The Weekly Ten(+8)down October 16-22 2011

Dear Internet:

The Niners are 5-1 and the talk of the National Football League.

SC went into South Bend outmanned for the first time in easily a decade and just whipped the Irish.

And the Giants have one more week as World Champions.

But it's my Ladygal's birthday (actually, it was yesterday, but that meant the day of work I need to do each Saturday got bumped to Sunday) so I won't be talking about any of that.  Instead, what you get are links, graphs, and photos about the 99% movement.

All I have, actually - I don't know how many, I want to clear the backlog as (1) I won't be writing for the next two weeks, next week is the two year anniversary of this column so what you get are links to each piece, then I go dark for a week and (2) this is Tendown 99, and putting the balance of my 99% related material up this week will make that connection easy to reference later.

So - if you have no interest in Occupation effluvia, I've got nothing for you this week.  I have been doing a daily sports post however, so if you're interested in that sort of thing, come back tomorrow.

Here's Tendown 99.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.



9. CEO Pay vs. Your Pay
In England: 25:1
In Sweden: 13:1
In Germany: 11:1
In Japan: 10:1
In 1970 United States: 28:1
In 2005 United States: 158:1
In 2010 United States: 400:1

10. It's Already Working.
You change policy by first changing the discussion.

From July:


From October


11. How Much Have the Bush Tax Cuts Cost?

12. Real World: Occupy MTV

13. How Much Would Herman Cain's 9-9-9 Tax Plan Cut Taxes for the Rich?
210,000 for the top 1%
1,400,000 for the top .1%

14. Occupy Writers.

15. Occupy the Boardroom

16. They're lying to you about the post office.

17. No, they're really lying to you about the post office.

18. Target fired Norma Rae.

That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time, if there is a next time...

Your pal,

Jim

I Pick Every NFL Game in 2011 - Week 7

I went .500 ATS last week; my current overall record is 47-39-4 and I'm 63-27 straight up.

Bucs +1 Bears(loss/loss)
Redskins +2.5 Panthers(panthers win game)(loss/win)
Jets +2 Chargers(win/win)
Browns -3 Seattle(push/win)
Houston +3 Tennessee (win/win)
Denver +1.5 Miami (dolphins win game)(win/loss)
Lions -3.5 Falcons(loss/loss)
Steelers -3.5 Arizona(win/win)
GB -9 Minn (loss/win)
Oakland -6 KC(loss/loss)
StL +13 Dall(Cowboys win game)(loss/win)
Colts+14 Saints (NO wins game)(loss/win)
Ravens -7.5 Jags(loss/loss)

4-8-1 (51-47-5)
8-5 (71-32)

2011 College Football Picks, Week 8

I'm 39-43-1 for the season.

UCLA v. Arizona over 62(loss)
Rutgers +2 Louisville(push)
SFlorida -3 Cincinnati(loss)
Illinois -4 Purdue(loss)
Oklahoma St. v. Missouri under 69(push)
Temple -13.5 BGSU(loss)
Virginia -5.5 NC St.(loss)
Miami -2.5 GTech(win)
Texas A&M -20.5 Iowa St.(loss)
Boise St. -31 Air Force(loss)
Fresno St. +10.5 Nevada(win)
WKy +3.5 LaLa(win)
Utah +3 Cal(loss)
Toledo -17.5 Miami(win)
Rice +10.5 Tulsa(loss)
Vandy -10.5 Army(win)
UTEP -7 Colorado St.(win)
Mich St. +8 Wisc (win)

7-9-2
46-52-3

Rangers in Six/What the hell are the Raiders doing?

Before the season, I picked Sox/Braves.  That did not work out.

Before the playoffs, I picked Phils/Yanks.  That did not work out.

But I thought the third best team in the playoffs was Texas, and regardless of how the deciding Tigers/Yanks game turned out, I was going to move to Texas winning the ALCS.  They were a good team in the regular season, and are now a good team playing well; power bats and bullpen is a good formula for post season success, and that's Texas.  They're better at every phase than St Louis - better bats, better gloves, better arms.  You have to take Texas.

Which doesn't mean they'll win; the Cards have the best bat (Pujols, obviously) and the best arm (Carpenter, whose matchup advantage against Wilson is healthy) and each of the Rangers advantages previously named is slight (except for defense, the Rangers are solidly better with the glove).  I haven't looked at the odds, but were the Rangers' price excessive given the relative closeness of the squads that wouldn't surprise.

If you were looking at each game, saying Carpenter's two games are the only ones in which you'd favor St Louis makes sense, and therefore Rangers in 6 makes sense.  Texas had a 10 game regular season pythag advantage and the Cards are sub 90; if you're picking, you're picking Texas.  I can't think of a rooting side here; I dislike the Rangers BushFamily/Nolan Ryan/Texas sensibility, and like all right thinking baseball fans, I find LaRussa an irritant and generally look to root against the less deserving World Series entrants.  As a Giants fan, perhaps a Rangers win adds to our success from last year, given that we would have beaten the team good enough to return and win the following year.  That's enough of an argument for me to say I'm for the Rangers.

A Rangers win would rank them as the 56th best World Champion ever, between the Reds team that beat the Black Sox and the Dodgers team that won in the strike shortened year.

Unrelated.  I like Carson Palmer; he's the best USC quarterback I've ever seen.  But two number ones is absolute madness for a guy on the wrong side of the hill.  Matt Hasselbeck was free talent in the offseason; you can't give up two ones for Palmer.

What's the price for Andrew Luck?  Let's say its the Colts picking first with a returning Peyton Manning.  How many number ones do you need to get that pick?

3?  Would three do it?  How about two ones and two twos?

Would you rather pay 2 ones for Palmer or 3 ones for Luck?  How about 4?  Your initial thought is "no one is trading that top pick next year" - and your next thought it "no one is trading four number one draft picks for anyone".

But if you're the Raiders, willing to trade 2 ones for Palmer, you have to be willing to trade 3 ones (and maybe more) for Luck.

The 200 Greatest Major League Baseball Players of All Time, 2012 Ed. 161-170

The previous ten is here.

161. Wee Willie Keeler 1892-10 RF Orioles/Superbas/Highlanders
         59.15
         .335/.389/.451
         OPS+ 126
         PA=9600
         MVPQ=none

162. Jake Beckley 1B 1888-07 Pirates/Reds
        58.95
        .292/.349/.490
        OPS+ 125
        PA=10,500
        MVPQ=none

163. Vladimir Guerrero RF 1996-  Expos/Angels
        58.8
        .314/.377/.548
        OPS+140
        PA=9050
        MVPQ=none

164. Bobby Doerr 2B 1937-51 Red Sox
        58.55
        .279/.344/.483
        OPS+115
        PA=8000
        MVPQ=none

165. John Olerud 1B 1989-05 Blue Jays/Mariners
        58.5
        .296/.399/.471
        OPS+ 128
        PA=9050
        MVPQ=1993, 1998

166. Joe Gordon 2B Yankees 1938-50 Yankees
        58.45
        .269/.346/.513
        OPS+120
        PA=6500
        MVPQ=1942

167. Ducky Medwick  1932-48 LF Cardinals
        58.25
        .315/.358/.555
        OPS+134
        PA=8100
        MVPQ=1936, 1937

168. Jim Bunning RHP 1955-71 Tigers/Phillies
        58.25
        ERA+114
        229-176
        IP=3750
        MVPQ=1965, 1966, 1967

169. Richie Ashburn CF 1948-62 Phillies
        57.9
        .318/.405/.405
        OPS+ 111
        PA=9700
        MVPQ=1958

170. Joe Jackson LF 1908-20 Indians/White Sox
        57.85
        .343/.410/.592
         OPS+169
        PA=5700
        MVPQ=1911, 1912

In this section, we have Bunning, the first player of the 40 on the list so far with 3 MVPQ seasons; Jackson/Medwick/Olerud join the group who have two.  Jackson adds to that the best bat we've seen so far, a 169 OPS+ and my favorite pet adjusted slash, a 3/4/5 (joining Berkman and Flick in that group).  Jackson also has fewer than 6000 plate appearances, the fewest on the board so far - making him the best per game player on the list to date.  No Elite seasons (10 wins above replacement) in this group, Rusie/Giambi are still the only members of that club.

So, where do we stand a fifth of the way through the list?

C King Kelly
-clearly the best catcher with his .500 career adjusted slugging percentage

1B Hank Greenberg
     Jason Giambi
-no change at first base; Olerud had two MVPQ seasons, but runs smack into Giambi having a better top end, a better overall bat, and almost as much value in a thousand fewer plate appearances.  They both sit behind Greenberg, as he had a better bat than both and a couple thousand fewer plate appearances than Giambi.

2B Joe Gordon
-putting Gordon in direct comparison with Doerr gets the former on the team; Gordon had a better top end, a better bat (.513 career adjusted slugging from second base) and almost identical career value in 1500 fewer plate appearances.

No one at either short or third is in this conversation yet.

LF Ducky Medwick
-2 MVPQ seasons and a career adjusted slugging of .555.

RF Joe Jackson
      RF Elmer Flick
-Jackson's the best player in this first 40.  He's got 2 MVPQ seasons, a career slashline of 3/4/5, and accumulated his value in fewer than 6000 plate appearances.  Flick's also got a 3/4/5 slash but loses to Jackson on every count.

RHP Amos Rusie
        Dazzy Vance
        Jim Bunning
        Bret Saberhagen

Bunning's the first guy with 3 MVPQ seasons, but his adjusted career ERA isn't special, so that's where I'll slot him.