Daniel Murphy. Runners-up: Jose Bautista, Alcides Escobar, Jacob DeGrom 2 months left.. January - Marshawn Lynch February - Malcolm Butler March - Breanna Stewart April - Steph Curry May - Floyd Mayweather June - American Pharoah July - Serena Williams August- Ronda Rousey September - Jake Arrieta October - Daniel Murphy
1. I'm of the mind that, more likely than not, this generation of Giants will not win another World Series. 3 is already, to use the language of Raising Arizona, more than we can handle. Speaking for myself, I do not deserve a 4th.
2. This list focuses entirely on the World Series winning teams. Other seasons had big moments, but that's not this.
3. The starting point is the same Win Probability tool I used in ranking Bonds's top 25 homers. Every plate appearance that improved the Giants chances to win a game 33% (in a game the Giants actually won) is included (except for two games at the end of a season which, given the Giants position in the standings, were close to meaningless). You'll see each WPA % listed.
4. I then added playoff games and the games from the 2010 pennant race; given the importance of those games, the 33% floor was relaxed. 2 regular season games that didn't meet the criteria were added; they'll make sense when you see them.
5. Ordering the list was challenging. Hard to place how a lower leverage spot in a key game should be placed against a higher leverage spot in a less important game.
6. The Panik/Crawford double play in Game 7 of the 2014 Series is not on the list. It wasn't even the most important double play of the game.
7. I've done a lot of Giants related writing here. I've profiled every team in 133 years.I've ranked the top 100 moments in Candlestick Park history. And there's other stuff. Not my first day.
Here we go.
1 101. 43% Sep 30 2012
9 games up with 4 left,
theoretically something to play for as we were three games from the best NL
record, so this isn’t an exhibition game, but also not really as meaningful as most regular season games, that drops it to bottom of list. One out in the 9th inning in a 5-5
game in San Diego - Hunter Pence hits a two run homer off Huston Street to dead center, we’ll
win the game 7-5. Street's first blown save of the season.
100. 0% June 25 2014
No hitters aren’t that
important, even though they feel good – and Tim Lincecum’s second, against the
Padres in the middle of our June free fall, was particularly impactless (except on Lincecum's arm throwing 148 pitches) – but Will Venable’s
grounding out to second to end the game goes here.
99. 36% Apr 23 2014
We lost the first two of a
series in Denver and were a game out of first place in late April, we trailed 6-5 in the 7th
when Brandon Belt hit a two run homer to right off Rex Brothers to give us a 7-6 lead, we’d go
on to win 12-10 in 11.
98. 37% April 11, 2010
Third home game of the
season, win takes the series against the Braves and gets us to 5-1 -- we're down 2-1 in
the 6th, Kenshin Kawakami on the mound with two out, Pablo Sandoval and Aubrey Huff both reach, Mark DeRosa comes through with two strikes with a single to right,
scoring both, giving the Giants a 3-2 lead and we go onto win 6-3
97. 34% May 4, 2010
We came in 14-10, second place,
starting a series in Miami, we're tied 3-3 in the 8th, two on, two outs, Juan Uribe doubles to left off Chris Leroux to score Sandoval/Molina, we go up 5-3 and would go
onto win in 12 9-6.
96. 36% May 4, 2010
Same same as #97. Down 6-5 in the ninth with 2 outs, Aaron Rowand homers to left off
of Leo Nunez who eventually became Juan Carlos Oviedo (but not during this pitch, that would bump it a few notches) to tie the game, we’d win 9-6 in 12.
95. 37% Apr 20, 2012
Start of a 7 game road trip and
a chance to get over .500 for the first time in the young season, 2 on 2 out in
a 3-3 game in the 10th inning – the Mets Frank Francisco gives up a
single to center to Hector Sanchez that scores Melky Cabrera with what will be the game winning
run.
94. 38% April 9, 2010
Home opener. Trying to stay unbeaten to go
4-0, two outs in the 13th, Juan Uribe on third after a walk, a steal, an
error, An Aaron Rowand infield single off Kris Medlen scored the winning run to walk off the
Braves.
93. 38% April 13, 2014
Rubber game in an early
season series against the Rox, Brandon Crawford breaks a 4-4 tie with a 10th
inning leadoff walkoff shot into the Cove against Rex Brothers.
92. 34% May 21, 2012
In Milwaukee for the first
game of a 7 game road trip, the Giants came in 7 games out of first place,
Hector Sanchez led off the top of the 14th with a homer against (not our) Juan Perez that put the
Giants up 4-3, a lead that would be the final score.
91. 37% May
29 2014
6 games up in the west and 16 over .500 before the end of May as we
went into St Louis having won 6 of 7.4-4 in the 8th
with runners on the corners and 2 out.Michael Morse scored them both on a double off Trevor Rosenthal, we’d go
on to win 6-5.
90. 36% June
4 2014
7.5 up, 17 over .500, the Giants were marching hard in the first half of
2014, but trailed 2-1 in the top of the 6th in Cincinnati when (our, not Milwaukee's from two years prior) Juan Perez, 1-21 on the season hit a 2 run homer to left off Tony Cingrani to put us up 3-2, the eventual
final score.
89. 33% July
25, 2010
We were looking for a 4 game sweep in Phoenix, a dozen games over
.500 and 3 off of the lead. 2 on, 2 out
in a 2-2 10th inning, someone named Esmerling Vasquez gave up a
single to Travis Ishikawa to score Eli Whiteside which gave us what would be the final margin of victory, 3-2.
88. 37% May 30, 2010
We’re going for a sweep over
the Snakes that will take us to 27-22, with two outs in the 10th in
a 5-5 game, Juan Uribe and Eli Whiteside singled, and then Andres Torres walked it off with a
game winning single to right off Carlos Rosa for a 6-5 Giants win.
8
87. 38% Apr 15 2014
Dodgers in first, Giants in
second a game back, bottom of the 12th, Brandon Crawford singled, took
second on a groundout and third on a wild pitch – with two out Hector Sanchez
singled him home off of Brandon League to win the game 3-2.
86. 38% July 18 2012
We opened a road trip with a win in Atlanta the
night before, getting us to 10 over .500 and bumping our lead in the west to 3
games. Tied at 3 in the 11th, one out, two on,Brandon
Crawford hits a three run homer off Chad Durbin.We’d go on to win 9-4, maintaining our lead.
85.36% Aug 22 2014,
Even after taking 2 of 3 in
Wrigley, a division lead which was once double digits had turned to a 3 game
deficit. In the 4th, the Giants down in DC 1-0, Joe Panik hit a 3
run homer off Doug Fister (Panik's first as a big leaguer) and we'd win going away to get back to ten over .500 and end a ten game Nats win streak. User Actions
#WalkOff – Marco Scutaro with game winning hit in 10th - #SFGiants win 9-8 – Gotta Love September Baseball
84. 38% Sep
3 2012 18 over .500 with a 4.5 game lead, the Giants open a homestand against
the Snakes, in the bottom of the tenth, 8-8, Brandon Crawford at third with two out,
Marco Scutaro sent everyone home with a single to left off Bryan Shaw. 83. 35%
August 6, 2010 Second
game of a four game series in Atlanta, we’d lost the night before and were two
behind the Padres coming in. A hit batsman and an error gave us 2 on against
Billy Wagner as we trailed 2-1 in the 9th. Chipper Jones blew a Pablo Sandoval grounder to score the
tying run. Wed go on to win in 11.
82. 38%
Aug 4 2014 10
up in early June was 2 out in early August when the Giants went to New York,
with two on and two out in a 3-3 9th, Pablo Sandoval doubled off of Jerry Mejia to score Gregor Blanco and give the Giants a 4-3 lead they’d never relinquish. 81. 36% July 22 2014 What had been a 10 game lead
dropped to a one game deficit; it was a half game lead in Philadelphia when,
down 5-4 in the 9th with Jonathan Papelbon on the mound and one out, Buster Posey
homered to tie the score. The Giants went on to win in 14.
80. 39% May 8 2012 14-15 and 5 games out after
losing the first game of a series in LA to the first place Dodgers.The Giants had a 2-1 lead in the bottom of
the 8th when LA loaded the bases with one out against Ryan Vogelsong.Javier Lopez came on and got Andre Ethier to hit into a 6-4-3 double play, the 4th we turned of the night, to end the threat.We finished them off in the 9th snapping Clayton Kershaw's 12 game home winning streak.
79. 36% May 11 2014 First place Giants, up a game on
the second place Dodgers – in LA and trailing Clayton Kershaw in the 7th
2-1, until a two strike two run homer by Brandon Hicks that gave us a 3-2 lead in a
game we’d eventually win 7-4 in 10.
78. 36% July 5 2014 Less than a month prior the
Giants had a ten game lead, but they came in here a game out in the west,
trailing the Padres 3-2 Michael Morse led off the top of the 9th
with a homer off Huston Street to tie the game.We’d go onto win 5-3 in 10.
77. 39% Aug 12, 2012 Rubber game at home against the
Rockies, ten over .500 and with a game lead
in the west, we entered the 8th down 6-4, but tied the score on 3
hits and a walk – with two on and two out, Hunter Pence hit a three run homer
off Rafael Betancourt, and 9-6 would be the final score.
76. 40% Apr 27 2014 Half a game up in the west and
looking to sweep the Indians, Brandon Hicks hit a three run walk off homer in
the bottom of the ninth to break a 1-1 tie. The hits don't stop til we get to the top; that ends part 1 of the 101 greatest plays of the Giants dynasty. Back next week with Part 2.
Through 2019. Ranked by WAR (baseball-reference+Clay Davenport, the best WAR number that exists).
1. 1938 Mel Ott 9.5
2. 1906 Art Devlin 7.45
3. 1928 Freddie Lindstrom 6.95
4. 1921 Frankie Frisch 6.85
5. 2011 Pablo Sandoval 6.1
6. 1966 Jim Ray Hart 5.75
7. 1994 Matt Williams 5.7
8. 1930 Freddie Lindstrom 5.75
9. 1893 George Davis 5.65
10. 1993 Matt Williams 5.6
11. 1950 Hank Thompson 5.35
12. 1948 Sid Gordon 5.3
13. 2009 Pablo Sandoval 5.25
14. 1967 Jim Ray Hart 5.25
15. 1894 George Davis 5.25
16. 1964 Jim Ray Hart 5.2
17. 1917 Heinie Zimmerman 5.15
18. 1904 Art Devlin 5.1
19. 1907 Art Devlin 5
20. 1995 Matt Williams 4.95
21. 1951 Bobby Thomson 4.9
22. 1991 Matt Williams 4.8
23. 1949 Sid Gordon 4.75
24. 1908 Art Devlin 4.6
25. 2015 Matt Duffy 4.45
26. 1952 Bobby Thomson 4.4
27. 1896 George Davis 4.4
28. 1990 Matt Williams 4.35
29. 1953 Hank Thompson 4.35
30. 1909 Art Devlin 4.3
31. 1895 George Davis 4.25
32. 1980 Darrell Evans 4.15
33. 1954 Hank Thompson 4.1
34. 1905 Art Devlin 4.05
35. 1962 Jimmy Davenport 4
36. 1979 Darrell Evans 3.9
37. 2014 Pablo Sandoval 3.85
38. 1978 Darrell Evans 3.75
39. 1924 Heinie Groh 3.8
40. 1914 Milt Stock 3.45
41. 1920 Frankie Frisch 3.4
42. 1998 Bill Mueller 3.35
43. 1933 Johnny Vergez 3.35
44. 2012 Pablo Sandoval 3.25
45. 1988 Kevin Mitchell 3.25
46. 1926 Freddie Lindstrom 3.25
47. 2002 David Bell 3.2
48. 1967 Jimmy Davenport 3.2
49. 1965 Jim Ray Hart 3.1
50. 1912 Buck Herzog 3.1
And the worst third base season in Giants history 1936 -2.05 Travis Jackson
Historically, I've been particularly good against the Vegas line when predicting season win totals.
Here's my prediction for the 2015-16 NBA season. Which starts today. Vegas total in parentheses. I see a lot of opportunities.
I'm picking a Warriors/Cavs rematch. If you have to invest, right now, pick the Cavs, given the distance between them and the rest of the east. If any of the top 5 teams in the West won the conference it wouldn't surprise.
I'm going to pick the Warriors, by a tiny margin I think they're the best team - and when the team you root for happens to be the best team, you pick them.
East
Cleveland 59 (56.5) Eastern Conference Champs
Atlanta 48 (50)
Chicago 47 (50)
Boston 46 (45.5)
Toronto 44 (46.5)
Miami 43 (47)
Washington 42 (47)
Indiana 40 (41.5)
Milwaukee 40 (44.5)
Charlotte 38 (34)
Detroit 37 (36.5)
Orlando 32 (34.5)
New York 26 (30)
Brooklyn 24 (27.5)
Philadelphia 22 (21)
West
World Champion Golden St. Warriors 60 (59.5) Western Conference Champs
San Antonio 56 (57)
OKC 55 (57)
LA Clippers 55 (57)
Houston 54 (56.5)
Memphis 50 (51)
New Orleans 46 (46.5)
Utah 42 (42.5)
Look - I missed both of the championship series; I had the Jays winning the whole thing coming into the postseason and I didn't even have the Mets making the playoffs as late as Labor Day. I'm the wrong guy this year to listen to about who is coming out on top.
I'm taking, in the narrowest way, the Royals. Two reasons - their ability to make contact aids in minimizing the Mets young power rotation and they have an advantage with back of the pen power arms.
They also have a terrible manager and if that costs them a "tied on all sides" series, that wouldn't surprise.
I guess I'm rooting for the Mets; I'm a blue state National League fan - and having spent several years in the midwest (including a tiny amount of time in Kansas City) I don't really want to align with whatever midwestern jealousy/anti-Semitism/anti-multiculturalism sentiment still exists that manifests in a weird dislike of NYC.
I assume that's lessened over the past couple of decades, but (and this was particularly true in Kansas City) I had multiple experiences of being in a conversation in which, seemingly out of nowhere, a real animus toward NY was expressed.
Fortunately, that tension between the coasts and the flyover states has really reduced to nothing.
Or the opposite of that.
Either way. I'm gonna lean, slightly, to the Royals and root, slightly, for the Mets and I can't claim to care all that much because I've won three titles since 2010.
Oh, and the Warriors. That too. Raining titles this decade. Once Harbaugh comes back to run the Niners, everything's gonna be sweet.
Through 2019. Ranked by WAR (baseball-reference+Clay Davenport, the best WAR number that exists).
1. 1989 Will Clark 9.05
2. 1885 Roger Connor 9
3. 1888 Roger Connor 8.4
4. 1930 Bill Terry 7.9
5. 1969 Willie McCovey 7.75
6. 1886 Roger Connor 7.5
7. 2010 Aubrey Huff 7.4
8. 1988 Will Clark 7.4
9. 1932 Bill Terry 7.25
10. 1948 Johnny Mize 7.15
11. 1970 Willie McCovey 7.1
12. 1966 Willie McCovey 7.1
13. 1891 Roger Connor 6.85
14. 1942 Johnny Mize 6.8
15. 1968 Willie McCovey 6.6
16. 1947 Johnny Mize 6.55
17. 1946 Johnny Mize 6.4
18. 1963 Orlando Cepeda 6.15
19. 1931 Bill Terry 6.05
20. 1991 Will Clark 5.95
21. 1889 Roger Connor 5.9
22. 1887 Roger Connor 5.85
23. 1965 Willie McCovey 5.4
24. 1967 Willie McCovey 5.35
25. 1924 High Pockets Kelly 5.25
26. 1893 Roger Connor 5.1
27. 1883 Roger Connor 5.05
28. 1983 Darrell Evans 5
29. 1927 Bill Terry 5
30. 1905 Dan McGann 4.9
31. 2016 Brandon Belt 4.85
32. 1992 Will Clark 4.8
33. 2013 Brandon Belt 4.75
34. 1959 Orlando Cepeda 4.65
35. 1987 Will Clark 4.6
36. 1934 Bill Terry 4.55
37. 1935 Bill Terry 4.5
38. 1894 Jack Doyle 4.5
39. 1929 Bill Terry 4.4
40. 1964 Orlando Cepeda 4.3
41. 1962 Orlando Cepeda 4.3
42. 1944 Phil Weintraub 4.3
43. 1922 High Pockets Kelly 4.25
44. 2015 Brandon Belt 4.2
45. 1892 Buck Ewing 4.15
46. 1898 Bill Joyce 3.95
47. 1904 Dan McGann 3.85
48. 1973 Willie McCovey 3.75
49. 1956 Bill White 3.75
50. 1987 Mike Aldrete 3.7
And the worst first base season in Giants history...1901 John Ganzel -3.65
In a previous post, I listed the hundred best players in the NBA for the upcoming season.
This list isn't the ten least skilled players its the ten most likely to cause harm, to bring about losses. It's the very opposite of that best list. Who are the worst players in the NBA?
1. Adreian Payne PF Minn
2. Zach Lavine SG Minn
3. Dante Cunningham SF NO
4. Lance Thomas SF NY
5. Kirk Hinrich SF Chi
6. Kevin Seraphin C NY
7. Gary Neal SG Orl
8. Gary Harris SG Den
9. Jason Smith C Orl
10. Kendrick Perkins C NO
I hit the Wild Card and split the two NLDS; I had the Dodgers going into the postseason to win the pennant but really liked whomever came out of the WC game as a close second choice. That won't stop here - the Cubs swept the Mets this season, and while a sample size of 7 games isn't determinative I bet there aren't too many circumstances in MLB history where a team got swept in the regular season over the course of even that many games and then turned around and beat the sweepers in the playoffs. The Cubs hit a bunch of homers, which are prone to variance and given their tendency to strike out a bunch you get concerned that the bats will go cold. Russell's NLDS injury keeps him out here, and that hurts Chicago.
The best position players are Cubs - Rizzo and Bryant. The best pitcher is a Cub - Arrieta, and when you add Lester to that, I'll say we are looking, albeit in 7 games, at a Chicago Cub pennant.
I hit the WC game and both ALDS - I'll keep rolling with the Jays; they had the best offense and defense in baseball this season. They're solidly the best team in MLB and I'm picking them until the wheels fall off.
Any reason to think otherwise?
Tulowitzki's a hole right now; maybe too hurt to play. There's some weirdness with Price given his relief appearance in game 4 that kept him from being available in game 5. And the Royals have the significant late pen advantage. The distance between the two teams isn't so great that you should be surprised if KC won their second straight pennant.
But I'll keep taking the Jays. They're the best team in baseball.
ESPN is counting down its list of the top 400 players in the NBA. I'm not going to do that.
I do have my ranking of the top 100 players in the NBA for the upcoming 2015-16 season. It's a projection. Not a fantasy ranking. For the first time in years, there's a new #1.
100. JR Smith SG Cle
99. Manu Ginobli SG SA
98. Markieff Morris PF Pho
97. Tobias Harris SF Orl
96. Monte Ellis SG Ind
95. Jared Sullinger PF Bos
94. Al-Farooq Aminu SF Port
93. Michael Carter-Williams PG Mil
92. Gorgui Dieng C Minn
91. Al Jefferson C Charl
90. Thaddeus Young PF Brook
89. Jordan Clarkson PG LAL
88. Jonas Valanciunas C Tor
87. Victor Oladipo SG Orl
86. Lou Williams SG LAL
85. Andrew Bogut C World Champion Golden St. Warriors
84. Kelly Olynyk C Bos
83. Jusuf Nurkic C Den
82. Brandan Wright C Mem
81. Ed Davis PF Port
80. Zach Randolph PF Mem
79. Robin Lopez C NY
78. Mason Plumlee C Port
77. Amir Johnson PF Bos
76. Deron Williams PG Tor
75. Rudy Gay SF Sac
74. Bradley Beal SG Wash
73. Giannis Antetokounmpo SF Mil
72. Reggie Jackson PG Det
71. Dirk Nowitzki PF Dall
70. Elfrid Payton PG Orl
69. Wesley Matthews SG Dall
68. Danilo Gallinari SF Den
67. Trevor Ariza SF Hou
66. Marcin Gortat C Wash
65. Patrick Patterson PF Tor
64. Chris Bosh PF Mia
63. Terrence Jones PF Hou
62. Dwyane Wade SG Mia
61. Khris Middleton SG Mil
60. Goran Dragic PG Mia
59. Nikola Vucevic C Orl
58. Robert Covington SF Phi
57.DeMarre Carroll SF Tor
56. Nerlens Noel PF Phi
55. LaMarcus Aldridge PF SA
54. Ty Lawson PG Hou
53. Dwight Howard C Hou
52. Jeff Teague PG Atl
51. Ricky Rubio PG Min
50. Joakim Noah C Chi
49. Kenneth Faried PF Den
48. Brook Lopez C Brook
47. Jrue Holiday PG NO
46. Chandler Parsons SF Dall
45. Tyreke Evans SG NO
44. Marcus Smart PG Bos
43. Pau Gasol PF Chi
42. Kyle Korver SG Atl
41. Serge Ibaka C OKC
40. George Hill PG Ind
39. Isaiah Thomas PG Bos
38. Nikola Mirotic PF Chi
37. Tyson Chandler C Pho
36. Nicolas Batum SF Char
35. Kemba Walker PG Char
34. Greg Monroe C Mil
33. Klay Thompson SG World Champion Golden St. Warriors
32. Al Horford C Atl
31. Gordon Hayward SF Uta
30. Paul George PF Ind
29. Marc Gasol C Mem
28. Derrick Favors PF Utah
27. Tim Duncan C SA
26. Danny Green SG SA
25. Mike Conley PF Mem
24. Carmello Anthony SF NY
23. Hasaan Whiteside C Mia
22. Paul Millsap PF Atl
21. Draymond Green PF World Champion Golden St. Warriors
20. Eric Bledsoe SG Pho
19. Jimmy Butler SG Chi
18. Kyrie Irving PG Cle
17. Kyle Lowry PG Tor
16. Andre Drummond C Det
15. DeAndre Jordan C LAC
14. Rudy Gobert C Uta
13. Blake Griffin PF LAC
12. Kevin Love PF Cle
11.Damian Lillard PG Por
10. John Wall PG Wash
9. DeMarcus Cousins PF Sac
8. Kawhi Leonard SF SA
7. Russell Westbrook PG OKC
6. Kevin Durant SF OKC
5. Chris Paul PG LAC
4. James Harden SG Hou
3. Anthony Davis PF NO
2. Lebron James SF Cle
1.Steph Curry PG GSW World Champion Golden St. Warriors
San Francisco Giants
