February, 2024 Athlete of the Month

 January

Patrick Mahomes.  Runners-up: Chris Jones, Caitlin Clark, Auston Matthews

Two down, 10 left, who will be 2024 Athlete of the Year?

Jan-Travis Kelce

Feb- Patrick Mahomes

2024 Top 100 MLB Prospects

 

1. Jackson Holliday  Balt  SS                         

2. Jackson Chourio   Mil   OF                       

3. Junior Caminero  TB    3B                        

4. Wyatt Langford      Tex   OF                      

5. Dylan Crews         Wash  OF                                

6. Evan Carter           Tex   OF                       

7. Ethan Salas           SD    C                          

8. Paul Skenes           Pit    RHP                    

9. Jordan Lawlar      Ari    SS                          

10. James Wood         Wash  OF                    

11. Walker Jenkins     Min   OF                    

12. Colson Montgomery  CWS  SS              

13. Samuel Basallo    Balt   C                       

14. Jackson Merill      SD     SS                       

15. Roman Anthony   Bos   OF                     

16. Pete Crow Armstrong  ChiC  OF          

17. Jackson Jobe       Det     RHP                  

18. Max Clark               Det     OF                  

19. Andrew Painter    Phi    RHP                 

20. Carson Williams   TB      SS                    

21. Coby Mayo           Balt   3B                      

22. Noelvi Marte         Cin      SS/3B           

23. Kyle Harrison            SF    LHP              

24. Marcelo Mayer        Bos    SS                 

25. Ricky Tiedemann   Tor    LHP                  

26. Cade Horton           Chi    RHP                  

27. Colt Keith               Det      3B              

28. Masyn Winn              StL            SS                       

29. Jeferson Quero          Mil      C              

30. Matt Shaw             Chi    IF                     

31. Brooks Lee                   Minn      SS            

32. Jasson Dominguez     NYY    OF           

33. Jett Williams          NYM   SS                 

34. Heston Kjerstad          Bal      1B           

35. Emmannuel Rodriguez   Min        OF                

36. Chase DeLauter      Cle      OF              

37. Adael Amador        Col       SS                 

38. Cole Young                     Sea            SS                  

39. Harry Ford                Sea     C                 

40. Termarr Johnson                         Pit              2B        

41. Curtis Mead                 TB      2B/3B           

42. Rhett Lowder             Cin      RHP                  

43. Jacob Misiorowski         Mil             RHP            

44. Drew Gilbert           NYM    OF             

45. Noah Schultz             CWS         LHP                    

46. Colt Emerson            Sea         SS                

47. Kyle Teel                      C     Bos               

48. Spencer Jones          NYY     OF            

49. Marco Luciano           SF         SS           

50. Dylan Lesko                SD     RHP                 

51. Tyler Black                 Mil               IF                     

52. Sebastian Walcott              Tex             SS               

53. Jared Jones                     Pit                RHP          

54. Tommy Troy              Ari       IF               

55. Tink Hence                 StL            RHP              

56. Robby Snelling          SD              LHP            

57. Jace Jung                       Det               2B                

58. Brady House                    Wash          3B               

59. Ceddanne Rafaela       Bos           OF/SS          

60. Dalton Rushing          LAD    C             

61. Colton Cowser           Balt        OF             

62. Kevin Alcantara                Chi               OF           

63. Owen Caissie                Chi               OF                

64. Josue  De Paula            LAD  OF                  

65. Brayan Rocchio                Cle                 SS         

66. Kyle Manzardo          Cle       1B           

67. Hurston Waldrerp   Atl RHP                

68. Luisangel Acuna               NYM            IF                   

69. Noble Meyer                    Mia            RHP            

70. Drew Thorpe             SD    RHP                  

71. Chase Dollander                           Col         RHP              

72. Xavier Isaac                  TB              1B                  

73. Michael Busch                Chi              2B              

74. Roderick Arias              NYY               SS            

75. Carson Whisenhunt        SF            LHP                

76. Mick Abel                        Phi                 RHP        

77. Chase Hampton        NYY          RHP                 

78. Druw Jones                         Ari               OF             

79. Connor Phillips                Cin             RHP             

80. Edgar Quero                     CWS            C           

81. Jordan Wicks                                 Chi            RHP              

82. Cade Cavalli                              Wash       RHP   

83. Orelvis  Martinez                           Tor            IF         

84. Bryce Eldridge                                SF              1B/RHP              

85. Victor Scott                   StL                 OF          

86. Nick Frasso                    LAD              RHP            

87. Thayron Liranzo             LAD             C    

88. Ryan Clifford                      NYM           OF/1B         

89. Enrique Bradfield                   Bal             OF           

90. Yanquiel Fernandez                  Col              OF   

91. Christian Scott                            NYM       RHP         

92. Nolan Schanuel                          LAA          1B        

93. Tekoah Roby                                StL              RHP          

94. Parker Meadows            Det                CF      

95. Joey Ortiz                         Balt              SS          

96. Will Warren                    NYY               RHP      

97. Edwin Arroyo                 Cin                  SS        

98. Bryan Ramos                  CWS             3B              

99. Daniel Espino                   RHP              Cle         

100. Bubba Chandler                 RHP          Pitt             

All Time Mets Roster

 Through 2023.

 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each time has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  

Starting Lineup v RH

C M.Piazza 

1B K.Hernandez (L)

2B J.McNeil (L)

SS J.Reyes (S)

3B D.Wright

LF B.Nimmo (L)

CF C.Beltran (S)

RF D.Strawberry (L)

DH M.Conforto (L)

Starting Lineup v LH

C M.Piazza

1B K.Hernandez (L)

2B E.Alfonzo 

SS J.Reyes (S)

3B D.Wright

LF C.Jones

CF C.Beltran (S)

RF D.Strawberry (L)

DH P.Alonso 

Reserves

C J.Stearns

SS F.Lindor (S)

3B/SS H.Johnson (S)

LF/CF M.Wilson (S)

Olerud/Harrelson would both be on if not for the likelihood of Alonso/Lindor gaining value. 

Starting Pitchers

T.Seaver

D.Gooden

J.DeGrom

J.Koosman (L)

S.Fernandez (L)

Bullpen

J.Franco (L)

A.Benitez

D.Cone

J.Matlack (L)

A.Leiter (L)

Top 8 in both b-ref and Fangraphs WAR and the two saves leaders.  

All Time Brewers Roster

 Through 2023.

 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each time has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  

Starting Lineup v RH

C BJ Surhoff (L)

1B C.Cooper (L)

2B P.Molitor

SS R.Yount

3B D.Money

LF R.Braun

CF G.Thomas

RF C.Yelich (L)

DH B.Oglivie (L)

Starting Lineup v LH

C J.Lucroy 

1B G.Scott

2B P.Molitor

SS R.Yount

3B J.Cirillo

LF R.Braun

CF G.Thomas

RF C.Yelich (L)

DH D.Money

Reserves

2B/3B J.Gantner

SS W.Adames

LF G.Jenkins

CF C.Gomez

Pretty good fight over the last two spots, Gomez/Oglivie kept over Lezcano/Fielder.  Adames ability to continue to add value gets him the backup shortstop spot.

Starting Pitchers

B.Sheets

T.Higuera (L)

C.Bosio

B.Woodruff

M.Caldwell (L)

Bullpen

D.Plesac (L)

J.Hader (L)

B.Wegman

Y.Gallardo

C.Burnes

Top 6 by B-Ref WAR, Moose Haas has an ERA+ under 100; Burnes/Gallardo take the last two slots over Slaton.  Top two in saves added in short relief.

All Time Marlins Roster

  Through 2023.

 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each time has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  

Starting Lineup v RH

C JT Realmuto 

1B J.Conine

2B L.Castillo (SH)

SS H.Ramirez

3B M.Cabrera

LF C.Floyd (L)

CF C.Yelich

RF G.Stanton

DH G.Sheffield

Starting Lineup v LH

C JT Realmuto

1B J.Conine

2B D.Uggla

SS H.Ramirez

3B M.Cabrera

LF C.Yelich (LH)

CF M.Ozuna

RF G.Stanton

DH G.Sheffield

Reserves

C C.Johnson

1B D.Lee

SS M.Rojas

3B M.Lowell

CF J.Pierre (LH)

The top 16 in Fangraphs WAR are right here.

Rotation

J.Johnson

S.Alcantara

AJ Burnett

A.Sanchez

K.Brown

Bullpen

R.Nen

S.Cishek 

D.Willis (L)

J.Beckett

J.Fernandez

The top 8 by B-Ref WAR and the two leaders in saves; Ricky Nolasco is very high in Fangraphs WAR, but has a Marlins ERA+ under 100, and I'm categorically excluding those pitchers.  Willis is the only lefty on the staff and thats why he slides to the pen, given the roster construction rules. 

All Time Dodgers Roster

 Through 2023.

 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each time has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  

Starting Lineup v RH

C R.Campanella

1B D.Camilli (LH)

2B J.Robinson

SS PW Reese

3B R.Cey

LF Z.Wheat (LH)

CF D.Snider (LH)

RF D.Walker (LH)

DH M.Piazza

Starting Lineup v LH

C R.Campanella

1B G.Hodges

2B J.Robinson

SS PW Reese

3B R.Cey

LF P.Guerrero

CF D.Snider (LH)

RF C.Furillo

DH M.Piazza

Reserves

1B/3B S.Garvey

2B/3B/LF J.Gilliam

SS M.Wills

CF W.Davis

Dodgers have a deep bench, so some 30 WAR position players aren't here - Justin Turner is top of the list; with Garvey/Gilliam and Jackie able to play third base, he gets left off.  Lopes/Russell/Mike Griffin, all left off.

Starting Pitchers

C.Kershaw (LH)

D.Drysdale

D.Vance

D.Sutton 

S.Koufax (LH)

Bullpen

K.Jansen

E.Gagne

N.Rucker (LH)

O.Hershiser

F.Valenzuela (LH

8 top Fangraphs WAR and the two saves leaders.  

All Time Rockies Roster

 Through 2023.

 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each time has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  

Starting Lineup v RH

C J.Reed (LH)

1B T.Helton (LH)

2B R.McMahon (LH)

SS T.Tulowitzki

3B N.Arenado

LF C.Gonzalez (LH)

CF C.Blackmon (LH)

RF L.Walker (LH)

DH M.Holliday

Starting Lineup v LH

C C.Iannetta

1B T.Helton (LH)

2B DJ LeMahieu 

SS T.Tulowitzki

3B N.Arenado

LF M.Holliday

CF E.Burks

RF L.Walker (LH)

DH A.Galarraga

Reserves

SS T.Story

3B/SS V.Castilla

CF D.Fowler (SH)

The 14 highest b-ref WAR position players + 2 catchers.

Starting Pitchers

U.Jimenez

A.Cook

G.Marquez

K.Freeland (LH)

J. De La Rosa (LH)

Bullpen

B.Fuentes (LH)

S.Reed

J.Gray

P.Astacio

J.Chacin

It's the top 9 by B-Ref WAR (including Reed, a short reliever, who soaks up one of the closer spots) and Fuentes, the franchise save leader.  

All Time Reds Roster

Through 2023.

 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each time has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  

Starting Lineup v RH

C J.Bench

1B J.Votto (LH)

2B J.Morgan (LH)

SS B.Larkin

3B T.Perez

LF F.Robinson

CF V.Pinson (LH)

RF P.Rose (SH)

DH E.Roush (LH)

Starting Lineup v LH

C J.Bench

1B J.Votto (LH)

2B J.Morgan (LH)

SS B.Larkin

3B T.Perez

LF F.Robinson

CF E.Davis

RF G.Foster

DH P.Rose (SH)

Reserves

C E.Lombardi

2B B.McPhee 

2B L.Frey (L)

SS D.Concepcion

3B/2B H.Groh

Its the 15 top b-ref WAR Reds and the backup catcher, Frey gets the slot that Reilly or Kluszewski might get as the last man on the roster.  If a player averages 30 WAR when combining b-ref and Fangraphs, there's a presumption that they belong on the roster.

Starting Pitchers

N.Hahn (L)

E.Rixey (L)

D.Luque

P.Derringer

J.Rijo

Relief Pitchers

A.Chapman (L)

J.Franco (L)

J.Maloney

F.Dwyer

B.Walters

The top half dozen B-Ref WAR pitchers are here; Derringer's the top in Fangraphs WAR, Maloney gets the last spot over Mullane. Chapman and Franco are 3-4 in Reds saves, they have solid ERA+ advantages over Graves; Franco/Cordero is essentially a tie and the lefty gets the slot.

All Time Cubs Roster

 Through 2023.

 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each time has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  

Starting Lineup v RH

C G.Hartnett 

1B C.Anson

2B R.Sandberg

SS E.Banks

3B S.Hack (LH)

LF B.Williams (LH)

CF G.Gore (LH)

RF S.Sosa

DH M.Grace (LH)

Starting Lineup v. LH

C G.Hartnett

1B C.Anson

2B R.Sandberg

SS E.Banks

3B R.Santo

LF B.Williams (LH)

CF J.Ryan

RF S.Sosa

DH F.Chance

Reserves

2B J.Evers (LH)

2B B.Herman (RH)

SS J.Tinker

RF B.Nicholson (LH)

Who is the backup catcher?  It's Chance, who caught a little less than 200 games with the Cubs; doing that allows for Billy Herman to make this roster, which is why there are 3 guys who can only play second base on this team - but Herman's got 40 career Cub WAR and given that the other best option is King Kelly as the backup catcher, this configuration best captures Cub history.  There's a lot of 30+ WAR Cubs not here: Anthony Rizzo, Phil Cavaretta, Ed Williamson, Bill Dahlen, Hack Wilson.  Wilson loses out to Gore to add Gore's left handed bat. 

Starting Pitchers

F.Jenkins

R.Reuschel

M.Brown

B.Hutchison

G.Alexander

Bullpen

L.Smith

B.Sutter

C.Griffith

H.Vaughn (L)

J.Clarkson

Top four starters have 40+ Cub WAR in both b-ref and fangraphs; Smith and Sutter lead in saves and Vaughn is the top lefty. That left multiple guys for those last 3 spots, just left off are Maddux, Charlie Root, Bob Rush, Carlos Zambrano, Claude Passeau.

Super Bowl 58 Prediction

I picked the 49ers before the season and before the playoffs.  The 49ers, by every advanced metric, were the better team this season.  I am a 49er fan and so even if none of that was true, I would still pick the 49ers in this spot - it's the Super Bowl, I'm picking my team - however, I pick this game every year and unless a significant countervailing issue makes the season totals not the single best predictor (variance is more important than everything, "any given Sunday" and whatnot; you throw the Bears into this game and 4 times out of 10 they win, don't overrate ability to predict the outcome of an NFL game), I pick the team who had the best season.  No - a couple of playoff games are not a significant countervailing issue - if Mahomes missed half the season or Trent Williams wasn't playing Sunday, that's what would be needed to buck the season long results.  

The 49ers run the ball - the Chiefs don't stop the run.

The Chiefs one skill position weapon is the tight end - the 49ers shut down tight ends.  

The Chiefs have an offensive tackle problem and Nick Bosa puts more pressure on the QB than almost any other pass rusher in football.  

If you're picking the Chiefs, and a lot of folks are, it rests on the distance between the quarterbacks and thats a reasonable call.  A different way to pick this game would just be to pick the better QB given the wildly outsized impact on winning that position has - Mahomes is a two time champion headed to the Hall of Fame and Purdy was the last pick in the draft and there were advanced analysts calling for him to be replaced by Sam Darnold before the 4th quarter of the divisional playoff win over the Packers.  

If I had Mahomes on my side, I'd pick him too.  

But instead - I have everything else.  

49ers 26

Chiefs 23

I'm going to throw in some props I like, I'll update this as it strikes me:

Eli Mitchell over 4.5 rushing/receiving yrds

Deebo Samuel under 2.5 carries

Brandon Aiyuk over 4.5 receptions

Kyle Juszczyk over 4.5 yds receiving

All Time Braves Roster

  Through 2023.

 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each time has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  

Mgr. Bobby Cox

(no other Braves manager is within a thousand wins)

Starting Lineup v. RH

C B.McCann (L)

1B F.Freeman (L)

2B O.Albies (S)

SS H.Long (L)

3B E.Mathews (L)

LF W.Berger 

CF A.Jones

RF H.Aaron

DH C.Jones (S)

Starting Lineup v LH

C J.Torre

1B D.Murphy

2B O.Albies (S)

SS J.Logan 

3B E.Mathews (L)

LF W.Berger

CF A.Jones

RF H.Aaron

DH C.Jones

Reserves

1B/LF/C F.Tenney (L)

2B/SS R.Maranville 

LF/RF/CF R.Acuna

RF/CF T.Holmes (L)

Billy Nash has 30 career Braves Fangraphs WAR but is limited to third base and clearly stuck behind the top two.  Second base is a challenge, Albies still gaining value as an active player through 2023 makes him a better selection than Bobby Lowe - and Maranville's got too much Braves career WAR to leave off the roster in favor of Lowe and while primarily a shortstop, he finished his career with a couple of seasons as the Braves starting second baseman.  Hugh Duffy has more WAR than Acuna as of 2023, but probably won't for long and so Acuna gets that spot.  Murphy had over 200 games as the Brave first baseman and that's enough to get him a spot against lefties.

SP K.Nichols 

     W.Spahn (L)

     P.Niekro

     J.Smoltz

     G.Maddux

RP C.Kimbrel

      G.Garber

      T.Glavine (L)

      V.Willis 

      J.Clarkson (RF)

Top 8 career Braves b-ref WAR and the two career leaders in saves.  

All Time Diamondbacks Roster

 Through 2023.

 Largely, this is a focus on career regular season value, due to time considerations.  I'm doing this with the idea of a possible tournament, so I'm not just putting together the best 26 players, I'm trying to construct a roster.  Every spot has a backup, 16 position players/10 pitchers.  Making platoon considerations, each time has 2 dedicated closers, each bullpen has a lefty.  

Mgr. Bob Brenly 

(not the winningest manager, but Arizona has one WS and its under Brenly)

Starting Lineup v RH

C M.Montero   (L)

1B P.Goldschmidt

2B K.Marte (S)

SS S.Drew (L)

3B M.Williams

LF L.Gonzalez (L)

CF S.Finley (L)

RF D.Peralta (L)

DH J.Upton

Starting Lineup v. LH

C D.Miller

1B P.Goldschmidt

2B K.Marte (S)

SS N.Ahmed

3B M.Williams

LF AJ Pollock

CF C.Young

RF J.Upton

DH L.Gonzalez (L)

Reserves

1B C.Walker 

2B/3B J.Bell

3B/2B/SS C.Counsell (L)

Fairly noncontroversial, it's the top 15 Diamondbacks position players in Fangraphs WAR and a backup right handed hitting catcher.  

SP R.Johnson (L)

      B.Webb

      C.Schilling

      Z.Greinke 

      Z.Gallen

RP J.Valverde

      JJ Putz

      D.Haren

      P.Corbin (L)

      M.Kelly

The 7 top career WAR totals by baseball-reference, plus Corbin to get the needed lefty in the pen, and the two top career saves leaders.

      

Every Super Bowl Winner Ranked 1-57

 Aaron Schatz has put up a ranking of every Super Bowl winner by DVOA - I really like DVOA but its not a component element of my football rankings at present, so there's perhaps some value in this comparison, were you (you!) looking for components for your own ranking.  DVOA first, my rankings are second

DVOA 

57. 1970 Colts

56. 2011 Giants

55. 2001 Patriots

54. 1987 Redskins

53. 2007 Giants

52. 1981 49ers

51. 1968 Jets

50. 2012 Ravens

49. 1980 Raiders

48. 2018 Patriots

47. 2015 Broncos

46. 2006 Colts

45. 2003 Patriots

44. 2010 Packers

43. 1982 Redskins

42. 1974 Steelers

41. 2014 Patriots

40. 1969 Chiefs

39. 2017 Eagles

38. 2008 Steelers

37. 2016 Patriots

36. 1967 Packers

35. 1976 Raiders

34. 2021 Rams

33. 2000 Ravens

32. 2009 Saints

31. 2022 Chiefs

30. 1990 Giants

29. 1978 Steelers

28. 1977 Cowboys

27. 1986 Giants

26. 1988 49ers

25. 1993 Cowboys

24. 2005 Steelers

23. 1972 Dolphins

22. 1983 Raiders

21. 1971 Cowboys

20. 2020 Bucs

19. 1997 Broncos

18. 2019 Chiefs

17. 1994 49ers

16. 1999 Rams

15. 1979 Steelers

14. 2002 Bucs

13. 1966 Packers

12. 2013 Seahawks

11. 1984 49ers

10. 1998 Broncos

9. 1995 Cowboys

8. 1975 Steelers

7. 2004 Patriots

6. 1973 Dolphins

5. 1992 Cowboys

4. 1996 Packers

3. 1989 49ers

2. 1985 Bears

1. 1991 Redskins

Jividen List

1. 1985 Bears

2. 1991 Redskins

3. 1996 Packers

4. 1975 Steelers

5. 2004 Patriots

6. 1973 Dolphins

7. 1966 Packers

8. 1984 49ers

9. 2013 Seahawks

10. 1969 Chiefs

11. 1989 49ers

12. 1976 Steelers

13. 1972 Dolphins

14. 1994 49ers

15. 1992 Cowboys

16. 1979 Steelers

17. 1993 Cowboys

18. 2014 Patriots

19. 2010 Packers

20. 1971 Cowboys

21. 2016 Patriots

22. 1997 Broncos

23. 1986 Giants

24. 1998 Broncos

25. 2020 Bucs

26. 2019 Chiefs

27. 1995 Cowboys

28. 1967 Packers

29. 2008 Steelers

30. 1976 Raiders

31. 2017 Eagles

32. 2009 Saints

33. 2002 Bucs

34. 1978 Steelers

35. 1968 Chiefs

36. 1999 Rams

37. 2005 Steelers

38. 1977 Cowboys

39. 2000 Ravens

40. 2003 Patriots

41. 1983 Raiders

42. 2022 Chiefs

43. 1974 Steelers

44. 1990 Giants

45. 1968 Jets

46. 1982 Redskins

47. 2006 Colts

48. 2015 Broncos

49. 2018 Patriots

50. 1981 49ers

51. 1980 Raiders

52. 1988 49ers

53. 2021 Rams

54. 2001 Patriots

55. 2007 Giants

56. 2011 Giants

57. 1970 Colts