2013 Oscar Predictions

If you've followed my investment advice over the past several years, more likely than not I've made you some money.

You're welcome.

If you've followed my investment advice on the last two major opportunities, the BCS game and the Super Bowl, more likely than not I've lost you some money.

My apologies.

I teach entirely online now; one of my duties is giving fairly long webinar presentations - something that I'll do to reward students who stay with me for the duration is give away some quiz answers, but you have to stick it out.

At the end of my mistaken Super Bowl prediction was a little bonus.

I gave you Argo, then even money, to win Best Picture.  I was really confident in that advice.

Argo is now -800.

You're welcome.

Here is the balance of my selections.

Picture - Argo
-Too late now to make this investment, so you should stay away.  I've seen four of the nine nominated films, Argo would be my choice - curiously, given the lack of nomination - I'd suggest the direction is the best thing about the movie.  Moonrise Kingdom, is, I think, my favorite film of the year.

Director - David O Russell   (+2000)
-Affleck's lack of nomination makes this an action category headed into the awards.  Spielberg's favored, but  Lincoln's factual inaccuracies have been the dominant Oscar story since the torture propaganda in Zero Dark Thirty made its way out of the news cycle.  Other than Zeitlin, anyone could win this - why I'm picking Russell is enormous value, he's +2000.  That means he's not likely to win, and he's not - voters who backed away from Spielberg may go to Lee or Haneke - but I don't see a good way to distinguish between them (Lee's highly regarded but has been rewarded, Amour is maybe making a late charge) but there is a Russell path (he's made good movies, he's never won, and Silver Linings is maybe a "one of these things is not like the other" favorite for those with war movie fatigue.  Gun to my head, I don't pick Russell (I probably take Lee)- but at +2000 in a category where there is no prohibitive favorite, where the presumptive winner's movie is taking on water - that is an investment worth making.  Russell wasn't nominated for a DGA - and winning in that circumstance hasn't happened in more than six decades, meaning when Nate Silver's model comes out, Russell won't be the selection.  But for value - you have to do it.

Actor - DDL 
-There's no opportunity here.  Daniel Day Lewis wins his third Best Actor Oscar.

Actress - Emmanuel Riva (+250)
-I wasn't going to write this piece until I saw that Riva was still +250.  Do that.  That's my best advice.  Lawrence has been the presumptive winner, and she's fine - but there's a Taylor Swift element here (why does Taylor Swift, with only marginal talent, open the Grammys - why will her album get a bunch of nominations next year - because she moves units and units don't get moved anymore.  She's Singing John Cena. If John Cena cuts a rhyming promo on the Rock next Monday which vaguely alludes to never getting back together with Kendra Lust (“like, ever”) you heard it here first There would be a desire to crown Lawrence and she's still favored - but Amour is the late mover, and if you can get hundred year old Riva +the points, you do that.

Supp Actor - Robert DeNiro (+1000)
-Robert DeNiro hasn't won an Oscar since Raging Bull.  He was the best thing (to my eyes) about Silver Linings Playbook, a highly regarded film that got acting nominations in all four categories, but, in this forecast, isn't going to win the award it was thought to receive.  There isn't a real favorite in this category.  And DeNiro's been campaigning.

To me, that's a hell of an investment.  Alan Arkin can't win; I don't think there's real enthusiasm to award either The Master or Django - that leaves Tommy Lee, who is the favorite.

But +1000.  +1000?  For DeNiro - who hasn't won an Oscar in more than 30 years?

Yeah, that sounds good to me

Supp Actress - Anne Hathaway 
- no chance she loses, no investment


And the rest...
Original - Michael Haneke
Adapted - Chris Terrio
Animated - Wreck it Ralph
Foreign - Amour
Doc - Searching for Sugar Man
Score - Life of Pi
Song - Adele
Edit - Argo
Cinema - Life of Pi
Design - Anna Karenina
Costume - Anna Karenina
Makeup - Hobbit
Sound Mixing - Les Mis
Sound Edit - Zero Dark Thirty
Visual - Life of Pi
Makeup - Les Mis
Live Action Short - Curfew
Animated Short - Paperman
Doc Short - Open Heart

The Occasional Tendown: February 17 2013

Dear Internet:

Senator - you were told to carry the plutocrats' water, not drink it.

Tendown 150 is here. This is Tendown 151.

1. But I'm Not Bitter


That's 4th and goal.  No call.



That's the kickoff return for a touchdown.  No call.

Look, you can't fall behind three touchdowns in a game where the biggest comeback in almost half a century is just ten points and expect to win.  Fundamentally, Justin Smith's injury just didn't allow for the level of point of attack dominance that our defense (particularly the secondary) relied on all year.  We couldn't stop the Patriots, the Seahawks or the Falcons - this game fell into that line of play.

But these no calls did happen.  And while, I guess the 4th down play, given where we were in the game, is a defensible no call (not for me, I think it's a bad no call - and I think the public would as well had the announcers lined up on my side - plays are framed instantly in the mind of the public by announcers) that kick return no call is just wrong.  These are bad calls that determined the outcome of the game to a degree only matched in Super Bowl history by that Seattle/Pittsburgh game.  Local writers chose not to pursue that angle of discussing the game, largely, I'd guess, for fear of being called homers.  Bad calls are bad calls, even when they go against your club.

Frustrating.

I've done all my required football posting since the game.  Here are the ten best teams not to make the Super Bowl (the '87 Niners are 10th); here is my ranking of every starting quarterback performance in Super Bowl history (Flacco's 10th, Kaepernick's 50th) and I revised every NFL team's all time 45 man roster (here is the all time Niners roster; Justin Smith replacing Dana Stubblefield is the only real change; on the list of the 25 greatest Niners ever, Patrick Willis is now 17th, Frank Gore is now 22nd).

2. The Piece You Should Read This Week
Also sports - it's Michael Jordan turning 50.

If you're into some long form sports pieces - you can read this about Nigel McGuinness, one of the best wrestlers in the world from the last ten years.  The current best 100 wrestlers in the world list is here.  I have a ton of 2013 wrestling waiting to be watched, but since last we spoke, the only 4 star match I've seen is Minoru Tanaka/Koji Kanemoto v. Kaz Hayashi/Kondo from January in All Japan.

3. The Sprinter With No Feet Killed His Model Girlfriend

Which is probably something you want to remember the next time the sports media industrial complex decides to tell you which athletes are the good guys and which are the bad guys.

The current state of the case involves a bloody cricket bat.

On a totally unrelated note, I can't imagine why I'd connect these two cases, Ray Lewis says you know he doesn't bear any responsibility about his past criminal incident, because his imaginary friend says so.

4. A Grantland tournament.
Best Chappelle sketch ever.

5. Meanwhile, in Florida...
Dude tried to use a taco as his ID.

6. Why Are You People Doing This to Me?

I ask very little of you.

The funniest show on television is Happy Endings.  Which ABC is going to burn off.

You aren't watching it.

I lost 30 Rock and presumably Parks and Community too.

Watch Happy Endings.  It's funny.

7. Spied on at Work
Nothing really new here, but there aren't too many things that get me more exorcised than unchecked employer power.

Currently about 75 percent of employees at American companies are subjected to regular surveillance at the workplace, while employees who use the Internet at work stand a 33 percent chance of being exposed to constant surveillance. Even employees who engage in hard, unrewarding manual labor, such as hotel housekeeping, are subject to electronic scrutiny and performance monitoring. During a recent hotel stay, one of us was puzzled that the housekeeping person assigned to his room was visibly upset when he told her she didn’t need to clean the room. She knocked on the door once more and asked if she could use the phone. As she picked up the receiver, she explained that she had to enter her code into the room’s phone so management would give her credit for making up that room. The telephone surveillance system was gathering metrics about the number of rooms cleaned, how fast they were cleaned, and which worker was doing the cleaning. If guests complained, blame would be easy to assign. Likewise, it’s not difficult to imagine that these data were being used to discipline—or “motivate”—workers who cleaned too slowly. Some hotels even track their housekeeping staff’s productivity with a cell phone app that measures movement and speed at all times. If workers stand still or sit down for even a few seconds, management knows.

8. The Obama DOJ memo

Important that the left doesn't stay silent about civil liberties violations, even when they come from an Administration that it voted for.

The core distortion of the War on Terror under both Bush and Obama is the Orwellian practice of equating government accusations of terrorism with proof of guilt. One constantly hears US government defenders referring to "terrorists" when what they actually mean is: those accused by the government of terrorism. This entire memo is grounded in this deceit.

Time and again, it emphasizes that the authorized assassinations are carried out "against a senior operational leader of al-Qaida or its associated forces who poses an imminent threat of violent attack against the United States." Undoubtedly fearing that this document would one day be public, Obama lawyers made certain to incorporate this deceit into the title itself: "Lawfulness of a Lethal Operation Directed Against a US Citizen Who is a Senior Operational Leader of al-Qaida or An Associated Force."

This ensures that huge numbers of citizens - those who spend little time thinking about such things and/or authoritarians who assume all government claims are true - will instinctively justify what is being done here on the ground that we must kill the Terrorists or joining al-Qaida means you should be killed. That's the "reasoning" process that has driven the War on Terror since it commenced: if the US government simply asserts without evidence or trial that someone is a terrorist, then they are assumed to be, and they can then be punished as such - with indefinite imprisonment or death.

But of course, when this memo refers to "a Senior Operational Leader of al-Qaida", what it actually means is this: someone whom the President - in total secrecy and with no due process - has accused of being that. Indeed, the memo itself makes this clear, as it baldly states that presidential assassinations are justified when "an informed, high-level official of the US government has determined that the targeted individual poses an imminent threat of violent attack against the US".

This is the crucial point: the memo isn't justifying the due-process-free execution of senior al-Qaida leaders who pose an imminent threat to the US. It is justifying the due-process-free execution of people secretly accused by the president and his underlings, with no due process, of being that. The distinction between (a) government accusations and (b) proof of guilt is central to every free society, by definition, yet this memo - and those who defend Obama's assassination power - willfully ignore it.

Those who justify all of this by arguing that Obama can and should kill al-Qaida leaders who are trying to kill Americans are engaged in supreme question-begging. Without any due process, transparency or oversight, there is no way to know who is a "senior al-Qaida leader" and who is posing an "imminent threat" to Americans. All that can be known is who Obama, in total secrecy, accuses of this.

9. RIP

Ronald Dworkin.

10. Pitchers and Catchers Report

It begins.

That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time.  If there is a next time...

Your pal,

Jim

10 Best Teams Not to Make the Super Bowl

Ranked by Simple Rating System, these are the best teams in the Super Bowl era not to play in the Super Bowl. Updated through SB 52.

1.  '10 Pats 15.4 lost to Jets

2.  '76 Steelers 15.3 lost AFC Title to Raiders

3.  '70 Vikes 15.0 lost to Niners

4.  '98 Vikes 14.8 lost NFC Title to Falcons

5.  '68 Raiders 14.3 lost to Jets in AFC Title

6.   '68 Chiefs 14.0 lost to Raiders

7.   '70 Lions 14.0 lost to Cowboys

8.   '68 Cowboys 13.8 lost to Browns

9.   '67 Rams 13.6 lost to Pack 

10. '87 Niners 13.5 lost to Vikes

Holding. Return Team. 10 yards from the spot of the foul.

The 100 Best Wrestlers in the World - 2013 ed.

Every two years I put together a list of the hundred best wrestlers in the world.   This is that.  

1.       Daniel Bryan (WWE)

2.       Kota Ibushi (DDT)

3.       Kenta (NOAH)

4.       Katsuhiko Nakajima (KOffice)

5.       El Generico (WWE)

6.       Prince Devitt (NJPW)

7.       Davey Richards (ROH)

8.       Takashi Sugiura (NOAH)

9.       Naomichi Marufuji (NOAH)

10.   Shinsuke Nakamura (NJPW)

11.   Shingo Takagi (DGate)

12.   Kotaro Suzuki (AJPW)

13.   Hiroshi Tanahashi (NJPW)

14.   Go Shiozaki (AJPW)

15.   Suwama (AJPW)

16.   Takeshi Morishima (NOAH)

17.   Tetsuya Naito (NJPW)

18.   Kazuchika Okada (NJPW)

19.   Masato Yoshino (DGate)

20.   Daisuke Sekimoto (BJ)

21.   Low Ki (NJPW)

22.   Austin Aries (TNA)

23.   Kenny Omega (DDT)

24.   PAC (WWE)

25.   Kaz Hayashi (AJPW)

26.   CIMA (DGate)

27.   AJ Styles (TNA)

28.   CM Punk (WWE)

29.   Kassius Ohno (WWE)

30.   Kevin Steen (ROH)

31.   Akira Tozawa (DGate)

32.   Atsushi Aoki (AJPW)

33.   Alex Shelley (NJPW)

34.   Yuji Nagata (NJPW)

35.   Jun Akiyama (AJPW)

36.   Naruki Doi (DGate)

37.   Hiroki Goto (NJPW)

38.   Seth Rollins (WWE) 

39.   Ricochet (Evolve/DGUSA)

40.   Michael Elgin (ROH)

41.   Masaaki Mochizuki (DGate)

42.   Antonio Cesaro (WWE)

43.   Eddie Edwards (ROH)

44.   Roderick Strong (PWG)

45.   Samoa Joe (TNA)

46.   Kurt Angle (TNA)

47.   Dragon Kid (DGate)

48.   Ryusuke Taguchi (NJPW)

49.   Masato Tanaka (NJPW)

50.   Koji Kanemoto (NJPW)

51.   Rey Mysterio (WWE)

52.   Togi Makabe (NJPW)

53.   BxB Hulk (DGate)

54.   Hayato Jr. Fujita (Mich Pro)

55.   Dolph Ziggler (WWE)

56.   Taiji Ishimori (NOAH)

57.   Zack Sabre, Jr. (IPW-UK)

58.   Adam Cole (PWG)

59.   Shuji Kondo (AJPW)

60.   Kento Miyahara (KOffice)

61.   Ryo Saito (DGate)

62.   Yuji Hino (KDojo)

63.   La Sombra (CMLL)

64.   Mascara Dorada (CMLL)

65.   Samuray del Sol (Evolve/DGUSA)

66.   Kudo (DDT)

67.   Matt Jackson (PWG)

68.   Nick Jackson (PWG)

69.   Christian (WWE)

70.   Minoru Tanaka (AJPW)

71.   Kyle O’Reilly (ROH)

72.   Yuji Okabayashi (BJ)

73.   Ultimo Guerrero (CMLL)

74.   Yoshinobu Kanemaru (AJPW)

75.   Yujiro Kushida (NJPW)

76.   Susumu Yokosuka (DGate)

77.   Kagetora (DGate)

78.   Minoru Suzuki (NJPW)

79.   Yoshihito Sasaki (BJ)

80.   Eddie Kingston (Chikara)

81.   Sheamus (WWE)

82.   Hiroshi Yamato (AJPW)

83.   Dean Ambrose (WWE)

84.   Karl Anderson (NJPW)

85.   Jay Briscoe (ROH)

86.   Mark Briscoe (ROH)

87.   Sami Callihan (Evolve/DGUSA)

88.   Johnny Gargano (Evolve/DGUSA)

89.   AR Fox (Evolve/DGUSA)

90.   Dr. Wagner, Jr. (AAA)

91.   Manabu Soya (AJPW)

92.   Hikaru Sato (DDT)

93.   Chuck Taylor (Evolve/DGUSA)

94.   Mike Quackenbush (Chikara)

95.   Jigsaw (Chikara)

96.   Genki Horiguchi (DGate)

97.   Hallowicked (Chikara)

98.   Tyson Kidd (WWE)

99.   Jack Evans (AAA)

100.                        Chris Daniels (TNA)