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2021 MLB Postseason Predictions

Monday, October 4, 2021

 Hey, maybe you've heard, the MLB playoffs start this week.  I'm picking who you think I'm picking.


AL Wild Card: Boston

NL Wild Card: Los Angeles

There's not much analysis to do in a coin flip game, I'm picking the home teams.

AL: Tampa over Boston
       Houston over Chicago
       Tampa over Houston

The Rays were solidly the best team in the AL this season, that doesn't mean they necessarily go over, Altuve/Correa/Bregman is dangerous in any series, but there's no reason not to take the best team.  

NL: San Francisco over LA
       Atlanta over Milwaukee
       San Francisco over Atlanta

World Series: San Francisco over Tampa

Okay.  The best team is the Dodgers; if you were ranking, the Giants are closer to the next group than they are to the Dodgers; it's an organization on an unbelievable roll; they had 109 pythagorean wins this season, coming off a World Championship, coming multiple 100+ pythagorean seasons.  Anyone picking the Dodgers is making a good decision; I pick them to win the pennant every season.  

But....I'm a Giants fan; and if we had won 90 games and were sitting in the knockout round, I would not pick the Giants - but the Giants won 107 games and if you're a Giants fan and the Giants win 107 games you pick the Giants.  

The season is a success regardless of outcome; the Giants had a .635 pythagorean winning %, their highest since 1917, it is the best regular season Giants team since the move west by a solid margin, .608 (3 way tie) was the best prior mark. It's absolutely true that anything less than a title will be disappoining, a loss to LA will be particularly bitter - but in the long sweep of history, a 107 win regular season will sit on top of the baseball reference page for a while.  

And if we close this out?  I mean...

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