My First Four picks were here.
In the South...
Rnd 1:
Kansas.
UConn over Colorado in the 8/9
South Dakota St. in a largely warrantless 12/5 win over Maryland (senior guard play, Maryland's inconsistent, I don't have Maryland advancing through to the sweet 16, but thats it)
Cal
I had Wichita in the play in game and I'm (in a post pic change! Post pic!) going to roll them through Arizona.
Miami
Temple over Iowa in the 7/10, they aren't as good, but are playing better and the Philly matchup in Round 2 is too hard not to root for.
Nova
Rnd 2:
Kansas
Cal (they could get bounced in round one, I'll sweat that out)
Wichita (post pic! I've got Wichita going through Miami into the Sweet 16! We must be maniacs! That's a bad pic, incidentally, for your brackets, Miami obviously gets into this round whereas Wichita is climbing uphill to beat Arizona. It's dopey.
Nova
Sweet 16
Kansas (I want to pick Cal, but they're more likely to get bounced in Round 1; if they're here though, they are a game upset pick and I'll be rooting for them)
Nova
Elite 8
Kansas (One of my models has Nova winning whole thing)
In the West...
Rnd One
Oregon
Cincinnati over St Joes in a total coin flip.
Yale over Baylor in a 12/5 - that's not an unreasonable pick, Yale's underseeded, Baylor could also go to the sweet 16, so it's high risk.
Duke - I'd like to go the other way and pick Wilmington, which is not unreasonable and I've thought about it; this is a tough group, you tell me any of the four teams come out of it and I'm not shocked.
Texas, although I've got one model with UNI.
A&M
VCU over Oregon St in the 7/10.
Oklahoma
Rnd Two
Oregon
Duke - but again, I don't feel good about this group; I'll certainly be heavy for Yale if they're in this game and they could win it.
A&M
Oklahoma
Sweet 16
Oregon
Oklahoma
Elite 8
Oklahoma (I've got them in the Final Four in every model)
East...
Rnd 1
Carolina
USC (that's different than the pic, most of my models have Providence and I think Providence is going to win, but I'm not picking against my squad in round one)
IU
UK
So, if Michigan beats Tulsa, I'm taking the Wolverines over Notre Dame - if they don't, I'm taking Notre Dame over Tulsa.
West Virginia
Pitt over Wisconsin in the 7/10, that more readily goes the other way, but I have this winner bounced in the next round
Xavier
Rnd 2
Carolina
Kentucky over Indiana in what will be a thing. Biggest IU game in awhile.
West Virginia
X
Sweet 16
Carolina
West Virginia (I really like Xavier, I could see either of them going to the Final Four)
Elite 8
West Virginia (SFA is a game round one opponent for WVA, they do sort of the same thing, if they're gone before the first weekend I tear up the bracket)
Midwest
Rnd One
Virginia
Butler over TTech in the 8/9
Purdue
Iona - I don't have Iowa getting over Pudue in any model, so this is a low downside calculation
Gonzaga (coin flip game over Seton Hall)
Utah
Syracuse (the opposite rationale of my Temple/Iowa pick)
Michigan St
Rnd 2
UVA
Purdue
Gonzaga - this is not a great pick, it's only an okay Zags squad, but that's the deal with Utah also, and Seton Hall might beat them both
Michigan St.
Sweet 16
Purdue (I've got a model with Virginia going to the title game)
Michigan St
Elite 8
Michigan St.
So, Final Four...
Oklahoma over Kansas
Michigan St over West Virginia
Kansas is the best team in the field - but what I want is that Hield/Valentine game.
Champion
Michigan St.
2016 NCAA Play In Game...er...First Four Picks
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Wichita over Vandy
FGCU over FDU
Michigan over Tulsa
Southern over Holy Cross
FGCU over FDU
Michigan over Tulsa
Southern over Holy Cross
2016 All Time NFL Quarterbrackets
Monday, March 14, 2016
Updated
I've spent the last week or two updating a four year old list ranking the Top 50 Quarterbacks of all time.
It's okay. Check it out if interested.
One of the inputs to that list was Pro-football-reference's Approximate value metric. I noted that, as of the end of 2015, 64 quarterbacks in league history had reached 100 AV.
64 makes for a useful number come tournament time.
So, I'm doing this:
I S-curved the 64 quarterbacks, matching them with their seed equivalents in the bracket. So, the quarterback with the most AV all time is Peyton Manning, meaning he is Kansas (the overall top seed in the tournament). His first round opponent is the 16th seed in his region, the 64th all time AV quarterback, Billy Kilmer, representing Austin Peay.
Note, AV is just one input into my quarterback rankings; for example, I have Bart Starr ranked about 30 spots higher than his AV. This list though, given that it happened to fall at 64, is straight AV all the way down.
Here we go. Round One.
South
1. Peyton Manning (Kansas)
16. Billy Kilmer (Austin Peay)
8. John Brodie (Colorado)
9. Roger Staubach (UConn)
(rematch of the early 70's Cowboy/Niners feud)
5. John Hadl (Maryland)
12. Bart Starr (South Dakota St)
4. Len Dawson (Cal)
13. Michael Vick (Hawaii)
6. Terry Bradshaw (Arizona)
11. Phil Simms (Vandy/Wichita winner)
3. Warren Moon (Miami)
14. Steve DeBerg (Buffalo)
7. Boomer Esiason (Iowa)
10. Ken Stabler (Temple)
2. Steve Young (Villanova)
15. Joe Ferguson (UNC Asheville)
West
1. Tom Brady (Oregon)
16. Jay Cutler (Holy Cross/Southern winner)
8. Jim Kelly (St Joes)
9. Carson Palmer (Cincinnati)
5. Sonny Jurgensen (Baylor)
12. Joe Namath (Yale)
(Namath repping Yale is good times)
4. Philip Rivers (Duke)
13. Trent Green (UNC-Wilmington)
6. Dave Krieg (Texas)
11. Craig Morton (Northern Iowa)
3. Ken Anderson (A&M)
14. Matt Hasselbeck (Green Bay)
7. Eli Manning (Oregon St)
10. Troy Aikman (VCU)
2. Dan Marino (Oklahoma)
15. Jeff Garcia (Cal St Bakersfield)
East
1. Brett Favre (North Carolina)
16. Jim Harbaugh (Florida Gulf Coast/FDU winner)
8. Roman Gabriel (USC)
9. Steve McNair (Providence)
5. Vinnie Testaverde (Indiana)
12. Matt Ryan (Chatt)
4. Johnny Unitas (Kentucky)
13. Kurt Warner (Stony Brook)
6. Drew Bledsoe (NDame)
11. Steve Grogan (Michigan/Tulsa winner)
(Patriot nation explodes)
3. Joe Montana (West Virginia)
14. Jim Everett (SFAustin)
(historically, not a good result coming for Everett)
7. Jim Hart (Wisconsin)
10. Rich Gannon (Pitt)
2. John Elway (Xavier)
15. Ron Jaworski (Weber)
Midwest
1. Fran Tarkenton (Virginia)
16. Danny White (Hampton)
8. Aaron Rodgers (TTech)
9. George Blanda (Butler)
5. Bob Griese (Purdue)
12. Norm Snead (Little Rock)
(it happened, Griese reps his alma mater)
4. Ben Roethlisberger (Iowa St)
13. Kerry Collins (Iona)
6. Donovan McNabb (SHall)
11. Tony Romo (Gonzaga)
3. Dan Fouts (Utah)
14. Jim Plunkett (Fresno)
7. Randall Cunningham (Dayton)
10. Mark Brunell (Syracuse)
2. Drew Brees (Michigan St)
15. Joe Thiesmann (Midd Tenn)
Down to 32, Here's Round Two
South
Peyton Manning (Kansas) v. Roger Staubach (UConn)
Phil Simms (Wichita) v. Warren Moon (Miami)
John Hadl (Maryland) v. Michael Vick (Hawaii)
Boomer Esiason (Iowa) v. Steve Young (Villanova)
West
Tom Brady (Oregon) v. Jim Kelly (St Joes)
Joe Namath (Yale) v. Phil Rivers (Duke)
Troy Aikman (VCU) v. Dan Marino (Oklahoma)
Ken Anderson (Texas A&M) v. Craig Morton (UNI)
East
Brett Favre (North Carolina) v. Steve McNair (Providence)
Vinny Testaverde (Indiana) v. Johnny Unitas (Kentucky)
Jim Everett (SFA) v. Drew Bledsoe (NDame)
Jim Hart (Wisconsin) v. John Elway (X)
Midwest
Fran Tarkenton (Virginia) v. George Blanda (Butler)
Norm Snead (Little Rock) v. Ben Roethlisberger (Iowa St)
Tony Romo (Gonzaga) v. Dan Fouts (Utah)
Mark Brunell (Syracuse) v. Joe Thiesmann (Middle Tennessee)
I've spent the last week or two updating a four year old list ranking the Top 50 Quarterbacks of all time.
It's okay. Check it out if interested.
One of the inputs to that list was Pro-football-reference's Approximate value metric. I noted that, as of the end of 2015, 64 quarterbacks in league history had reached 100 AV.
64 makes for a useful number come tournament time.
So, I'm doing this:
I S-curved the 64 quarterbacks, matching them with their seed equivalents in the bracket. So, the quarterback with the most AV all time is Peyton Manning, meaning he is Kansas (the overall top seed in the tournament). His first round opponent is the 16th seed in his region, the 64th all time AV quarterback, Billy Kilmer, representing Austin Peay.
Note, AV is just one input into my quarterback rankings; for example, I have Bart Starr ranked about 30 spots higher than his AV. This list though, given that it happened to fall at 64, is straight AV all the way down.
Here we go. Round One.
South
1. Peyton Manning (Kansas)
16. Billy Kilmer (Austin Peay)
8. John Brodie (Colorado)
9. Roger Staubach (UConn)
(rematch of the early 70's Cowboy/Niners feud)
5. John Hadl (Maryland)
12. Bart Starr (South Dakota St)
4. Len Dawson (Cal)
13. Michael Vick (Hawaii)
6. Terry Bradshaw (Arizona)
11. Phil Simms (Vandy/Wichita winner)
3. Warren Moon (Miami)
14. Steve DeBerg (Buffalo)
7. Boomer Esiason (Iowa)
10. Ken Stabler (Temple)
2. Steve Young (Villanova)
15. Joe Ferguson (UNC Asheville)
West
1. Tom Brady (Oregon)
16. Jay Cutler (Holy Cross/Southern winner)
8. Jim Kelly (St Joes)
9. Carson Palmer (Cincinnati)
5. Sonny Jurgensen (Baylor)
12. Joe Namath (Yale)
(Namath repping Yale is good times)
4. Philip Rivers (Duke)
13. Trent Green (UNC-Wilmington)
6. Dave Krieg (Texas)
11. Craig Morton (Northern Iowa)
3. Ken Anderson (A&M)
14. Matt Hasselbeck (Green Bay)
7. Eli Manning (Oregon St)
10. Troy Aikman (VCU)
2. Dan Marino (Oklahoma)
15. Jeff Garcia (Cal St Bakersfield)
East
1. Brett Favre (North Carolina)
16. Jim Harbaugh (Florida Gulf Coast/FDU winner)
8. Roman Gabriel (USC)
9. Steve McNair (Providence)
5. Vinnie Testaverde (Indiana)
12. Matt Ryan (Chatt)
4. Johnny Unitas (Kentucky)
13. Kurt Warner (Stony Brook)
6. Drew Bledsoe (NDame)
11. Steve Grogan (Michigan/Tulsa winner)
(Patriot nation explodes)
3. Joe Montana (West Virginia)
14. Jim Everett (SFAustin)
(historically, not a good result coming for Everett)
7. Jim Hart (Wisconsin)
10. Rich Gannon (Pitt)
2. John Elway (Xavier)
15. Ron Jaworski (Weber)
Midwest
1. Fran Tarkenton (Virginia)
16. Danny White (Hampton)
8. Aaron Rodgers (TTech)
9. George Blanda (Butler)
5. Bob Griese (Purdue)
12. Norm Snead (Little Rock)
(it happened, Griese reps his alma mater)
4. Ben Roethlisberger (Iowa St)
13. Kerry Collins (Iona)
6. Donovan McNabb (SHall)
11. Tony Romo (Gonzaga)
3. Dan Fouts (Utah)
14. Jim Plunkett (Fresno)
7. Randall Cunningham (Dayton)
10. Mark Brunell (Syracuse)
2. Drew Brees (Michigan St)
15. Joe Thiesmann (Midd Tenn)
South
Peyton Manning (Kansas) v. Roger Staubach (UConn)
Phil Simms (Wichita) v. Warren Moon (Miami)
John Hadl (Maryland) v. Michael Vick (Hawaii)
Boomer Esiason (Iowa) v. Steve Young (Villanova)
West
Tom Brady (Oregon) v. Jim Kelly (St Joes)
Joe Namath (Yale) v. Phil Rivers (Duke)
Troy Aikman (VCU) v. Dan Marino (Oklahoma)
Ken Anderson (Texas A&M) v. Craig Morton (UNI)
East
Brett Favre (North Carolina) v. Steve McNair (Providence)
Vinny Testaverde (Indiana) v. Johnny Unitas (Kentucky)
Jim Everett (SFA) v. Drew Bledsoe (NDame)
Jim Hart (Wisconsin) v. John Elway (X)
Midwest
Fran Tarkenton (Virginia) v. George Blanda (Butler)
Norm Snead (Little Rock) v. Ben Roethlisberger (Iowa St)
Tony Romo (Gonzaga) v. Dan Fouts (Utah)
Mark Brunell (Syracuse) v. Joe Thiesmann (Middle Tennessee)
Sweet Sixteen
South
Warren Moon (Miami) v. Peyton Manning (Kansas)
Steve Young (Villanova) v.John Hadl (Maryland)
West
Phillip Rivers (Duke) v. Tom Brady (Oregon)
Dan Marino (Oklahoma) v. Ken Anderson (A&M)
East
Brett Favre (North Carolina) v. Vinny Testaverde (Indiana)
Drew Bledsoe (NDame) v. Jim Hart (Wisconsin)
Midwest
Fran Tarkenton (Virginia) v. Ben Roethlisberger (Iowa St)
Tony Romo (Gonzaga) v. Mark Brunell (Syracuse)
Elite Eight
South
Peyton Manning (Kansas) v. Steve Young (Villanova)
West
Tom Brady (Oregon) v. Dan Marino (Oklahoma)
East
Drew Bledsoe (Notre Dame) v. Brett Favre (UNC)
Midwest
Fran Tarkenton (Virginia) v. Mark Brunell (Syracuse)
South
Warren Moon (Miami) v. Peyton Manning (Kansas)
Steve Young (Villanova) v.John Hadl (Maryland)
West
Phillip Rivers (Duke) v. Tom Brady (Oregon)
Dan Marino (Oklahoma) v. Ken Anderson (A&M)
East
Brett Favre (North Carolina) v. Vinny Testaverde (Indiana)
Drew Bledsoe (NDame) v. Jim Hart (Wisconsin)
Midwest
Fran Tarkenton (Virginia) v. Ben Roethlisberger (Iowa St)
Tony Romo (Gonzaga) v. Mark Brunell (Syracuse)
Elite Eight
South
Peyton Manning (Kansas) v. Steve Young (Villanova)
West
Tom Brady (Oregon) v. Dan Marino (Oklahoma)
East
Drew Bledsoe (Notre Dame) v. Brett Favre (UNC)
Midwest
Fran Tarkenton (Virginia) v. Mark Brunell (Syracuse)
Tendown March 13, 2016
Sunday, March 13, 2016
Tendown 216 is here. This is 217.
1.
2. I don't really care about the transcripts. Although, I'm not opposed to asking for them. Really it's that Clinton has two decades of supporting policies which favor these corporations to the extent where they want to pay her more money for an hour than I see in years - and about the obvious expectation those corporations have that she'll continue to to support those policies if elected President - and about the degree to which, as Democrats like Clinton have been doing for two decades, this type of thing minimizes the degree to which Democrats can call out Republicans for being in the pocket of corporate dollars and the broader issue of concentrated political power in the hands of the very few.
She is who she's always been. She's a Clinton. We'll get the third Clinton term. If the first two were what you wanted from your Democratic President, then vote for her.
3. Trumpanomics
4. The Klan Was Never Leftist. Stop.
5.Your next President had a helluva day. White supremacists...people who stand up to them...both sides need to calm down...
And decided to give an attaboy to the Reagans on, of all things, AIDS.
6. Michigan
7. Clinton tried to red bait Sanders this week. 'Cause Democrats. Will someone pin her to this?
8. Trump compared himself to Lincoln this week. I told an okay joke, but nothing better than I tell any other week. This one got viewed 40,000 times and it going to wind up as the most read single item I've ever written. I started writing for public consumption with a column in my 7th grade newspaper over 30 years ago.
9. Trump.
The mistake is thinking the violence hasn't been lurking; I wrote about the guns that were a feature of the debate over health care reform in this blog 7 years ago. It was the Governor of Arizona who talked about the possibility of "second amendment remedies" if the right lost that fight. I would strongly suggest that threat of violence "cold dead hands" is central to our inability to get stronger gun control legislation despite support from the vast majority of the public.
Abortion is the canary in the coal mine - every abortion provider in the country lives with threat of violence and we don't treat that as terrorism, we treat it as debate. And now we have a Presidential candidate encouraging violence from the stage.
In a subsequent interviewer, the Trump supporter who commits this batter said he didn't know if the protester might be "in ISIS" and said said next time, someone might have to kill him.
Neither Trump, nor any of his GOP opponents, condemned the action.
I've been talking about the possibility of fascism in this blog for years; I do not think Trump will become President and, if he does, I do not think his Administration will be objectively worse than would Ted Cruz - but the section of (by and large) disaffected white America who got emboldened by all the credibility we gave to the Tea Party is looking to hurt people if they think they can do so without consequence. There are hundreds of thousands of Americans who view George Zimmerman as a hero because he killed a black kid and got away with it.
10.
And one more.
That's all for this time. I'll be back next time. if there is a next time...
Your pal,
Jim
1.
Democratic turnout down 37% in states with new voting restrictions vs 13% in states without https://t.co/bexlBWYjkm pic.twitter.com/wo2nDZ6WtE— Ari Berman (@AriBerman) March 4, 2016
2. I don't really care about the transcripts. Although, I'm not opposed to asking for them. Really it's that Clinton has two decades of supporting policies which favor these corporations to the extent where they want to pay her more money for an hour than I see in years - and about the obvious expectation those corporations have that she'll continue to to support those policies if elected President - and about the degree to which, as Democrats like Clinton have been doing for two decades, this type of thing minimizes the degree to which Democrats can call out Republicans for being in the pocket of corporate dollars and the broader issue of concentrated political power in the hands of the very few.
She is who she's always been. She's a Clinton. We'll get the third Clinton term. If the first two were what you wanted from your Democratic President, then vote for her.
3. Trumpanomics
4. The Klan Was Never Leftist. Stop.
5.Your next President had a helluva day. White supremacists...people who stand up to them...both sides need to calm down...
And decided to give an attaboy to the Reagans on, of all things, AIDS.
Meanwhile...Sanders...Hillary Clinton: The Reagans, particularly Nancy, helped start "a national conversation" about HIV and AIDS. https://t.co/7sZp8X53fb— MSNBC (@MSNBC) March 11, 2016
6. Michigan
| CANDIDATES | VOTE | PCT. | DELEGATES | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 590,386 | 49.9% | 65 | ||
| 570,949 | 48.2 | 58 | ||
| Other | 22,505 | 1.9 | — |
1,183,840 votes, 99% reporting (4,801 of 4,830 precincts)
Winner called by A.P.
7. Clinton tried to red bait Sanders this week. 'Cause Democrats. Will someone pin her to this?
8. Trump compared himself to Lincoln this week. I told an okay joke, but nothing better than I tell any other week. This one got viewed 40,000 times and it going to wind up as the most read single item I've ever written. I started writing for public consumption with a column in my 7th grade newspaper over 30 years ago.
Lincoln. Not a hero. I like guys who don't get shot, okay? If I'm in that theater, different outcome. Loser. Sad. https://t.co/mgFkuaXnMx— Jim Jividen (@JimJividen) March 9, 2016
9. Trump.
The mistake is thinking the violence hasn't been lurking; I wrote about the guns that were a feature of the debate over health care reform in this blog 7 years ago. It was the Governor of Arizona who talked about the possibility of "second amendment remedies" if the right lost that fight. I would strongly suggest that threat of violence "cold dead hands" is central to our inability to get stronger gun control legislation despite support from the vast majority of the public.
Abortion is the canary in the coal mine - every abortion provider in the country lives with threat of violence and we don't treat that as terrorism, we treat it as debate. And now we have a Presidential candidate encouraging violence from the stage.
In a subsequent interviewer, the Trump supporter who commits this batter said he didn't know if the protester might be "in ISIS" and said said next time, someone might have to kill him.
Neither Trump, nor any of his GOP opponents, condemned the action.
I've been talking about the possibility of fascism in this blog for years; I do not think Trump will become President and, if he does, I do not think his Administration will be objectively worse than would Ted Cruz - but the section of (by and large) disaffected white America who got emboldened by all the credibility we gave to the Tea Party is looking to hurt people if they think they can do so without consequence. There are hundreds of thousands of Americans who view George Zimmerman as a hero because he killed a black kid and got away with it.
10.
More scenes of protesters celebrating and shouting "Bernie, Bernie" after Trump cancelled pic.twitter.com/L7oB1eekMw— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) March 12, 2016
And one more.
That's all for this time. I'll be back next time. if there is a next time...
Your pal,
Jim
Tendown March 6, 2016
Sunday, March 6, 2016
Here's 215. This is Tendown 216.
1. Trump's doing this thing where he walks as far down the line as he possibly can without saying "hey, become an angry mob and beat up protesters." But you can see it from here.
I'll defend you in court.
White supremacists.
The full list.
Neo-Nazis.
2. Authoritarianism
3.
4.
5.
1. Trump's doing this thing where he walks as far down the line as he possibly can without saying "hey, become an angry mob and beat up protesters." But you can see it from here.
I'll defend you in court.
White supremacists.
The full list.
Neo-Nazis.
2. Authoritarianism
3.
4.
5.
8. Ah, Texas.
10.
And one more...
That's all for this time. I'll be back next time. if there is a next time...
Your pal,
Jim
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)








