The culmination of the greatest postseason stretch in NFL history SUPER BOWL 24
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Every 49ers Offensive Play in Super Bowl History-Super Bowl 24
Saturday, January 19, 2013
My 2013 NBA All Star Rosters
Friday, January 18, 2013
I utilize Hollinger's numbers and Win Shares to compose the rosters - these are the best players in the NBA for the first half of the 2012-13 season.
East
C T Chandler
F L James
F C Anthony
G D Wade
G K Irving
C B Lopez
F C Bosh
F P Pierce
F D West
F P George
G D Williams
G J Calderon
Were there an injury, the top alternate is A Horford.
Garnett/Rondo won the fan vote, so they're both on the team - I'd take off West/Calderon and make the rest my reserve list.
West
C A Jefferson
F K Durant MVP
F T Duncan
G K Bryant
G C Paul
G J Harden
G R Westbrook
G T Parker
F B Griffin
F D Lee
C D Howard
C M Gasol
Were there an injury, the top alternates are Z Randolph and my guy SCurry.
2013 Conference Championship Predictions
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
I'm picking favorites, so just move on.
One place you could go would be here. Just a year ago I did a comprehensive review of each of the NFC Championship games in 49ers history. If you missed it, consider going back and taking a look.
If you want to keep reading; the chalk is thick this week - New England's favored by 9; here's why:
The three metrics I use throughout the year are from Football Outsiders, Pro-Football Reference, and Bryan Burke. Evaluating the two team's offenses:
New England: FO: 1st, BB: 1st, PF-R 12.2
Baltimore: FO: 17th, BB: 13th, PF-R 1.9
Evaluating the defenses:
New England: FO: 15th, BB: 29th, PF-R .5
Baltimore: FO: 16th, BB: 19th, PF-R 1.0
The Patriots have an historically great offense, Baltimore's is middling.
The Patriots have a middling to bad defense, Baltimore's is also middling. This isn't a matter of a great Ravens defense meeting a great Patriots offense, as has been the case in previous big game meetings between these two teams. Baltimore's just okay; they're a run of the mill football team. That doesn't mean it's impossible for them to win this game or even the one after that; last year's Giants team profiled similarly.
But you wouldn't pick Baltimore.
Against the spread? So, I went 2-1 in the divisional round after not picking a game against the spread in the wild card round. I'm solidly in the black for NFL games this season. It's a no play unless the number gets to 10 (which it might, stay tuned). If you can get ten, then you can invest in the Ravens. This profiles as an 8 point game; there's not going to be much daylight, but if you can get the public to bet it up to ten, taking Baltimore makes sense.
It just feels like too much to say, after the Giants winning the World Series for the second time in three years, that the 49ers, 18 years after the last time, are headed to the Super Bowl.
But that's what I said coming into the playoffs, and now they are, in what I think is probably an unprecedented number, favored by 5 points on the road against the top seeded Falcons.
Offenses:
Niners: FO: 5th, BB: 3rd, PFR: 3.5
Atlanta: FO: 12th, BB 13th, PFR: 2.0
Defenses:
Niners: FO: 2nd, BB: 3rd, PFR 6.7
Atlanta: FO: 12th, BB: 18th, PFR 4.5
That means the Niners are better, both offensively and defensively, by every metric.
If you were looking to invest in San Francisco, the worst thing that happened to you was that Seattle comeback, because now, what the public has seen is a catalyzing performance by Colin Kaepernick and a near collapse by the Falcons, and they've bet the Niners up accordingly, to the point where you just cannot invest in them. I cannot believe that number is 5. It's a totally unknown, unproven quarterback going on the road against the top seeds in the conference and the Niners are giving 5.
It's a no play; if you wanted to invest in Atlanta that's good decision making - I don't think it works out, to be honest, I think we beat them going away, I'm right there with the squares thinking the Niners are going to roll Atlanta - but as an investment strategy, when you see the public just running away with a game, moving the line from 3 to 5 in two days under a clear confirmation bias, you'd make sense to invest the other way.
So - I'm not picking anything ATS, unless the Patriots game gets to 10, and then I'm taking the points. If the Niner game was still a FG, I'd give the points, but other than that I'm completely out.
And straight up - favorites. Niners v. Patriots, two worlds collide, rival nations.
Baseball From A-Z
Monday, January 14, 2013
MLB Network did a countdown of the best baseball player ever for each letter of the alphabet.
And I can't resist. So, what you see here would be my list, plus the runner-up for each letter. Where MLB chose someone different, I placed that in parenthesis.
A-Aaron, not hard, runner up is Pete Alexander
B-Bonds, even easier, runner up is Johnny Bench
C-Cobb, tough, the Rocket would be a fair selection
D-DiMaggio, Ed Delahanty's the runner-up.
E-Edmonds (MLB picked Eckersley, but he wouldn't be my runner-up, that would be Buck Ewing)
F-Foxx ( MLB picked Feller, that's a bad pick, but he'd be my runner-up )
G-Gehrig (Lefty Grove's my runner-up)
H-Hornsby (Rickey would also be defensible)
I- Monte Irvin (MLB picked Raul Ibanez, which is an...interesting selection; it's a mediocre lot, my runner-up might be Brandon Inge)
J-Walter Johnson (easy pick, Randy is next)
K-Kaline (MLB took Koufax, which is error, Killebrew would be my runner-up)
L-Lajoie (easy pick, Larkin's my runner-up)
M-Mays (easy pick despite how great Musial was)
N-Nichols (I missed this pick, I assume they picked Phil Niekro, that's reasonable and he'd be my runner-up)
O-Ott (There isn't an O anywhere near Mel Ott; Jim O'Rourke is my runner-up)
P-Pujols(MLB took Satchel Paige, which is unsupportable. Gaylord Perry's my runner-up)
Q-Jack Quinn(MLB took Quisenberry, 'cause they don't know who Jack Quinn was)
R-Ruth (Frank Robinson's the runner-up)
S-Schmidt (just ahead of Seaver)
T-Frank Thomas (easy, Thome's next)
U-Utley (by a little bit over George Uhle)
V-Vaughan(MLB took Omar Vizquel? Can we take a moment? In 7700 PA Vaughan had 70 WAR by B-Ref; Vizquel in 12000 PA had 40.I must have misunderstood the purpose of this list)
W-Wagner(MLB took Ted Williams, which I get)
X-(MLB took David Ortiz. Dopey)
Y-Young (obviously)
Z- Ryan Zimmerman(MLB took Zito, and that's reasonable and maybe even the better pick, but won't be in two years)
My Last, at Least For This Year, Thought About the Hall of Fame.
Friday, January 11, 2013
I feel like I'll never get to stop writing about steroids.
Here's the thing I haven't yet seen raised.
For the writers who are claiming to be strict constructionists on
the character clause (hey, they say, it doesn't matter that it's never, ever
been used before to keep someone out before steroids...
"I didn't get to vote against the gamblers or Klansmen or those who supported and defended segregation"
...which to use Costas's language, created numbers much, much, much less reliable than any drug ever taken...
... and the character clause certainly has
never been used to put someone in, no one says that JT Snow couldn't get on
base but he was a helluva guy so let's get him in because of the character
clause but forget all of that because...
"what matters is the plain language of the
guidelines for voting; all I do is read that character clause and apply the law to the facts of these cases")
my question is...
"Do you believe there's a
difference between a first ballot hall of famer and the other hall of
famers?"
Because if they do - if they don't vote for Biggio this year
because he's not an inner circle guy and don't feel he's worthy of that special
vote - then the question is
"show me where in the rules is the language
allowing you to make that distinction."
Because it's not there. When it comes to doing that, they
don't care about the rules, they have their own sense, based on what previous
writers have done, about how they should distinguish among tiers of hall of
famers. The reason Willie Mays wasn't unanimous and the reason Greg
Maddux won't be either isn't because there's any language in the voting rules
allowing for those distinctions. Sportswriters ignore the language of the
rules and instead look to tradition. It's only when it comes to
this current generation of PED users that Susan Slusser suddenly becomes
Antonin Scalia.
They are entirely making this up; advanced metrics have made old
media baseball writers totally irrelevant, and their inability to think
critically has made the Hall of Fame irrelevant.
This is from the September 11, 1985 edition of
the New York Times:
Asked by the defense lawyer whether he had used the amphetamine pills, known
among players as ''greenies,'' Berra at first said no, then later said yes. Q. Where did you get them?. A. From Bill Madlock. You could get them from Willie Stargell.
Q. So Willie Stargell gave you amphetamine pills? A. Yes. Q. When did Willie Stargell give you amphetamine pills?
A. When he was playing with us. It could be on any given day when I asked him for one. On days when I would ask him, yes.
That's Dale Berra testifying in federal court that Willie Stargell gave him speed.
Willie Stargell's in the Hall of Fame. If there was a national debate about his candidacy - if Willie Stargell was hauled in front of Congress to apologize to the parent of some kid who got crazy hopped up on speed and killed himself (or who couldn't stop singing "I'm so Excited") perhaps someone could find the youtube clip of that testimony.
John Milner testified that as a young Met, he took a liquid amphetamine, "red juice" from Willie Mays's locker. Dwight Gooden wrote in his autobiography that 10 Mets regularly took speed; David Wells wrote in his bio that players had "season long stockpiles" of speed; in Ball Four, Jim Bouton talked about players getting jars of 500 pills. Even sainted Hank Aaron admitted to using them "one time" in his autobiography. That's one more illegal drug use than Roger Clemens, the greatest pitcher of your lifetime, has admitted to.
Illegal drugs. Illegal performance enhancing drugs.
Here's what I want to see the next time there is a former athlete on television wearing his righteous pants - I want him to tell me every drug he's ever put in his body. All of them.
In fact, I want Tom Verducci to tell me the same thing.
Has he ever popped an adderall to crank out another finger wagging essay?
Did he take a bennie as an undergrad to finish a term paper? Because if he did - didn't he hurt the curve for some other student who wouldn't break the law? Isn't his career (like Arnold's and Sly's) aided by drug use at the expense of others? Where is the justice?
And more than that - I don't really want them all to have to say it on TV - I want them saying it under oath.
Asked by the defense lawyer whether he had used the amphetamine pills, known
among players as ''greenies,'' Berra at first said no, then later said yes. Q. Where did you get them?. A. From Bill Madlock. You could get them from Willie Stargell.
Q. So Willie Stargell gave you amphetamine pills? A. Yes. Q. When did Willie Stargell give you amphetamine pills?
A. When he was playing with us. It could be on any given day when I asked him for one. On days when I would ask him, yes.
That's Dale Berra testifying in federal court that Willie Stargell gave him speed.
Willie Stargell's in the Hall of Fame. If there was a national debate about his candidacy - if Willie Stargell was hauled in front of Congress to apologize to the parent of some kid who got crazy hopped up on speed and killed himself (or who couldn't stop singing "I'm so Excited") perhaps someone could find the youtube clip of that testimony.
John Milner testified that as a young Met, he took a liquid amphetamine, "red juice" from Willie Mays's locker. Dwight Gooden wrote in his autobiography that 10 Mets regularly took speed; David Wells wrote in his bio that players had "season long stockpiles" of speed; in Ball Four, Jim Bouton talked about players getting jars of 500 pills. Even sainted Hank Aaron admitted to using them "one time" in his autobiography. That's one more illegal drug use than Roger Clemens, the greatest pitcher of your lifetime, has admitted to.
Illegal drugs. Illegal performance enhancing drugs.
Here's what I want to see the next time there is a former athlete on television wearing his righteous pants - I want him to tell me every drug he's ever put in his body. All of them.
In fact, I want Tom Verducci to tell me the same thing.
Has he ever popped an adderall to crank out another finger wagging essay?
Did he take a bennie as an undergrad to finish a term paper? Because if he did - didn't he hurt the curve for some other student who wouldn't break the law? Isn't his career (like Arnold's and Sly's) aided by drug use at the expense of others? Where is the justice?
And more than that - I don't really want them all to have to say it on TV - I want them saying it under oath.
Because that's
the trap they set for Barry Bonds - let's bring every athlete and sportswriter
in front of a grand jury and ask them about any drug they've ever taken ever -
either they'll open up the windows to their lives or we got 'em. Let's ask
about teammates and co-workers. I want to see the bodies hit the floor. What
did you know and when did you know it?
I want everyone in the Hall of Fame, and every ex player now in
the media, to have to discuss how many drugs they took. Did you
take amphetamines? How many? Did you take painkillers? Did
they enhance your ability to perform?
I want every writer to reveal the drug use of every Hall of
Fame player he covered. Make them all go on the record. Cal Ripken played
in 2632 consecutive games somehow, breaking an unbreakable record of a New York Yankee considerably more noted than Roger Maris, and he played with Brady
Anderson, a man who he called his best friend.
In 1996, Brady Anderson hit 50 home runs and
slugged .637 in 579 ABs.
In the almost 6000 ABs he had before and after, he had a total of 150 additional home runs and he never slugged as high as .480 in any other season. In a 15 year big league career, over 20% of his career value, by WAR, came in 1996. Did Brady take illegal drugs but not give any to his best friend, Iron Man Cal? Did Cal aid and abet Brady Anderson's illegal drug use? Billy Ripken's on MLB network all of the time - what does he know about Brady Anderson?
In the almost 6000 ABs he had before and after, he had a total of 150 additional home runs and he never slugged as high as .480 in any other season. In a 15 year big league career, over 20% of his career value, by WAR, came in 1996. Did Brady take illegal drugs but not give any to his best friend, Iron Man Cal? Did Cal aid and abet Brady Anderson's illegal drug use? Billy Ripken's on MLB network all of the time - what does he know about Brady Anderson?
And what about Nolan Ryan?
When he was 42 years old, big, broad backed Nolan Ryan won 16 games with a 3.20 ERA,.
When he was 42 years old, big, broad backed Nolan Ryan won 16 games with a 3.20 ERA,.
At 43 years old, he won 13 with a 3.44 ERA,
and at 44 years old - the old man had an ERA under 3.00 and
a 12-6 record. Barry Bonds was long, long gone before he turned 44. Could Ranger executive Nolan Ryan have really maintained himself as a power pitcher so deeply into his 40s without the use of a little enhancement?
He did all of that in a hitters ballpark. Arlington. As a Texas Ranger.
He played with Palmeiro. And Sosa. And Kevin Brown. And Juan Gonzalez. And Pudge. And Ruben Sierra (ever looked at his career numbers?) And Brian Downing. And Kevin Reimer. What do we know about those guys?
And Jose Canseco. He got there in '92. Did Canseco bring the steroid culture from Oakland?
Or did he find one already flourishing in Texas?
Rickey Henderson, his body rippling with muscle, was a Bash Brother with Canseco and McGwire and he's sitting there in the Hall of Fame right now.
You want to rip off the band aid, indignant, righteous sports writers, then let's do it. Let's ask Jordan. Let's ask Tiger. Let's ask Ray Lewis.
If we get to speculate - if we get to just decide that Bonds and Clemens and Bagwell and Piazza, clear, no doubt, Hall of Famers took magic pills and these are the consequences - if we get to speculate - then dammit let's go. Let's get in some speculation.
What did you do and when did you do it?
He did all of that in a hitters ballpark. Arlington. As a Texas Ranger.
He played with Palmeiro. And Sosa. And Kevin Brown. And Juan Gonzalez. And Pudge. And Ruben Sierra (ever looked at his career numbers?) And Brian Downing. And Kevin Reimer. What do we know about those guys?
And Jose Canseco. He got there in '92. Did Canseco bring the steroid culture from Oakland?
Or did he find one already flourishing in Texas?
Rickey Henderson, his body rippling with muscle, was a Bash Brother with Canseco and McGwire and he's sitting there in the Hall of Fame right now.
You want to rip off the band aid, indignant, righteous sports writers, then let's do it. Let's ask Jordan. Let's ask Tiger. Let's ask Ray Lewis.
If we get to speculate - if we get to just decide that Bonds and Clemens and Bagwell and Piazza, clear, no doubt, Hall of Famers took magic pills and these are the consequences - if we get to speculate - then dammit let's go. Let's get in some speculation.
What did you do and when did you do it?
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