I gave you the Boardwalk Empire/Steve Buscemi upsets at the Golden Globes.
I gave you the two Lady Antebellum upsets at the Grammys.
Unfortunately, I'm taking chalk in the top 6 awards; so I don't see the type of investment opportunities that (hopefully) you wisely took advantage of in those two previous shows.
Here are my Oscar picks.
Picture: King's Speech
-I'd prefer Social Network to win, but the guild awards have a strong predictive value, and you have to pick that it goes this way.
Actor - Colin Firth
-not a contest
Actress - Natalie Portman
-there's Bening sentiment, but it's not a likely outcome
Director - David Fincher
-51/49 over Hooper; this is the first award of the list on which you could invest, but I don't feel any more strongly about the outcome than the price you'd pay to make the investment.
Supporting - Christian Bale, Melissa Leo
-There's Rush sentiment, but Bale's likelihood is somewhere between Firth (mortal lock) and Portman. Sup.Actress is the one likely to blow up your pool, Leo beat Steinfeld in Globes and SAG, so you have to take her under any predictive model, but if I get any of these top 6 wrong, this will be the one and they'll give it to the little girl.
Screenplay/Screenplay: Social Network, King's Speech
-no chance it doesn't go this way.
Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Foreign: In a Better World
Documentary: Inside Job
I feel pretty good about all of this; TS3 is a lock; there's a three way race for foreign, but the Danish film has the best predictive model - and while my favorite movie last year was Exit Through the Gift Shop, Inside Job is a pretty solid pick.
Score: King's Speech
Song: We Belong Together
I'm taking an upset in Score, where Trent Reznor is favored for Social Network.
Art Direction: Inception
And I'm taking an upset there, where Alice In Wonderland is viewed more favorably.
Cinematography: True Grit
Costume: Alice in Wonderland
Makeup: The Wolfman
Sound Editing/Mixing: Inception, Inception
Visual Effects: Inception
Film Editing: Social Network
Doc Short: Strangers No More
Animated Short: Day&Night
Live Actions Short: Wish 143
