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Every Survivor Winner Ranked (S1-50)

Friday, December 21, 2012

Ranked through season 50, every Survivor winner, this is the last entrant in this list.


1. Tony S28/S40
2. Sandra S7/S20
3. Parvati S16
4. Boston Rob S22
5. Tyson S27
6 Richard Hatch S1
7. Kim Spradlin S24
8. Tom Westman S10
9. Yul S13
10.  Brian Heidik S5

11. Jeremy S31
12. Sarah S34
13. Todd Herzog S15
14. Earl S14
15. Chris Daugherty S9
16. Ethan Zohn S3
17. Aubry S50
18. Cochran S26
19. Nick S37
20. Wendell S36

21. JT S18
22. Dee S45
23. Kyle S48
24. Rachel S47
25. Savannah S49
26. Natalie S29
27. Adam S33
28. Denise S25
29. Ben S35
30. Sophie S23

31. Michelle S29
32. Tommy S39
33. Mike S30
34. Yam Yam S44
35. Maryanne S42
36. Tina Wesson S2
37. Aras S12
38. Jenna Morasca S6
39. Amber S8
40. Danni S11

41. Kenzie S46
42. Erika S41
43. Bob Crowley S17
44. Fabio S21
45. Vecepia S4
46. Chris S38
47. Natalie White S19
48. Gabler S43

Let's start at the bottom; the height (depth?) of which, for my dollar, was Natalie White - which is why I have her last.  Even if you're in the "no such thing as a bitter jury" camp, she just happened to be the one sitting next to a Hantz at the end.  Unlike, Natalie, I think I would have voted for Chris; he maximized his return to the game following a very...very long stay away from it.  But that's just a function of the competitors he was sitting next to - as a Survivor winner, his is a slender resume.  Gabler...look, we're in an era with shorter seasons, tons of trinkets - Gabler was in a season with a dominant player who got bounced and wound up the compromise selection in a middling lot.  

I think of Bob and Fabio (and to a lesser extent, Aras) and Maryanne (maybe Yam Yam too, and in this era of Survivor, the short game feels like less of a hill to climb) as similar, largely good natured, played a basically frictionless game - the other competitors liked them and likeability is their biggest (only?) strength.  Jenna and Amber (and Tina and Denise) rode coattails but all had a level of value to their games not found with those bottom five winners.  Michelle's somewhere in that group; her primary benefit was she wasn't seen as making the moves that took out the swing votes in the jury.  Ben was outflanked down the stretch, but used multiple idols and an unprecedented end game twist (a coup d'eBen?) to get the win.  It's only his being a good player throughout the game that keeps him from a lower slot.  

Twinnies Natalie's game was uneven, but she fought from underneath and made some big strategic decisions in the endgame. A good comp is Mike from the following year, he was clearly better, just physically dominating the endgame maybe in an unprecedented way, but also largely responsible for being positioned underneath in the first place, and the quality of his opposition, like Natalie's, was suspect. JT would be in the top 10 if not for a subsequent appearance on the show - giving Russell the idol was such a terrible move that this is as high as he could reasonably be ranked.  Ethan and Earl were both nice guys in the vein of Fabio/Bob, but added a second level of leadership.  Adam made a lot of moves; not all of them were effective, but his unanimous jury vote is testament to the ability to create a jury perception of punches that landed when maybe he was just being busy.  Nick made fewer moves, but was personable, strategic enough, and positioned himself well for the end game. Tommy won without the benefit of any twists and had a good handle on the general flow of the game. Erika was a good player; had a good handle on the strategic flow of the game, there was a dominant player, Ricard, he clearly played the best game in S41. Late period Survivor (short season, tons, just tons of twists) becomes super hard to envelop into this type of ranking; Dee was good, part of the decision making flow of the game, won competitions, didn't back her way into anything nor take over the game.  

Heidik/Todd/Daugherty all fill that sneaky/strategic role that bumps them up  I could see an argument that Earl/Ethan should be ranked ahead of Daugherty.  Cochran's game was less slippery, strategic in his second stint and more guy everyone really liked.  He was Ethan Zohn. Jeremy really falls into that phylum as well; he played a good all around game, never really lost control although wasn't as aware of everyone around him as others, but really relied on how much more people liked him, liked the moral force of him, than any particular strategic decision. Sarah played a rat floater game, made some good strategic moves, stayed in good with people when she needed to ge in good with them, was less in control of the game and more on the right side of where the game was being controlled.  And she was boring TV, that doesn't matter for these purposes, but it should be noted that she's a not particularly appealing television character. Wendell's tough to rate, he and Domenick together controlled the back half of the game like Tom Westman, but absent a twist introduced in Ben's season allowing for firemaking, he wouldn't have made the final 3. Savannah played a really good late period game, had a tight alliance, understood where the game was, nearly won out.  

Tony was messy; bold, impetuous, great TV and a really constant, tenacious player who benefited from the all time worst decision in show history (Woo's final 3 vote) and a jury that was better than Russell Hantz's.

Yul/Kim/Tom all dominated every phase of their season; were either Yul/Kim to return and get into another jury vote there's room to move up.  No one ever dominated like Rob in his final attempt; I'd see an argument anywhere in the top 4 for Rob.  Sandra won twice and while there was never a point really in either game that she dominated, the results alone require a top 4 finish. Her third appearance was the most fun of the the three and doesn't hurt her overall ranking.  Parvati did dominate in her second appearance, despite losing to Sandra - in a pretty deep field in season 20 she was the best player.  She's also the hottest Survivor winner, which probably is worth some mention.  Tyson moves into that group with his dominant win; he and Rob profile very similarly.  If Yul/Kim are similar, so are Rob/Tyson.

And finally, Hatch.  I think it's underappreciated how "making an alliance" wasn't inherently an obvious strategy when Survivor began - the Hatch template is basically still the method which reality competition contestants across the world still use (both in order to win and to make good TV). Survivor's harder in 2013 than it was in 2000; current competitors not only have all of the past Survivors to draw from but all the other reality competition programs that utilize similar group dynamics.  I'm amenable to a counter-argument that Hatch's game doesn't match, say the level of strategy of Rob's winning season.  

But in the end I remain really, really impressed with Hatch's forward thinking; for the same reason I'd still rank Dr. Will ahead of Dan Gheesling as the best BBUS player - I'll say Hatch, 30 seasons later, is still the greatest Survivor ever.  

So, Winners at War necessitated a rethink that might ripple for awhile.

I'm not sure exactly the weight the season should hold; Boston Rob in 2020 doesn't necessarily reflect peak Boston Rob, for example.  Survivor's not a sport - but Michael Jordan's Wizards performance doesn't reflect peak Michael Jordan and we all understand how that works.  

I've moved Tony to the top spot; S40 was a really, really impressive performance, to come in with nearly the target level that snuffed out Rob/Parv before the game even started and leave never having received even one vote against him - it's an all time great game and he shoots to the top.  I've dropped Hatch to 6; all the "he did it first" stuff still stands, but there needs, after 40 seasons, to be a stronger accounting given to the evolution of the game.  Jeremy gets bumped up, Sarah gets a sizeable bump and there's a reshuffling of some of the players further down the list.





NFL Picks December 23 2012

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Last week's picks are here. I'm 97-85-2.

Lions +4 Falcons loss
Panthers -8.5 Raiders win
Balt +2.5 NYG win

99-86-2


MLB Hall of 100 (through 2012)

Wednesday, December 19, 2012


I spend an unfortunate amount of time ranking athletes.  

So when ESPN created a Hall of 100, ranking the top 125 baseball players of all time, that just fed my monkey.

My starting point is here. That's a career value objective ranking of the top 200 baseball players ever by WAR (B-Ref+Davenport).  In the textual discussion that you could find as a link within that link you'll see a deeper dive into the career numbers where I offer some subjective thoughts and an all time subjective roster, but not a ranking.  Absent ESPN, I probably would have left well enough alone.

So, here's my top 125.  In parentheses is the ESPN list. 

125. Will Clark 60 WAR in only 8300 PA, a 137 OPS+ (Roy Campanella, not on my list)
124.Curt Schilling 71.5 WAR, ERA+ 128 (Arky Vaughan, much, much higher)
123. Whitey Ford 59 WAR, ERA+ 133 (Don Drysdale, just a second away)
122.Don Drysdale 72.25 WAR (Edgar Martinez, about 25 spots away)
121. Kevin Brown 70.7 WAR, ERA+ 127 (Ed Delahanty, much higher on my list)
120. Paul Molitor  WAR 73 OPS+122. 12,000 PA(Billy Williams, not on my list)
119. Todd Helton 64 WAR OPS+136, compare Helton with Eddie Murray, 64 WAR OPS+129, and Helton's value is in 4000 fewer PA. Helton is no question>Eddie Murray. (Rube Waddell, not on my list)
118.Ducky Medwick 58.25 WAR in 8100 PA, 134 OPS+(Lou Boudreau, about 20 spots away)
117. Joe Gordon 58.5 in 6500 PA. A second baseman with an OPS+ of 120. (Sam Crawford, about 40 spots away)
116. Larry Walker I gotta stop saying Larry Walker isn't a Hall of Famer, OPS+ 140, 65.5 WAR only 8000 PA. (Dennis Eckersley just missed my list)
115.King Kelly WAR 57.5 OPS+138 PA=6500; so, like Gordon but with more bat and a catcher. (Tim Keefe, just missed)
114. Elmer Flick WAR 58, OPS+149 6400 PA; tell me you don't love that bat? Al Simmons is going to come up on the ESPN list later, he's got less value and a lot less bat in 3000 more PA (George Sisler, not on my list)
113.Joe Jackson WAR 58 OPS+ 169, 5700 PA - it's only the relative lack of career value that keeps Shoeless Joe here; it's just a ton, a ton of bat. (Bill Dickey, about 30 spots away) 
112.Don Sutton 73.5 He's here just for career value as his ERA+ is relatively low.(Ryne Sandberg, just missed)
111.Robin Yount 75 WAR, 12,250 PA I think everyone with a 75 WAR makes my top 125(Pud Galvin, not on list)
110.Bill Dahlen 78.5 WAR The Vet's committee just passed on Dahlen's 78+ WAR which is unfortunate. (Harry Heilmann, just a second away)
109.Jim Thome 75 WAR a little over 10,000 PA 146 OPS+, solidly a HOF'er.(Don Sutton, so close to mine!) 
108.Bob Caruthers Lives in a very special box, an OPS+ 133 and ERA+123.(Rafael Palmeiro, just missed)
107. Buck Ewing 60.5 WAR and a 129 OPS+ as a catcher with only 5800 PA(Johnny Mize, about 50 spots away) 
106.Roy Halladay 66.5 WAR, Doc's ERA+ is 134(Whitey Ford, you already saw him) 
105.Harry Heilmann(Curt Schilling, already saw him) 
104.Hal Newhouser  (Dave Winfield, not on my list)
103. Jim Palmer(Eddie Plank, coming soon) 
102.John Clarkson (Joe Jackson, you just saw him)
101.Gary Carter(Luke Appling, just missed) 

And now - the Hall of 100
100. Tim Raines (Phil Niekro, much higher on my list, ESPN underrates career value)
99.Billy Hamilton(Al Simmons, just missed) 
98.Lou Boudreau (Joe Cronin, just missed) 
97. Ron Santo  (Ron Santo - winner!)
96.Edgar Martinez(Tim Raines, very close) 
95. Jim Edmonds (Sammy Sosa, just missed)
94. Scott Rolen(Jim Thome, you already saw him) 
93. Eddie Plank (Tom Glavine, about 30 spots away)
92. Derek Jeter Roy Halladay, already appeared)
91. Tony Gwynn(Paul Waner, about 30 spots away) 
90. Rod Carew (Craig Biggio, just missed, I have a block with he, Sandberg, and the two Tigers middle infielders who you'd expect to just miss) 
89.Barry Larkin(Jim Palmer, already appeared)
88.Gary Sheffield(Cap Anson, about 50 spots away, I'm probably higher on the 19th C players than is ESPN) 
87. Ernie Banks (Frankie Frisch, he's in the same middle infield block previously referenced)
86. Dick Allen (Gary Carter, already appeared)
85. Reggie Jackson (Manny Ramirez, 20 spots away)
84. John Smoltz (Willie Stargell, not on my list)
83. Bobby Grich(Mark McGwire, coming soon) 
82.Sam Crawford (Kid Nichols, 40 spots away)
81. Bill Dickey(Duke Snider, just missed, might be #126)
80. Yogi Berra(Charlie Gehringer, about 30 spots away) 
79.Juan Marichal(Robin Roberts, coming soon) 
78. Bob Feller(Mike Piazza, coming real soon) 
77. Carl Hubbell (Paul Molitor, already saw him)
76. Ed Walsh(Carlton Fisk, just missed, I think he's #127) 

The 75 Best Baseball Players Who Ever Lived...
75. Mark McGwire (John Smoltz, you just saw him)
74. Willie McCovey (Barry Larkin, he just appeared)
73. Mike Piazza (Robby Alomar, also in that middle infield group)
72.Jackie Robinson (Bert Blyleven, about 20 away)
71. Mariano Rivera(Pudge Rodriguez, really close)  
70.Ivan Rodriguez  (Juan Marichal, he just appeared) 
69.Fergie Jenkins(Frank Thomas, about 25 spots away) 
68. Pete Rose (Jeff Bagwell, I have him back to back with Frank)
67.Carl Yastrzemski(Mariano Rivera, he just appeared) 
66.Manny Ramirez(Gaylord Perry, coming soon) 
65.Robin Roberts (Eddie Murray, he's just behind Palmeiro, in the top 130) 
64. George Davis  (Harmon Killebrew, not enough career value to crack the list)
63. Ozzie Smith(Hank Greenberg, answer as above) 
62.Tom Glavine (Fergie Jenkins, he just appeared) 
61.Mike Mussina  (Tony Gwynn, already appeared)
60. Paul Waner(Ozzie Smith, very close) 
59.Roberto Clemente (Bob Feller, already saw him)
58.Ed Delahanty  (Robin Yount, appeared awhile ago)  
57. Johnny Mize (Willie McCovey, already appeared) 
56. Nolan Ryan  (Yogi Berra, already appeared)
55.Phil Niekro(Reggie Jackson, already appeared)
54. Gaylord Perry (Wade Boggs, coming soon)
53.Steve Carlton (Rod Carew, already appeared) 
52.Bert Blyleven (Jackie Robinson, already appeared) 
51. Arky Vaughan (Ernie Banks, already appeared) (Pete Alexander...still to come...)

The 50 Best Baseball Players Who Ever Lived...
50. Charlie Gehringer (Pete Alexander...still to come...) 
49. Chipper Jones (Chipper Jones, so close!) 
48. George Brett (Nap Lajoie - in my top 20) 
47. Wade Boggs  (Lefty Grove...still to come...)
46. Al Kaline (Al Kaline, so close!)
45. Ken Griffey (Warren Spahn...still to come...)(
44.Frank Thomas (Sandy Koufax, not on my list, the height of ESPN giving too much credit to short careers)(
43.Jeff Bagwell(Brooks Robinson, not on my list - there is no way on earth he was better than Boggs) 
42.Dan Brouthers (Eddie Collins - in my top 20) 
41. Kid Nichols(Pedro Martinez, coming real soon) 
40.Pedro Martinez (Carl Yastrzemski - already appeared)
39.Joe DiMaggio (Eddie Mathews, coming soon...)
38. Johnny Bench(Derek Jeter, already appeared)
37. Cap Anson(Pete Rose, already appeared) 
36. Bob Gibson(Mel Ott...coming soon...) 
35. Roger Connor(Nolan Ryan, already appeared)
34. Cal Ripken(Ken Griffey, just saw him)
33. Lefty Grove (Roberto Clemente, already appeared)
32. Jimmie Foxx (Bob Gibson, just saw him)(
31.Warren Spahn(Cal Ripken, just saw him)
30 Eddie Mathews(George Brett, already appeared) 
29.Tom Seaver(Christy Mathewson, coming soon) 
28.Randy Johnson(Jimmie Foxx, just saw him) 
27.Pete Alexander (Johnny Bench, already appeared)
26.Christy Mathewson(Steve Carlton, it's a challenge to make an argument that Lefty was better than Matty or Pete Alexander.)

Who Were the 25 Best Baseball Players Ever?
25. Albert Pujols (Tris Speaker - still to come)
24Greg Maddux (Tom Seaver, just saw him)
23. Mel Ott (Randy Johnson, just saw him)
22. Joe Morgan (Frank Robinson, he's next)
21.Frank Robinson (Joe DiMaggio, already saw him)
20. Nap Lajoie (Joe Morgan, just appeared) 
19.Alex Rodriguez (Albert Pujols, just appeared)
18.Mickey Mantle (Alex Rodriguez, just appeared)
17. Eddie Collins (Cy Young - in my top 10)
16.Rickey Henderson (Mike Schmidt, coming next)
15. Mike Schmidt (Rogers Hornsby, coming soon)
14. Lou Gehrig (Rickey Henderson, just saw him)
13.Tris Speaker (Greg Maddux, already appeared)
12. Rogers Hornsby (Walter Johnson - in my top 5)
11Ted Williams (Lou Gehrig, just saw him)

The Top Ten.
10.Cy Young (Honus Wagner, still to come)
9.Stan Musial (Mickey Mantle, just saw him)
8. Hank Aaron (Stan Musial, right up there)
7.Roger Clemens (Bingo.  Roger Clemens)
6. Honus Wagner (Ty Cobb, he's next)
5. Ty Cobb (Hank Aaron, just saw him) 
4. Walter Johnson (Ted Williams, already appeared) 
3. Willie Mays (Barry Bonds, he's next)
2. Barry Bonds An 8 WAR season is an MVPQuality season,
Bonds had 13 of them.(Willie Mays, he was last)
1. Babe Ruth  The 206 OPS+is probably enough. (And there we go.) 

2012 Athlete of the Year

Tuesday, December 18, 2012


LeBron James.

The truth is the only revision necessary is from the sports establishment who chose James as the latest member of the "he can't win the big one due to some character defect that, hey, look, it went away so now we can write about his journey" club.  LeBron James, prior to 2012, was the greatest basketball player since Jordan and the most dominant American athlete since Bonds.

This year he added an NBA Title, won the gold medal, and exits the year as he began, the unquestioned dominant figure in American sport.

2012 was a big year for global athletes, Messi's the runner-up, his goal total for the calendar year is at 90 at the time of this writing. Bolt places third.

January-Courtney Upshaw
February-Eli Manning
March-Kevin Love
April-Brittney Griner 
May-Josh Hamilton
June-LeBron James
July-Mike Trout 
August - Usain Bolt
September - Andy Murray
October - Pablo Sandoval
November - Johnny Manziel
December - Lionel Messi

I've been conducting this exercise, picking an athlete each week, each month, each year, since the beginning of 1990.  LeBron''s the first NBA player to win since '95. Here's the rundown of each year's winner:

1990: Joe Montana
1991: Michael Jordan
1992: Mario Lemieux
1993: Michael Jordan
1994: George Foreman
1995: Hakeem Olajuwon
1996: Michael Jordan
1997: Tiger Woods
1998: Mark McGwire
1999: Tiger Woods
2000: Tiger Woods
2001: Barry Bonds
2002: Barry Bonds
2003: Lance Armstrong
2004: Peyton Manning
2005: Reggie Bush
2006: Roger Federer
2007: Tom Brady
2008: Usain Bolt
2009: Manny Pacquiao
2010: Maya Moore
2011: Aaron Rodgers
2012: LeBron James




Athlete of the Month - December 2012

Monday, December 17, 2012

November was here.



Lionel Messi.  Runners-up: Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning, Juan Manuel Marquez

That's it.  12 nominees for 2012 Athlete of the Year:

January-Courtney Upshaw
February-Eli Manning
March-Kevin Love
April-Brittney Griner 
May-Josh Hamilton
June-LeBron James
July-Mike Trout 
August - Usain Bolt
September - Andy Murray
October - Pablo Sandoval
November - Johnny Manziel
December - Lionel Messi

The 2012 Athlete of the Year Post will be tomorrow.

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