-2 with 2 on and 2 out in the bottom of the 7th, Joe Morgan hits a 3 run homer off Terry Forster. We only got 5 hits but we win this one 5-3 and end the Dodgers' season.
1987 NL West Champs (clinched 9-28, postseason starts 10-6)
1989 NL West Champs (clinched 9-27, postseason starts 10-4)
1993 - Joe Morgan was October 3, the '62 pennant was October 3, Bobby Thomson was October 3.
But so was Salomon Torres. Game 162, the Braves win - so we need to complete the 4 game sweep in LA to maintain pace and force a playoff. The Dodgers beat us 12-1, Torres only gave up 3 earned in 3 1/3, both Dave Burba (4 earned in 1 and a third) and Dave Rightetti (4 earned in a third of an inning) had much worse games. We only got 6 hits, they got 14 and just blitzed us, ending our season.
1997 NLDS home vs. Marlins, we're down 2-0 and they sweep us clean out of the season in the first Candlestick playoff game of the 90s. A Jeff Kent homer put us up 1-0 through 5 but with 2 out in the 6th Devon White hit a grand slam off of Wilson Alvarez. We lost 6-2 and were eliminated.
2000 NL West Champs (postseason starts tomorrow)
2001 at Houston we're chasing Arizona, 2 back with 5 left, we score 9 in the last 4 innings and win 11-8 (despite giving up 5 in the 9th, thanks Wayne Gomes) Jeff Kent hit the big blow, a two run 7th inning single to give us a 6-3 lead. Arizona wins too - now just 4 to play and still 2 back.
2002 Game 2 NLDS at Atlanta, we won Game 1, the Braves even it up here. Kirk Rueter gets hammered, 6 earned in 3 innings. We hit 3 homers, but they were all solo shots and we lose 7-3. We go home for Game 3.
2003 Game Three NLDS at Marlins we split the first two at home, now we head to Miami where 6 years prior we lost both games with walk off hits (I attended both, the only two Giants playoff games I had ever attended, of course, I'm back in the park for this one, and obviously there's no way I could relieve the nightmare from '97...right?....right?...) This one is 4+ hours on a Friday night, a Pudge Rodriguez first inning homer off Kirk Rueter gave the Fish a 2-0 lead, we came back and tied it with 3 singles in the 6th. We put them on the corners with two out in the 9th but Ugeth Urbina got Yorvit Torrealba to line to right. We got 2 on with 2 out in the 10th - but Carl Pavano got Marquis Grissom to ground out. Then came the bottom of the 10th - Tim Worrell loaded the bases - but got Lenny Harris to pop up. Then we won the game in the top of the 11th, Aurilia walked, Barry reached on an error, Edgardo Alfonzo drove home the game winning run. Right? Isn't that what happened? Sure, it would have been nice to score more, and we could have, we had the bases loaded with 1 out, but Braden Looper got both Jose Cruz and JT Snow. Worrell stayed on in the bottom of the 11th, he opened by getting Jeff Conine to fly to left...which Cruz just flat dropped. Alex Gonzalez walked. They moved the runners over. We put Juan Pierre on - bases loaded, 1 out - Worrell got a Luis Castillo groundout - and then Pudge Rodriguez beat us with a base hit. We go down 2-1 and are a game from elimination.
2004 a game out of the WC on the last day of the season, we shut out the Dodgers 10-0 - but Houston wins and we're eliminated.
2010 home vs. Padres, we're 1 up on the last day of the season, we need to win to avoid a playoff, Jonathan Sanchez and 5 relievers give up just 4 hits and we shut the Padres out 3-0. Sanchez added a triple and scored the game's first run. We were 6.5 out in late August, but now the Giants are NL West Champs and we're headed to the playoffs for the first time in 7 seasons.
2012 NL West Champs (postseason starts 10-6)
2014 Game One NLDS at Washington - we beat the Pirates in the knockout game and now head to DC for Game one in a best 3 of 5. Jake Peavy and 5 relievers give up just 5 hits and we win 3-2. The big spot was the bottom of the 8th, we're up 3-2 but the Nationals have 2 on and 1 out. Sergio Romo strikes out Ian Desmond and then faces Bryce Harper - he gets him to ground to first to end the threat - Santiago Casilla gets them in order in the bottom of the 9th and we go up 1-0.
2016 NL Wild Card (clinched 10-2, postseason starts 10-5)
See you tomorrow. Go Giants!
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