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The Weekly Tendown September 18-24 2011

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Dear Internet:



Here was my Larry David moment.

I gave my final exams this week; at the end of my Government exam Wednesday afternoon, with approximately 3 students left, a middle aged (meaning, he and I are probably the same age) African-American student with whom I have no particular familiarity other than he has taken a couple of my courses approached the front with his completed exam in hand.

When students approach to turn in their finals, my policy is to let them lead whatever dance we're going to do.

Yes, I have a policy for even the most mundane of professional interactions.  That's how I get down.

Some students want to thank me for the course; I reply by thanking them for their effort.

Some students want to tell me they'll see me next quarter for a different course; I reply that I'll look forward to it.

Some students want to quickly hand me the paper and run out of the room; I say thank you and let them flee to freedom.

Some want to shake hands.  So we do that.

Now, as this particular student approached, I reached out my left hand (I'm right handed) partially in a stretch, as I was (and am, always am) tired, partially to take the exam from him.

He didn't read the stretch that way however.  He read it as my initiating a 1970s style soul shake as if, looking at him, I saw Freddie Boom Boom Washington.



It was awkward. Awkward because I did not expect it; awkward because it was with my left hand; awkward  because my opportunities for that specific type of contact are limited these days to my monthly breakfasts with Oscar Gamble.



Moreover, my clear sense was the student was of the belief that I had initiated the shake; it wasn't just that a black man wanted to say goodbye to me in an unaccustomed way; it was that - I believe in his head, I was choosing, really out of nowhere, to inject some type of racially tinted gesture into the end of our professional transaction.  And this is significantly worse than the "I'm cool, right" nod that white men will often do to black men in passing, a nod that you never know the propriety of - is the nod a discriminatory head movement; am I segregating my casual interactions?  It was that - but it was endless, seemingly minutes of a convoluted handshake, and my growing sense that the student thought this was my idea.

The following morning, my last student in another exam was a different middle aged African American man.

As he approached, I quickly stuck out my right hand for a firm handshake.  One pump and we're on our way.  

I think I was looking for a make good; I think I was saying "hey black guys; I didn't lead that soul shake - I was the bottom - I was the bottom; I shake everyone's hand the same way - I'm an equal opportunity handshaker!  I didn't lead that soul shake!"

Keep in mind, no one saw either of the two handshakes.  And that these were two different guys.

Today's my 41st birthday.  Each year more awkward than the previous.

Here's Tendown 95.

1. The Great Emancipator?  
Here's a photograph I took of a magazine cover yesterday.



Here's Cris Collinsworth.



I'm willing to say right now that Cris Collinsworth is the reincarnation of our 16th President.

Consider the following:

It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt.

"Look how Manning tells his center it's time to snap in all this noise...he just taps him on the hind-end there..


And in the end it is not the years in your life that count, it's the life in your years.

It was just one of those playground lollipoppers.

I defy anyone to spot a difference.


2. No Pun Intended
What's the analogue to "no pun intended"?

No pun intended is a phrase that, almost always, is used to mean exactly the opposite of what it says.

It's not like the word ironic, which is very often used incorrectly.  People mean "that's an unfortunate coincidence" instead of "this is the opposite of what one would expect would happen in this situation."

But "no pun intended" is almost always used to mean "hey, I just made a pun, please note my pun; if you consider the thing I just said, there was some type of wordplay."

The phrase no pun intended is almost always used ironically.  It almost always means "pun intended."

3. That Dude Died A Week Ago



On my way to work this week, I saw a car with a Memorial Decal, you know, like you see.

The date of death was the end of August.  Not the very end, but in the high 20s.  That means it was about 3 weeks from the day the guy died to my seeing the decal on the car.  And it was a young death, someone in his twenties, so it wasn't like the way news organizations will have obits ready for people who might reasonably die

So - at what point did the owner of the car get that decal?  Driving home from the hospital?  It had to be a helluva quick turnaround time.  People grieve in their own way; the car decal just seems to me a curious choice to make in the immediate reaches of young death.

4. Incognito
Did you know there are a disproportionate number of people who marry others who share their first initials?

Did you know a disproportionate number of people get divorced in their fourth year of marriage?

The reasons for a number of decisions that seem, on an individual level, to be matters of choice (whether one commits a crime, ones career) actually are related to brain function.

I've become increasingly interested in neuroscience; a particularly accessible account of the way your internal hardware impacts your choices is David Eagleman's Incognito, which I read this week and would recommend.

I'd also recommend Zooey Deschanel's New Girl, which may have been the best of all the sitcoms from this week, and easily the best pilot I've seen so far this season.

And a couple of sports pieces, this oral history of the Leonard/Hagler fight; probably my favorite sporting event not featuring one of my teams (professional wrestling excluded for purposes of that discussion) and Joe Posnanski's look at Bill James, whose early 80s work was the crucial piece in the paradigmatic shift in understanding baseball about which the book and now film Moneyball is centered and Taylor Branch, explaining that college sports is a plantation.

I wrote this week.  My all time 45 Man NFL roster is here; this week's NFL picks (I've been rolling) are here; my college picks from Saturday were here; and the latest chapter in my wrestling Counterfactual is here.

5. The Goldilocks Fallacy



I had dinner with my mother and my Ladygal last night.  We each had hamburgers.

My Ladygal ordered hers medium well, the way she does; my mother medium rare.

I ordered third - so I picked medium.  I Goldilocksed the order.

Hard not to - now had I picked second or first, I may have made a different choice - but we have a drive to uncritical moderation that I'm going to call the Goldilocks Fallacy.  The next time you or someone you know is tempted to say "well, the right answer is somewhere in the middle" not based on evidence that the middle is the superior resting place for this particular argument - but instead on some magical power given to moderation - that's the Goldilocks Fallacy.

Some say global warming is real - but then I hear it's not.  Probably they're both lying a little bit.

Some say the way out of our economic condition is government spending to stimulate demand.  Others say we need austere measures which will spur job growth.  Probably the truth is somewhere in the middle.

That guy says 1+1=2, but that guy says it's 6.  I guess that means it's 4.

Goldilocks Fallacy.

6. Class Warfare
As perhaps you noted, Obama taking my "tax millionaires" proposal got him fired upon with charges of class warfare this week.

Bill O'Reilly said if his taxes went up - he might have to quit.

I assume that's a threat of some type.

If you can think of a single millionaire who would quit if his marginal income tax rate went from 35 to 39% who would actually be missed by society, you let me know.

Elizabeth Warren, hopefully the next US Senator from Massachusetts, responded here, talking about government the way i do with my students, even the ones with whom I share awkward handshakes.


You built a factory out there? Good for you. But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police-forces and fire-forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn’t have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory — and hire someone to protect against this — because of the work the rest of us did.
“Now look, you built a factory and it turned into something terrific, or a great idea. God bless — keep a big hunk of it. But part of the underlying social contract is, you take a hunk of that and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.”
Last week, in my discussion about the self professed libertarian ethos of Northwood University, I facetiously mentioned that I assume it doesn't accept student loans, given its belief that people rise and fall of their own merits, independent of government intrusion.  Like the school I work for, Northwood does not have a business absent those loans, the evidence for which is here.  That's always a point I look to draw in class, particularly when there's a discussion about drug testing those getting government assistance; college students are ready to drug test someone getting food stamps or even unemployment assistance.  They're less ready for a random drug test for someone getting a student loan.  And I'm guessing the future captains of industry educated at Northwood would be unlikely to support drug testing for defense contractors or professional sports owners who have taxpayer built arenas.  I wonder if the executives at Northwood, whose salaries and stock options depend on the flow of those federally guaranteed loan dollars, would support their own random drug tests.
The piece you should read this week about class warfare is here, by Richard Wolff.

Since the end of the Great Depression - and especially since the 1970s - the class warfare waged by business and its allies (most conservatives in both parties) was successful. For example, at the end of World War II, for every dollar Washington raised in taxes on individuals, it raised $1.50 in taxes on business profits. In contrast, today, for every dollar Washington gets in taxes on individuals, it gets 25 cents in taxes on business. Business and its allies successfully shifted most of its federal tax burden onto individuals.
Over the same period, the tax rates on the richest Americans fell from 91 percent in the 1950s and 1960s, and 70 percent in the 1970s to the current low rate of 35 percent. The richest Americans won that spectacular tax cut. Middle- and lower-income Americans won no such cuts, while paying a higher proportion of their income for Social Security that the rich were required to do.
In plain English, the last 50 years saw a massive shift of the burden of federal taxation from business to individuals and from rich individuals to everyone else. Class war policies, yes, but a war that victimized the vast majority of working Americans.

7. If You Cut Taxes, Will Unemployment Fall?
No.  From Colbert:
And taking a broader view.
In 1964, federal taxation as a share of the economy stood at 17.5 percent, while unemployment was at 5.2 percent.


Tax levels rose sharply, to 19.7 percent of the economy in 1969, while unemployment fell steadily, to 3.5 percent.


In 1981, President Ronald Reagan again slashed taxes. Taxation fell from 19.6 percent of the economy that year to 17.4 percent in 1983. The unemployment rate, however, rose over that period, from 7.6 percent to 9.6 percent. By 1989, taxation had drifted upward again, to 18.3 percent of the economy, but unemployment had fallen to 5.3 percent.


When President Bill Clinton raised taxes in 1993, the unemployment rate dropped, from 6.9 to 6.1 percent, and kept falling each of the next seven years. When President Bush cut taxes in 2001, the unemployment rate rose, from 4.7 to 5.8 percent.


Stop listening to right ring math.  They think 1+1=6.

8. The Best Moment From the Emmy Awards





9. Eliminated.


Here is, not ironically as the productive end of my team's season often arrives right around this time of the year, the headline I woke up to the morning of my 41st birthday:


             For Giants, season hits its darkest moment


Don't listen when they tell you it was injuries.  It was roster construction.  We got career years from Torres and Huff last season at leadoff and cleanup and pretended they'd happen again.  They didn't and we kept running them (especially Huff) out long after it was clear they were who they were.

Our World Series win was terrific.  But it's a fluke.  Our way of thinking of roster construction is as pre-Moneyball as one will find in MLB, and we have failed (not just didn't win the World Series, but failed) far more often than not under that strategy.  If the trade is we won the World Series and are now stuck picking up each season's version of Orlando Cabrera based on what he did 8 years before - I guess that's the trade, but if I were in the ownership group, 2011 would be the last season for Sabean and Bochy.

10. Thanks.
 

That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time.  If there is a next time...

Your pal,

Jim

2011 College Football Picks, Week 4

Thursday, September 22, 2011

I had my first week just nudging over .500 in Week 3, but for the season remain 17-22-1

Michigan -10.5 SD St.(win)
Pitt +7.5 ND(win)
Georgia -9.5 Ole Miss(win)
Maryland -8.5 Temple(loss)
Ball St. +4 Army(win)
ECarolina -14 UAB(loss)
Ohio St. -16.5 Colorado St.(win)
VTech -20.5 Marshall(loss)
Oklahoma St. v. Texas A&M under 69.5(win)
Oregon v. Arizona under 65.5(loss)

6-4
23-26-1

I Pick Every NFL Game in 2011 - Week 3

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

I'm killing it.  Past performance is not necessarily predictive of future success.

Against the spread: 21-9-2.  Straight up: 22-10.

Bengals -3 Niners(loss/loss)
Bills +8.5 NE (NE wins)(win/loss)
Houston+4 NO (NO wins)(loss/win)
Browns -3 Miami(loss/win)
Titans -6.5 Denver(loss/win)
Minn +3.5 Det (Lions win)(win/win)
Jags +3.5 Panthers (Panthers win)(loss/win)
KC +14.5 SD (SD wins, that's my suicide pick)(win/win)
NYJ -3 Oak(loss/loss)
Ravens -4 StL(win/win)
Tampa -1.5 Atlanta(win/win)
Seattle +3.5 Arizona(win/win)
Bears +3.5 Packers (GB wins)(loss/win)
Steelers -10.5 Colts (loss/win)
NYG +7.5 Philly (Eagles win)(win/loss)
Wash +6.5 Dallas (Dallas wins) (win/win)

ATS: 8-8  29-17-2
SU: 12-4  34-14

The Weekly Tendown September 11-17 2011

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Dear Internet:

One of the reasons I like this format is it serves as a marker of time; I like that, theoretically as long as the rivers of electricity flow, one could find this piece and know that the week of September 11-17, 2011 was the week where Scarlett Johansson's phone got hacked and Larry Merchant threatened Floyd Mayweather.  This is my gift to future generations of Tendown scholars.  No need to thank me.

Here's Tendown 94.

1. The Craziest, Most Fact Free Thing You'll Ever Hear a US Senator Say.
There was much wingnut from the Republicans this week, but the item that perhaps you missed came from Rand Paul.

                         The rich are getting richer, but the poor are getting richer even faster.

The right's easier to take when they tell the truth, as Paul's father Ron did at the debate.  If you're uninsured and die, that's sort of just how it goes.  That's right wing health care.  Society has winners and losers and often the losers just die.  You're more likely to die from poverty than homicide.

But the idea that a country that has 46 million people under the poverty line (the poverty line's like 10 grand in income for a single person, and 21 grand for a family of four; the next time you read some right winger say "hey, $250,000 bucks a year isn't that much money"; remember that the poverty line is 21 grand for a family of four) and in which the mass of Americans is falling a little bit further behind every quarter (other than the elderly, and the right is trying its hardest to add them to that statistic also) has a US Senator say the poor are getting rich is gobsmackingly stupid.


 I've sort of liked what we've called the "tea party" movement - because it sometimes allows the real right wing to show its reptilian face.  Tell me "I don't like the minimum wage because if no one is willing to pay you five bucks an hour for what you do, then that's just how life is".  I don't agree with you and I think you're a bad person, but you're not lying to me.  But don't tell me it would be better for poor people to do away with a wage floor.  Tell me "I don't like social security, if you made so little money in your life that you don't have enough saved when you are no longer in the work force, then that's just how life is."  Don't tell me it would be better for the elderly if we didn't have social security.  Don't tell me we have the best health care system in the world.  Tell me "if you're uninsured and can't afford to go to the doctor, then you die and that's how it is." You know, like Ron Paul's campaign manager.

I'm not on your side.  I dislike you.  I believe you are a bad person.

But you're not lying to me.

The left, I think, is honest (the left, not Democrats).  There is a tradeoff that each society makes; if we're going to have a safety net, the revenue for that has to be raised.  If you want health care for all, top notch public education, and an infrastructure that isn't in disrepair, that requires a high top marginal tax rate. There wouldn't be billionaires in the society that I'd advocate.  Strong protection for unions, living wage laws, significant penalties for environmental infractions and consumer fraud, and a court system widely open for plaintiffs will reduce corporate profits.

I prefer that society.  It strikes me it creates a higher quality of life for a greater quantity of people than the one we currently have and significantly greater than the one the right wing advocates.  If you'd prefer to advocate an "every man for himself" society consisting of tramps and billionaires, then okay.  These are not new debates.  They're fine to have.  I'm willing to say the society I prefer isn't as good for rich people as the one you prefer.  But don't tell me the one you prefer is actually better for the poor.  You can't be taken seriously.

2. Does Obama Read Tendown?
So - veteran Tendown readers - here's a quiz.

In two words, the economic proposal advocated by Jividen would be:

_____________        _________________________

The answer, as you've read multiple times in this space is "tax millionaires."  I generally do a poor job speaking in sound bites, not too many things I've ever said would make for a snappy bumper sticker, but were I running for office, that would be the core of my economic message.

Tomorrow, Obama's announcing the following sure to never pass tax proposal.

President Obama on Monday will call for a new minimum tax rate for individuals making more than $1 million a year to ensure that they pay at least the same percentage of their earnings as middle-income taxpayers, according to administration officials. 


You're welcome, America.

3. For Two More Weeks - The World Champion San Francisco Giants
There are 10 games left in the season at the time of this writing.  The Giants are 5 back.  The very most optimistic evaluation of our playoff chances is 3%.  But we have won 7 straight and sliced 4 and a half games off the lead since I waved the white flag two Sundays ago.  If we take another game off the lead today, then its worth a flicker of optimism.  For right now, that we fired our owner this week is the more significant story.

There are also, not coincidentally, 10 games left in the fantasy baseball season - right now, it looks like I'll win my NL only league to continue my championship streak.

In the offseason, you'll get a reworking of my Top 200 baseball players of all time, perhaps an extension of my look at the worst baseball players ever (I'm also considering a look at the worst presidents ever, the gimmick being each president would be on the list) and I'll plug this year's Giants season into my various all time Giants tracking posts.  Right now, for example, we are on pace for a .500 pythagorean season (a significant upgrade from our ranking most of the year, largely due to Beltran hitting almost .500 this month) that would place the 2011 team about the 30th best SFGiants team of all time.

4. What About Posts Already Written?
3 more posts in my look at the all time 45 man rosters for every NFL team; my week 2 NFL picks; my week 3 college football picks; and my Emmy Award picks; all went up this week.

5. This Week in Bachmann
Pick your favorite Michele Bachmann moment from the week:
A. Wall St. Reform is killing the banking industry.
B. The HPV vaccine causes retardation.
Or - a sneaky C.
C. Rick Perry mandated the vaccine be given in Texas because of crony capitalism.

If Michele Bachmann would like to open the door to her fellow Republicans passing legislation that serves their corporate masters, that would be a welcome discussion. For example, the hundreds of millions spent by the insurance industry to fight health care reform.

6. I Live On Tea Party Drive
There's a small stretch of Military Trail in West Palm Beach that you'd find largely unremarkable if you were to drive it.  It's a couple of minutes away from my job and its where my Ladygal used to live. The local Spearmint Rhino is there.  A Popeyes Chicken.  A big and tall clothing store.  And two schools.

Northwood University, which lists as its primary core value:


Core Values Statement

We believe in:
  • the advantages of an entrepreneurial, free-enterprise society.
And here's the "Northwood Idea"

We believe that competitive, productive effort can overcome obstacles, solve problems, and achieve goals; that human beings can make a difference in the world in which they live; that political and economic freedom are of paramount importance in releasing creativity and productivity; that sacrifice--savings--is a necessary prerequisite to progress; that equality of opportunity based on contribution and inequality of reward using the same criteria are not only appropriate, but the necessary conditions; in a system not forced into conformity with some master plan; that it is the differences among us that make us interesting and useful to each other; in the freedom to fail. We must be free to bear the positive and negative consequences of our actions; that in a competitive system, all who participate benefit from it; we dedicate ourselves to the elimination of artificial barriers to equal opportunity for all human beings....


We practice a healthy skepticism of large and powerful government because we think history has clearly demonstrated that such structures move rapidly from being of the people toward being over the people, and freedom is lost in the balance.

Does Ayn Rand have a college?  Yup.  It's on Military Trail in West Palm Beach.  I assume among those "artificial barriers" that should be eliminated are Social Security and the minimum wage.  After all, they are reducing one's "freedom" to die in poverty or without access to health care.

I'll assume, based on their "practice" of skepticism of government that Northwood accepts no federally guaranteed student loan money.

Almost exactly across the street a new private high school has just opened up - it's owned by one of the Koch Brothers.

From 9th grade to graduate school - a generation of right wingers can be raised, all without ever having to leave a couple of mile stretch of Military Trail in south Florida.

7. Will Anyone Try to Take Away Their Right to Vote
Northwood's professed skepticism to "large and powerful government" also must mean an opposition to the range of right wing legislation to suppress voter turnout.

Legislation, incidentally, partially funded by the Koch Brothers.


All told, a dozen states have approved new obstacles to voting. Kansas and Alabama now require would-be voters to provide proof of citizenship before registering. Florida and Texas made it harder for groups like the League of Women Voters to register new voters. Maine repealed Election Day voter registration, which had been on the books since 1973. Five states – Florida, Georgia, Ohio, Tennessee and West Virginia – cut short their early voting periods. Florida and Iowa barred all ex-felons from the polls, disenfranchising thousands of previously eligible voters. And six states controlled by Republican governors and legislatures – Alabama, Kansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Wisconsin – will require voters to produce a government-issued ID before casting ballots. More than 10 percent of U.S. citizens lack such identification, and the numbers are even higher among constituencies that traditionally lean Democratic – including 18 percent of young voters and 25 percent of African-Americans.


Taken together, such measures could significantly dampen the Democratic turnout next year – perhaps enough to shift the outcome in favor of the GOP. "One of the most pervasive political movements going on outside Washington today is the disciplined, passionate, determined effort of Republican governors and legislators to keep most of you from voting next time," Bill Clinton told a group of student activists in July. "Why is all of this going on? This is not rocket science. They are trying to make the 2012 electorate look more like the 2010 electorate than the 2008 electorate" – a reference to the dominance of the Tea Party last year, compared to the millions of students and minorities who turned out for Obama. "There has never been in my lifetime, since we got rid of the poll tax and all the Jim Crow burdens on voting, the determined effort to limit the franchise that we see today."


You now need a valid photo ID to vote in Wisconsin; you can pay 28 dollars to get one at the DMV.

Or - you can get one there for free.  But official policy is to keep that a secret.


The Madison Capital Times today posts a memo from a Wisconsin Department of Transportation executive directing employees not to offer the ID for free:
While you should certainly help customers who come in asking for a free ID to check the appropriate box, you should refrain from offering the free version to customers who do not ask for it.

An employee at a state agency sent an email disdainful of this policy:

REMEMBER TO TELL ANYONE YOU KNOW!! ANYONE!! EVEN IF THEY DON'T NEED THE FREE ID, THEY MAY KNOW SOMEONE THAT DOES!! SO TELL EVERYONE YOU KNOW!!"

And he got fired.

Government can be tyrannical.  True story.  I assume the students at Northwood will be informed.

8. A Comparison You Knew Was Coming.
Rosa Parks = Joe Barry Carroll





The story is here.

The nexus between the 85'-86' Golden St. Warriors and civil rights activism doesn't end there.

Sleepy Floyd is currently a regional vice-chairman of Code Pink.  Lester the Molester Conner is the spokesperson for the National Council of La Raza, and, in a curious twist, Purvis Short was one of the four little girls murdered in the 16th Street Baptist Church bombing in Birmingham in 1963.



9. Moratorium!
Don't ever again say that Madonna constantly "reinvents herself."

I can't take it anymore.  Madonna was once a young woman who dressed provocatively, sang pop songs, and banged Jose Canseco.  Now she is a skinny old lady.  That's how it goes.  Joe DiMaggio once had a 56 game hit streak.  Now he is dead. He did not reinvent himself.  He died.  Madonna will die too one day.  And in her obit, I guarantee you, will be some variation of "constantly reinvented herself".

They've been saying it for two decades.  It's time to stop.  Say anything else you want about Madonna.  Anything at all.  I will not complain.  But moratorium on her being "reinvented."

10. Toilet is Fixed!
View IMG00044.jpg in slide show

There are two toilets in my house.  But for the past few days, only one has worked.

Today, it was fixed.  It was fixed by someone who lives in my house who isn't me.

If you've seen my Ladygal, you know that she is considerably more attractive than I am.  You'd assume she'd be dating a hockey player.  Like Mike Modano for example.



But not only that - she knows how to fix a toilet.  Which, if you know me, you know I do not.  Anyone who has any encounter with me almost certainly is left with the marrow level understanding that I'm a guy who does not know how to fix a toilet.

Several years ago now, I was enrolled on a dating site.  My profile did not say "single white man seeks hockey player girlfriend quality woman who knows how to fix a toilet" but that, in fact, is what I wanted.

That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time, if there is a next time...

Your pal,

Jim

2011 Emmy Award Predictions

Friday, September 16, 2011

I enjoy television.  I enjoy award shows.  Occasionally, I am successful in making predictions about the outcome of television award shows.

The Emmys are Sunday.

Drama: Mad Men
-That would be 4 straight, a significant number.  Boardwalk would be the only other possibility.  Mad Men should win; there is no Breaking Bad in the eligibility period, and there isn't another show in their neighborhood.

Actor: Hamm
-Hamm's never won, Cranston has a hammerlock on the award, but again, no Breaking Bad this year.  The only other possibility is Buscemi.  You may recall I hit both Boardwalk/Buscemi at the Globes.

Actress: Margulies
-She was supposed to win last year, but Sedgwick slipped in and grabbed it away; I'd really strongly prefer Moss, Britton or Enos.

Supporting: Slattery, Martindale
-Actor is a full jump ball; if either Goggins (my preference) or Cumming won, that would not surprise.  You'd take the field over Martindale, but not any of her competitors specifically.

Comedy: Modern Family
-I don't see a circumstance where it doesn't win; Top end 30 Rock remains all by itself qualitatively, Parks is probably the most consistently good week to week.

Actor: Carrell
-Like Hamm, Carrell's never won; like Hamm, he absolutely deserves to win.  There's not another contender.

Actress: Linney
-If you wanted a crazy long odd investment, take Plimpton.  My vote would be Poehler.

Supporting: Burrell/Lynch
-I did give you Stonestreet last year; this year it's Burrell who gets through.  Lynch is easy here.

Reality Comp: Top Chef
-Top Chef ended Race's run last year, I'll say it continues one of its own.  It would get my vote, I think, given that Survivor isn't nominated.

Variety Series: Daily Show
-A lock.

Movie: Mildred Pierce
Actor: Ramirez
Actress: Winslet
Supporting: Pearce/Wood

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