Three straight weeks over .500. For the season, I'm 31-33-1.
Minnesota +1 Purdue(loss)
Georgia Tech -14.5 Maryland(loss)
Miami (OH) +2 Army(win)
Tennessee +2 Georgia(loss)
Michigan -7.5 Northwestern(win)
2-3
33-35-1
Occupy Lake Worth
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Consider, if you are free and live in south Florida, Saturday, October 8th, 10 AM, Bryant Park in Lake Worth.
I Pick Every NFL Game in 2011 - Week 5
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
I'm below .500 against the spread in each of the last two weeks; but for the season am still 36-26-2 ATS, and 46-18 straight up. As will be the case going forward, my schedule requires I make an initial post Wednesday, but I'm almost certain to return Friday to make some changes.
Colts -2.5 KC(loss/loss)
Arizona +3 Minnesota(Vikes win game)(loss/win)
Bills+3 Eagles(win/win)
Houston -6 Oakland(loss/loss)
NO -6 Carolina(loss/win)
Bengals +2.5 Jags(Jags win game)(win/loss)
Titans +3.5 Steelers(Steelers win game)(loss/win)
NYG -9.5 Seattle(NYG straight up smells like a suicide play)(that was a bad smell, loss/loss)
Niners -3 TB(win/win)
NYJ +9 NE (Patriots win game)(push/win)
Den +4 SD (loss/loss)
GB -6 Atl(win/win)
Det -6 Chi (win/win)
ATS: 5-7-1, 41-33-3
SU: 8-5, 54-23
Colts -2.5 KC(loss/loss)
Arizona +3 Minnesota(Vikes win game)(loss/win)
Bills+3 Eagles(win/win)
Houston -6 Oakland(loss/loss)
NO -6 Carolina(loss/win)
Bengals +2.5 Jags(Jags win game)(win/loss)
Titans +3.5 Steelers(Steelers win game)(loss/win)
NYG -9.5 Seattle(NYG straight up smells like a suicide play)(that was a bad smell, loss/loss)
Niners -3 TB(win/win)
NYJ +9 NE (Patriots win game)(push/win)
Den +4 SD (loss/loss)
GB -6 Atl(win/win)
Det -6 Chi (win/win)
ATS: 5-7-1, 41-33-3
SU: 8-5, 54-23
The 200 Greatest Major League Baseball Players of All Time, 2012 Ed. 191-200
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
The introduction, including methodology, is here.
191. Buddy Bell 3B 1972-89 Indians/Rangers
193. Andy Pettitte LHP 1995-2010 Yankees
55.2
212-185
ERA+ 117
IP: 3000
MVPQ=none
194. Bret Saberhagen RHP 1984-01 Royals
54.95
188-113
ERA+ 126
IP: 2500
MVPQ=1989
195. Bernie Williams CF 1991-06 Yankees
54.85
.296/.381/.477
OPS+ 125
PA: 9000
MVPQ=none
196. Hank Greenberg 1B 1930-47 Tigers
54.6
.294/.386/.616
OPS+ 158
PA: 6100
MVPQ=1937
197. Jesse Burkett 1890-05 Spiders LF
54.4
OPS+ 140
.320/.407/.490
PA: 9600
MVPQ: 1901
200. Bobby Bonds RF Giants 1968-81
53.85
.272/.360/.513
OPS+ 129
PA: 8100
MVPQ=none
It's a Giants cluster at the edge of the rankings, with Jack Clark/Bill Terry just outside and Bobby Bonds manning the gates, and there's a whole gaggle of Yankees at the top of this section.
Let's talk about the bats. Greenberg has the best we've seen so far, the first with an OPS+ over 150 and a translated slugging over .600. He only had 2/3 of the plate appearances of Stargell, which accounts for his depressed value. But Greenberg's the best of the position players on the list so far. Burkett also had an MVPQ season and almost gets to my favorite translated slashline, a 3/4/5 - missing just 10 slugging points.
Saberhagen/Sabathia/Steib all have approximately the same ERA+; Sabes is the only one with an MVPQ season; obviously Sabathia will continue to accumulate more value, but he's only 200 IP behind Saberhagen right now. Let's say Saberhagen is the best pitcher on the list because of that one big year.
So - if I'm starting my baseball team (as opposed to measuring how much value they accumulated in their careers) my all time team right now would have two members:
1B Greenberg (the OPS+ of 150, the translated slugging of .600 and the MVPQ season)
RHP Saberhagen (the MVPQ season)
Onto the next ten.
191. Buddy Bell 3B 1972-89 Indians/Rangers
WAR+WARP/2= 55.4
Translated BA/OBP/SLG: .284/.348/.428
OPS+ 109
PA: 10,000
MVPQ=none
192. CC Sabathia LHP Indians 2001-
55.35
179-121
ERA+ 125
IP: 2300
MVPQ=none
Translated BA/OBP/SLG: .284/.348/.428
OPS+ 109
PA: 10,000
MVPQ=none
192. CC Sabathia LHP Indians 2001-
55.35
179-121
ERA+ 125
IP: 2300
MVPQ=none
193. Andy Pettitte LHP 1995-2010 Yankees
55.2
212-185
ERA+ 117
IP: 3000
MVPQ=none
194. Bret Saberhagen RHP 1984-01 Royals
54.95
188-113
ERA+ 126
IP: 2500
MVPQ=1989
195. Bernie Williams CF 1991-06 Yankees
54.85
.296/.381/.477
OPS+ 125
PA: 9000
MVPQ=none
196. Hank Greenberg 1B 1930-47 Tigers
54.6
.294/.386/.616
OPS+ 158
PA: 6100
MVPQ=1937
197. Jesse Burkett 1890-05 Spiders LF
54.4
OPS+ 140
.320/.407/.490
PA: 9600
MVPQ: 1901
198. Zack Wheat LF Dodgers 1909-27
54.25
.302/.360/.487
OPS+ 129
54.25
.302/.360/.487
OPS+ 129
PA: 10,000
MVPQ=none
199. Robin Ventura 3B White Sox 1989-04
54.2
.273/.367/.450
OPS+ 114
PA: 8300
MVPQ=none
MVPQ=none
199. Robin Ventura 3B White Sox 1989-04
54.2
.273/.367/.450
OPS+ 114
PA: 8300
MVPQ=none
200. Bobby Bonds RF Giants 1968-81
53.85
.272/.360/.513
OPS+ 129
PA: 8100
MVPQ=none
It's a Giants cluster at the edge of the rankings, with Jack Clark/Bill Terry just outside and Bobby Bonds manning the gates, and there's a whole gaggle of Yankees at the top of this section.
Let's talk about the bats. Greenberg has the best we've seen so far, the first with an OPS+ over 150 and a translated slugging over .600. He only had 2/3 of the plate appearances of Stargell, which accounts for his depressed value. But Greenberg's the best of the position players on the list so far. Burkett also had an MVPQ season and almost gets to my favorite translated slashline, a 3/4/5 - missing just 10 slugging points.
Saberhagen/Sabathia/Steib all have approximately the same ERA+; Sabes is the only one with an MVPQ season; obviously Sabathia will continue to accumulate more value, but he's only 200 IP behind Saberhagen right now. Let's say Saberhagen is the best pitcher on the list because of that one big year.
So - if I'm starting my baseball team (as opposed to measuring how much value they accumulated in their careers) my all time team right now would have two members:
1B Greenberg (the OPS+ of 150, the translated slugging of .600 and the MVPQ season)
RHP Saberhagen (the MVPQ season)
Onto the next ten.
The 200 Greatest Major League Baseball Players of All Time, 2012 Edition.
Monday, October 3, 2011
The 2011 version of this list is here.
In the latest incarnation of this list, we're combining two numbers - the Baseball-Reference version of WAR and Clay Davenport's version of WARP3. Each is designed to give the number of wins a player earned in his career above a freely available replacement player. So - if my career WAR was 50, that means I'm David Wells (50.1) or Doc Gooden (49.9). I'll take WAR; I'll take WARP - I'll divide by 2 - leaving you with the number of wins that player was responsible for over the course of his career above freely available talent.
(B-R WAR)+(CD WARP3)/2=the metric we're using to rank the players here.
Why the B-Ref WAR and not the Fangraphs WAR? The historical ability to measure UZR (the fangraphs defensive metric) isn't at the level of reliability of the B-Ref metric.
Why Davenport's WARP and not Baseball Prospectus? When BP overhauled WARP for its most recent incarnation, they stopped at 1950.
So - I'm slapping the numbers together (Davenport doesn't have a top WARP ever list, so its entirely possible I'm missing people) and coming up with the top 200 players of all time.
It's a career value list - but I'm including adjusted OPS/ERA and translated OPS/ERA numbers to get a measure of yearly productivity.
As in previous builds of this list, I'll go 10 at a time.
Here's who just missed - this is the bar that must be cleared for inclusion on the list.
201. (tie)
Jack Clark 53.65
Jose Cruz 53.65
Bill Terry 53.65
204. (tie)
Mickey Cochrane 53.6
Dave Stieb 53.6
Clark never had what I call a "Most Valuable Player Quality" year, that's a year where his combined WAR/WARP hit 16 (meaning, if you divided by two, 8 wins above replacement - and that's all an MVP is, 8 wins above replacement). His best year was an 11.8 in '78 (meaning, at his very best, Clark gave his team a little less than 6 wins more than a guy they could have found on the waiver wire). His career OPS+ was 137 (average is 100, so his bat was 37% better than average) and his translated slashline was .277/.391/.527 (his career BA/OBP/SLG adjusted for era and ballpark).
Cruz also never had a MVPQ season, his best year was '84 (13.6, meaning his best was better than Clark's best; incidentally, Jose Cruz was 36 years old in '84.) Cruz didn't have Clark's bat, his OPS+ was 120; his translated slash is .303/.373/.473. Cruz is a legit career .300 hitter, but Clark had a higher OBP and a significant advantage in slugging, making him a better offensive player. Cruz was a better defensive player. It took Cruz 700 more plate appearances to reach the same value as Clark. Cruz had about 8900 PA, Clark about 8200.
Terry had only 7100, so his value was accrued in significantly fewer plate appearances than either Cruz or Clark, and its reasonable to immediately think of him as a better player. His OPS+ was 136, just about the same as Clark's; and you can see that his slash only significantly varies from Jack's in batting average: .324/.384/.528, giving him a minor edge - you'd rather have a single than a walk, given its greater chance of advancing a baserunner an extra base. Knowing that Terry had the same value as Clark and Cruz - but in much less time, you'd be right in thinking that he must have been a better player at his best than were they; Terry had an MVPQ season, 1930 (16.3). Terry's in the Hall of Fame, neither Cruz nor Clark joins him, and you can see why that might be.
Note - I'm a Giants fan, so seeing that neither Clark nor Terry makes this list of the 200 greatest baseball players of all time should be some evidence of my objectivity in putting together this list.
These are regular season numbers only. My apologies for not mentioning that previously.
Cochrane's value was in even fewer plate appearances, only 6200; so he only played less than 75% of Cruz's career to accumulate the same value. He's a catcher, giving him significantly more defensive value than anyone already discussed, so you'd expect he'd have less bat, his OPS+ was 128, his slash was .289/.387/.465 - meaning he was a better bat, by a little, than Cruz (who played some center, giving him more defensive value than the corner OF Clark, but not as much as the catcher Cochrane). No MVPQ seasons for Cochrane (his best year, 13.5, was '32 - one of the areas of evaluation where WAR trails WARP is in the defensive value of catchers; subjectively, I'd tick every catcher up a little bit as you look at the list).
And finally, the one pitcher who just misses our list - Stieb. No OPS or translated slashline for Steib, instead it's ERA+ (his was 123, making him 23% better than the average pitcher) and his translated career record was 177-146 (not his actual record, the record he would have had normalizing for run support). Stieb missed on an MVPQ season in '84 (his best, 14.9). Stieb threw about 2900 innings.
And that's 201-5. All essentially the same value for their careers, worth 53+ wins. At their best - the best was Terry, the only one who had an MVPQ year. And per season, the best player was Cochrane.
So - coming up next, players 200-191.
In the latest incarnation of this list, we're combining two numbers - the Baseball-Reference version of WAR and Clay Davenport's version of WARP3. Each is designed to give the number of wins a player earned in his career above a freely available replacement player. So - if my career WAR was 50, that means I'm David Wells (50.1) or Doc Gooden (49.9). I'll take WAR; I'll take WARP - I'll divide by 2 - leaving you with the number of wins that player was responsible for over the course of his career above freely available talent.
(B-R WAR)+(CD WARP3)/2=the metric we're using to rank the players here.
Why the B-Ref WAR and not the Fangraphs WAR? The historical ability to measure UZR (the fangraphs defensive metric) isn't at the level of reliability of the B-Ref metric.
Why Davenport's WARP and not Baseball Prospectus? When BP overhauled WARP for its most recent incarnation, they stopped at 1950.
So - I'm slapping the numbers together (Davenport doesn't have a top WARP ever list, so its entirely possible I'm missing people) and coming up with the top 200 players of all time.
It's a career value list - but I'm including adjusted OPS/ERA and translated OPS/ERA numbers to get a measure of yearly productivity.
As in previous builds of this list, I'll go 10 at a time.
Here's who just missed - this is the bar that must be cleared for inclusion on the list.
201. (tie)
Jack Clark 53.65
Jose Cruz 53.65
Bill Terry 53.65
204. (tie)
Mickey Cochrane 53.6
Dave Stieb 53.6
Clark never had what I call a "Most Valuable Player Quality" year, that's a year where his combined WAR/WARP hit 16 (meaning, if you divided by two, 8 wins above replacement - and that's all an MVP is, 8 wins above replacement). His best year was an 11.8 in '78 (meaning, at his very best, Clark gave his team a little less than 6 wins more than a guy they could have found on the waiver wire). His career OPS+ was 137 (average is 100, so his bat was 37% better than average) and his translated slashline was .277/.391/.527 (his career BA/OBP/SLG adjusted for era and ballpark).
Cruz also never had a MVPQ season, his best year was '84 (13.6, meaning his best was better than Clark's best; incidentally, Jose Cruz was 36 years old in '84.) Cruz didn't have Clark's bat, his OPS+ was 120; his translated slash is .303/.373/.473. Cruz is a legit career .300 hitter, but Clark had a higher OBP and a significant advantage in slugging, making him a better offensive player. Cruz was a better defensive player. It took Cruz 700 more plate appearances to reach the same value as Clark. Cruz had about 8900 PA, Clark about 8200.
Terry had only 7100, so his value was accrued in significantly fewer plate appearances than either Cruz or Clark, and its reasonable to immediately think of him as a better player. His OPS+ was 136, just about the same as Clark's; and you can see that his slash only significantly varies from Jack's in batting average: .324/.384/.528, giving him a minor edge - you'd rather have a single than a walk, given its greater chance of advancing a baserunner an extra base. Knowing that Terry had the same value as Clark and Cruz - but in much less time, you'd be right in thinking that he must have been a better player at his best than were they; Terry had an MVPQ season, 1930 (16.3). Terry's in the Hall of Fame, neither Cruz nor Clark joins him, and you can see why that might be.
Note - I'm a Giants fan, so seeing that neither Clark nor Terry makes this list of the 200 greatest baseball players of all time should be some evidence of my objectivity in putting together this list.
These are regular season numbers only. My apologies for not mentioning that previously.
Cochrane's value was in even fewer plate appearances, only 6200; so he only played less than 75% of Cruz's career to accumulate the same value. He's a catcher, giving him significantly more defensive value than anyone already discussed, so you'd expect he'd have less bat, his OPS+ was 128, his slash was .289/.387/.465 - meaning he was a better bat, by a little, than Cruz (who played some center, giving him more defensive value than the corner OF Clark, but not as much as the catcher Cochrane). No MVPQ seasons for Cochrane (his best year, 13.5, was '32 - one of the areas of evaluation where WAR trails WARP is in the defensive value of catchers; subjectively, I'd tick every catcher up a little bit as you look at the list).
And finally, the one pitcher who just misses our list - Stieb. No OPS or translated slashline for Steib, instead it's ERA+ (his was 123, making him 23% better than the average pitcher) and his translated career record was 177-146 (not his actual record, the record he would have had normalizing for run support). Stieb missed on an MVPQ season in '84 (his best, 14.9). Stieb threw about 2900 innings.
And that's 201-5. All essentially the same value for their careers, worth 53+ wins. At their best - the best was Terry, the only one who had an MVPQ year. And per season, the best player was Cochrane.
So - coming up next, players 200-191.
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