Updated through 2019.
I've used some metrics, looked to combine regular season and post season, looked to incorporate peak and adjusted for era. They're better than any previous football list I've done, aside from the all time 47 man rosters, which I think are pretty good (the basketball and baseball lists are better) This is current through the 2015 postseason. I'll only list the teams with whom the players had significant careers, not every team for which they played.
I'm using two threshold metrics. To make the list you (1) needed to have an Approximate Value score of at least 100 (2) a passer rating index of at least 100 (3) 100 career starts at QB
Edit. It's 4 years later, a couple of things have happened (1) there are now 70 QB in NFL history with 100+ AV (2) the passer rating index career totals are gone. I'll make my own computation, it won't be perfect (my calculation will be lower) but a lot of guys are dying just short of my 100 computation and that's what I'm looking for.
I recognize that there's not really a reason why an approximate value of 97 (Culpepper, the closest to 100) or an index rating of really any of the guys who got kicked out of the list for being in the 90s should be eliminated, save that you need to find a way to make it manageable.
Anyway, as of the end of 2018 - that number is 46. The top AV QB not on the list is Eli, he was on the list three years ago when I last did this, but has given up enough of the passer rating index subsequent that he's fallen below 100.
The next step was the pre 1960 quarterbacks for whom there isn't an approximate value score. The threshold here was Hall of Fame. That gave us 13 more names. From which I cut the guys from the 20s for whom there just aren't really good stats, and I cut the guys with fewer than 60 career starts.
That adds six guys. That's 52.
Not here, given the parameters, are Plunkett/Namath/Eli and my inclination is they're all top 50 all time QB.
Here are the 50 best QB in NFL history.
Just missing:
Jim Harbaugh Bears 1987-00
-101 AV, 100 Rate+ Harbaugh had one fantastic season, 1995, where he had a passer rating index of 132 (essentially means he was 32% better than the average QB in 1995). He was never really bad - and that's crucial here - missing from this list are Plunkett/Namath/Eli - those bad seasons really drive down that career passer rating index and as I've set 100 as the minimum, Harbaugh is who hangs onto this last spot on the list.
Trent Green Chiefs 1997-08
-111 AV, 102.1 Rate+ Green hits the total on both metrics, had more good years than bad. Has no postseason record to speak of nor rushing ability. His strong early 30s Chiefs career gets him here.
And here's the Top 50
50. Jeff Garcia 49ers 1999-2011
-104AV, 108 Rate+ An interesting profile, didn't play a down before was 29, his rate+ in 2000 was 127, making him 27% above average; Garcia also adds a strong rushing profile and a gets a tick of a playoff boost.
49. Matthew Stafford Lions 2009-
-118 AV, 102.9 Rate+ After the 2018 season I wrote that my expectation is Stafford would not retire on this list, but that seems less certain now.
-105 AV, 105.4 Rate+ He's Green but won that Super Bowl, his career playoff quarterback rating was over 90, that's a pretty solid plus and you like him here.
47. Craig Morton Cowboys 1965-82
-115 AV, 107.8 Rate+ Morton was never bad (except for the Super Bowl, where he was atrocious) and closed his career with five straight seasons above 100 passer rating index.
46. Bobby Layne Lions/Steelers 1948-62
-101.2 Rate+ 9 good seasons but none above 117 rate+, he's the first of the 6 pre modern QB
45. Mark Brunell Jaguars 1994-2011
-120 AV, 106.8 Rate+ Really a model of consistency; only one bad season his entire career and no seasons above a 117 rate+; Brunell was basically 151 starting games of good.
44. Rich Gannon Raiders/Vikings 1987-04
-120 AV, 105.9 Rate+ Gannon had four seasons at 120 Rate+ or above and added value with his legs.
43. Phil Simms Giants 1979-93
-118 AV, 106 Rate+ From his third season forward Simms was good every year, only a couple of seasons above 120 but when you add in a top 5 all time SB performance he gets this slot.
42. Ken Stabler Raiders 1970-84
-119 AV, 105.4 Rate+ Snake was old, didn't hit the league until he was 27, tore it up for half a dozen years including a SB title and then was just a guy the rest of his career.
41. Tony Romo Cowboys 2006-
-116 AV, 114 Rate+ Romo's separate from the Ryan/Cutler group in that he's had a couple of really good years, in 2014 his rate plus was 134, that's really strong - and he's separate, say from Carson Palmer who also had a couple of those years but has thrown in multiple subpar years that Romo just doesn't have.
40. Kurt Warner Rams/Cardinals 1998-09
-113 AV, 112.1 Rate+, three super elite seasons to start his career and then solid years in his 30s; picks up points for his postseason record, 9-4, quarterback rating over 100, and as of the end of 2015, 2 of the 15 top quarterbacked games in SB history.
39. John Hadl Chargers 1962-77
-143 AV, 104 Rate+ Very similar to Krieg, lot of starts, mostly good to really good - it's a long, solid if unspectacular career.
38. Dave Krieg Seahawks 1980-98
-138 AV, 109.8 Rate+, 175 starts and never had a season with a Rate+ below 92 (and that came when he was 37). Not a great playoff performer.
37. Boomer Esiason Bengals 1984-97
-136 AV, 105.2 Rate+, very similar to Palmer
36. Carson Palmer Bengals 2004-17
-142 AV, 102.8 Rate+ couple of big years amidst a career of largely good seasons, a subpar playoff record.
35. Sid Luckman Bears 1939-50
-120.5 Rate+ Okay, hard to compare the leather helmet quarterbacks with modern era players, Luckman was the man, an entire career that approximated Garcia's best season in comparison to the rest of the league. Challenge to Luckman, beyond his playing in the 40s, is he only started 62 games in the NFL. Most of them were terrific for the era, but 62 games 70 years ago is tough to rank higher. My inclination is he's permanently #35.
34. Roman Gabriel Rams 1962-77
-131 AV, 106.8 Rate+ Fits that Krieg/Hadl profile of a ton of good, consistent seasons and he added value with his legs.
33. Steve McNair Titans 1995-07
-126 AV, 104.5 Rate+ 5.4 yards per rush for his career and 37 touchdowns on the ground help make up for that Rate+, not a good playoff performer.
32. YA Tittle 1948-64 49ers/Giants
-110.4 Rate+, so many good seasons, 13 with a rate+ over 100, was playing great football at 37 years old. Bad playoff performer, never won a game, rating under 35.
31. Norm Van Brocklin Rams 1949-60
-116.3 Rate+ Loaded up on good years at the start of his career, not great in the playoffs.
30. Randall Cunningham Eagles 1985-01
-134 AV, 100.1 Rate+ One year over 120 and then the big year with the Vikings where he went for a 134 rate+. The rushing is a big plus, 6.4 yards a carry and 35 scores.
29. Donovan McNabb Eagles 1999-2011
-138 AV, 105.3 Rate+almost all good seasons, one really excellent one with a 131 rate plus, a lot of value with his legs, 29 touchdowns and a 5.6 yards/carry average. Good enough in the playoffs with 9 wins and a rating at 80.
28. Jim Kelly Bills 1986-96
-132 AV, 111.2 Rate+ Nothing but good seasons until his final campaign, one over 120 and one over 130. The postseason doesn't help him a lot with a quarterback rating just over 70, the four SB losses were all bad performances.
27. Troy Aikman Cowboys 1989-00
-122 AV, 104.5 Rate+ Only two seasons above 120, it's a solid not a spectacular profile. Then the playoffs, 11 wins, an 88 passer rating, the 3 SBs, which is the first time we've seen that number on the list. One of those games was great.
26. Russell Wilson Seahawks 2012-
-129 AV, 117.2 Rate+, through 2019, all of Wilson's seasons are above 100 passer rating index, including 2015 where he was 131. Like Warner/Simms/Stabler/Theismann, he adds that SB.
(The 25 Greatest Quarterbacks in NFL History)
25. Sammy Baugh Redskins 1937-52
-121.3 Rate+ Same deal as Luckman but he started 21 more games. Going to make him permanently #25
24. Bob Griese Dolphins 1967-80
-139 AV, 114.2 Rate+ Only 2 seasons below 100, 4 of his full time seasons above 120, wasnt a great playoff quarterback, just a little under 70 passer rating. Got those two rings though.
23. Len Dawson Chiefs 1957-75
-144 AV, 118.9 Rate+ Nothing but good seasons his whole career including 4 that topped 130.
22. Sonny Jurgensen Redskins/Eagles 1957-74
-139 AV, 113 Rate+ Bunch of good seasons, even as a part timer late in his career, tack some points onto that AV for the pre 1960 work.
21. Bart Starr Packers 1956-71
-114 AV, 112.3 rate+, 11 good seasons, 3 over 120, 1 over 140, 9-1 in the playoffs with a quarterback rating over 100 and five titles. That's a big game quarterback. Add that pre 60s AV.
20. Roger Staubach Cowboys 1969-79
-128 AV, 118.6 Rate+ over 120 twice, 130 twice and 140 once, an elite quarterback up until the final snap but only started 114 games, not beginning his career until 28. 11 playoff wins and two titles but only a passer rating in the 70s for the postseason. Staubach was strong in the SB.
19. Terry Bradshaw Steelers 1970-83
-137 AV 102.4 rate+ Not a ton here in the regular season, only two years above 120. 14 playoff wins and a passer rating of 83 and a bunch of titles.
18. Warren Moon Oilers 1984-00
-166 AV, 105.3 Rate+ Moon rarely had a bad year but only one above 120 rate+. 3-7 playoff record doesn't do him a ton of favors.
17. Dan Fouts Chargers 1973-87
-162 AV, 109.4 Rate+ 3 seasons over 120, his and Anderson's careers are pretty similar. Not great in the playoffs, a passer rating of 70.
16. Ken Anderson Bengals 1971-86
-161 AV, 113.7 Rate+ 2 seasons over 120, two over 130 and a 90+ quarterback rating in the playoffs.
15. Matt Ryan Falcons 2008-
-170 AV, 109.6 rate+ . In the middle of this run of guys who didn't win titles.
14. Philip Rivers Chargers 2004-
-204 AV, 111.3 Rate+ that's a ton of AV, just the sheer volume, the longevity of the contemporary QB has allowed them to accumulate an unprecedented amount of value.
13. Ben Roethlisberger Steelers 2004-
-186 AV, 108.8 Rate+ really strong, 4 seasons at 120 rate+ or above and a 5th at 130 with only two subpar years through 2015. He's been a solid playoff quarterback, 11 wins and a rating above 80, his SB performances haven't been good, but he does have 2 rings.
12. Johnny Unitas Colts 1956-73
-145 AV, 109.6 Rate+ A dozen good seasons, 5 in the 120s, one in the 130s, 3 titles but a sub 70 playoff rating. Tack some AV for those pre60s seasons.
11. John Elway Broncos 1983-98
-203 AV, 103.9 Rate+ If you think its a low Rate+ it is, a half dozen subpar years, only one year above 120. Added 33 with his legs. 14 playoff wins, which is a bunch, rating was a tick below 80. Won the two titles but was not a great SB performer.
(The Top 10 Quarterbacks in NFL History)
10. Aaron Rodgers QB Packers 2007-
-184 AV, 120.1 Rate+, 4 seasons of rate+ over 120, one over 130, one at 149, every season of his career a good one, a playoff quarterback rating of nearly 100, one of the best quarterbacked games in SB history.
9 Otto Graham Browns 1946-55
-128.7 Rate+ never had a bad year, 2 over 120, 2 over 130, 2 over 140. 7 titles, but a playoff quarterback rating under 70.
8. Dan Marino Dolphins 1983-99
-216 AV, 113.8 Rate+ Did you know his middle name is Constantine? And Unitas too? Creepy. One subpar year, his last, at the age of 38, 3 in the 120s and 1 in the 140s, his regular season profile looks a lot like Brady's, say a tick below. Not much help in the playoffs, rating in the high 70s, below .500 record.
7. Fran Tarkenton Vikings 1961-78
-236 AV, 113.8 Rate+ And the legs, 32 scores and 5.4 yards a carry. A little better than Marino, one subpar season, 4 seasons in the 120s, 1 in the 130s. The playoffs were not good, rating under 60. A ton of bad SB losses.
6. Steve Young 49ers 1985-99
-171 AV, 123.4 Rate+ In his full seasons as a starter, crossed 120 twice, 130 twice, 140 twice, added a bunch of rushing value 43 touchdowns, playoff rating in the mid 80s, his SB game was crazy, the second best of all time. He's got the highest passer rating index for modern QB - plus all those yards on the ground.
5. Joe Montana 49ers 1979-94
-164 AV, 122.5 Rate+ Not quite as good as Young as a regular season quarterback, never had a bad season, 4 in the 120s, 2 in the 130s, 1 in the 140s -- and then came the playoffs, 16 wins, a quarterback rating in the mid 90s, 5 game winning playoff drives, the 4 titles and the best Super Bowl career in NFL history, there just is not a player with this level of SB performance. I'm a Montana guy; if you ask me who I want, I'd say Joe - but the AV difference between he and the top 4 is just too large to move him up this list. He just didn't have the regular season volume that the top 4 had.
4. Brett Favre Packers 1991-10
--255 AV, 109 Rate+ was still great even at 40, with a 129 rate+, only had a couple other seasons in the 120s and 1 in the 130s. Good in the playoffs, mid 80s rating, solid SB.
3. Drew Brees Saints 2001-
-267 AV, 117.2 5 seasons of 130+ rate+ as of 2019, only 1 season below 110 since he turned 25. In 2018, at 39 years old, he led the NFL passer rating index. His playoff quarterback rating is over 100. Breathing down Manning's neck.
2. Peyton Manning Colts 1998-2015
-271 AV, 117 Rate+, 2 subpar seasons, the first and last, 7 over 120, 1 over 130, and in 2004 a 151 Rate+. Good in the playoffs, a rating in the high 80s, and he won the two titles, despite never having a good SB performance.
1. Tom Brady Patriots 2000-
-280 AV, 116 Rate + one year above 120, two above 130, one above 140. A good playoff quarterback, a good SB quarterback, and obviously, all the titles
