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The Giants Win the Pennant. Again.

Tuesday, October 23, 2012








3 elimination wins on the road in Cincinnati.

3 elimination wins in the NLCS.

And we're back in the Series.

Ideally I'll have time tomorrow for a more detailed post; my look at the history of SFG in the World Series will go up at the other place and I'll link to it at the very least - but for now I'll say this; I picked us to lose to the Reds in 5; I picked us to lose to the Cards in 7.

I'll keep going.

We lose to the Tigers in 7.  There's no reason to think Zito beats Verlander in either game 1 or 5 (anyone can beat anyone, but it's an enormous mismatch, an all time mismatch - I'd have to run the numbers but I'd bet Zito is an all time bad game one starting WS pitcher) meaning we need to win 4 out of the other 5 games to take the series.  4 out of 5 is not the side you want to play.

It's close, both teams are sub 90 pythagorean win teams, making it the second worst WS in history; you can't call either side more than a slight favorite.

But honesty compels me to pick the Tigers.

Not that I care even a tiny bit.

The Giants Win the Pennant.  Again.










Game 7

Monday, October 22, 2012



I have for you one number.


Over the past 35 postseasons, 14 previous teams have won a Game 6 at home to force a Game 7 with 13 of those 14 teams then going on to win Game 7.


13.




Vogelsong

Sunday, October 21, 2012



The San Francisco Giants drafted 20 year old Ryan Vogelsong 14 years ago.  Our top pick that year was Nate Bump; in 2011 after 13 minor league seasons and almost 1100 minor league innings pitched, Bump was still pitching for Lehigh Valley.

Now is the time when I'd say something like "it's hard to make it in the Show" but that's a little more Ring Lardner than I can get away with.

Vogelsong was in the same Single A clubhouse with Giants farmhands like Damon Minor and Joe Nathan; in the same Double A clubhouse with Scott Linebrink and Cody Ransom; in the same Triple A clubhouse with Calvin Murray and Ryan Jensen.  Lot of Ghosts of Giants Past, Well Less Past and More Ghost of Giants Never in Vogelsong's real view mirror.

And then he was gone - sent to Pittsburgh in 2001 in the Jason Schmidt trade.

When your prospects leave, particularly in what turned out to be an incredible heist, you lose track of them quickly; one day Vogelsong's someone you're keeping track of in Shreveport, and the next he's just another guy bouncing around.

Nashville.
Lynchburg.
Altoona.
Indianapolis.
3 seasons in Japan.  And not great seasons.  Ryan Vogelsong was 11-14 with an ERA over 4 in over 200 innings pitched before returning to the States in 2010 to get kicked around AAA in both Salt Lake and Lehigh Valley.  33 year old Ryan Vogelsong hadn't thrown a pitch in the major leagues in five years when he returned to the Giants organization in 2011.

Ryan Vogelsong had been gone a decade.  He missed our losing Game 7 of the World Series; he missed our getting knocked out of the playoffs on a home plate collision; he missed Barry Bonds breaking both the single season and career home run records; he missed the bottoming out of the organization at the end of the first decade of the 2000s and he missed the first World Series Championship in the history of San Francisco.

Almost all of the pivotal moments in recent Giants history - and Ryan Vogelsong, who first signed a Giants contract when Bill Clinton was President, has no connection to any of them.

In 2011, Ryan Vogelsong had his career year; he had more value (by WAR, B-Ref version) in 2011 than the entire rest of his career combined, and tonight, with the Giants having already won four elimination games in this year's postseason, Ryan Vogelsong struck out 9 (his career high) and won his second game of the NLCS.

Ryan Vogelsong is 34; I don't know what level of reflection he allows himself tonight - if he'll think about Altoona or the Hanshin Tigers - if he'll think about that 20 year old kid who signed his first contract in 1998 and what would become of him.  I know in my own life during moments of unexpected, seemingly life altering triumph who I've most wanted to tell is an earlier version of me; to tell him to hang in there, to keep punching, that a day would come where I'd approximate the person I wanted to be.

I don't know if Ryan Vogelsong does any of that tonight.

I do know that he got the Giants to Game 7.  See you Monday.









The Best 100 Players in the NBA 2012-13



ESPN has done its now annual ranking of the top 500 players in the NBA.  That's Eddy Curry.  Number 500.

I don't do 500, but here is my ranking of the 100 best players in the NBA as projected for the 2012-13 season.  Note, this is not a fantasy ranking.  Don't use it for your draft.

In parentheses is the ESPN rank.

1. L.James Miami (1)
2. K. Durant OKCity (2)
3. C.Paul LAC (4)
4. D.Howard LAL (3)
5. R.Westbrook OKC (9)
6. DWade Miami (8)
7. A. Bynum Phil (13)
8. B.Griffin (14)
9. K.Irving (22)
10. K.Love (7)
11. JSmith (31)
12. DWilliams (10)
13. MGinobli (25)
14. GMonroe (49)
15. JHarden (26)
16. KBryant (6)
17. SCurry (40)
18. CAnthony (17)
19. JLin (78)
20. RAnderson (50)
21. LAldridge (20)
22. AJefferson (44)
23. BJennings (61)
24. PGasol (15)
25. RRondo (12)
26. AHorford (30)
27. JNoah (36)
28. PPierce (29)
29. PMillsap (53)
30. TLawson (12)
31. TDuncan (27)
32. AIguodala (28)
33. EGordon (38)
34. KLowry (51)
35. CBosh (18)
36. SIbaka (41)
37. DNowitzki (11)
38. KFaried (71)
39. DCousins (34)
40. JWall (55)
41. ADavis (62)
42. JHolliday (73)
43. TParker (16)
44. NBatum (63)
45. DGallinari (54)
46. PGeorge (75)
47. KGarnett (21)
48. DRose (5)
49. KLeonard (95)
50. LWilliams (88)
51. MGasol (24)
52. DGranger (39)
53. RGay (32)
54. TChandler (23)
55. MConley (65)
56. RHibbert (35)
57. BLopez (60)
58. GDragic (83)
59. MGortat (57)
60. EIlyasova (72)
61. TYoung (91)
62. AVerejao (74)
63. JMcGee (77)
64. ZRandolph (34)
65. DLee (59)
66. K Walker(199)
67. IThomas(150)
68. J Teague(109)
69. JJohnson (33)
70. MEllis (46)
71. ABogut (45)
72. LDeng (37)
73. AKirelenko (79)
74. RRubio (47)
75. GWallace (70)
76. SNash (19)
77. CBoozer (67)
78. TGibson (82)
79. KHumphries (84)
80. BWright(212)
81. Nene (52)
82. TEvans (69)
83. KMartin (76)
84. MThornton(131)
85. RSessions(146)
86. RStuckey (103)
87. TSplitter (149)
89. DFavors (89)
90. GAyon(214)
91. DJordan (86)
92. DWest (56)
93. TAllen (66)
94. ABargnani (58)
95. JBayless(197)
96. GHayward(123)
97. RBeaubois(204)
98. DWright(182)
99. WMatthews(109)
100. DGreen (160)
-Highest ranked ESPN not to make my list - AStoudemire (43), RAllen (64), LScola (68), AAfflalo (80)

Zito.

Saturday, October 20, 2012

The LCS moved to a best of 7 in '85; 33 teams fell behind 3 games to 1 and only 6 of those teams won.

In MLB history, 76 teams have fallen behind in any best of 7 three games to one and only 11 of those teams won.

The Giants, either SFG or NYG have never made such a comeback.

Barry Zito has been a San Francisco Giant for six seasons; in only one did his adjusted ERA match league average.  That was 2009.  Barry Zito's total number of wins above replacement (B-Ref) version in six years as a Giant is 3.

Three.  He's an average of half a win better than a freely available pitcher per season.  Half a win a season.

In that time he's made 99 million dollars.  3 wins above replacement.  99 million dollars.

Barry Zito is one of the all time sports free agent busts.  99 million dollars (and more to come) for no more value than you could get for the league minimum.  It is astounding.

Last night Barry Zito kept the Giants alive.  It was an improbable outcome. No team in MLB history had ever won 4 road elimination games in the same postseason.  Until now.

It's a temporary outcome, the series is still 3-2, we still have a Melky sized hole in the middle of the lineup and there isn't a starting pitcher you love seeing take the mound.

But we live another day because of Barry Zito.  In 2012.

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