Look, this is dumb. It's a baseball game, the worst team in the league is going to beat the best team over a third of the time - picking the winner in one playoff game is dumb; I had Oakland yesterday and that's as good an example as you can find of this being a coinflip game. The Giants and Pirates have identical pythagorean win totals, If there's the slightest of all leans, it's Bumgarner. Giants win.