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The Bottom Line - 2011 League Championship Series Picks

Saturday, October 8, 2011

George W Bush Former President George W. Bush throws the ceremonial first pitch before a game between the Cleveland Indians and the Texas Rangers during the home opener at Rangers Ballpark April 6, 2009 in Arlington, Texas.  (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** George W. Bush

I picked the two best teams to come out of the MLB playoffs, Philadelphia and New York.

So, there's that.

I got the other two series right and will, it should not surprise you, pick those two winners, Texas and Milwaukee, to now advance to the World Series.

Philadelphia and New York each lost for the same two reasons (1) as I say, every single year, anyone can win a short series; I make predictions because that's what one does, but there's not really any result in a playoff series that should shock and (2) the winners had some favorable matchups that they were able to take advantage of, even though the losers were significantly better regular season teams.

That doesn't stop here - Texas should beat Detroit (that top of the order Tigers lineup should not be going to the World Series) but the Rangers have lefty arms and Detroit has right handed bats; when you add that to the Tigers ability to send Verlander to the mound in Games 1,4 and 7 - this is the best possible situation for the Tigers to win.

I don't think they will; had the Yankees come through in Game 5, my pick was going to switch to Texas, their bats+bullpen looks to me like a world champion.

My primary thought about the NL is Giants fans should be extra frustrated; this is why you don't kick seasons away the way we did this year; if we start Belt all year - if we sign even a league average shortstop in the offseason - I think maybe we make it.  And if we make it, with the top end starting pitching, the number of bullpen arms, and Sandoval/Beltran/and hopefully a Belt who worked out his adjustment to big league pitching over the course of the summer - then we might still be playing baseball this weekend.

I'll stick with Milwaukee, they've got the pitching advantage in every game other than when Carpenter goes, and whereas the Tigers didn't need Verlander to finish the Yanks, Carpenter had to throw game 5 in the NLDS.  I don't like all those outs in the Brewers lineup, but I'll say they get through.

I'm for Milwaukee.

2011 College Football Picks, Week 6

Friday, October 7, 2011

Three straight weeks over .500.  For the season, I'm 31-33-1.

Minnesota +1 Purdue(loss)
Georgia Tech -14.5 Maryland(loss)
Miami (OH) +2 Army(win)
Tennessee +2 Georgia(loss)
Michigan -7.5 Northwestern(win)

2-3
33-35-1

I Pick Every NFL Game in 2011 - Week 5

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

I'm below .500 against the spread in each of the last two weeks; but for the season am still 36-26-2 ATS, and 46-18 straight up.  As will be the case going forward, my schedule requires I make an initial post Wednesday, but I'm almost certain to return Friday to make some changes.

Colts -2.5 KC(loss/loss)
Arizona +3 Minnesota(Vikes win game)(loss/win)
Bills+3 Eagles(win/win)
Houston -6 Oakland(loss/loss)
NO -6 Carolina(loss/win)
Bengals +2.5 Jags(Jags win game)(win/loss)
Titans +3.5 Steelers(Steelers win game)(loss/win)
NYG -9.5 Seattle(NYG straight up smells like a suicide play)(that was a bad smell, loss/loss)
Niners -3 TB(win/win)
NYJ +9 NE (Patriots win game)(push/win)
Den +4 SD (loss/loss)
GB -6 Atl(win/win)
Det -6 Chi (win/win)

ATS: 5-7-1, 41-33-3
SU: 8-5, 54-23

The 200 Greatest Major League Baseball Players of All Time, 2012 Ed. 191-200

Tuesday, October 4, 2011

The introduction, including methodology, is here.


191.       Buddy Bell 3B 1972-89 Indians/Rangers
           WAR+WARP/2=             55.4
           Translated BA/OBP/SLG: .284/.348/.428
           OPS+ 109
           PA: 10,000
           MVPQ=none

192.    CC Sabathia LHP Indians 2001-

           55.35
           179-121
           ERA+ 125
           IP: 2300
           MVPQ=none

193.   Andy Pettitte LHP 1995-2010 Yankees
          55.2
          212-185
          ERA+ 117
          IP: 3000
          MVPQ=none

194.    Bret Saberhagen RHP 1984-01 Royals
           54.95
           188-113
           ERA+ 126
           IP: 2500
           MVPQ=1989

195.       Bernie Williams CF 1991-06 Yankees
           54.85
           .296/.381/.477
           OPS+ 125
           PA: 9000
           MVPQ=none

196.    Hank Greenberg 1B 1930-47 Tigers
           54.6
           .294/.386/.616
           OPS+ 158
           PA: 6100
           MVPQ=1937


197. Jesse Burkett 1890-05 Spiders LF
        54.4
        OPS+ 140
        .320/.407/.490
        PA: 9600
        MVPQ: 1901

198.    Zack Wheat LF Dodgers 1909-27
           54.25
           .302/.360/.487
           OPS+ 129
           PA: 10,000
           MVPQ=none


199.    Robin Ventura 3B White Sox 1989-04
           54.2
           .273/.367/.450
           OPS+ 114
           PA: 8300
           MVPQ=none


200.    Bobby Bonds RF Giants 1968-81
           53.85
          .272/.360/.513
          OPS+ 129
           PA: 8100
           MVPQ=none

It's a Giants cluster at the edge of the rankings, with Jack Clark/Bill Terry just outside and Bobby Bonds manning the gates, and there's a whole gaggle of Yankees at the top of this section.

Let's talk about the bats.  Greenberg has the best we've seen so far, the first with an OPS+ over 150 and a translated slugging over .600.  He only had 2/3 of the plate appearances of Stargell, which accounts for his depressed value.  But Greenberg's the best of the position players on the list so far.  Burkett also had an MVPQ season and almost gets to my favorite translated slashline, a 3/4/5 - missing just 10 slugging points.

Saberhagen/Sabathia/Steib all have approximately the same ERA+; Sabes is the only one with an MVPQ season; obviously Sabathia will continue to accumulate more value, but he's only 200 IP behind Saberhagen right now.  Let's say Saberhagen is the best pitcher on the list because of that one big year.

So - if I'm starting my baseball team (as opposed to measuring how much value they accumulated in their careers) my all time team right now would have two members:

1B Greenberg (the OPS+ of 150, the translated slugging of .600 and the MVPQ season)
RHP Saberhagen (the MVPQ season)

Onto the next ten.



         

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