Super Bowl 46 Prediction(and Props)

I'm taking New England.

Let's start here.  I'm 8-2 against the spread so far in the playoffs.  I am taking New England.

I'm taking them based on an historical evaluation of the regular season disparity between the two teams.

Here is a ranking of every Super Bowl winner based on regular season quality; a metric combining point differential and strength of schedule.  If New York wins the Super Bowl, they will be the second worst winner all time, ahead of only the Colts team from V.  New England would be in the middle of the pack, 24th, between the Packers from II and the '86 Giants.

Yes, the Giants are healthy now.  Yes.

But we've had 46 years of Super Bowl history, 46 years of seasons where teams had injuries and then got healthy, and when you look at 46 years, there just aren't too many teams who look like the Giants that wound up winning the Super Bowl.

They look like a handful of Super Bowl losers.  '99 Titans.  '79 Rams. '08 Cardinals. '00 Giants. '03 Panthers.

But not like many winners.

The disparity between the Patriots and Giants is also historically significant when looking at past SB upsets.

This would be bigger than the IV Chiefs/Vikes upset.  Bigger than the II gap between Oakland and the Packers.  Even bigger than the Redskins/Raiders.  There are 3 bigger upsets.  The Jets from III, the first Patriots win, and of course, 2007, which might be the biggest upset in the history of a major team sport championship.

The Giants gave up more points than they scored this year.  No SB winner has ever done that.

3/4 of all SB favorites won the game straight up.

On the merits of the matchups, I get the New York sentiment, which was why I said going into the playoffs that they were the dark horse.  It's not a special New England team, and if you look at those Giants receivers and the Patriots secondary, you really want to play the over (I'm not doing that).

You've got to pick a winner, it's the Super Bowl.  And when I've had the most success picking against the spread isn't when I've looked specifically at the matchups and tried to subjectively determine if the Giants pass rush will be able to get pressure on Brady or if New York will be able to run on the Patriots.  When I've had the most success against the number is when I've entirely ignored the specific players and instead looked at the historical sweep of the contest.  When I make my weekly picks during the season, I don't have either time or access to numbers each week that would tell me (for example) that divisional home favorites of a field goal are less have a significant winning percentage over the past 40 years.  If I did, I'd use them and that's basically all I would use.  You can play what happened last week if you want, I'll play what happened the last 40 years.

And sometimes you'll be right.  But I'll be right more often.

Favorites win this game outright 75% of the time over a 45 year sample.

Teams with regular season profiles like New York's don't win this game.  Just once in 45 years.

That doesn't mean New England wins - there isn't a result here that could be as monumentally surprising as a result we've already seen between these two teams 4 years ago.

But if you have to pick a side - and this is a Super Bowl prediction so I'm gonna - I'm going with 45 years of history.

If I wanted to talk about the specific players on the field - I'm going to ride with Brady.  I'm not the biggest Tom Brady fan; to some extent he's a little historically overrated, given excessive credit for New England success.  By that I mean he's just not seriously in the "best QB of all time" discussion.

Let's not overstate that though.  Right now, I'd rank him below Graham, below Elway, below Favre, below Manning, below Unitas, below Marino, below Tarkenton, below Joe, below Young.

But that's it.  I'd now have him ahead of both Fouts and Anderson.  Ahead of Staubach and Bradshaw.  I don't know that I would have said any of that a year ago.

I think this is his game.  This is the game where he wins his 4th Super Bowl, where he passes Joe in all time playoff wins, where he beats a Manning (albeit the wrong one) in Indianapolis in the biggest game of the season.  I've ranked every QB performance in a SB here; Brady's had two really good games, I've got SB39 as the 15th best and SB38 as the 18th best of all time.  But he doesn't have one of those Montana games, a huge multi-touchdown no pick game where he just stands masterfully head and shoulders above the sport.

I think that's this game.  I think we leave Sunday believing that Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the world and where a huge percentage of sports conversation (wrongly) says he's now the best ever.

The book I generally use still has the game at 3, but I know you can get the game at 2.5, which, obviously, I prefer.  I'm going to say the line is 2.5 and if it turns out that half point matters you can put an asterisk when I say I went 9-2 in this postseason.

31-24 Patriots.  


Given opportunity, I'll toss in some prop thoughts Friday.

Okay, consider the following props:

Will Either Team Score in the first 5.5 Minutes of the Game: No -125
Will Either Team Score 3 Unanswered Times: Yes -190
Will the Game Go Into Overtime: No -1200
Will the Game Be Decided by Exactly 3 Points: No -450
Will at Least One Quarter be Scoreless: No -420
Longest TD Scored in Game: Under 49.5 -115
Will There be a Special Teams or Defensive TD: No -180
How Many Kickoff Returns will the Two Teams Combine For: Under 6.5 -165
Will Zoltan Mesko Punt a Touchback: No -250
Will a FG Attempt be Missed: No -130
Patriot Sacks: Over 2 +110
Ahmed Bradshaw Receptions Over 2.5 -110
Will Either Team Succesfully Convert a 4th Down: Yes -230
Will There be a Safety: No -1300
How Many Players will Attempt a Pass: Under 2.5 -350
Total Receptions: Wes Welker: Over 6.5
Which Will Be Higher: Lebron James Points/Eli Manning's Completions: LBJ -150

The Top 10 Super Bowls of All Time

Updated through SB51.

NFL Network did a countdown of the Top 10 Super Bowls of all Time.  Here's its list:
1. SB43 Steelers d. Cardinals
2. SB42 Giants d. Patriots
3. SB32 Broncos d. Packers
4. SB25 Giants d. Bills
5. SB38 Patriots d. Panthers
6. SB13 Steelers d. Cowboys
7. SB23 Niners d. Bengals
8. SB44 Saints d. Colts
9. SB36 Patriots d. Rams
10. SB3 Jets d. Colts

I did my own list, considering two components (1) the game result had to be within a touchdown (once the 2 point conversion was added, that bumps to 8 points) and (2) I looked for good teams, using the pythagorean+strength of schedule number that I used here.  Some games had better finishes, but what I want are good teams playing close games - this is the list.

My List:
1. SB42 Giants 17 (3.3) Patriots 14 (20.1)
2. SB45 Packers 31 (10.9) Steelers 25 (10.2)
3. SB49 Patriots 28 (10.9) Seahawks 24 (9.5)
4. SB13 Steelers 35 (8.2) Cowboys 31 (11)
5. SB10 Steelers 21 (14.2) Cowboys 17 (4.1)
6. SB39 Patriots 24 (12.8) Eagles 21 (5.6)
7. SB36 Patriots 20 (4.3) Rams 17 (13.4)
8. SB32 Broncos 31 (10.7) Packers 24 (7.7)
9. SB 52 Eagles 41 (9.41) Patriots 33 (8.89)
10. SB 51 Patriots (9.3) Falcons (8.5)

The Top 10 Teams That Didn't Win a Super Bowl

Last night, NFL Network did a ranking of the ten best teams never to win a Super Bowl (from the Super Bowl era).

NFL Network List:
1. 2007 Patriots
2. 1968 Colts
3. 1990 Bills
4. 1998 Vikings
5. 1981 Chargers
6. 2001 Rams
7. 1986 Browns
8. 1984 Dolphins
9. 1979 Oilers
10. 1983 Redskins

Using the same pythagorean+strength of schedule number that I used in ranking every Super Bowl winner, here's my list:

1. 2007 Patriots 20.1
2. 1968 Colts 17.9
3. 1969 Vikings 17.6
4. 2010 Patriots 15.4
5. 1976 Steelers 15.3
5. 1967 Raiders 15.3
7. 1970 Vikings 15.1
8. 1998 Vikings 14.9
9. 1968 Raiders 14.3
10. 1968 Chiefs 14

The Weekly Tendown January 22-28 2012(Don't Send a Community Relations Manager to do a Stathead's Job)

Dear Internet:

Pitchers and catchers report in 20 days.

This is Tendown 112.  111 is here.

1. The Post Mortem
The 49ers last Super Bowl appearance was 17 years ago.  In that time, the single instant in which we had our best chance to get back was last Sunday when Eli threw an incompletion on third down deep in their own territory with 11:23 left.

As the Giants lined up to punt us the ball back, our win probability was 78%.

A 78% chance to go to the Super Bowl.

We didn't go, as you're aware.  You can find out why by reading my post previewing the game.

This isn't just to brag (although a little bit, I'm 8-2 against the spread in the playoffs) it speaks to why you shouldn't consider the Niners to be knocking on Super Bowl's door.  We had a massive turnover differential this season, as spotlighted by the five we took away from the Saints the week before.  Of the statistics you're likely to hear on pregame shows, the one with the least amount of predictive value for future games (or seasons) is turnover differential, as there's a high level of associated happenstance.  The balls that bounce your way for a game, even for a season, don't suggest they'll continue to bounce your way.  A season of turnovers turned into our defensive backs twice colliding into each other to miss an interception, turned into a quick whistle saying Bradshaw's forward progress was stopped just before we stripped him, turned into the two lost Kyle Williams punt returns.  We also were comparatively injury free this season - but when Ted Ginn went down the week before, Williams had to step in as the punt returner.  When one of those collisions between our defensive backs turned into an injury, our 4th corner had to step in and got beat on New York's 4th quarter touchdown.  Health and turnovers win you games, but you can't count on them, and you're likely to fall back to normalized levels of both next season.

What those two factors did was minimize the harm of our middling offense; in my preview piece, I said we really only have two weapons, Vernon Davis (who scored twice) and the backup running back Kendall Hunter.  We need a field stretching receiver (and a ton of them are available); Hunter needs his workload increased, either into a time share with Gore or one with Dixon with Gore leaving town, and we need to take a grown up look at Alex Smith.

At the close of the Saints game, Ted Robinson ebulliently, maybe even defiantly, shouted that no one should ever doubt Alex again.

There's been no reason to doubt Alex Smith for two seasons - he's an average to goodish quarterback; he can move a little bit and this year didn't turn the ball over at all, meaning he can win the kind of grind it out low leverage game that our defense is built for and that, given the degree that every change in 21st century football favors passing, is the last way I'd want to see my football team structured.  Alex Smith played the game of his life to beat the Saints, but that's not who he is - he's a guy who won't hurt you.

And if that's who we go with, we'll need those turnovers and we'll need that health, and we'll need everything to fall exactly into place.  You can win the Super Bowl with an average to goodish game manager quarterback, but it doesn't happen often.

Or, you could consider...



'Cause that dude's leaving Indiana.

It was a fun year, and as someone who watched Harbaugh kick my ass in the Pac 10 and has now watched him for a year as the 49er coach, I'm fully on board.  I feel better about the competence of 49er decision making than I have in 20 years (and certainly better than the decision making for my baseball team, more about that in a second). So, I don't believe we're headed back to the bottom of the league anytime soon.

But if it's another 17 years before we have a 78% chance to go back to the Super Bowl, that wouldn't surprise either.

2. The Clip Video Which Will Make You Feel Better
For the 49er fan in your life.  This will help.

Here's a good Grantland piece about the title game.  It helps a little less.

3. This Might Help Too, If You're the Vindictive Sort


I got no beef with TO, an all time great 49er.  But I think that's a minority opinion.

If you've got some TO schadenfreude, this GQ piece is a good read:

I'M IN HELL. That's what he texts back to people who ask where he is. "He's stronger than anyone I know, but he's under a lot of pressure, to put it mildly," says one of his few close friends, Matthew Hatchette, a former NFL wide receiver and frequent bowling buddy who coaches high school football in the Valley. It's enough to drive a man to dangerous lows. But all that talk about T.O.'s alleged suicide attempts, the one in 2006 and then another, just a few months ago, that surfaced when TMZ released the 911 call from his assistant? A misunderstanding, he says. 


4. Meanwhile, on the baseball side.
MLB Network did a special about the 40 greatest moments in Division Series history.

(I know, I won the Series two years ago, its too early for me to play the long suffering Giants fan card, I know).

We were featured in 6 of those moments.  Which makes sense, we've played in 5, winning twice.

Here were the six San Francisco Giants highlights from that special.

#38 1997 Game One


Edgar Renteria walked us off.  I was there.  So, not such a great start.

#34 2000 Game 3


Benny Agbayani walked us off.  This one I just saw on TV; it was two weeks after my run ended on the game show.  So, that's two that aren't good. But 2002 has to be next.  2002!

#32. 2003 Game 3

Pudge walked us off in 11 of Game 3 after Jose Cruz dropped that fly ball in the 9th.  I was there.  What about 2002?  Where did 2002 go?

23. 2000 Game 4


Bobby Jones one hit us in Game 4 of 2000.  So, not only did we skip 2002, but we're doubling back for this Mets series.  Two left - obviously, since we won the Series in 2010 and had all those one run games against the Braves, we're about to see some sweet Giants clips on this countdown.

20. 2010 Game 4


So - this was our division clinching game against the Braves - but the moment they chose was that it was Bobby Cox's last game of his career and everyone applauded.  This is our best ever NLDS moment.  Clapping for Bobby Cox.  There's one more, I was there for that too..

#2 2003 Game 4


And that was the countdown.

5. And then This Happened

There's a new game show on MLB Network - it's not for civilians, its the stats guys from each team playing each other for charity.

Or almost each team.  Our representative was the community relations guy ('cause a team with a stats guy doesn't deal Jonathan Sanchez for Melky) and in an opening round game against the Dodgers representative, well, there's the final score.

Know who tried out for the game show I was on once upon a time?  Bill Simmons.  And he wrote about it.

6. This Week In Politics...

Campaign commercials have hit Florida (You could, as of a couple of days ago, still get Romney +400, it went to +800 just a few days after I last suggested you could get some easy money, then dropped off the board when Newt got 10 million bucks to dump into South Carolina and called Obama the "food stamp president, but is now back up at +400, and it remains free money).  Newt's running on the 90s economy.

No, seriously.  The Clinton 90s economy against which Gingrich attempted to shut the government down before he was sanctioned by almost every member of his own party for ethics violations, given the largest fine in Congressional history and eventually drummed clean out of his speakership.  Newt's running on spearheading it.

I mean, you have to go straight to the American people like this to avoid the liberal bias of those Sunday talk shows.  Which last year had twice as many Republican guests as Democrats.

In Tennessee, the Tea Party wants references to slavery taken out of textbooks.  You know, the non partisan tea party, mainly libertarians, they just want small government, their rise totally unrelated to the election of a black President.

And in Arkansas, human excrement, people who I wish nothing but intense suffering every day for the rest of their lives, bashed in the skull of the family cat of a campaign manager for a Democratic congressional candidate and scrawled the word Liberal on its carcass.  You know, like the left is always doing, killing the pets of conservatives and leaving them on the porch for the kids to see.

7. You're Going to Lose Every Time
Hey public school administrators.  You still can't proselytize.  Even in South Carolina.

And to Rhode Island state representative Pete Palumbo, who went on the radio and said the 16 year old hero who stood up for her settled constitutional rights was an evil little thing, as she's predictably getting death threats from followers of the religion that is based on peace (not at all like those Muslims) - I'll refrain from completely speaking my mind and just call you a Know-Nothing Scumbag.

8. I Watch Wrestling
The Rumble is tonight - my preview is here.  I saw a couple of 4 star matches from 2011, Fujita Jr. Hayato v. Nakajima from Kensuke Office in November, Haas and Benjamin against Edwards and Lethal from ROH in November.  I've yet to start watching 2012 matches; my ranking of the Top 25 matches of 2011 is here.

I finished my third week of teaching 9 college courses in 6 different subjects for 4 different schools.  There are easier ways to not be able to afford health insurance than this.  I'm 0-3 in job interviews for full time positions, this week was a legal writing job that didn't go my way.  This doesn't count every job for which I apply, just the ones that are full time for which I get an interview.  Next man up is this week - it's a phone interview with a university, it's the best job for which I've ever interviewed in my life.  Adjunct college professor feels a little like migrant labor.  I'm standing on a streetcorner every morning hoping some passer by will need a day worker to talk about the Epic of Gilgamesh.

9. Academy Award Nominations

Take a close look.  E has a curious understanding of the word "Live".

If you listened, I made you some money at the Golden Globes (come on, I gave you both Kelsey Grammer and Matt LeBlanc, what more do you want?); SAG Awards are tonight, then Grammys, and Oscar Nominations came out this week.

The only real opportunity I see (other than taking not great odds to invest on the Oscar favorites) is Viola Davis for Best Actress; it's Streep who is favored, but Davis is more likely to win.  If you want to get in now on the rest of the favorites (except for both Supporting categories, which just aren't worth the price) go ahead; I haven't looked to see if Adele's even on the board, but maybe you can get a price investing in a sweep.

My Super Bowl pick will be up in a separate post this week, and then I'll include it in next week's Tendown - but if you've read this far - I'm taking New England.

10. What I Learned Watching Another Season of Toddlers and Tiaras.
If you ban the phrase "Get it girl!" and any variation thereof from the competitions, the parents would have absolutely nothing to say.

That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time.  If there is a next time...

Your pal,

Jim

Royal Rumble 2012 Preview/10 Best Matches in Royal Rumble History

My Survivor Series preview was here.



The Rumble is Sunday from St. Louis; there's reason to be enthusiastic.

The main reason is its the Rumble; like pizza, even a bad Rumble is enjoyable (except for here; don't eat there if they pay you; if Brodus Clay eliminates Danielson this year, ripping every ligament in both Bryan's knees in the process, it still wouldn't be as bad as that pizza).  But this year is a possibility for a really good (perhaps top ten of all time worthy, the current list is at the bottom of the post) title match, and the Rumble match itself has some booking intrigue.  I'm looking forward to the event.(I was overly optimistic)

WWE Championship: CM Punk © vs Dolph Ziggler:

When last we left, Punk was taking the title from Del Rio at Survivor Series; subsequent, the primary storyline has been his Austin/Vince type battle against authority figure Johnny Ace (brother of Road Warrior Animal, the lesser half of a good American mid 90s tag act in Japan).  Ziggler's a good young worker with a good act; he dropped his secondary title to Zach Ryder in order to get this upper card push, and has beaten Punk with Ace related screwjobs to get into this title match.  Ace is the guest referee here; they've thrown a returning Mick Foley into this angle on Punk's side, they've set up a returning HHH as possibly firing Ace from his leadership position - so outside interference would not surprise.  This is going to be the best match of the night with a possibility of cracking the 10 best all time Royal Rumble matches; Punk's going to keep one assumes, although if the plan remains to get the belt to Cena for his Mania match against Rock, that has to happen at some point, and if the rumored Jericho/Punk program for Mania is going to happen, that has to launch at some point.  One could see a scenario where they really heavily book the finish and Jericho costs Punk the belt, then Ziggler drops to Cena no later than the February PPV.  In fact, what the hell, that's what I'll say happens.  

Punk has the best matches in the WWF and Ziggler's the kind of act you're glad to see pushed - this is a match you look forward to seeing.(3 stars, they had 7 good minutes and then the booking kicked in, Punk kept after beating Ziggler like a half dozen times)

Smackdown Title: Daniel Bryan © vs Mark Henry vs The Big Show: Steel Cage Match

When last we left, Mark Henry was a monster heel champion feuding with the babyface Big Show while babyface Bryan Danielson (aka: the Best Wrestler in the Hemisphere) held possession of a title shot via the Money in the Bank Briefcase.  Subsequent - Show took the strap from Henry but was incapacitated postmatch leading to Danielson cashing in his briefcase and taking the title.  If you consider that's not a babyface move you'd be right, and Danielson's morphed into a chickenshit heel.  Now, he's good at it, he's getting over with it, and if you're a Bryan Danielson fan you'd much rather see him in this spot than Tyson Kidd's spot.  But as a resource, taking your best worker and giving him a gimmick where he isn't a very good wrestler is less than ideal use.  I think he keeps in a match that will be worse than almost any conceivable Bryan Danielson PPV match and probably better than any match either Henry or Show has ever been in.  There are a couple of things going on here; the speculation is Show is going to be programmed at Mania against Shaquille O Neal, which would require a Show turn at some point (does Shaq show up in the crowd and get piefaced LT style?) and Henry owes a receipt to Randy Orton before he turns face (which one assumes he does, with Danielson as a heel and presumably Show needing to turn).  Could be that Henry takes strong, Orton wins the Rumble and Orton beats him at Mania.  But I'll say they ride this Danielson thing a little longer, that he takes advantage of the Show/Henry rivarly to weasel his way toward keeping his belt.  (Didn't make 3 stars, a 9 minute mot much going on match with Danielson escaping the cage and keeping)

John Cena vs Kane

John Cena is why football is better than wrestling.  When there's a guy who can't really play but he has with the right look and a shtick that brings people who don't care about workrate into the tent; if it's football he's Tim Tebow and still loses in the playoffs if he can't hold onto the ball and complete half of his throws  If it's wrestling - you get John Cena on top for a decade.  Everytime Tebow bows his head he may as well start flashing his hand in front of his face, "hey non evangelical Christians - you can't see me!"  Kane's been brought back to draw the hardcore out of Cena - the Rock criticism of Cena (that he was just for children) became the Punk criticism of Cena (that he's a corporate puppet) has become the Kane criticism of Cena (that he denies the inner rage he must feel at the ungrateful fans who care about things like his inability to throw a punch).  Cena's either going over or getting DQ'd for being too violent, this is designed to give him some type of violent edge as they heat up the Rock program.  Unless Cena's in a program where he's with a worker he's unbearably awful.  #Tebow'sLadyParts.(Double countout, just nothing worth watching, Kane got a postmatch beatdown in to continue the program)

30-Man Royal Rumble Match

We don't know a lot about this - Miz is No. 1, Foley's supposed to be an entrant.  It's Orton's hometown; my pick's him to win - I'd be completely good with an Orton/Danielson program, even though their face/heel dynamic is backward.  Orton/Christian had a really good program last summer; I'd look forward to a series of those matches.  There are rumored nostalgia acts; Mason Ryan getting the Diesel/Kane eliminations spot makes sense.  Miz getting the Backlund ironman spot makes sense.  (Only salvaged by the Sheamus/Jericho sequence at the end.  I like a Rumble that ends with a wrestling sequence.  The rest of the match was filled with comedy and novelty acts; you maybe want to see Kofi's spot, but if the only part of the whole show you see is Sheamus/Jericho, that's plenty)

That's the show - the Rumble is the only match of the year I go in assuming 3 stars; the gimmick alone is a guarantee of a match worth watching.  Add the possibility of a 4 star match with Punk/Ziggler and a likely 3 star Smackdown title match, and now you've got a good card.  I'm in on Rumble 2012.  (I shouldn't have been.)

10 Best Matches in Royal Rumble History:
1. Angle v. Benoit ('03)
2. HHH v. Cactus ('00)
3. Jericho v. Benoit ('01)
4. 2004 Rumble Match (Benoit)
5. 1992 Rumble Match (Flair)
6. Bret v. Diesel ('95)
7. Quebecers v. Bret/Owen ('94)
8. Rockers v. Orient Express ('91)
9. Hardys v. Dudleys ('00)
10. HBK v. HHH ('04)


Past Winners:


2011 - Alberto del Rio #38


2010 - Edge #29

2009 - Randy Orton #8

2008 - John Cena #30

2007 - Undertaker #30

2006 - Rey Mysterio #2

2005 - Batista #28

2004 - Chris Benoit #1

2003 - Brock Lesnar #29

2002 - Triple H #22

2001 - Steve Austin #27

2000 - The Rock #24

1999 - Mr. McMahon #2

1998 - Steve Austin #24

1997 - Steve Austin #5

1996 - Shawn Michaels #18

1995 - Shawn Michaels #1

1994 - Bret Hart #27, Lex Luger #24

1993 - Yokozuna #27

1992 - Ric Flair #3

1991 - Hulk Hogan #24

1990 - Hulk Hogan #25

1989 - Big John Studd #27

1988 - Jim Duggan #13