2012 NFL Playoff Predictions - Week 2, The Divisional Round(and Golden Globe Predictions)

Last week, I was 3-1 against the spread and 3-1 straight up.  If not for the Saints deciding to swat away Detroit's backdoor cover, I'd have hit a perfect ATS.

I don't like any game as strongly as did I Houston giving the FG last week, but I'll still give you each game in the order of my belief in it.

Houston +7.5 Baltimore (Ravens win)
A week ago, I said Houston would get to Baltimore and lose, but if I were back here for round 2 writing "the Texans are going to the AFC Championship game" don't be shocked. 

I'm not writing that, Yates is a third string rookie QB going on the road against a rested Ravens Defense; I'm picking Baltimore to win.  That said - this is a field goal game, Houston's just as good as Baltimore; the public undervalues how good Houston was throughout the year and maybe overvalues the current version of Baltimore's defense.  I think there's a better chance that Houston wins outright than that Baltimore wins by double digits.(win/win)

Giants +7.5 Packers (GB wins)
A week ago I said if any unexpected team won SB46 that it would be the Giants, I liked them to cover against Atlanta and they matchup as well as any team does against the champs.  I'm taking the champs, they're better than NY and were they to win by 10 it wouldn't surprise me.  But I'm not giving more than a touchdown.  I like this game a good bit less than the Houston game.(win/loss)

Niners +4 Saints (NO wins)
Yeah, it's up to 4 now.  I picked the Saints to win the whole thing a week ago and if I'm really wrong about anything this week its this game and the Saints beat us (I'm a Niner fan) by three touchdowns.  They're the best team in football (I say that like it's so, but in truth I don't have any idea if they're better than the Packers or not) and we're a good team who hasn't faced an offense of nearly this quality all season.  But given the rest, given the long trip they're taking west, given the ability of our defensive line to get pressure without blitzing, this could be a field goal game so I'm taking the points.(win/loss)

NE -13.5 Denver
Yes, I hate giving that many points.  Yes.  The factors that led me to take Denver getting 9 last week aren't present this week; to me this feels like 35-10.  It was just two weeks ago that Tebow couldn't score a touchdown at home against the Chiefs, there's no reason why he isn't that guy this week instead of the guy who beat the Steelers.  I do not like giving 13.5, but gun to my head, I think it's more likely they cover than don't.(win/win)

If I get a chance, I'll give you some Golden Globe winners in this spot to help ease whatever damage I otherwise do to your portfolio with these picks.

Film:
Drama - The Descendants (its favored, but maybe not by as much as the likelihood of victory, Hugo is really only other possibility)
Comedy/Musical - The Artist (lock)
Animated - Rango (if not, then Tintin)
Foreign - A Separation (as likely as is Descendants; In the Land of Blood and Honey is only other possibility)
Drama Actor - Clooney (favored, but not quite by as much as likelihood of victory, Pitt is only other possibility)
Drama Actress - Streep (Davis just won at Critics Choice, so she's a possibility, but Streep's almost as likely as Clooney and maybe worth a small investment)
Comedy Actor - Dujardin (lock, if you're just paying attention now to the Oscar race, the Artist has a solid lead for Best Picture)
Comedy Actress -Williams (not quite a "hey, was she in the Artist too" lock, but close)
Supporting Actor - Plummer (only Brooks has a chance)
Supporting Actress - Spencer (pretty close to a lock, only Chastain has a chance)
Director - Scorsese (this is a close race, a coin flip with Hazanavicius)
Screenplay - Allen (lock, is he going to the ceremony?)
Song - The Living Proof (jump ball with Hello Hello)
(11-2)
TV:
Drama: Homeland (Boardwalk would be the alternative; Homeland also should win)
Comedy: Modern Family (I don't see much chance of anything else winning, it would get my vote given the shows they chose to nominate; I'd have an entirely different slate of nominees)
TV Movie: Downton Abbey (my vote would be Mildred Pierce and thats only other choice)
Drama Actor: Grammer (wide open with Buscemi, Cranston, Lewis as the other options - my vote would be Cranston)
Actress: Danes (lock, she gets my vote also)
Comedy Actor: LeBlanc (I'll say he upsets Baldwin, Baldwin gets my vote)
Comedy Actress: Deschanel (this is a tailor made Globe pick; it's Dern, also another Globe-y type pick, otherwise, my vote to Poehler)
TV Movie Actor: Elba (this could go to any of the nominees, my vote to Hurt)
TV Movie Actress: Winslet (lock, also gets my vote)
TV Supporting Actor: Dinklage (either he or Pearce, and that's who would get my vote)
TV Supporting Actress: Lange (if not it's Smith, my vote to Wood)
(10-1)

Prime 9 - Left Fielders. The 9 Greatest Left Fielders of All Time

900 post 19th century games in LF was the minimum requirement to make the MLB Network list. My top 200 is here.

MLB Network List:

1. Williams
2. Bonds
3. Musial
4. Henderson
5. Ramirez
6. Yastrzemski
7. Simmons
8. Kiner
9. Raines


My List:
1. Bonds
2. Williams
3. Musial
4. Henderson
5. Delahanty
6. JJackson
7. Yastrzemski
8. Clarke
9. Raines

-Delahanty and Shoeless Joe get knocked off the MLB list due to their minimum post 19th century positional games played requirement.

So, I'm two short.  I had Manny on my RF list, but he was a tick short of the games requirement for the MLB list there - so, I'd put him on this list if forced to remove Delahanty, I'd put Ramirez right in his slot, 5th all time, and slide everyone down.  Then I'd have Ducky Medwick at the bottom and push everyone else up.
Like second base, there's just no question who the top 4 are, I'd argue the only ordering question is Williams/Musial at number two.  Absent a moral penalty, it is inarguable who the best left fielder of all time is. Williams had a slightly better bat (OPS+ 190 to Barry's 181) but wasn't close to Bonds in any other area of the game.  Bonds finished his career with 22 defensive wins above replacement more than Williams.

Prime 9 - Center Fielders. The 9 Greatest Center Fielders of All Time

I've got a CF with fewer than a thousand games at the position and one who played in the 19th century, they'll each be excluded from the MLB list, so I'll add two. My top 200 is here.

MLB Network

1. Mays
2. Cobb
3. Mantle
4. Speaker
5. DiMaggio
6. Griffey
7. Snider
8. Edmonds
9. Puckett

My List:
1. Mays
2. Cobb
3. Mantle
4. Speaker
5. DiMaggio
6. Hamilton
7. Griffey
8. Edmonds
9. RSmith

Hamilton and Reggie Smith wouldn't qualify for the MLB list, if I had those rules I'd add Beltran/Dawson.  Beltran's 9 defensive wins above replacement better than Duke Snider for their careers.  Reggie Smith's one defensive win better than that, with an OPS+137.  MLB's list matched mine, really 1-6 since Billy Hamilton wasn't eligible for their list.

The 40 Greatest Players not in the Baseball Hall of Fame

My top 200 is here.

This is a list of players who could be in the MLB Hall of Fame (so, as of 2012, not Clemens or Bonds or Shoeless Joe, all of whom would be on this list otherwise) but are not.

The MLB Network list is first, then my list. (MLB has now done a full top 40, so I will do as time permits although probably in a rougher order after the top 9).



MLB Network List:

1. Tim Raines
2. Jack Morris
3. Mark McGwire
4. Minnie Minoso
5. Jeff Bagwell
6. Lee Smith
7. Alan Trammell
8. Ted Simmons
9. Dick Allen
10. Jim Kaat
11. Luis Tiant
12. Dale Murphy
13. Ken Boyer
14. Joe Torre
15. Dwight Evans
16. Rafael Palmeiro
17. Steve Garvey
18. Gil Hodges
19. Don Mattingly
20. Keith Hernandez
21. Edgar Martinez
22. Tommy John
23. Lou Whitaker
24. Larry Walker
25. Will Clark
26. Tony Oliva
27. Dave Parker
28. Ron Guidry
29. Maury Wills
30. Buck O'Neil
31. Albert Belle
32. Dave Concepcion
33. Juan Gonzalez
34. Jimmy Wynn
35. Bill Freehan
36. Bobby Grich
37. Harold Baines
38. Fred McGriff
39. Mark Grace
40. Roger Maris

My List:
1. Bob Caruthers
2. Bobby Grich
3. Edgar Martinez
4. Mark McGwire
5. Dick Allen
6. Jeff Bagwell
7. Bill Dahlen
8. Alan Trammell
9. Lou Whitaker

And my other 31, in a rough order:
10. Kevin Brown
11. Tim Raines
12. Rick Reuschel
13. Larry Walker
14. Willie Randolph
15. Dwight Evans
16. Keith Hernandez
17. Rafael Palmeiro
18. Jack Glasscock
19. Tommy John
20. David Cone
21. Reggie Smith
22. Frank Tanana
23. Chuck Finley
24. Luis Tiant
25. Will Clark
26. Darrell Evans
27. John Olerud
28. Jimmy Wynn
29. Stan Hack
30. Graig Nettles
31. Joe Torre
32. Ken Boyer
33. Buddy Bell
34. Bret Saberhagen
35. Bernie Williams
36. Robin Ventura
37. Bobby Bonds
38. Jack Clark
39. Jose Cruz
40. Dave Stieb

Prime 9 - Right Fielders. The 9 Greatest Right Fielders of All Time

A thousand games in right after 1901 was the MLB cutoff for the list.  That's going to just ace Manny off their list.  I'll add one to mine. My top 200 is here.

MLB Network List
1. Ruth
2. Aaron
3. Ott
4. Robinson
5. Kaline
6. Clemente
7. Crawford
8. RJackson
9. Gwynn

My List
1. Ruth
2. Aaron
3. Ott
4. Robinson
5. Ramirez
6. Heilmann
7. Kaline
8. Waner
9. Clemente

Sheffield would be next on my list.  Harry Heilmann had an OPS+ of 148.  Clemente's, for example, was 130.  Gwynn's was 132.