My first Super Bowl was 12; I think I remember 11 but that could just be highlights. I definitely recall 12, however, so I've seen 40 of these things in real time and been making picks nearly as long.
Patriots outright
Eagles +5
By most measures these were very evenly matched teams over the course of the regular season; the Eagles have the best offensive line in football and, in Cox/Graham, the two best front seven defenders in this game. If the Eagles controlled both lines of scrimmage in this game it wouldn't surprise.
And yet - you can't pick them to win; the difference is the quarterback, which is the most basic of analysis - Brady is still, age age 53, the best player in football, and Nick Foles, while coming off a great NFC Championship, had as many bad games as good ones replacing Carson Wentz, and the level of variance with him is just too high to say he's more likely to beat you than Brady.
I don't love the game, as is evidenced by my splitting the difference and taking the Eagles +5, the Patriots were dead and buried just a week ago at home against the Jags, there's at least some possibility of a Gronkowski concussion issue that might manifest itself in this game, and the Eagle team that blitzed through the Vikings was the best team in football this year.
And of course, like all right thinking people, I'm rooting against the Patriots so it's more fun to be on that side of this wager.
However - if you're picking, and I am, I'll take the guy who most now say is the greatest quarterback who ever lived over Nick Foles.
