NFL Picks December 23 2012

Last week's picks are here. I'm 97-85-2.

Lions +4 Falcons loss
Panthers -8.5 Raiders win
Balt +2.5 NYG win

99-86-2

MLB Hall of 100 (through 2012)

I spend an unfortunate amount of time ranking athletes.  

So when ESPN created a Hall of 100, ranking the top 125 baseball players of all time, that just fed my monkey.

My starting point is here. That's a career value objective ranking of the top 200 baseball players ever by WAR (B-Ref+Davenport).  In the textual discussion that you could find as a link within that link you'll see a deeper dive into the career numbers where I offer some subjective thoughts and an all time subjective roster, but not a ranking.  Absent ESPN, I probably would have left well enough alone.

So, here's my top 125.  In parentheses is the ESPN list. 

125. Will Clark 60 WAR in only 8300 PA, a 137 OPS+ (Roy Campanella, not on my list)

124.Curt Schilling 71.5 WAR, ERA+ 128 (Arky Vaughan, much, much higher)

123. Whitey Ford 59 WAR, ERA+ 133 (Don Drysdale, just a second away)

122.Don Drysdale 72.25 WAR (Edgar Martinez, about 25 spots away)

121. Kevin Brown 70.7 WAR, ERA+ 127 (Ed Delahanty, much higher on my list)

120. Paul Molitor  WAR 73 OPS+122. 12,000 PA(Billy Williams, not on my list)

119. Todd Helton 64 WAR OPS+136, compare Helton with Eddie Murray, 64 WAR OPS+129, and Helton's value is in 4000 fewer PA. Helton is no question>Eddie Murray. (Rube Waddell, not on my list)

118.Ducky Medwick 58.25 WAR in 8100 PA, 134 OPS+(Lou Boudreau, about 20 spots away)

117. Joe Gordon 58.5 in 6500 PA. A second baseman with an OPS+ of 120. (Sam Crawford, about 40 spots away)

116. Larry Walker I gotta stop saying Larry Walker isn't a Hall of Famer, OPS+ 140, 65.5 WAR only 8000 PA. (Dennis Eckersley just missed my list)

115.King Kelly WAR 57.5 OPS+138 PA=6500; so, like Gordon but with more bat and a catcher. (Tim Keefe, just missed)

114. Elmer Flick WAR 58, OPS+149 6400 PA; tell me you don't love that bat? Al Simmons is going to come up on the ESPN list later, he's got less value and a lot less bat in 3000 more PA (George Sisler, not on my list)

113.Joe Jackson WAR 58 OPS+ 169, 5700 PA - it's only the relative lack of career value that keeps Shoeless Joe here; it's just a ton, a ton of bat. (Bill Dickey, about 30 spots away) 

112.Don Sutton 73.5 He's here just for career value as his ERA+ is relatively low.(Ryne Sandberg, just missed)

111.Robin Yount 75 WAR, 12,250 PA I think everyone with a 75 WAR makes my top 125(Pud Galvin, not on list)

110.Bill Dahlen 78.5 WAR The Vet's committee just passed on Dahlen's 78+ WAR which is unfortunate. (Harry Heilmann, just a second away)

109.Jim Thome 75 WAR a little over 10,000 PA 146 OPS+, solidly a HOF'er.(Don Sutton, so close to mine!) 

108.Bob Caruthers Lives in a very special box, an OPS+ 133 and ERA+123.(Rafael Palmeiro, just missed)

107. Buck Ewing 60.5 WAR and a 129 OPS+ as a catcher with only 5800 PA(Johnny Mize, about 50 spots away) 

106.Roy Halladay 66.5 WAR, Doc's ERA+ is 134(Whitey Ford, you already saw him) 

105.Harry Heilmann(Curt Schilling, already saw him) 

104.Hal Newhouser  (Dave Winfield, not on my list)

103. Jim Palmer(Eddie Plank, coming soon) 

102.John Clarkson (Joe Jackson, you just saw him)

101.Gary Carter(Luke Appling, just missed) 

And now - the Hall of 100

100. Tim Raines (Phil Niekro, much higher on my list, ESPN underrates career value)

99.Billy Hamilton(Al Simmons, just missed) 

98.Lou Boudreau (Joe Cronin, just missed) 

97. Ron Santo  (Ron Santo - winner!)

96.Edgar Martinez(Tim Raines, very close) 

95. Jim Edmonds (Sammy Sosa, just missed)

94. Scott Rolen(Jim Thome, you already saw him) 

93. Eddie Plank (Tom Glavine, about 30 spots away)

92. Derek Jeter Roy Halladay, already appeared)

91. Tony Gwynn(Paul Waner, about 30 spots away) 

90. Rod Carew (Craig Biggio, just missed, I have a block with he, Sandberg, and the two Tigers middle infielders who you'd expect to just miss) 

89.Barry Larkin(Jim Palmer, already appeared)

88.Gary Sheffield(Cap Anson, about 50 spots away, I'm probably higher on the 19th C players than is ESPN) 

87. Ernie Banks (Frankie Frisch, he's in the same middle infield block previously referenced)

86. Dick Allen (Gary Carter, already appeared)

85. Reggie Jackson (Manny Ramirez, 20 spots away)

84. John Smoltz (Willie Stargell, not on my list)

83. Bobby Grich(Mark McGwire, coming soon) 

82.Sam Crawford (Kid Nichols, 40 spots away)

81. Bill Dickey(Duke Snider, just missed, might be #126)

80. Yogi Berra(Charlie Gehringer, about 30 spots away) 

79.Juan Marichal(Robin Roberts, coming soon) 

78. Bob Feller(Mike Piazza, coming real soon) 

77. Carl Hubbell (Paul Molitor, already saw him)
76. Ed Walsh(Carlton Fisk, just missed, I think he's #127) 

The 75 Best Baseball Players Who Ever Lived...

75. Mark McGwire (John Smoltz, you just saw him)

74. Willie McCovey (Barry Larkin, he just appeared)

73. Mike Piazza (Robby Alomar, also in that middle infield group)

72.Jackie Robinson (Bert Blyleven, about 20 away)

71. Mariano Rivera(Pudge Rodriguez, really close)  

70.Ivan Rodriguez  (Juan Marichal, he just appeared) 

69.Fergie Jenkins(Frank Thomas, about 25 spots away) 

68. Pete Rose (Jeff Bagwell, I have him back to back with Frank)

67.Carl Yastrzemski(Mariano Rivera, he just appeared) 

66.Manny Ramirez(Gaylord Perry, coming soon) 

65.Robin Roberts (Eddie Murray, he's just behind Palmeiro, in the top 130) 

64. George Davis  (Harmon Killebrew, not enough career value to crack the list)

63. Ozzie Smith(Hank Greenberg, answer as above) 

62.Tom Glavine (Fergie Jenkins, he just appeared) 

61.Mike Mussina  (Tony Gwynn, already appeared)

60. Paul Waner(Ozzie Smith, very close) 

59.Roberto Clemente (Bob Feller, already saw him)

58.Ed Delahanty  (Robin Yount, appeared awhile ago)  

57. Johnny Mize (Willie McCovey, already appeared) 

56. Nolan Ryan  (Yogi Berra, already appeared)

55.Phil Niekro(Reggie Jackson, already appeared)

54. Gaylord Perry (Wade Boggs, coming soon)

53.Steve Carlton (Rod Carew, already appeared) 

52.Bert Blyleven (Jackie Robinson, already appeared) 
51. Arky Vaughan (Ernie Banks, already appeared) (Pete Alexander...still to come...)

The 50 Best Baseball Players Who Ever Lived...

50. Charlie Gehringer (Pete Alexander...still to come...) 

49. Chipper Jones (Chipper Jones, so close!) 

48. George Brett (Nap Lajoie - in my top 20) 

47. Wade Boggs  (Lefty Grove...still to come...)

46. Al Kaline (Al Kaline, so close!)

45. Ken Griffey (Warren Spahn...still to come...)(

44.Frank Thomas (Sandy Koufax, not on my list, the height of ESPN giving too much credit to short careers)(

43.Jeff Bagwell(Brooks Robinson, not on my list - there is no way on earth he was better than Boggs) 

42.Dan Brouthers (Eddie Collins - in my top 20) 

41. Kid Nichols(Pedro Martinez, coming real soon) 

40.Pedro Martinez (Carl Yastrzemski - already appeared)

39.Joe DiMaggio (Eddie Mathews, coming soon...)

38. Johnny Bench(Derek Jeter, already appeared)

37. Cap Anson(Pete Rose, already appeared) 

36. Bob Gibson(Mel Ott...coming soon...) 

35. Roger Connor(Nolan Ryan, already appeared)

34. Cal Ripken(Ken Griffey, just saw him)

33. Lefty Grove (Roberto Clemente, already appeared)

32. Jimmie Foxx (Bob Gibson, just saw him)(

31.Warren Spahn(Cal Ripken, just saw him)

30 Eddie Mathews(George Brett, already appeared) 

29.Tom Seaver(Christy Mathewson, coming soon) 

28.Randy Johnson(Jimmie Foxx, just saw him) 

27.Pete Alexander (Johnny Bench, already appeared)

26.Christy Mathewson(Steve Carlton, it's a challenge to make an argument that Lefty was better than Matty or Pete Alexander.)

Who Were the 25 Best Baseball Players Ever?
25. Albert Pujols (Tris Speaker - still to come)

24Greg Maddux (Tom Seaver, just saw him)

23. Mel Ott (Randy Johnson, just saw him)

22. Joe Morgan (Frank Robinson, he's next)

21.Frank Robinson (Joe DiMaggio, already saw him)

20. Nap Lajoie (Joe Morgan, just appeared) 

19.Alex Rodriguez (Albert Pujols, just appeared)

18.Mickey Mantle (Alex Rodriguez, just appeared)

17. Eddie Collins (Cy Young - in my top 10)

16.Rickey Henderson (Mike Schmidt, coming next)

15. Mike Schmidt (Rogers Hornsby, coming soon)

14. Lou Gehrig (Rickey Henderson, just saw him)

13.Tris Speaker (Greg Maddux, already appeared)

12. Rogers Hornsby (Walter Johnson - in my top 5)

11Ted Williams (Lou Gehrig, just saw him)

The Top Ten.

10.Cy Young (Honus Wagner, still to come)

9.Stan Musial (Mickey Mantle, just saw him)

8. Hank Aaron (Stan Musial, right up there)

7.Roger Clemens (Bingo.  Roger Clemens)

6. Honus Wagner (Ty Cobb, he's next)

5. Ty Cobb (Hank Aaron, just saw him) 

4. Walter Johnson (Ted Williams, already appeared) 

3. Willie Mays (Barry Bonds, he's next)

2. Barry Bonds An 8 WAR season is an MVPQuality season,
Bonds had 13 of them.(Willie Mays, he was last)

1. Babe Ruth  The 206 OPS+is probably enough. (And there we go.) 

2012 Athlete of the Year

LeBron James.

The truth is the only revision necessary is from the sports establishment who chose James as the latest member of the "he can't win the big one due to some character defect that, hey, look, it went away so now we can write about his journey" club.  LeBron James, prior to 2012, was the greatest basketball player since Jordan and the most dominant American athlete since Bonds.

This year he added an NBA Title, won the gold medal, and exits the year as he began, the unquestioned dominant figure in American sport.

2012 was a big year for global athletes, Messi's the runner-up, his goal total for the calendar year is at 90 at the time of this writing. Bolt places third.

January-Courtney Upshaw
February-Eli Manning
March-Kevin Love
April-Brittney Griner 
May-Josh Hamilton
June-LeBron James
July-Mike Trout 
August - Usain Bolt
September - Andy Murray
October - Pablo Sandoval
November - Johnny Manziel
December - Lionel Messi

I've been conducting this exercise, picking an athlete each week, each month, each year, since the beginning of 1990.  LeBron''s the first NBA player to win since '95. Here's the rundown of each year's winner:

1990: Joe Montana
1991: Michael Jordan
1992: Mario Lemieux
1993: Michael Jordan
1994: George Foreman
1995: Hakeem Olajuwon
1996: Michael Jordan
1997: Tiger Woods
1998: Mark McGwire
1999: Tiger Woods
2000: Tiger Woods
2001: Barry Bonds
2002: Barry Bonds
2003: Lance Armstrong
2004: Peyton Manning
2005: Reggie Bush
2006: Roger Federer
2007: Tom Brady
2008: Usain Bolt
2009: Manny Pacquiao
2010: Maya Moore
2011: Aaron Rodgers
2012: LeBron James

Athlete of the Month - December 2012

November was here.



Lionel Messi.  Runners-up: Adrian Peterson, Peyton Manning, Juan Manuel Marquez

That's it.  12 nominees for 2012 Athlete of the Year:

January-Courtney Upshaw
February-Eli Manning
March-Kevin Love
April-Brittney Griner 
May-Josh Hamilton
June-LeBron James
July-Mike Trout 
August - Usain Bolt
September - Andy Murray
October - Pablo Sandoval
November - Johnny Manziel
December - Lionel Messi

The 2012 Athlete of the Year Post will be tomorrow.

2012-13 College Bowl Picks/NFL Picks Dec 16

Last week is here.

I’m 94-83-2 ATS. First, the NFL picks.  Then the bowls; you get (1) my outright winner for each game (2) you get those games that I’m picking ATS, I think there are 13, and, in bold, you get how I would rank each game in a confidence pool. 

Carolina +3 SD win

Dall +2 Pittsburgh win

Bears +3 GB loss

Niners +5.5 win

Jets +1.5 loss

97-85-2

Saturday, December 15th

25 Arizona  d. Nevada   win
24 Utah State d. Toledo win

Thursday, December 20th

9 BYU d. San Diego State win

Friday, December 21st

16 Central Florida d. Ball State win

Saturday, December 22nd

23 Boise State d. Washington win
30 Louisiana Lafayette -6, East Carolina win/win

Monday, December 24th

33 Fresno State d. SMU loss

Wednesday, December 26th

22 Western Kentucky -5.5 Central Michigan loss/loss

Thursday, December 27th

3 Baylor d. UCLA  win
34  Cincinnati -7 Duke win/win
31 San Jose State -6 Bowling Green win/win

Friday, December 28th

21 Louisiana Monroe d. Ohio loss
19 Rutgers +2.5 Virginia Tech loss/loss
27 Texas Tech d. Minnesota win

Saturday, December 29th

28  Arizona State d. Navy win
5 Michigan State d. TCU win
10 Oregon State d. Texas loss
6  Rice d. Air Force win
12 Syracuse  +4 West Virginia win/win

Monday, December 31st

11  Iowa State +5 Tulsa loss/loss
20 LSU d. Clemson loss
26 USC d. Georgia Tech loss
8 Vanderbilt d. North Carolina State win

Tuesday, January 1st

 13  Florida State d. Northern Illinois +13.5 win/loss
17 Georgia d. Nebraska win
29 Northwestern +2.5 Mississippi State win/win 
35  Oklahoma State d. Purdue win
15 South Carolina d. Michigan win
14 Stanford d. Wisconsin win

Wednesday, January 2nd

32  Florida d. Louisville loss

Thursday, January 3rd

2 Kansas State +9.5 Oregon loss/loss

Friday, January 4th

7 Oklahoma +4.5 Texas A&M loss/loss

Saturday, January 5th

18 Pittsburgh +3.5 Mississippi loss/loss

Sunday, January 6th

4 Kent State d. Arkansas State loss

Monday, January 7th

1 Notre Dame +10 Alabama loss/loss