The 200 Greatest Major League Baseball Players Of All Time 2011 Edition (by WAR/WARP) Who Just Missed The List/Top Active Players Not On the List

I like sports. I like sports analysis and discussion. The grease that lubricates sports discussion has historically consisted of some variation of "Who's Better: X or Y?"

I recall being 10-11 years old and just laboriously pouring over Maury Allen's book where he listed the Top 100 players in MLB history; I'm a sucker for lists, be they films or books or rankings of Supreme Court justices, I want to play.

Performance analysis has advanced since 1981 (although you shouldn't tell Murray Chass...hell, you can't really tell Bob Costas; my guess is that we would agree far more often than not on the big issues of the day, perhaps even on more metaphysical matters - but when I watch he and Keith Olbermann talk about baseball as if the sabermetric insights of the past quarter-century haven't happened, that they continue to deny the massive paradigm shift that has occurred during their professional careers and instead revert back to the same level of understanding they had as children, I get incredibly frustrated.  And they're the smart guys - your average beat writer is worse - your average sports radio call in host is much worse - and then fans/politicians/and finally Tim McCarver) and my views have evolved; first with Bill James, then with Pete Palmer, then Rob Neyer and Baseball Prospectus, now with Fangraphs.

This is my ranking of the 200 Best Major League Baseball Players of All Time; my reliance is not on anecdote, not on fitting into a particular childhood narrative that player X simply must be better than player y. My reliance is on facts and not faith, on statistics and not storyline. I happen to believe that baseball is more objectively quantifiable - the "truth" of what happens on a baseball diamond more knowable than in virtually any human endeavor.

WARP is, in my view, the superior "universal theory of everything" number; I prefer it vastly to Win Shares  as expressing actual career value. The list is skewed to career, as opposed to peak value - I'm attempting to express who had the greatest careers as opposed to "on any given day, who would you pick to win one baseball game for you." That's a reasonable list, I guess, but it's not this one. I add to that WAR (baseball-reference version; I understand if you prefer Fangraphs WAR - choices have to be made.) and that's the totality of the number you see next to the player.  In previous versions, I added some "peak" component; BP expresses peak itself with a JAWS number, taking the 7 best years and combining it with the WARP, and at some point, all of those numbers will be sortable and, one assumes, they'll put out their own list of this type; I might even prefer it to mine. There is no peak component to this list, with the tiny exception that I'm breaking ties by favoring the player who played in fewer seasons (or the player who is still active). 

The defensive metrics have really evolved even since I began putting the list together, that partially explains the differences between the version you're about to see and any previous you may have read from me. The level of evolution has also served to further reduce the degree to which this is just a career as opposed to a peak list. It's still solely a regular season list, completely ignoring the postseason.

WARP is about to undergo another revision. Could be that after 2011, I have to carve this up again.
Right now, I want to read a book that, using the statistics which I believe are most revelatory, lists the 200 best MLB players ever. A book that adjusts for era and ballpark; that doesn't reflexively list the same top players at each position that the author decided upon when he was 12...

Spoiler alert.....

The greatest catcher of all time is no longer Johnny Bench.

...if there was a book like that, I'd buy it.

But there's not. So - I'm writing this list.

From 1871-2010, I've looked at every single career - with the caveat that I'm just the one dude and maybe I missed a guy, or miscounted, or that the numbers will change before you read this - meaning this is my definitive, up to the moment the 2011 season begins, list. (here's the edit - it's the All-Star Break in 2011; in addition to their being two versions of WAR, there are now two versions of WARP; I'm going to use Clay Davenport's, as he's got his database to go back further than the Prospectus database.  Maybe one day I'll add the BP and the Fangraphs versions of their respective metrics for the ultimate universal number.  Which would then immediately have 4 opportunities to be revised each year.)

I'll do ten a week over the next 20 weeks, walking all the way up to Opening Day.

They're still gonna play baseball in 2011, right?  SFG won the WS, so I'm unsure what the point is in continuing - we can focus all of our energies on Golden St.

The previous version, with different methodology, is here.

Okay - without revealing who number 200 is - his combined career WAR+WARP is 111.4 and there are another 50 players with career WAR+WARP of 100-110 and 5 players, who couldn't have come any closer to making the list, who had career numbers above 110.

Here they are - numbers 201-205

201. David Cone (56.9+67.6=124.5)(Edit - so, as of the middle of 2011, Cone, Wynn, Helton will make their way into the main list)


202. Early Wynn (58.3+62.0=120.3)

203. Todd Helton (59.7+69.1=128.8)

204. Sherry Magee (59.1+45.2=104.3)

205. Stan Coveleski (49.5+53.1=102.6)

Helton, obviously, is likely to move into the top 200 in 2011, if he returns.  There are 7 additional players, still active at the time of this writing, between 100-110 in total WAR+WARP, meaning they are threats to crack the Top 200 by the end of the 2011 season:
 
Andy Pettitte (49.4+60.6=110.5)



Jamie Moyer  (46.7+57.1=103.8)


Ichiro Suzuki  (54.4+46.5=100.9)

Jorge Posada (45.5+54.4=99.9)

Jason Giambi (53.5+60.9=114.4)


Lance Berkman (49.1+59.9=109.8) 


Johan Santana (47+58=105)

Helton's 2010 WAR/WARP was .4; he needs to better it, by a little, in 2011, and he'll wheeze into the 200th all time spot. 

Pettitte's was 6.2; if he can match that in 2011, that would take him all the way up to #189 (and knock Helton off the list, in that scenario).

Moyer was .4.; it seems improbable he has enough career left to make the list.

Posada was 3.4; he'd have to hold that value 2 additional seasons to make the list.

Giambi doesn't have enough career left to make the list.

Ichiro's combined WAR+WARP in 2010 was 9.4; so he's on the list by the end of 2010 - if he matches his 2010 in 2011, he'll be 179th at season's end - so he and Pettitte are looking at taking two spots. 

Berkman's 2010 season (3.2) won't get it done if he repeats it; one assumes a bounceback in 2011 gets him closer than that.

Santana had a combined WAR+WARP of 10, repeating it would get him into the current list - tie him with Helton under the above projections - but they'd both find themselves out given the Pettitte/Ichiro numbers.  Obviously, Santana is likely to finish his career solidly on this list.  He turns 32 in 2011, so his slide is underway (as seen in his Mets tenure) but finishing in the Top 100 is not an unreasonable goal. 

Active players with WAR+WARP above 90:  Tejada (99.6), Cameron (91.1) Damon (91.6) Sabathia (104.5) Oswalt (104.4) Hudson (108.3)  None of them will make the list by end of 2011.  Sabathia and Oswalt will make it by the end of 2012. 

Joe Mauer and Chase Utley are both in the low 80s.  They have outside chances of making it by the end of 2012, but you'd expect both by end of 2013.  Mark Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera are in the low 70s; Hanley Ramirez in the low 60s - they're really too far away to talk about, as is everyone younger you might be thinking about. 

Next week - #200-191.

Giantdown: All the Giants Posts Are Here

It hardly seems real.

My thoughts about winning the World Series are here.

Newspaper headlines the day after are here.

My WS prediction post is here.

My history of the San Francisco Giants in the World Series, now updated to include 2010 is here.

My history of the San Francisco Giants in the NLCS, now updated to include 2010 is here.

My prediction post for the NLDS is here.

My prediction post for the entire postseason is here

My breakdown of every San Francisco Giants season, literally every one, by WAR/WARP is here.  Actually, that's just the 2010 season, but it has the links to every season from 1958 on.  So, if you wondered how Aubrey Huff in 2010 compared to Al Oliver in 1984 (spoiler alert - favorably) that's where you'd go.

Would you like to see the all time best/worst seasons by San Francisco Giants?  Would you like to know the answer to - "I wonder what was the single worst season by a SFGiants second baseman ever" - I have that here.

How about our all time roster?  Who would be the fifth starter on the All Time San Francisco Giants starting pitching staff?  How about the utility infielder?  How about this - what two current Giants rank in the Top 20 All Time for San Francisco Giants value?  here.

The first Giants piece I wrote, back in 2006, which began with the line I'm a San Francisco Giants fan, we're never going to win the World Series. here.

There's no Tendown this week, which I mentioned in last week's 50 issue post, which consisted of links to the  previous 49.  You can find that here.

Too much stuff to buy!  Yikes.  I need extra courses next quarter just to buy World Series merch.

Enjoy the offseason.  Starting this week will be my revised/updated countdown of the 200 greatest major league baseball players of all time.  10 a week for 20 weeks, taking us all the way up to the 2011 season.  Fun!

I Pick College Football Games - Week 10

Last week, awful though it was, is here.

Overall:  44-49-1  Picking 16 this week, that gets me to 110 games picked.  Took all season to get to .500 after starting so badly - blew it last week.  Goal this week is 10-6. 
 
VT -13.5 GT (loss)
Boise v. Hawaii under 67 (win)
Army +7 AForce (loss)
BC -3 Wake (win)
Iowa -17 Indiana (loss)
LSU +6.5 Alabama (win)
Miss v. La/La under 66 (win)
Missouri -4.5 TTech (loss)
Navy +3 ECarolina (win)
Nebraska -18 Iowa St (loss)
Okla -3 AM (loss)
Okla v AM under 62 (win)
OkSt v. Baylor under 73 (loss)
Ore St -5 UCLA (loss)
SDSt -17 Col St (loss)
Wisc -20 Purd (win)

7-9
51-58-1

I Pick Every NFL Game in 2010 - Week 9

Last week is here.

ATS:  51-46-6
SU: 63-40


Atlanta -8.5 TB (loss/win)
Chicago -3 Buffalo (push/win)
NE -5 Cleve (loss/loss)
Jets -4 Detr  (loss/win)
Carolina +6.5 NO (Saints win game) (loss/win)
Dolphins +5 Ravens (Balt wins game) (loss/win)
Chargers -1.5 Houston (win/win)
Vikes -9 Arizona (loss/win)
NYG -7 Seattle (win/win)
Indy +3 Eagles (win/loss)
Chiefs +2.5 Raiders (loss/loss)
GB -8.5 Dallas (win/win)
Bengals +4.5 Steelers (Pitt wins game) (loss/win)


4-8-1   55-54-7
10-3    73-43

The 100 Greatest Players in Professional Football History: 10-1 (The Full List is Here)

20-11 is here.

I'll edit in the NFL Network list once they air the episode.  Here's how we got to the top 10. My list is first, then NFL Net list.  If all you want is the top ten - scroll to the bottom.

100. Larry Allen (Joe Namath)

99. Tom Mack (Michael Strahan)

98. Ozzie Newsome (Lee Roy Selmon)

97. Steve Van Buren (Derrick Brooks)

96. Michael Strahan (Mel Hein)

95. Norm Van Brocklin (Larry Allen)

94. Donovan McNabb (Lenny Moore)

93. Lance Alworth (Sam Huff)

92. OJ Simpson (Michael Irvin)

91. Lou Groza (Fran Tarkenton)

90. Jack Youngblood (Kurt Warner)

89. Sam Huff (Ernie Nevers)

88. Paul Krause (Ed Reed)

87. Cris Carter (Crazylegs Hirsch)

86. Chris Doleman (Willie Davis)

85. Sammy Baugh (Marcus Allen)

84. Alex Karras (Joe Schmidt)

83. Tony Dorsett (Norm Van Brocklin)

82. Don Maynard (Ted Hendricks)

81. John Brodie (Steve Young)

80. Bobby Layne (Troy Aikman)

79. Gene Hickerson (Emlen Tunnell)

78. Chuck Howley (Bruce Matthews)

77. Michael Irvin (Tony Dorsett)

76. Too Tall Jones (Art Shell)

75. Roger Staubach (Darrell Green)

74. Willie Wood (Marion Motley)

73. Will Shields (Ozzie Newsome)

72. Carl Eller (Jonathan Ogden)

71. Ladainian Tomlinson (Paul Warfield)

70. Curtis Martin (Marshall Faulk)

69. Terrell Owens (Bobby Bell)

68. Len Dawson (Mike Webster)

67. Tom Brady (Kellen Winslow)

66. Mike Haynes (Willie Brown)

65. Ken Houston (Randy Moss)

64. Rickey Jackson (Herb Adderly)

63. Darrell Green (Jim Otto)

62. Mike Webster (Randy White)

61. Forrest Gregg (Ladainian Tomlinson)

60. Harold Jackson (Jack Ham)

59. Tim Brown (Mike Ditka)

58. Night Train Lane (Steve Van Buren)

57. Ken Anderson (Mike Singletary)

56. YA Tittle (Gene Upshaw)

55. Alan Page (Earl Campbell)

54. Thurman Thomas (Forrest Gregg)

53. Howie Long (Willie Lanier)

52. Jack Lambert (Eric Dickerson)

51. Randy Moss (Bart Starr)

50. Joe Perry (Terry Bradshaw)

49. Herb Adderly (Mike Haynes)

48. James Lofton (Red Grange)

47. Bruce Matthews (Ray Nitschke)

46. Derrick Brooks (Roger Staubach)

45. Tony Gonzalez (Tony Gonzalez)

44. Marshall Faulk (Mel Blount)

43. Steve Young (Alan Page)

42. Marcus Allen (John Mackey)

41. Marvin Harrison (Rod Woodson)

40. Eric Dickerson (OJ Simpson)

39. Ted Hendricks (Gino Marchetti)

38. Jackie Slater (Lance Alworth)

37. Randall McDaniel (Jim Thorpe)

36. Randy White (Raymond Berry)

35. Bob Lilly (Chuck Bednarik)

34. Merlin Olsen (Deion Sanders)

33. Mike Singletary (Sid Luckman)

32. Willie Brown (Jim Parker)

31. Steve Largent (Bruce Smith)


30. Jim Otto (Night Train Lane)


29. Otto Graham (Jack Lambert)


28. John Hannah (Emmitt Smith)


27. Jack Ham (Merlin Olsen)


26. Mel Blount (Bob Lilly)


25. Ronnie Lott (Dan Marino)


24. Deacon Jones (John Hannah)


23. Joe Greene (John Elway)


22. Ray Lewis (Gale Sayers)


21. Gene Upshaw (Tom Brady)


20. Fran Tarkenton (Brett Favre)


19. Rod Woodson (Bronko Nagurski)


18. Don Hutson (Ray Lewis)


17. Junior Seau (Barry Sanders)


16. Bruce Smith (Otto Graham)


15. Anthony Munoz (Deacon Jones)


14. Johnny Unitas (Sammy Baugh)


13. John Elway (Joe Greene)


12. Peyton Manning (Anthony Munoz)


11. Barry Sanders (Ronnie Lott)

10.Deion Sanders DB 89-05 Falcons/Cowboys

-53 career picks, 9 returned for TD, returned 9 kicks for TD.  Could control a game from the DB position in a way no other player ever could.  (NFL chose Dick Butkus, not on my list - more myth than man, short career, no team success, it doesn't make him bad, obviously, just overrated.)

9.Emmitt Smith RB 90-04 Cowboys

-was 6^th on the all time TD list after only 6 seasons in the league, finished with 18,000+ yards rushing and a total of 175 tds.  (Don Hutson - appeared in my previous ten)

8.Walter Payton RB 75-87 Bears

-16,000+ yards rush, 110 TDs rush, 4.4 y/c, another 4500+ receiving yards and 15 TDs.  Payton as pass catcher plus the era in which he played edges him past Emmitt by the narrowest margin to be the second best back of all time. (Peyton Manning - appeared in my previous ten)

7.Brett Favre QB 91-   Packers

-holds all of the counting stat records for QBs, in 2010 he’ll hit both 70,000 yards and 500 TD passes.  Two  QB still remain.  (Reggie White - still to come.)

6.Lawrence Taylor LB 81-93 Giants

-first defensive player to be voted unanimous MVP.  132 sacks, 11 recovered fumbles.  His productive career fewer games than you'd think and that slips him outside the top 5. (Johnny Unitas - appeared in my previous ten)

5.Jim Brown RB 57-65 Browns

-averaged 5.2 y/c, 104 yds rushed per game.  Short career keeps him lower on my list than he’ll be on the NFL list where he’ll either be 1 or 2.  (Walter Payton - just appeared.)

4.   Dan Marino QB 83-99 Dolphins

-61,000+ yards, 420 TDs, 7.3 yards per attempt.  Most of his career before the big offensive enhancement changes in the mid 90s. (Joe Montana - still to come.  I forecasted this correctly, incidentally.  If you were to ask who my favorite all time athlete is, the only reason I wouldn't automatically say Joe is he's bigger than the competition.  I'm a 40 year old life long San Francisco sports fan; as deeply as my respect and affection go for others - there's Joe and then there's the field.)

1.                         3.   Reggie White DL 85-00 Eagles/Packers

-7 Pro Bowls, 124 sacks, 11 fumbles recovered - before he got to Green Bay. The greatest defensive player in the history of football. (Lawrence Taylor.  Just appeared.)

1.      2.  Joe Montana QB 79-94 Niners

-4 Super Bowls. 83 of 122, 1142 yds, 11 TD, 0 Int (and 17 rushes for 101 yards and two TDs). 4 Wins.  O Losses. When you find someone who matches it, get back to me.  (Jim Brown.  That means they got it right.)  

1.       1. Jerry Rice WR 85-04 Niners

-Jerry Rice’s career: 499 catches. 6518 yards. 43 touchdowns.  That’s his career…after he turned 35.  He’s first in catches – by 400+, first in yards – by 7,000+, first in receiving TDs, by 50.  There’s Jordan, there’s Bonds, there’s Gretzky, there’s Rice.  Overarching, near mystical dominance.    If there is a way to reasonably compare eras and positions - if such a list like this has any type of credibility - then there is only one choice to be named Greatest Football Player of All Time.  And that's Jerry Rice. (Jerry Rice.  Amen.)

This was fun.  I've got my revised, really revised, as I changed out half the methodology, 200 Greatest Baseball Players of All Time ready to go - I think I'll keep this schedule, posting ten a week all the way until thhe next season starts.