2011 NBA Playoff Predictions

My pre-season picks are here.

I picked against the Vegas over/under season win totals like I do with every sport.  And as is always the case, I was successful.

Atlantic - 3 win, 2 loss
Central - 2 win, 3 loss
Southeast - 5 wins, 0 loss, including my two biggest differences with the Vegas line in the East, Washington and Charlotte

Southwest - 3 wins, 2 loss
Northwest - 2 wins, 3 loss
Pacific - 4 wins, 1 loss, splitting my two biggest differences with the Vegas line in the West, Sacramento and the Clippers

That's 19 winners, 11 losers if you invested in my NBA advice.  And if you invested more in my biggest disparity plays with the line, that finished 3-1.

When it comes to an individual game or an individual series, my thoughts really are only marginally more valuable than anyone else's.  Always a good preface before playoff picks, I recognize.  But before a season starts, I'm..I hesitate to say always, but pretty darn close..always giving you winners.

My pre-season finals matchup was Miami/Lakers, and I'm going to say that still happens - but I'm largely making this up.

East
Chicago over Indiana in 4
Orlando over Atlanta in 5
Miami over Philadelphia in 5
Boston over NY in 6

-There's no earthly chance, outside of multiple injuries, that the Bulls lose to Indiana.  I'd be surprised if any of the other series went other than this; Orlando's margin for error is the smallest of any of the top teams, as they rely entirely on Dwight Howard (my choice for MVP); Philly is the best of the 4 underdogs, and NY is a sexy matchup and one I hope goes in favor of the Knicks.

Chicago over Orlando
Miami over Boston

Miami over Chicago

-I have a mancrush on the James/Wade combo and am emotionally invested in seeing them come out of the East.  They're a coin flip against the Bulls; I feel pretty good about the matchups in the second round for the favorites.

West
San Antonio over Memphis in 7
Denver over OKC in 7
Portland over Dallas in 7
Lakers over NO in 4

-None of the series are as extreme as the Bulls/Pacers matchup, but you'd be really surprised if the Hornets took the Lakers out.  Everything else is brutal; the Ginobli injury really tightens up that Memphis series; OKC could win the whole damn thing and I have them out in the first round; and Portland/Dallas is a tossup series.

Denver over San Antonio
Lakers over Portland

-I like whomever comes out of Denver/OKC to make the conference finals.  The Lakers could lose that matchup to either the Blazers or Mavs, but you couldn't bet that way.

Lakers over Denver

-You could absolutely pick against the Lakers in this round, in fact, once we know if it's Denver or OKC, consider picking them.

But from here - I've got the same Heat/Lakers matchup I had before the season, and I'll take Miami to win the chip.

I'm guessing Denver/Chicago won't quite pull in the same numbers.

The Top 10 MLB Players at Each Position, 2011 ed.

The MLB Network did a series of shows over the winter breaking down the current "top 10" players at each position.  I have U-Verse, and we've just added MLB Network, so I was unaware of these lists.

But it's a good idea, so I'll play.  As I see the re-airings of their shows, I'll edit in those choices in parentheses for comparison.  So, again, these rankings are mine - the MLB Network rankings are in parentheses, or will be once I see the episodes.

Top 10 Catchers in MLB Right Now
1. Joe Mauer (2)

2. Brian McCann (3)

3. Buster Posey (2)

-The greatest catcher, by career value in San Francisco, in SFG history is Tom Haller.  He is not long for that spot.  Note that I have my guy ranked 3rd whereas MLB has him second.  This should disabuse you of notions I'm playing favorites.

4. Carlos Santana (6)

5. Geovany Soto (unranked)

6. Carlos Ruiz (7)

7. Kurt Suzuki (9)

8. Yadier Molina (5)

9. Matt Wieters (10)

10. Miguel Montero (unranked)

MLB#4 Victor Martinez

MLB#8 John Buck

I'd have Martinez ranked 5th if he were still a catcher; I didn't consider him eligible for this list.  

Top 10 First Basemen in MLB Right Now

1. Albert Pujols (1)

2. Joey Votto (4)

3. Miguel Cabrera (2)

4. Mark Teixeira (5)

5. Adrian Gonzalez (3)

6. Prince Fielder (7)

7. Ryan Howard (6)

8. Justin Morneau (9)

9. Paul Konerko (8)

10. Derrek Lee (unranked)

MLB#10 Kendrys Morales

Top 10 Second Basemen in MLB Right Now

1. Dustin Pedroia (3)

2. Robinson Cano (1)

3. Ian Kinsler (6)

4. Dan Uggla (4)

5. Rickie Weeks (7)

6. Kelly Johnson (9)

7. Ben Zobrist

8. Chase Utley (2)

-That's an injury ranking.  

9. Brandon Phillips (5)

10. Aaron Hill
MLB#8 Brian Roberts
MLB#10 Neil Walker

Top 10 Shortstops in MLB Right Now

1. Troy Tulowitzki (2)

-My spell check red flagged it, suggesting Berkowitz (like the Son of Sam) or tuberculosis 

2. Hanley Ramirez (1)

3. Yunel Escobar (unranked)

-The guy they have third I don't have ranked at all.  We'll see at year's end who was right.

4. Alexei Ramirez (7)

5. Jose Reyes (4)

6. Rafael Furcal (unranked)

7. Stephen Drew (8)

8. Starlin Castro (10)

9. Jimmy Rollins (6)

-Harold Reynolds said Rollins was one of the six best players in all of baseball.  I am concerned that Harold Reynolds has been duped into watching tapes from 2007 and thinking they are current games. I would like to offer him the entire National League vs. the Rockies for the pennant and put up our respective salaries.  

10. Cliff Pennington (unranked)

MLB#3 The Late Derek Jeter

MLB#5 Elvis Andrus

MLB#9 Marco Scutaro

Top 10 Third Basemen in MLB Right Now

1. Evan Longoria (1)

2. Kevin Youkilis (4)

3. David Wright (6)

4. Ryan Zimmerman (2)

5. Alex Rodriguez (3)

6. Adrian Beltre (5)

7. Pedro Alvarez

8. Chipper Jones

9. Pablo Sandoval

10. Scott Rolen (8)
MLB#7 Mark Reynolds
MLB#9 Placido Polanco
MLB#10 Casey McGehee

The Top 10 Left Fielders in MLB Right Now
1. Ryan Braun (1)
2. Carlos Gonzalez (3)
3. Josh Hamilton (2)
4. Carl Crawford (4)
5. Matt Holliday (5)
6. Ryan Ludwick
7. Jason Bay (8)
8. Luke Scott
9. Martin Prado (7)
10. Alex Gordon
MLB#6 Delmon Young
MLB#9 Carlos Lee
MLB#10 Raul Ibanez





The Top 10 Center Fielders in MLB Right Now
1. Matt Kemp
2. Alex Rios
3. Curtis Granderson
4. Chris Coghlan
5. Andrew McCutcheon
6. Denard Span
7. Adam Jones
8. Shane Victorino
9. BJ Upton
10. Andres Torres

The Top 10 Right Fielders in MLB Right Now
1. Nelson Cruz (6)
2. Jayson Werth (3)
3. Jay Bruce (unranked)
-Similar to the shortstop ranking, they don't have Bruce ranked, and I don't have their top RF ranked.  We'll see at season's end who was right.
4. Mike Stanton (8)
5. Jason Heyward (5)
6. SS Choo (2)
7. Andre Ethier (5)
8. Jose Bautista (4)
9. Nick Swisher (unranked)
10. Torii Hunter (unranked)
-My guess is they'll put Hunter in their CF rankings.
MLB#1 Ichiro Suzuki
MLB#9 Nick Markakis
MLB#10 Justin Upton
-Gonna take a lot of singles for Ichiro to be better than Jay Bruce in 2011.

The Top 10 Pitchers in MLB Right Now
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Tim Lincecum
-I had Halladay ahead in my top 100 overall, in fact, I've made multiple changes since then; were one to say I'm overly favoring my guy here I wouldn't necessarily disagree.
3. Roy Halladay
4. CC Sabathia
5. Cliff Lee
6. Justin Verlander
7. Josh Johnson
8. Jon Lester
9. Jered Weaver
10. Clayton Kershaw

The Top 10 Relief Pitchers in MLB Right Now
1. Joe Nathan
2. Heath Bell (6)
3. Mariano Rivera (1)
4. Joakim Soria (3)
5. Brian Wilson (2)
6. Aroldis Chapman (10)
7. Rafael Soriano (8)
8. Jonathan Papelbon
9. Jonathan Broxton
10. Matt Thornton
-Most relief performance is unreliable from season to season; it could be that Luke Gregerson is a better pitcher this year than Thornton, but it's a hard thing to forecast.  

MLB#4 Neftali Feliz
MLB#5 Carlos Marmol
MLB#7 Andrew Bailey
MLB#9 Jose Valverde

The Weekly Tendown April 3-9 2011

Dear Internet:

I don't know if I've mentioned, the Giants won the World Series.  The rings were handed out yesterday.  Mine has yet to arrive. Back to back walk offs this weekend have us at 4-4 thusfar; hopefully, Torres won't need to be disabled.  I did more baseball lists Saturday; MLB Network did a "Top 10 Right Now" over the winter, the top 10 players at each position for 2011, but having U-Verse and not getting MLB Network until 9 minutes ago I wasn't aware of it.  I don't know when they'll finish re-airing the episodes, but I knocked out my lists and will probably post them this week.  My 8 class academic term started last Monday, a student inquired what my ideal job would be; I told him writing about sports on the internet.  This perhaps was the wrong answer to establish my academic bonafides in our initial class session.

Here's Tendown 71.

1. I Won't Vote for Obama Again.


The government didn't shut down this weekend.  Obama was pleased, he's presided over the "largest spending cut in our history."  Quite a victory.  Go team.

Let's put aside that the 79 billion dollars less than Obama originally proposed will do harm.  Roads and bridges that won't be built.  Jobs go uncreated.  Needy go unassisted.

And let's put aside the slicing government spending is the polar opposite of what we should be doing right now - juicing the economy with massive spending increases.

Instead focus on the way Democrats acceptance/appropriation of conservative ideas shift discussion rightward, making yesterday's radical right wing firebomb tomorrow's bipartisan bill.

Last December, The Democrats extended the Bush tax cuts.  Cost?  60 billion dollars.  Or just about as much was cut from Obama's budget this week. Remember how angry you were about the Bush tax cuts?  A massive giveaway of wealth to the richest Americans - remember how you said it would increase the deficit - and then literally couldn't believe the audacity of the right wing as those cuts continued even during two wars, the only time in US history those two policies weren't thought of as mutually exclusive?

And now it just is.  Guantanamo?  Still open.  Those two wars?  Now we've added a third.

A week ago, Paul Ryan proposed privatizing Medicare while simultaneously cutting the top marginal tax rate for those who make over 300 grand a year.

It was a Democratic President who said "the era of big government is over".  How certain are you it won't be a Democratic President signing the bill that makes social security a voluntary contribution like a 401K?

If the Republicans are your abusive, violent stepfather the Democrats are your do-nothing mom, at best closing her eyes when he throws open your bedroom door at 2AM, and at worst kicking you out of the house if you ever stand up to him.  The whole country needs a Dan Savage "It Gets Better" program, but the past three decades of evidence would suggest otherwise.

2. I Won't Vote for Obama Again
His civil liberties record approximates his predecessor's  Except when it comes to going after whistleblowers. When it's worse.

3. I Won't Vote for Obama Again.
I guess we don't believe in trials anymore.

4. The Plutocracy
The best piece this week was by Joseph Stiglitz. It's becoming our weekly Tendown feature - the United States is a banana republic:

The upper 1 percent of Americans are now taking in nearly a quarter of the nation’s income every year. In terms of wealth rather than income, the top 1 percent control 40 percent. Their lot in life has improved considerably. Twenty-five years ago, the corresponding figures were 12 percent and 33 percent. One response might be to celebrate the ingenuity and drive that brought good fortune to these people, and to contend that a rising tide lifts all boats. That response would be misguided. While the top 1 percent have seen their incomes rise 18 percent over the past decade, those in the middle have actually seen their incomes fall. For men with only high-school degrees, the decline has been precipitous—12 percent in the last quarter-century alone. All the growth in recent decades—and more—has gone to those at the top. In terms of income equality, America lags behind any country in the old, ossified Europe that President George W. Bush used to deride. Among our closest counterparts are Russia with its oligarchs and Iran.


How to fix it?

Start by taxing millionaires.

5. His Remark Was Not Intended to Be a Factual Statement
My favorite part of the "negotiations" this week was the interjection of abortion into the budget debate.  The plutocrats long ago realized the way to divide the rest of us was on social issues; if they can whip up their base about abortion/gays/and the desire to shove Jesus in a closet, they can just keep sucking dollars into the hands of the powerful few (powerfew?).  As I've written about previously, my absolute favorite manifestation of this is the biblical capitalism discussion, where the David Bartons and Rick Santorums talk about the minimum wage and progressive income tax being fundamentally anti-Jesus.

This week - it was Planned Parenthood.  We can't get a budget deal to avoid a government shutdown because the Republicans are against abortion, after all.

Here's the thing - federal dollars already don't go to fund abortion, that's already part of the law.

But that didn't stop John Kyl from saying abortion is "well over 90% of what Planned Parenthood does"

Well, that's a thing - right?  Republican US Senator John Kyl says we cant provide funds to Planned Parenthood - as 90%, well over 90% of what it does is abortion.  Planned Parenthood=abortion.  Federal money can't go to Planned Parenthood.  The Republicans are taking a moral stand against abortion!

Huh.

Seems like a pretty significant error.

Here was the response from the Senator's office when confronted with that error.  It's my second favorite thing anyone said this week

                                   His remark was not intended to be a factual statement.

I get it now.  That's the mistake I've been making.

When Ryan's budget proposal was announced, one of its underpinnings was from the Heritage Foundation, that by 2021 unemployment would be at 2.8%, which as Krugman notes, hasn't happened since the Korean War.  So they just changed it.  None of the rest of the budget proposal changed.  It's still massive cuts to pay for massive tax decreases for the very wealthiest Americans and our corporate daddies, but had Ryan just added the coda "the projections in this proposal are not intended to be factual statements, or to correspond with any reality, either knowable or unknowable, either dead or undead" then it would have saved some embarrassment.

                                 His remark was not intended to be a factual statement.


That's all it takes.  Someone should have told Barry Bonds about this before closing arguments, as that's clearly with what his lawyers should have led off.

6. My Favorite Thing Anyone Said Last Week
On this morning's Quick Pitch, the MLB Network's daily highlight show, the clip of yesterday's Carlos Ruiz grand slam was shown, and the voiceover from one assumes the Phillies broadcast was:

                                                 Pinch Hit salami for Chooch!


Which I've been saying all day.  As I've written this entire piece, it's been constantly running through my head.

7. The Best Thing Anyone Saw Last Week
You should watch The Killing.  You already didn't watch Lights Out, and it ended this past week.  So watch The Killing; I'm about to lose Friday Night Lights

So hop onto The Killing with me as its leaving the station.

I got two 4 star wrestling matches this week; HHH v. Taker from WM27 and a better match, a 4 1/2 star Daniels v. Edwards from the ROH 9th Anniversary show in February.  I've updated both my post listing every WWF/E 4 star match ever and my 2011 Wrestling Matches of the Year post.  Neither of which I feel like linking to right now.

8. 3 And a Half Brits
Helen Mirren hosted SNL last night.  Elton John last week.  Earlier this season was Russell Brand.  And Gwyneth, who I'm deciding for purposes of the thought is half British.

But even putting her aside - is that the record?  3 Brits in the same SNL season (including two in consecutive weeks).  Is this the most British season of SNL ever?

Here's my other Helen Mirren question; she's John Gielgud in the Arthur remake.  Is the original Arthur good or not good?

Now, I've seen Arthur, but not for 30 years; in my head it's good, I guess, I haven't really considered its artistic quality, maybe ever.  Has anyone seen Arthur in the past..say ten years?  Did they destroy the print?  Was Dudley Moore a figment of our collective imagination like Robert Palmer or Helen Hunt?

9. Right Wing Graft
In 2009, Bristol Palin's abstinence non-profit spent 35 grand in trying to prevent teen pregnancy.  Bristol, however, received a salary of over a quarter million dollars.

Union busting governor Scott Walker, who says Wisconsin can't afford to allow teachers to bargain collectively, gave an $81,000/yr job to a donor's son who doesn't have a college degree (unlike those pesky teachers) but who does have two DUI convictions.

Would you like to see how much Richard Shelby costs you every day?


10. Finally, a Flag Salute I Can Get Behind

 That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time....if there is a next time...

Your pal,

Jim

Every Regular Season San Francisco 49ers Team Ranked by Pythagorean Record+Strength of Schedule

My SFGiants rankings are here; the  number you see is the pro football reference combination of pythagorean record+strength of schedule. Here's every regular season San Francisco 49er team ranked.  Through 2018.

1.     1987 – 13.5 Lost in playoffs to Vikings, Montana, Craig, Rathman, Rice, Lott, McKyer, Haley, Griffin 

2.     1984 – 12.7 World Champions beat Dolphins, Montana, Tyler, Craig, Solomon, Clark, Francis, Lott, Board

3. 1992 – 11.8 Lost NFC Title to Cowboys, Young, Watters, Rice, Taylor, Jones, Davis, Griffin, Romanowski

4. 1995 – 11.8 Lost in playoffs to Packers, Young, Rice, Jones, Taylor, Norton, McDonald, Jackson, Plummer

5.  1994 – 11.6 World Champions beat Chargers, Young, Watters, Floyd, Rice, Taylor, Jones, Norton, Deion

6. 1991 – 10.9 Young, Rice, Haley, Hanks, Rathman, Griffin, Holt, Barton, Foster, McIntyre, Taylor

7. 1989 – 10.7 World Champions beat Broncos, Montana, Craig, Rice, Taylor, Haley, Lott

8. 1953 – 10.7 Tittle, Perry, McElhenny, Nomellini, Wilson, St Clair

9. 1998 – 10.6 Lost in playoffs to Falcons, Young, Hearst, Owens, Rice, Norton, McDonald, BY, Doleman

10. 2012 - 10.2, Lost Super Bowl to Ravens Kaepernick, Gore, Crabtree, Staley, Iuptati, JSmith, ASmith, Willis, Bowman

11. 2013 - 10.1 Lost NFC Title to Seahawks: Kaepernick, Gore, Crabtree, Boldin, Davis, Staley, Willis, Bowman

12.  1993– 9.7 Lost NFC Title to Cowboys, Young, Watters, Rice, Taylor, Jones, McDonald, Stubblefield

13. 1985 – 8.8 Lost in playoffs to Giants, Montana, Craig, Tyler, Solomon, Clark, Francis, Lott, Board, Hicks

14. 1983 – 8.7 Lost NFC Title to Redskins, Montana, Craig, Tyler, Clark, Solomon, Francis, Lott, Board, Dean

15. 2011 – 8.3 Lost NFC Title to Giants, Smith, Gore, Staley, Crabtree, JSmith, Willis, Bowman, Rogers, Akers, Lee, Davis

16. 1996 – 8 Lost in playoffs to Packers, Young, Rice, Owens, Jones, Norton, McDonald, BY, Doleman,

17. 1965 – 7.1 Brodie, Willard, Crow, Johnson, Hazeltine, Wilcox

18. 1986 – 7 Lost in playoffs to Giants, Montana, Craig, Rathman, Rice, Clark, Francis, Griffin, Lott, Haley

19. 2001 – 6.8 Lost in playoffs to Packers, Garcia, Hearst, Owens, Plummer, Peterson, Carter, BY

20. 1970 – 6.5 Lost NFC Title to Cowboys, Brodie, Willard, Washington, Johnson, Wilcox

21. 1972 – 6.4 Lost in playoffs to Cowboys, Spurrier, Washington, Johnson, Wilcox

22. 1971 – 6.3 Lost NFC Title to Cowboys, Brodie, Willard, Washington, Johnson

23. 1981 – 6.2 World Champions beat Bengals, Montana, Solomon, Clark, Hicks, Lott, Reynolds, Turner

24. 1961 – 6.1 Brodie, Smith, Kilmer, Owens, Johnson, Nomellini, St Clair,

25. 1954 – 6 Tittle, Perry, Johnson, McElhenny, Wilson, Nomellini, St Clair, Shaw’s last year

26. 1990 – 5.8 Lost NFC Title to Giants, Montana, Craig, Rice, Jones, Taylor, Griffin, Haley, Lott, Millen

27. 1997 – 5.1 Lost NFC Title to Packers, Mariucci/coach, Young, Hearst, Owens, Stokes, Woodson, Norton

28. 1988 – 4.8 World Champions beat Bengals, Montana, Craig, Rathman, Rice, McIntyre, Lott, Haley

29. 1952 – 4.4 Tittle, Perry, McElhenny, Nomellini

30. 1951 – 4.3 Albert, Perry, Nomellini, Wilson

31. 1976 – 3.8 Plunkett, Williams, Washington, Johnson, Cross

32. 1959 – 3.2 Hickey/coach, Tittle, JD Smith, Perry, Owens, Wilson, Nomellini, St Clair

33. 2003 – 3.1 Garcia, Barlow, Owens, Peterson, Plummer, Smith, BY

34. 1966 – 1.8 Brodie, Willard, Crow, Johnson, Hazeltine

35. 1968 – 1.3  Brodie, Willard, Johnson, Hazeltine,

36. 2002 - .6 Garcia, Hearst, Owens, Stokes, BY, Peterson, Plummer,

37. 1962 –  .3 Brodie, Smith, Kilmer, Johnson, Nomellini, Hazeltine

38. 2009 – .1 Smith, Gore, Davis, Crabtree, Lee, Willis, Spikes, JSmith

39. 1957 –  -.2 Lost in playoffs to Lions, Tittle, McElhenny, Perry, Owens, Wilson, Nomellini, St Clair

40. 1973 –  -.2 Brodie/Spurrier, Washington, Wilcox

41. 1969 – -.3 Brodie, Willard, Washington,

42. 1960 –  -.9 Brodie/Tittle, Smith, McElhenny, Owens, Nomellini

43. 2014 -   -1 Kaepernick, Gore, Staley, Iupati, JSmith, Bethea

44. 1982 –  -2.6 Montana, Solomon, Clark, Lott, Dean, Hicks, Francis, Reynolds, Turner, Wright, Board

45. 1974 –  -2.6 Owen, Washington, Johnson, Wilcox

46. 1956 –  -2.7 Albert/coach, Tittle, McElhenny, Perry, Johnson, Wilson, Nomellini, St Clair, Hazeltine

47. 1964 -  -2.7 Brodie, Johnson, Woodson, Hazeltine, Wilcox

48. 2017-  -2.85 Garoppolo, Hyde, Staley, Buckner, Foster

49. 1967 –  -3 Brodie, Willard, Crow,

50. 2000 –  -3.8 Garcia, Garner, Owens, Rice, Plummer, Schulters, Tubbs, Norton, BY, Peterson,

51. 1977 –  -3.8 Plunkett, Williams, Washington, Cross, Wersching

52. 1958 –  -3.8 Tittle/Brodie, Perry, McElhenny, Wilson, Owens,

53. 1975 – -4.7  Spurrier/Snead, Williams, Washington, Johnson

54. 2008 –  -5.3 Hill/O’Sullivan, Gore, Bruce, Davis, Clements, Lee, Willis, Spikes, Smith, Nedney

55. 2015 -  -5.5 Gabbert, Boldin, Staley, Bowman

56. 2018-    -5.54  Mullens, Kittle, Staley, Buckner, Sherman

57. 2010 –  -5.8 Smith, Gore, Davis, Crabtree, Willis, Spikes, Clements, JSmith, Lawson, Staley

58. 1980 –  -6.2 DeBerg/Montana, Cooper, Clark, Solomon, Hicks

59. 1979 –  -7.4 Walsh-coach, Deberg, Hofer, OJ, Solomon, Cross

60. 1955 –  -8.2 Tittle, Perry, McElhenny, Wilson, St Clair, Hazeltine

61. 2006 –  -8.7 Smith, Gore, Smith, Lawson, BY,

62. 1978-  -9.1Deberg, OJ, Solomon, Cross,

63. 1950 –  -10.5 Albert, Perry, Strzykalski, Nomellini

64. 2005 –  -11.1 ASmith, Gore, Lee, DSmith, Peterson, BY

65. 1999 –  -11.3 Garcia, Garner, Rice, Owens, Norton, McDonald, BY, Tubbs, Woodall, Haley, Brown,

66. 1963 –  -11.8 McHan, Smith, Johnson, Woodson, St Clair,

67. 2016 -   -11.21 Kaepernick, Hyde, Staley, Buckner, Bethea, Reid

68. 2007 –  -11.9 Dilfer/Smith, Gore, Davis, Lee, Willis, Smith, Clements, BY,

69. 2004 –  -13.6 Rattay, Barlow, Lee, BY, Smith, Parrish, Peterson, Plummer,

The Weekly Tendown March 27-April 2 2011

Dear Internet:

Here's Tendown 70.

During my week between quarters, I went with my Lady Type Friend on our third anniversary to see Kathy Griffin in concert.

1. Kathy Griffin!
She has weaknesses; she doesn't craft bits particularly well, largely the laughs come from teasing revelatory celebrity gossip; she's neither particularly insightful nor artful.

That said - I'm a good sized fan, what she has crafted is a tv persona where it feels like something is happening when she's on the air; and I can't offhand think of anyone else in 2011 who feels like that.  Television that anesthetizes makes me sad.  And I enjoy her vibe; a year ago I saw Seinfeld; I bow to few men in their enjoyment of Jerry Seinfeld - his set was certainly better crafted - but, here's an example - Seinfeld's pre-show music was Sinatra; I think he came out (actually, Larry Miller, who was his opener) to My Way.

Kathy Griffin's pre-show music was Katy Perry, Rihanna, and Money Can't Buy You Class.  And the Countess is way more my vibe than The Chairman of the Board.

She also did two full hours, which is a lot of jokes about Dionne Warwick's crack habit.  

Louis CK is exponentially funnier, but I'm not sure I enjoy too many comedians more than Kathy Griffin.  She seems like good people.

2. There's No Good Reason Not to See Best Worst Movie

I watched two good documentaries this week; Client 9 about Eliot Spitzer (I did not know that Ashley Dupre, who got a ton of mainstream run for being Spitzer's girl, actually only saw him once) and Best Worst Movie, about the cult phenomenon surrounding the late 80s film Troll 2.

If you haven't seen Best Worst Movie, you almost certainly should, even though as a film, it's just okay.

Either you are really familiar with the Troll 2 thing, in which case, seeing the actors today and watching how each engages with their twenty year old film emerging as a cult hit is interesting.

Or (like me) you missed this entire story - and if so, you really should watch the documentary, as you'll wonder how you missed out.

I also watched a rerun of How I Met Your Mother this week, which included a character from Ohio making a reference to Big Chuck and Little John.  Here's why I like HIMYM - they didn't explain the joke.  The percentage of their audience who have any idea what the reference meant is supersmall - but not only did they tell the joke, they told it just for that percentage.  That's insightful about HIMYM; more than most sitcoms, it will make references to previous episodes, have long running really inside jokes - and rarely feel the need to explain.  Presumably, that discourages new viewers, and I also like that - a show that isn't a monster hit intentionally leaving a little bit of money on the table for the benefit of their longstanding fans.

And I watched graps.  Here's the 4 star wrestling matches I saw this week.  All from January.

Yamato v. Yoshino 4 1/2 (DGUSA)
Devitt v.Ibushi 4 1/2 (NJ)
Sekimoto v. Hidaka 4 1/4 (Zero1)
Kaz v. Minoru Tanaka 4 1/4 (AJ)
Yoshino/Pac v. CIMA/DKid 4 (DGUSA)
Yoshino/Pac v. Ricochet/Doi 4 (DGUSA)
Low Ki v. Davey 4 1/4 (PWG)
Claudio v. Generico 4 (PWG)
Ibushi/Omega v. Devitt/Taguchi 4 (CMLL)
Go v. Nakamura 4 (NJ)

My 2011 match of the year post is here.

3. Count Two
An interesting aspect of Client 9 was the distinction between Spitzer (who had to resign in disgrace) and Republican Senator David Vitter, who built a career on conservative Christian moralizing, got caught patronizing prostitutes, and still - right now - is in the US Senate.

The difference is the justice department got involved in Spitzer's case and left Vitter alone.

The US government engages in selective prosecution; as seen this week in San Francisco.

The best analysis of the status of The People of the United States v. A Baseball Player Who Hit Too Many Home Runs is here.:


Steve Hoskins and Dr. Arthur Ting failed as witnesses for the prosecution
Though he initially seemed to possess intimate knowledge of Bonds' personal and professional life and though he portrayed Bonds as keenly interested in steroids, Steve Hoskins proved highly vulnerable under cross-examination, particularly in regards to his credibility and motivations. His rationale for secretly taping a conversation with Anderson drew intense fire, as Hoskins made the recording after Bonds had largely terminated his business relationship with him. Jurors will likely have doubts about relying on comments by Steve Hoskins to convict Bonds.


Ting proved to be the worst witness for the government, by far. For at least three reasons, Ting seemed more like a witness for the defense than for the prosecution: he emphasized that he never spoke with Bonds about steroids; he highlighted non-steroid explanations for possible changes in Bonds' body; and he adamantly denied testimony by fellow prosecution witness Steve Hoskins, who had claimed that he and Ting discussed steroids. By the end of his testimony, Ting probably left jurors with serious doubts about the government's case against Bonds and about prosecutors' wisdom in calling him to the stand.

Bonds's biggest problem is probably not with what you think the trial is about - you think the trial is about Barry lying about taking steroids; the government was not able to produce a single witness to say he saw Barry Bonds take steroids.  Not one.  The government brought other people to the stand who took steroids.  The government presented evidence that Barry acted like someone who took steroids.  But with not a single person saying "I saw this happen" it's hard to get a conviction (one assumes).  And that doesn't even get to the issues of (1) what Barry believed a "steroid" to be at the time he said he hadn't taken them; or (2) if he could have forgotten the act of taking them - perjury isn't being wrong, not even being really, really, really dumbly wrong - it's about knowingly telling an untruth (and having the federal government not give you the chance to amend the record following your testimony, a not uncommon practice when they aren't just looking for a way to get you for perjury; and then spent 6 years and fifty million dollars trying to put you in jail when the head of Balco himself only did 4 months.).

Barry's biggest problem is count 2.  Once again - here's the piece.


Kathy Hoskins, the former personal shopper of Bonds and the sister of Steve Hoskins, carefully explained how she watched Anderson inject Bonds in the navel during the 2002 season. She came across as believable, normal and someone with whom jurors could likely identify. Her memory also appeared strong, especially when she recalled specific comments purportedly made by Bonds. While defense attorneys tried to link her with Steve Hoskins, whose business relationship with Bonds soured and who struggled on the stand earlier in the week, Kathy Hoskins emerged from cross examination as credible and without apparent ill-motive.


If the jury believes Kathy Hoskins with absolute certainty, it would be poised to find Bonds guilty on Count Two of the government's indictment. As explained in our previous coverage, Count Two simply requires prosecutors to prove that Bonds was injected by Anderson and that Bonds knowingly lied in 2003 when stating, under oath, that no such injection ever took place.

Because Barry didn't just say he never took steroids - he also said Greg Anderson never injected him at all; and even then - even then - the government couldn't produce a single witness to say otherwise - until they did, who said she saw it happen one time.

One isn't many times.  Possible to forget that one time.  But hard to establish that without taking the stand, and obviously Bonds won't be doing that.

Count 2 is a concern.

4. Until You Hit Your Monthly Limit..


If you're still under 20 articles this month, you can read Krugman. Important to understand the essential Republican plan to juice the economy.  He's quoting here directly - directly from a report two weeks ago from Republican congressmen.

"A smaller government work force increases the available supply of educated, skilled workers for private firms, thus lowering labor costs.”


Dropping the euphemisms, what this says is that by increasing unemployment, particularly of “educated, skilled workers” — in case you’re wondering, that mainly means schoolteachers — we can drive down wages, which would encourage hiring.


Krugman's piece discusses why this doesn't work - and that's fine - but take a moment to consider what it is they are actually saying.

Let's fire government workers.  So they have to go out and get corporate jobs.
And corporations won't have to pay them that much because of the glut of people looking for jobs.

That's Republican economics.  Get as many workers as possible to fight over a few jobs so business can maximize profit.  It's why they don't like unions.  Or the minimum wage.  Or, apparently, child labor laws.

(Seriously, they're going after child labor laws, take a look at the link)

Or social security, of course. Or universal health care.

They want us, you and me, to have as little protection as possible - as little security as possible.  If children can work for below the minimum wage - that's a job that doesn't need to go to an adult.  If we can keep your health care tied to your job - that means you'll never rock the boat at work.  Keep people on a subsistence edge, deep in debt, living paycheck to paycheck, and they just won't have the time to recognize it's bankers and not immigrants who are taking their money.

As long as there are sweatshops on the planet - American corporations will seek to lower labor costs - and as long as you have a day off, as long as you're making a wage upon which you can live - as long as you are living long enough to collect Social Security - there's still a way to lower your cost to your employer and the Republicans will look to make that way possible.  GE made 14 billion in profit in 2010 and is asking its employees for wage concessions.

  You do not matter; only the corporation matters; and the Republicans will teach you to love it.  Teach you that anything else is socialism and that has been proven not to work.  Teach you that anything else is anti-American.   And if you can't unlearn what you know about the world - if you can't unlearn that the Progressive Era was a good thing, that the New Deal was a good thing, that Civil rights was a progressive movement that fought against the right wing, that the Great Society lowered poverty to a level unseen before or since - if you can't unlearn that the left (as opposed to the Democrats) has been on the side of both justice and practicality for the balance of US history -

Then maybe your kids will.

5. Meanwhile, in Florida
I tried for a couple of weeks to recount the goings on down in Florida, where I live, and which now has a state government completely controlled by tea party Republicans.

But literally ever day came a story crazier than the previous - all welfare recipients required to take random drug tests they pay for themselves, perhaps through the governor's private drug testing company; privatizing all of the prisons in Miami; ending tenure for college professors.  Every day, a little more bananas fall from the trees in Tallahassee.

If you live down here, or want to know why I'd move were I able, here you go.

6. Who Has the Most Liberal Fans In the Majors?


Your World Champion San Francisco Giants. 


The most conservative?  Texas.

You're welcome.  Glad to do my part.

I don't know if this is why a Giants fan got nearly beaten to death at Dodger Stadium.

7. Did You Miss Any of My Stuff?
I wrote every day this week.

March Athlete of the Month
The 10 Best Players in Baseball History
My Baseball Predictions.
My Wrestlemania preview.
Counterfactual Wrestlemania 26.

Could be something there works for you.

8. Remember - The Right Wing Does Not Believe in Small Government.
Maddow hit a favorite Tendown theme this week. 

9. The Dumbass Thing Newt Gingrich Said This Week

Is there even a way to get to a reasonable thought here? 

"I have two grandchildren -- Maggie is 11, Robert is 9," Gingrich said at a church in Texas, according to Politico. "I am convinced that if we do not decisively win the struggle over the nature of America, by the time they're my age they will be in a secular atheist country, potentially one dominated by radical Islamists and with no understanding of what it once meant to be an American."

10. The Strangest Thing I Saw This Week.

Vin Scully and the Honky Tonk Man.  They are both cool, cocky, and bad.

That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time.  If there is a next time...

Your pal,

Jim