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2011 NFL Predictions.

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

I make predictions.

Historically, I've had success with season long win totals.  Last year, I whipped some sportsbook ass.  I'll put my projected wins first and the current sportsbook total next. Edit - I made my final changes at 6:00 on Thursday, just ahead of kickoff for week one.  Other than moving the Rams to first in the West, it's essentially unchanged since the initial post.

AFC East
1. New England (11, 11.5)
No play here.

2. New York (9, 10)
-You know, the defense slid a little bit last year; they don't get to the quarterback as much as you'd suspect given the bravado.  Right now, you can go under 10 and get even money to do it.  I don't love it, but a small investment on the Jets to go under 10 makes sense.

3. Miami (7, 7.5)
-I may kick them back to 7-9.  I keep swapping between the Fish going 7-9 and the Pats going 12-4.

4. Buffalo (7, 5.5)
-There's an over play here.  I may wind up with Steve Johnson on all 3 fantasy teams.

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh (12, 10.5)
-Go in.  7 of my Top 100 players in the NFL are Steelers.

2. Baltimore (9, 10)
-10 looks just as good as 9.  It's Saturday night as I type my notes into the blog; I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind until Thursday morning.  I might bump the Ravens to 10.  I'll need to find someone to drop a win. I don't think they get to 11 wins though, if you feel like playing Baltimore, go under.  I'm keeping them at 9.

3. Cleveland (8, 7)
Cleveland has a particularly soft first half of the schedule; what I want you to do is look for a first 8 games win total, see if you can get 3.5, then go in.  You should play over the 7, just don't freak out in December.

4. Cincinnati (6, 5.5)
No play.

AFC South
1. Houston (10, 9)
No play

2. Jacksonville (7, 6.5)
A small over makes sense; do you recall a team cutting its starting quarterback twice right before the start of the season like the Jags have done, first with Leftwich and now Garrard?

3. Indianapolis (6, off)
-If you can find a book taking Colts action, look to play the under. Let me be the first person to offer the following "Remember how the Spurs got Duncan" scenario.  Manning misses the season.  The Colts go 3-13 and get the top pick.  I've already written the sign "If the Colts Get Luck, We Riot."

I have a bit of a man crush on Andrew Luck.  I'm willing to carve the Canton bust right now. 

4. Tennessee (5, 6.5)
-Take a six win team, add a coaching change, quarterback change and the lockout - throw in Britt's legal troubles and Johnson's holdout, and 7 wins seems long to me, and that's what it takes to beat you.  Hasselbeck's not a good quarterback anymore, and if they throw some white flag starts Locker's way late in the season, those are losses too.  I do not like this team.  If someone's going to challenge Carolina for the number one pick, it's Tennessee.

AFC West
1. San Diego (11, 10)
-10 is a push, and in this division, I don't think SD wins less than ten games.  A small over makes sense.

2. Kansas City (7, 7.5)
-Under.  Tougher schedule.

3. Denver (7, 6)
-Maybe a small over: I don't think Orton goes 5-11.

4. Oakland (6, 6.5)
-A tiny under.  Especially if you can get the number at 7.

This would make the playoffs:

1. Steelers
2. Chargers
3. Patriots
4. Texans
5. Ravens
6. Jets

I'll take the Chargers to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the AFC Championship.

NFC East
1. Philadelphia (11, 10.5)
Yeah, you can play that. Over,

2. Dallas (9, 9)
I don't think they're liable to get 10.  Small under


3. New York (7, 9)
Under.


4. Washington (6, 6)
I really, really don't think it's likely they go 7-9...okay, you can make a small play here.  This is another team in line for that top draft pick.

NFC North
1. Green Bay (11, 11.5)
The Pack went 10-6 last year.  2 more wins is a lot of wins.  Small under.

2. Chicago (8, 8)
No play

3. Detroit (8, 8)
No play

4. Minnesota (7, 7)
Nope.

NFC South
1. Atlanta (10, 10)
Nope

2. New Orleans (10, 10)
Nope

3. Tampa (7, 8)
Why you gotta hate me, Vegas?

4. Carolina (6, 4.5)
The Panthers will have an interesting decision to make with the top pick in the 2012 draft.  Hard to get dollar for dollar for Newton, and impossible to deal the pick.  I mean, there isn't a circumstance that I can think of where I'd deal that pick.  I would rather have that pick than lose in the conference title game.  You give me that choice right now, I can either have the top pick, meaning I go 2-14, or go 12-4 and get beat in the conference title, and I want the pick and it isn't close.  Anything short of a Super Bowl appearance is not worth Andrew Luck.  You can play a small over here.

NFC West

1. St. Louis (8, 7.5)

2. Niners (7, 7.5)
No play.

3. Cardinals (7, 7)
-Nope

4. Seattle (6, 6)

So, that makes the playoffs:

1. Philadelphia
2. Atlanta
3. Green Bay
4. Rams
5. New Orleans
6. New York

I'll take the Eagles to beat the Falcons.

That would give me a Chargers/Eagles Super Bowl.  I'll take San Diego. There you go.

The 100 Best Players in the NFL - 2011 edition.

Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Over the summer, NFL Network did a series ranking the Top 100 players in the league, determined by player vote.

This is not by player vote.  As you know, I'm not a player.  I just crush a lot.

It's also not a ranking - these 100 best players in the NFL aren't in qualitative order, they are only grouped by position.  I really don't see a good way to cross-compare positions, even though I pretend to do so sometimes.  And even within the positional groups, I haven't ordered them.  All this is is my list of the 100 best players in the NFL.  I only added one wrinkle, every team is represented.  This is the second of my series of  "Hey, football's back" posts.

QB
Tom Brady NE
Ben Roethlisberger Pitt
Joe Flacco Balt
Peyton Manning Indy
Phillip Rivers SD
Michael Vick Phil
Eli Manning NYG
Tony Romo Dal
Aaron Rodgers GB
Matt Ryan QB
Drew Brees QB
Josh Freeman QB

RB
Rashard Mendenhall Pitt
Ray Rice Balt
Arian Foster Hou
Maurice Jones Drew Jax
Chris Johnson Ten
Jamal Charles KC
Darren McFadden Oak
LeSean McCoy Phil
Adrian Peterson Min
Michael Turner Atl
Frank Gore Niners
Stephen Jackson StL
Peyton Hillis Cle

WR
Mike Wallace Pitt
Andre Johnson Hou
Reggie Wayne Indy
Dwayne Bowe KC
Brandon Lloyd Den
Kenny Britt - Tenn
Vincent Jackson - SD
Calvin Johnson Det
Roddy White Atl
Hakeem Nicks NYG
Larry Fitzgerald Ariz

TE
Antonio Gates SD
Jermichael Finley GB
Vernon Davis - SF
Jason Witten - Dall

OL
Logan Mankins NE
Nick Mangold NYJ
D'Brickashaw Ferguson NYJ
Jake Long Mia
Michael Oher Balt
Joe Thomas Cle
Andrew Whitworth Cin
Marcus McNeill SD
Ryan Clady Den
Chris Snee NYG
Jahri Evans NO

DL
Vince Wilfork NE
Kyle Williams Buf
Haloti Ngata Balt
Dwight Freeney Indy
Robert Mathis Indy
Elvis Dumervill Den
Richard Seymour Oak
Trent Cole Phil
Justin Tuck NYG
Osi Umenyiora NYG
BJ Raji GB
Julius Peppers Chi
Jared Allen Min
Kevin Williams Min
Ndamukong Suh Det
John Abraham Atl
Charles Johnson Car
Justin Smith Niners
Darnell Dockett Ariz
Chris Long StL

LB
Jerod Mayo NE
Cameron Wake Mia
Lawrence Timmons Pitt
LaMarr Woodley Pitt
James Harrison Pitt
Ray Lewis Balt
Terrell Suggs Balt
Mario Williams Hou
DeMeco Ryans Hou
Brian Cushing Hou
Shaun Phillips SD
Tamba Hali KC
DeMarcus Ware Dal
London Fletcher Was
Clay Matthews GB
Patrick Willis Niners

DB
Darrelle Revis NYJ
Troy Polamalu Pitt
Ed Reed Balt
Leon Hall Cin
Jonathan Joseph Hou
Eric Weddle SD
Brandon Flowers KC
Eric Berry KC
Champ Bailey Den
Stanford Routt Oak
Asante Samuel Phil
Nnamdi Asomugha Phil
Earl Thomas Sea

2011 Fantasy Football Top 100

Monday, September 5, 2011

I've got 3 fantasy football drafts coming in the next two days.  My main suggestion is to mock draft from your draft spot - the flow of the draft from position 10 looks very different than position 3.

Here's my top 100 board.

1. Peterson (I have the first pick in my last draft, I'll take Peterson.)
2. Rice (I have the second pick in my second draft, I will take Rice; in the mock for that draft, I did take Rice)
3. Foster
4. LMcCoy
5. Mendenhall (I got Mendenhall with the 12th pick in my draft this morning, which I anticipated, as that's how it worked in my mock.  Mock from your draft slot.  Now, in my mock for the second draft, Mendenhall was still available at pick 23, where I took him, and will again tonight if he's on the board.)
6. CJohnson
7. AJohnson (I got Johnson with the 13th pick on the wraparound.  Again, exactly as it had gone in the mock.     If you've got the back of the order wraparound pick and Johnson's gone, you should pick Roddy White; the top line receivers are shallow. Both White and Johnson were gone in my mock for draft 2 before I got back around to my second round pick. That left me a tough decision with pick 26.)
8. MJD
9. SJax
10. Hillis (Hillis goes lower than this, he almost made it back around to me picking 36th in the third round, he didn't - but if you're picking, say 9th, you can maybe get him in the third round.  Hillis made it all the way back to me with pick 47 in my second mock; that's 20 spots lower than his ADP, do I'm not expecting him to be there tonight, but you can get him much lower than pick ten.)
11. Turner
12. Rivers (I almost got him 36th, I didn't, but in my second draft, the one where I am picking second, I'll pick Rice, then expect him to be around for my second/third picks.  Okay, in the mock for my second draft, Rivers was still on the board, but also on the board was Fitzgerald, and since I didn't get Johnson/White, I decided to lose Rivers, take Fitzgerald, and then take Ben when the draft came back around my way.  I still don't know which is the better decision.)
13. Charles
14. RWhite (I haven't done my mock for the second draft yet, but I might be looking at Rivers/White with the second/third picks)
15. Forte
16. Rodgers
17. Benson - I got Benson 37th this morning, with my 4th round pick, if Rivers is gone before my second pick, I'm likely to go White/Benson.  I went in hoping for Benson at that 37th spot, but he was gone pretty far before that in the mock, so didn't anticipate it.
18. Matthews - I wouldn't pick him before the 4th, he was still available at 36/37 this morning.
19. Vick - people will pay more than this, I won't get either Vick or Rodgers
20. Greene - Benson/Matthews/Greene were all lined up for me at 36/37, I only took one and then got a QB I'll mention in a moment, but in my mock I went Matthews/Greene.
21. Fitzgerald - got him in the mock for my second draft at pick 26.
22. FJones
23. Gore
24. Brees - This is who I took at 36.  My target is really Ben, but I didn't want him until 60/61.  It worked in the mock, but just barely - and if I miss on Ben, I'm not happy with the next step down.  So, with Brees still on the board, I chose to get him here, passing on Matthews/Greene/Felix Jones, rather than sweat it out for Ben.  I think, as it turns out, he still would have been around.
25. Blount
26. Jennings
27. McFadden
28. Brady - Obviously, I won't get Brady.
29. Austin - After having gone RB-WR-QB-RB, you know I have to get best available WR at 60/61, I almost got Austin.
30. CJohnson - I won't get Johnson.
31. Bradshaw - I'm also looking at a 3rd RB, for a flex spot, in 60/61, so I'm filling my board with backs and receivers.  I didn't get Bradshaw either.
32. Ben - My QB strategy is Rivers early and if  it doesn't fit, then Ben.  I've got two drafts left and that's my expectation.  If Rivers is still there in my 3rd, I get him.  If not, I wait until the 6th for Ben.  Took Ben in the 5th, at pick 50 in my second mock.  After passing on Rivers, I wasn't going to wait until pick 71 to see if he was free.  I think I'm leaning toward doing this the other way if I have the dilemma with the real draft, taking Rivers and then scrambling for receivers.
33. Wallace
34. SJohnson - this is who I got with the 60th pick this morning, I was pleased.  In the second mock I got him at 74.
35. Wells - and this is who I got 61st to be my flex.  In the second mock, he was still around at pick 74, but as I had 3 backs on the roster, I took a receiver instead.
36. Nicks
37. Tampa Williams
38. Holmes - This morning, I'm now thinking about 84/85, and one of those picks is going to be my third wideout, Holmes almost made it.
39. VJax
40. Bowe
41. Lloyd - I just missed out getting Lloyd 84th.  I took Lloyd 71st in my second mock, note, I took him 3 spots ahead of Johnson; that's because my working belief is there's a better chance that the guy in between my two picks takes Lloyd than Johnson.  Now, this is a spot I'll have to re-evaluate, as there wasn't a defense taken at 74, but several were gone by the time the draft worked back to me at 95; I may have to take a defense in the 7th round of this draft.
42. Addai
43. BG-E
44. Gates - I love Gates, but I won't pay for him.  I wound up getting an end of the draft TE, and I expect that to be the case in each draft.
45. Best
46. Colston
47. Ryan - If I were to take the Ben strategy but miss, I'd probably grab Ryan.
48. Boldin
49. Wayne
50. Welker

51. Ingram
52. Jacobs - I got Jacobs as my 4th back with pick 98 in my second mock.
53. Romo
54. Harvin
55. Steelers - The defenses started to go in the mock in the 60s, enough that I set as my point to take one my 8th pick, at 85.  In the actual draft, only the Steelers had gone, before my 8th pick.  In the standard CBS $ leagues, there's some points in defense, so I always rank them higher than you might expect.
56. RBush - he almost made it back around to be at 108/109 when I was picking my 3rd WR/4th RB.  I would have gone TE at that point had there been value on the board.  There was not.  If your defenses aren't as valuable, you could go TE where I went defense.  I got him in my second mock as my 5th back at 119.
57. Marshall
58. AJ Green - this is my third WR, I got him 84th  I got Green at 146 in my second mock.
59. Moreno
60. Tolbert
61. Freeman
62. Jets - and thats who I got 85th.
63. FJackson
64. Manningham
65. Schaub
66. JStewart
67. DThomas
68. DJax
69. VD
70. Moss - weird that there's only one Moss left
71. Bryant
72. DWilliams
73. Bryant
74. DWilliams
75. Hightower
76. Manning.  The Younger
77. Starks
78. Witten
79. Rice - I got him 108th as my 4th receiver and was very pleased; thought about taking him as high as 84th, but he fell here.
80. LT - and I got Tomlinson 109th as my 4th RB.  If the Jets will just bench Greene again like last year, I'll look to sell high on LT right after his first solid game.
81. SSmith
82. Eagles
83. Lynch
84. McGahee
85. JJones - right after I picked AJ, the next guy picked Jones
86. Knox - I thought about Knox over Rice, but he almost fell all the way to 132.
87. Packers
88. Bears - the Bears were my defense in the second mock at 95.
89. Clark
90. Maclin
91. Crabtree
92. Ford
93. Flaco
94. Chad
95. RWilliams
96. Evans
97. Moore
98. Garcon
99. Finley
100. Peyton

In both my first draft and my second mock I wound up with Billy Cundiff, Zach Miller, Colt McCoy.  In the first real draft I got Justin Forsett as my fifth RB.  I'd expect to get McCoy and Miller in every draft.

Team One:
QB Brees
RB Mendenhall
RB Benson
WR AJohnson
WR SJohnson
Flex Wells
TE ZMiller
K Cundiff
Def Jets

QB McCoy
RB Tomlinson
RB Forsett
WR Green
WR Rice

Team Two:
QB Roethlisberger
RB Peterson
RB Benson
WR Fitzgerald
WR SJohnson
Flex FJones
TE ZMiller
K Cundiff
Def Eagles

QB McCoy
RB Stewart
RB Starks
WR Green
WR Rice

Team Three:
QB Roethlisberger
RB Peterson
RB Hillis
WR Fitzgerald
WR Britt
Flex Matthews
TE Keller
Def Steelers
K Cundiff

QB McCoy
RB Starks
RB TJones
WR Green
WR Thomas

The Weekly Tendown August 28-Sept 3 2011

Sunday, September 4, 2011

Dear Internet:

This week, my Ladygal and I went to the art museum.

Sure, one could question the work of John Wayne Gacy being included in an art museum, but who am I to judge?

Here's Tendown 92.

1. White Flag
A week ago, my hope (it was a little stronger than hope, but a little softer than anticipation, so much like you want to mentally adjust for era as you watch sports, inflate the word hope appropriately) was that the World Champion Giants would enter today a game back.

That did not happen.

We dropped 20 of 29 through Wednesday, falling a half dozen out and responded by making a couple of long overdue roster movies.  The Snakes came to town for 3 this weekend, and in the desperate manner of those who should now know better given the flag flying above the ballpark, Giants Nation collectively said "if we sweep, we're 3 out and back in the race."

We didn't.  Lincecum appears out of gas, getting bombed for his second straight outing, and now, we're six out with 23 left, and that's the end of the fight.

The lesson unfortunately won't be learned; Brian Sabean has spent his entire Giants tenure acquiring veterans better liked by lay people than advanced metrics, "Orlando Cabrera, he's good, right?  'Member how the Red Sox won that World Series and then we paid Dave Roberts like Al Davis signing Larry Brown after those two Super Bowl picks?  That turned out good, right?  Let's keep doing that." and year after year after year, those moves failed.

Aaron Rowand
Ryan Garko
Jose Castillo
Charlie Hayes
Miguel Tejada
Dave Roberts
Ryan Klesko
Mark Sweeney
Mark DeRosa
Russ Davis
Steve Finley
Benji Molina
Tom Goodwin
Michael Tucker
Shea Hillenbrand
Neifi Perez
Tsuyoshi Shinjo
Rey Sanchez
Edgar Renteria
Omar Vizquel
Jose Vizcaino
Jose Guillen
Edgardo Alfonzo
Mike Matheny


And that's not including the 130 million to Barry Zito.  Or trading Nathan/Liriano for Pierzynski.  Or all the wasted at bats for Pedro Feliz.  Or all the starts we gave to Livan Hernandez. Or Wheeler for Beltran.

It's a symphony of busts.

But last year it worked, you go to the casino and sit at that roulette wheel long enough putting all your money on the same number, and maybe it comes up.

Does that make it worth it?  Absolutely.  I would not hop back in time to undo Brian Sabean's tenure; erasing those terrible decisions wouldn't be worth the risk of erasing the title.

But that doesn't mean that we should keep handing him our money to blow at that damn roulette wheel anymore.  Last year's freak seasons by veterans Huff, Burrell, Torres turned into more predictable outs and injuries.  Playing the lottery isn't a good approach to money management, even if you win.

And the payroll manager got arrested this week.   A fitting end to our title reign.

2. Kill the Wild Card
Joe Sheehan wrote this week that the Wild Card has done more harm than good.

This is a longstanding view of mine.  The gain of expanding playoff chances to a greater number of teams "look at how many cities can still be interested in baseball in September" has not been worth the loss of meaningful pennant races between great teams.  I say this as a Giants fan, having been on the losing side of the last real pennant race in baseball history in '93.  I think the best way to express the concept is while the width of the pleasure has expanded (hey, I'm only 4 out of the Wild Card, I can still make it) the depth of pleasure has been reduced - this year is an excellent example.  Right now, the Yankees are half a game up on Boston; yet there is zero national interest in that race, as both teams are headed for the playoffs.  My guess is that you (yes, you!) did not know what the AL East standings were unless you are a fan of one of those two teams, even if you're a significant baseball fan.  However, if only the division winner could go, Boston/New York would be the top sports story in the country, significantly over the start of both football seasons.  Every single game for both teams would be at the forefront of your brain.  You'd spend September talking baseball, even if your team had lost 21 of 31.

And that's true just about every year; the Wild Card, while giving you a greater chance of seeing your team in the postseason, has served to regionalize baseball interest - the national attention that would be paid, right now, to Boston and the Yankees is lost; there are great September moments that could have captured the attention of young fans, moments where baseball would not have been shoved off the stage when it's time for an opening week kickoff.  The Wild Card, universally hailed as a good, has been a mistake.

3. Also a Mistake, Voting for Obama
Regulation is not preventing job creation.  Taxation is not preventing job creation.  Corporations are enjoying massive, massive profits while cutting benefits, cutting their labor force, and squeezing more and more and more work out of those who are left.  If you have the experience of constantly seeing your workplace duties expanded, without pay increase and with benefit reduction, because you're able to keep your job while others lose theirs, you live the truth of this daily.  You and I are in the same bunker.

But yet - as opposed to driving squarely at the plutocrats - Obama decided to maintain Bush's smog emissions policy this week:

Bush-era smog standards, declared inadequate by government science advisers, will likely remain in effect until mid-decade if not longer.


Why have a Democratic President if he's going to pollute the air?

Also, this week, the FBI announced the arrest of a guy in Virginia for a youtube video, continuing an Obama Justice Department series of prosecutions of Muslims for engaging in political speech:

Perhaps the most extreme example of this trend is the fact that a Pakistani man in New York was prosecuted and then sentenced to almost six years in prison for doing nothing more than including a Hezbollah news channel in the package of cable channels he offered for sale to consumers in Brooklyn.  On some perverse level, though, all of these individuals are lucky that they are being merely prosecuted rather than targeted with due-process-free assassination.  As I documented last month, that is what is being done to U.S. citizen Anwar Awlaki due -- overwhelmingly if not exclusively -- to the U.S. Government's fear of his purely political views. 

Why have a Democratic President if he's going to violate the first Amendment?

On this coming week's Frontline, we're going to hear that Obama's prosecution of the War on Terror has essentially been the same as Bush's:

With a notable exception of the enhanced interrogation program, the incoming Obama administration changed virtually nothing with respect to existing CIA programs and operations. Things continued. Authorities were continued that were originally granted by President Bush beginning shortly after 9/11. Those were all picked up, reviewed and endorsed by the Obama administration.

Why have a Democratic President if he's going to use national security as pretense to ignore civil liberties?

Last year, GE CEO Jeff Immelt took home over 15 million dollars.  GE had 5 billion in profit.  GE got 3.3 billion dollars in federal income tax refunds.

Jeff Immelt is Obama's chairman of the Council on Jobs and Competitiveness.

And Immelt's not alone.

Last year twenty-five of the 100 most highly paid CEOs took home salaries greater than the amount their companies paid in 2010 federal income taxes. And it wasn’t because the corporations weren’t making dough—they averaged global profits of $1.9 billion, and only seven reported losses in US pre-tax income.


But these twenty-five companies shielded their profits in 556 tax haven subsidiaries in places like the Cayman Islands, Isle of Man, and Singapore, which proved to be a lucrative tax dodging strategy for the CEOs themselves: the twenty-five CEOs averaged $16.7 million in compensation.


For every dollar the average worker made in the "greed is good" 1980s, the average CEO made 40 dollars,.

For every dollar the average worker made when Obama took office in 2009, the average CEO made 263.

For every dollar the average worker made last year, the average CEO made 325.

Why have a Democratic President if he's just going to serve to line the pockets of millionaires and billionaires?

4. But Of Course, Obama's an Unparalleled Marxist. 

Despite those facts, the right wing continues to sell the argument that Eugene V. Debs was elected our first black President in 2008.

A week from today is the 10th Anniversary of 9-11.  Obama said it should be a day of service.  The right wing called him a socialist.

On Fox and Friends this week, Stuart Varney said Obama's committed to wealth redistribution.

From mid August, Limbaugh said Obama was the first Marxist President.  He then suggested maybe Wilson was as well.  The right, if you're missing the Wilson attack has decided that the Progressive Era, was the beginning of our slide into Stalinism.

Here's Fox and Friends from the middle of August, food stamps and unemployment insurance are socialism.

From August, here's my Congressman, Allen West, Obama's a low level socialist agitator.

From late July, here's a Republican congressman from Missouri, Obama's a flaming socialist.

According to an April poll, almost 80% of Republicans in South Carolina think Obama's a socialist.

How much more do CEOs have to make than workers before Obama is no longer a socialist?

How much more do CEOs have to make than their corporations pay in taxes before Obama's no longer a socialist?

5. If We Fail, It is Carlos's Fault
So, if you watch reality competition shows, you can spot this trope - the challenge in which the competitors are placed in teams, but then the losing team will have to account for their failure, resulting in the members turning on each other to avoid being the one who is eliminated.  That's the tension upon which the entire Apprentice game is based.

On the current version of Top Chef this week (it's a dessert based spinoff) came such a challenge, and one of the contestants pretty neatly summed up the element of the game that was being played:

                                                   If we fail, it is Carlos's fault.


So, that's now what I'm going to call such a task.  Carlos's Fault.  As in "hey, what happened on Runway this week"  "they did a Carlos's Fault."  You can find it in sports too, the next time some college football coach preaches "team, team, team, team" - and then has a press conference where he kills his quarterback for a late game pick.  It's a Carlos's Fault speech.  Look around the room at your next workplace meeting when you're all asked to pull the rope together during the tough times, or some bullshit designed to convince you to work harder without getting paid more.  Someone's going to get thrown over the side.  Figure out who the Carlos is and get ready to stick your boot on his neck.

6. The One Piece You Need to Read This Week
It's Jeffrey Toobin, penetrating the mistaken understanding many have of Clarence Thomas.

7. You Could also Read my Posts
I made five.  The athlete of the month is here. My week one college football picks were here (I'm currently 4-5 ATS). And you can get to my 3 posts in my series of 45 man rosters here.  Also, the latest chapter in the Counterfactual is here.

Coming every day this week will be NFL posts - the 100 best players in the NFL, my season long win total prediction, my fantasy draft board, my planned 17 week entry for a suicide pool, and presumably my Week 1 picks.  Expect something every day.  Additionally, I should get my hard drive cleared of the top wrestling matches I've yet to see from 2011, including the ROH title switch from Edwards to Davey, Taguchi v. Ibushi from BOSJ, two Yuji matches (against Suwama and Tanahashi), and five matches from NOAH.  I'll have star ratings for all in next week's Tendown and have added the relevant matches to the 2011 MOTY list.

8. If I Go to Jail, Here's Why.
I am not married, but live with my Ladygal.

In Florida, this is illegal.   Punishable for up to 60 days in jail.

And there are some Republicans who want to keep it that way:

Consider the response of state Rep. Dennis Baxley, R-Ocala, who previously headed the Florida chapter of the Christian Coalition: “I’m not ready to give up on monogamy and a cultural statement that marriage still matters,” he said.

If you ever hear Dennis Baxley talk about the need for "smaller government" - ask him to square that view with the above quote.

You are going to talk to Florida State Representative Dennis Baxley, right?  Am I confusing you with someone else?

9. The 50 Documentaries You Need to See Before You Die.
Current (that's a TV station, like ABC) did a multiweek countdown of the, well you can look at the subject of number 9 to see of what the countdown was.

I watch more than my share of documentaries, both for personal interest and work; I'm going to recount their full list, but to it, you'd have to add the following five:

Murder on a Sunday Morning
Why we Fight
The Corporation
American Movie
Maxed Out

Now - here's their list:


50. Spellbound 
49. Truth or Dare 
48. The Kid Stays in the Picture 
47. One Day In September
46. Little Dieter Needs to Fly
45. The Decline of Western Civilization Part II
44. Burma VJ 
43. When the Levees Broke 
42. Catfish 
41. King of Kong 
40. When We Were Kings 
39. Biggie and Tupac
38. March of the Penguins
37. Inside Job
36. Taxi to the Dark Side
35. Paragraph 175
34. Brother’s Keeper
33. Tongues Untied
32. Dogtown and Z-Boys
31. Jesus Camp
30. Fahrenheit 911
29. Man on Wire
28. Gasland
27. Tarnation
26. Murderball
25. Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
24. Paradise Lost
23. The Eyes of Tammy Faye
22. Shut up and Sing
21. Exit through the Gift Shop
20. Capturing the Friedmans
19. Touching the Void
18. Food Inc.
17. Street Fight
16. Bus 174
15. Crumb
14. Dark Days
13. The Fog of War
12. Bowling for Columbine
11. Paris is Burning
10. Grizzly Man
9. Trouble the Water
8. An Inconvenient Truth
7. The Celluloid Closet
6. The War Room
5. Super Size Me
4. Waltz with Bashir
3. Roger and Me
2. Thin Blue Line
1. Hoop Dreams

10. Paying it Backward

I heard from an old student over the weekend, and I mean an old student - over a decade ago, from when I taught high school.  He had a project at work and was rewarded for his ability to write concisely - he credited a specific lesson I had taught a dozen years ago.

My first thought was, of course, how old I am that a student who has already seen his 10 year high school reunion is thanking me for having taught him something.  My birthday, which recall, doesn't count this year as I'm waiting to turn 500 months, is in just a few weeks, but there's nothing like hearing from a married man with a corporate job who is forever fixed in my head as a 15 year old to remind me of my age.  

My second thought was one I had just a few days before, I'm bone tired.  I had a guest speaker at the course I've been assigned to teach to brand new students (largely college acculturation with pep talks); and he made a better connection with them than I do.  My essential skill is verbal communication with groups, but I've become increasingly aware over the past, maybe 8 months, that I am not as good as I was a handful of years ago.  I feel a bit like I'm being worked until I can't go out in front of the people anymore, that without some time off there's going to be a real erosion of my ability to do that job.  It's a concern, as talking is the only thing I've ever been able to do that people will consistently pay me for, and I am of the mind that, like a manager who doesn't care about how many innings I throw, they're just sending me to the mound until my arm falls off.  If you've got a teaching job that includes time off, I am envious.  As a business model I understand, they've got me teaching more classes, they've essentially eliminated the time between academic terms; if they can work me more at the same salary, that increases my value to them, but they are burning a hole in my brain.  

My third thought, and the one I expressed to the student, was that the specific lesson he recalled from a dozen years ago - was a specific lesson I recall being taught in 1985, from Max Griffith at Elgin High School, when I was 14.  Some corporate executive compliments my former student, who thanks me - and now I thank my high school speech coach.  We're paying it backward.  

That's a specific lesson taught over a quarter century ago, still alive today.  The past isn't dead.  It isn't even past.

And having quoted Faulkner, I can bring the train into the station.

That's it for this time.  I'll be back next time, if there is a next time....

Your pal,

Jim

2011 College Football Picks, Week 1

Friday, September 2, 2011

Occasionally I pick a college football game or two.

I try to do ten picks a week, just for symmetry, and maybe because the amount of time I have to devote to the enterprise is small, and it becomes challenging to keep track of more than ten.

I mean, in two months I'll be picking 27 games, but that's not my current intention.

My preseason top 25, if you missed it, is here.

TCU -3.5 Baylor (loss)
Auburn -23 Utah St. (loss)
NMexico +6 Colorado St. (win)
Clemson -16 Troy (win)
Pitt -30 Buffalo (loss)
LSU+4 Oregon (win)
Colorado +6.5 Hawaii (loss)
WVA -23 Marshall (loss)
Missouri -21 Miami Oh.(loss)
BYU v. Mississippi - Under 57 (win)

4-6

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