(Not Really A) 2015 NFL Mock Draft (first round). Please, Please, Please Don't Select Arik Armstead

In an exercise that's becoming increasingly popular, this is not my first round prediction, instead, it's how I would make each pick were I selecting it.  I'll look to do this again after round one as the board resets.

1. Tampa Marcus Mariota QB Oregon
-Not a difficult decision over Winston, based on performance without even getting to The Hunting Ground of it all.  Tampa should play Glennon the first two years; were I in a decision making capacity, I don't think there's any rookie quarterback I'd play even a snap.

2. Tennessee Leonard Williams DE USC
-This is a move down draft beginning at this spot, I don't really like anyone as having top 5 value.  I'm a USC guy; more than that, a Pac 12 guy, so I've seen a lot of those west coast games.  Williams isn't quite that kind of dominant pass rusher who gets picked second, but he's the best all around player on my board.

3. Jacksonville Todd Gurley RB Georgia
-Yes, Gurley has a medical concern and running backs no longer get picked this high (and that's reasonable) but I'm a little irrationally high on Gurley, I don't feel super confident about my ordering of the pass rushers, and the Jags have a desperate need.  Like the Titans, they should deal down.  I'll stop saying that now, just assume it's true for everyone.

4. Oakland Amari Cooper WR Alabama
-If the old man were still alive, it would be White, but I've got Cooper as my solid top receiver.

5. Washington Vic Beasley OLB Clemson
-My top pass rusher, and who I'd take at #3 if the Jags are married to getting one there.

6. New York Jets Randy Gregory OLB Nebraska
-A bigger need than White; I have him just ahead of Fowler.

7. Chicago Danny Shelton DT Washington
-Excellent spot for an underrated guy.  Really like him at this spot.  I'm a Niners fan, if he's still available by like pick 12, I'll be agitating to get up and get him.

8. Atlanta Dexter Fowler DE Florida
-He's almost certainly gone, Gregory's drug test will knock him down for people who aren't me, but this is really as high as I like Fowler who is a little more of a project than is being discussed.

9. New York Giants La'el Collins T LSU
-I've got him ahead of Scherff, and the Giants are in a really good spot to get the top offensive lineman. Collins, like Gregory, might be looking at a real off the field related slide.

10. St Louis Brandon Scherff T Iowa
-My second lineman; depth at receiver maybe aids my decision to pass on White/Parker here.

11. Minnesota Kevin White WR West Virginia
-Here, the value at receiver is so strong that, despite the OL need, you have to get that deep threat.  Passing on Parker with his quarterback behind center is tough.

12. Cleveland Jameis Winston QB Florida St.
-This is about where I think Winston's value is; the Browns need a quarterback, and it's a small enough market (and really provincial) that Winston gets some protection from scrutiny.

13. New Orleans Shane Ray OLB Missouri
-Last of the touted pass rushers, I think there's a real chance that Shelton's still on the board here and that he's the Saints pick - meaning, as a Niner fan, I might want that 12th spot.

14. Miami DeVante Parker WR Louisville
Good spot for him; he's likely to be gone as high as the Rams, and that's not unreasonably high.

15. San Francisco Marcus Peters CB Washington
If we're here, and we might be, the 3 top receivers and the 4 top pass rushers all gone, Shelton, the guy I want here, gone - I'll be looking really hard for a trade down.  Who I won't be looking for (and this is the reference in the subject of the post) is Arik Armstead, who most mocks have going to the Niners and who I don't like in the first round.  I have Peters, narrowly, as my top corner, it's a little early for a corner in this draft, so my hope is a deal down.

16. Houston Dorial Green Beckham WR Missouri
I'm taking the shot.  Someone's gotta be fourth, I'm willing to go on the potential at this point in the round.

17. San Diego Bud Dupree OLB Kentucky
I've got him a cut below the other four, enough that I don't want him at #15 but would want the other guys, this is a real trade down possibility.

18. Kansas City Devin Smith WR Ohio St.
Here's how much I like Smith; I've got him ranked ahead of my guy from USC, and if the Niners were to take him at #15, even though I want to go defense, I don't scream in protest.

19. Cleveland Nelson Agholor WR USC
And there's my USC guy.  Similar to Williams, I've seen him enough that the flaws are more evident, he lacks Smith's explosion, and DGB's upside, but he's got a high floor and I'm good with him here.

20. Philadelphia Landon Collins S Alabama
Fits the need and this is good slotting.  Note how the Niners could deal down and still get that corner.

21. Cincinnati Andrus Peat T Stanford
I've got three draft crushes, Shelton's the first, the second is Peat's teammate, Anderson, and the Bengals would be the first spot I'd consider getting him (he won't go in the first round).  If Dupree's available at #15, that's another possible deal partner.

22. Pittsburgh Trae Waynes CB Michigan St.
Here's where I think it's time to take corners, when we get to the last ten picks of the round; I've got Waynes a tick ahead of Collins.

23. Detroit Melvin Gordon RB Wisconsin
Good spot for Gordon, like him right here; I don't think he gets by Arizona.

24. Arizona Cameron Erving C Florida St.
Add to the Iupati signing and they've done a nice job with this interior line.

25. Carolina Ereck Flowers T Miami
Dire need for a tackle, Flowers is the best available.

26. Baltimore Breshad Perriman WR UCF
7th first round receiver.

27. Dallas Jalen Collins CB LSU
Here's the next spot where I'm tempted to go for Anderson, but Collins is as good as either corner taken and they need one.

28. Denver Cedric Ogbuehi T Texas A&M
Best OL on the board.

29. Indianapolis Eric Kendricks ILB UCLA
Here's my third draft crush, my ideal Niners draft is we get all 3 without having to move, or if we miss on Shelton, deal back so we can get both Kendricks and Anderson and then the best available corner/wide receiver/offensive lineman.

30. Green Bay Kevin Johnson CB Wake Forest
Packers really want to deal down here, they'd like a Kendricks, but if he's gone, an Anthony or a Dawson also works, but not here.

31. New Orleans  Arik Armstead DE Oregon
 Armstead's fine here. Just not with me at 15.

32. New England Henry Anderson DE Stanford
Goddamn, Belichick.  

April, 2015 Athlete of the Month

March is here.

Steph Curry.  Runners-up:  Tyus Jones, Jordan Spieth, LeBron James

January - Marshawn Lynch
February - Malcolm Butler
March - Breanna Stewart
April - Steph Curry

4 months down.  8 to go.  Who will be the 2015 Athlete of the Year?

Tendown April 26 2015

Tendown 171 is here. This is Tendown 172.

1. How much do the 1% of the 1% contribute to political campaigns?

Half.

2. And how much do companies shift the burden of paying their workers to taxpayers?

150 billion a year.

3.  Bruce Jenner.  Ain't that a helluva thing.

4. We Get Dumber.

5. 

Anytime a member of the picked upon "affluent" would like to trade financial statuses with me, as representative of "the rest of Americans" I'm down.  

6. For every dollar spent on lobbying by labor unions and public-interest groups together, large corporations and their associations now spend $34. Of the 100 organizations that spend the most on lobbying, 95 consistently represent business.

7. 

Who could have seen this coming?

Oh yeah, that guy.

Judge Stephen Reinhardt:“this case involves nothing more than an irrelevant, rambling statement made by a witness during the course of a grand jury investigation.”

Told you so.  

8. True or False.  There's a Keith Sweat Festival this summer in Jamaica.

You say no. I say yes.

9. 54% of Republicans believe....

That Obama is Muslim.

10.   Steph. Curry.

And one more...

That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time.  If there is a next time...

Your pal,

Jim

Tendown April 19 2015

Tendown 170 is here. This is Tendown 171.

1. Did Lawrence Phillips kill his cellmate?

2. Fill in O'Reilly's blank.  If you're a ____ or a ____ ____ it's open season on you.

3. Assuming the truth of #2, it makes this story incomprehensible.

4. Chase on the last Sopranos episode.

5.

6. The best piece of TV criticism you'll read all year.

7. They gave away food at MSG.

8. Another Muslim killed a....no, that's not what happened.

9.  How do they explain this?

Republicans by a ratio of more than 2-to-1 say the U.S. should support Israel even when its stances diverge with American interests, a new Bloomberg Politics poll finds. Democrats, by roughly the same ratio, say the opposite is true and that the U.S. must pursue its own interests over Israel's. 

10. Goddamn right we do.

And one more...

That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time.  If there is a next time...

Your pal,

Jim

2015 NBA Playoff Pred...Screw It, We're Gonna Win! The Golden St. Warriors Are Gonna Win!!!

2015 NBA Playoff Predictions

Let me short version this.

Five teams have a possibility of winning the NBA Title.

Think of the Hawks and Cavs as the third tier; solidly the best teams in the East.  It's very likely one wins the conference.

Think of the Clips and Spurs as the second tier; either would be favored in the East; whichever survives their first round matchup becomes clearly the second best team in the tournament.

And then...

From 1974-77 the Golden St. Warriors won their only NBA Title since leaving Philadelphia and lost in the western finals and semis. It's the best stretch in Bay Area Basketball history.

I just missed it.  I was 4 when GSW won the NBA Championship; my first Warriors team was 77-78, and while there have been fun stretches (Run TMC, Sleepy Floyd scoring a thousand points in a playoff game against the Lakers, Baron Davis and the We Believe team that beat the Mavs in the playoffs) most Warriors teams have been bad (27 seasons of my years of Warrior fandom have had negative simple rating system scores; SRS is point differential and strength of schedule, I use it for all of my historical comparison lists; it's the best available historical metric) and the decision making has been godawful.

We dealt Robert Parish and the draft pick that turned into Kevin Mchale for Joe Barry Carroll.
We picked Purvis Short over Larry Bird.
We picked Russell Cross over Clyde Drexler.
We drafted Chris Washburn.
We dealt the pick that turned into Gary Payton for Alton Lister.
We dealt Mitch Richmond for Billy Owens
We took Joe Smith #1 overall.
We dealt Penny Hardaway and three number ones for Chris Webber and then dealt Chris Webber for Tom Gugliotta.
We picked Todd Fuller over Kobe Bryant.
We picked Adonal Foyle over Tracy McGrady.
We picked Brandan Wright over Joakim Noah.
We picked Ekpe Udoh over Greg Monroe.

I've been doing this blog a long time.  Here's me 5 years ago.

Take Greg Monroe.  Do not take Udoh.  Do not take Udoh.  Do not take Udoh.  Monroe is a sweet passing big man; he's Andrew Bogut; when we mistakenly sell low on Biedrins at least we'll have Monroe to fall back on.  Udoh is a 23 year old junior.  Do not take Udoh.

But guess what.

The Golden St Warriors, in 2015, are the best team in basketball by a sizeable degree.

Here's my list of every NBA Champion ranked by SRS.

5 of those champions had an SRS over 10.  Kareem and Oscar with the Bucks.  Wilt and West with the Lakers.  3 Jordan teams.  That's the whole list.

The Warriors SRS this year is 10.01.  This is the best team in franchise history by an unbelievable margin; this is the best team in the NBA by a sizeable margin - if the Warriors win the NBA Title they will be one of the very best basketball teams ever assembled.  

The Warriors are slight favorites, right now, +220, to win the NBA Title.  As crazy, as ahistorical as it is to say - you should run to make that investment.

Here's my brackets.

East

Atlanta over Brooklyn in 4

Cleveland over Boston in 5

Chicago over Milwaukee in 6

Toronto over Washington in 6

Atlanta over Toronto in 6

Cleveland over Chicago in 7

Atlanta over Cleveland in 7 (I'll be rooting for the Cavs, more fun that way).

West

Golden St. over New Orleans in 4

Memphis over Portland in 7

Houston over Dallas in 7

San Antonio over LA Clips in 7

Golden St. over Memphis in 5

San Antonio over Houston in 6

Golden St. over San Antonio in 6 

Finals

Golden St. over Atlanta in 6

2015 ALL NBA Teams

Here's the final build.  Here are my votes for All NBA for the 2014-15 season

First Team
C D.Jordan LAC
F A.Davis NO

F L.James Cle 

G J.Harden Hou - MVP

G S.Curry GSt

Second Team

C M.Gasol Mem
F  P.Gasol Chi
F L.Aldridge Por

G C.Paul LAC
G R.Westbrook OKC

Third Team

C D.Cousins Sac

F B.Griffin LAC
F G.Hayward Utah 

G D.Lillard Port 

G K.Irving Cle 

Fourth Team

C. A.Horford Atl
F T.Duncan SA
F K.Leonard SA

G J. Butler Chi

G. K.Thompson GSt

Tendown April 12 2015

Tendown 169 is here. This is Tendown 170.

1. 150 Years Ago - the Confederacy lost. Let's celebrate that.

2.

3. O'Reilly lives on a mountain of lies.

4. Jack Nicklaus hit a hole in one at Augusta this week.

5. The unaired Reno 911 pilot.

6. The answer is Bonds, Mays, Mathewson, Ott.

7. Take surveys!

8. Darren Sharper sure raped a bunch of people.

9. None.  The answer is none.

10. I make baseball picks.

And finally...

11.  Hunter Pence isn't on the field - he's in Rolling Stone.

That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time.  If there is a next time...

Your pal,

Jim

2015 MLB Predictions - Final Build

100 Best Players in Baseball

Top 10 DH

Top 10 Relief Pitchers

Top 30 Starting Pitchers

Top 20 Catchers

Top 20 Third Basemen

Top 20 Second Basemen

Top 20 First Basemen

Top 20 Left Fielders

Top 20 Right Fielders

Top 20 Shortstops

100 Greatest Giants of All Time


Picks.  Win Totals.

AL East
1. Boston 88
2. Baltimore 86
3. Toronto 82
4. NYY 79
5. Tampa 79

AL Central
1. Cleveland 85
2. Detroit 83
3. Chicago 83
4. KC 78
5. Minnesota 69

AL West
1. Seattle 88
2. Oakland 86 -WC (over 82.5)
3. LAA 86 - WC
4. Houston 77
5. Texas 75

NL East
1. Washington 95
2. NYM 81
3. Miami 79 (under 83)
4. Atlanta 70
5. Philadelphia 65

NL Central
1. St Louis 90
2. Chicago 84 - WC
3. Pittsburgh 84 - WC
4. Milwaukee 79
5. Cincinnati 79

NL West
1. LAD 94
2. San Diego 83
3. SFG 83
4. Arizona 70
5. Colorado 70 (under 73.5)

World Series: Washington over Boston

Tendown April 5 2015

168 is here. This is Tendown 169.



1. They're coming after Workman's Comp.

2. Hey Christians, if you want to give your kids Jesus blood jelly beans, go nuts.  But, you know, it's creepy. Fox would get a week out of this if it were Islam.

3. The anti gay pizza place in Indiana.  This was after only two days.  Who do I go to for a Bigot Kickstarter?

4. Mean.

5. The right used to use religion to justify racial discrimination.

6. Could be worse, we could be Iran.  Says a Bad Judy.

7. Indiana's locking women up for abortion.

8. Bankers didn't go to jail.  But teachers did.

9. It's more hawkish on PEDs than I'd be, but the sentiment of this Bonds piece is worth a read.

10. It took the entire offseason, but I now have a list of the 100 most valuable Giants of all time.

And one more...

11. Guess who is selling ladies trousers?

That's all for this time.  I'll be back next time. If there is a next time....

Your pal,

Jim

Forever Giants: 2014 World Champion San Francisco Giants Year 57 (132) (And The Top 100 Giants by WAR of All Time)

2013 is here.

My WAR calculation is a combination of Baseball-reference and Clay Davenport; I believe it to be the "best" WAR number available for historical comparison. 8 WAR is an MVP quality season.  The record is pythagorean adjusted for 162 games.

2014 87-75

C Buster Posey  5.6 

1B Brandon Belt 1.25 

2B Joe Panik 1.6

SS Brandon Crawford 3.5 

3B Pablo Sandoval 3.85 Last Season (22.95)

LF Michael Morse 2.1

CF Angel Pagan 1.75 

RF Hunter Pence 3.95 

CF Gregor Blanco 1.7 

2B Brandon Hicks .7

3B Joaquin Arias -.25

C Hector Sanchez -.4 

LF Tyler Colvin -.3

LF Juan Perez -.8

2B Ehire Adrianza -.1

SP Madison Bumgarner 5.05 

SP Tim Hudson .45

SP Jake Peavy 1.85

SP Tim Lincecum -1.75 

RP Santiago Casilla 2.85 

RP Jeremy Affeldt 1.65 

RP Jean Machi  1.95

-It happened again.  Crazy, right? The first NL team to win 3 titles in 5 years since WWII, your San Francisco Giants.  This is the worst of the 3 clubs, an 87 win pythag meant that, under the new WC format, the Giants had to win a play in game against Pittsburgh, then go to the NLDS and beat the Matt Williams and the Nationals (in a series that included a 6 hour, 18 inning win), then beat the Cards - again - to win the pennant (on a walk off Travis Ishikawa homer) and then take a full 7 games to beat the Royals to become a bonafide Dynasty.  Lincecum (continuing his quest to give back WAR; seriously, I don't think any Giant pitcher has ever had a worse threem) threw another no hitter; Petit broke the record for consecutive batters retired; this wraps up Sandoval.

Forever Giants: 2013 San Francisco Giants Year 56 (131)

2012 is here.

My WAR calculation is a combination of Baseball-reference and Clay Davenport; I believe it to be the "best" WAR number available for historical comparison. 8 WAR is an MVP quality season. The record is pythagorean adjusted for 162 games.

2013 – 74-88

C Buster Posey 5.05 

1B Brandon Belt 4.75 

2B Marco Scutaro 2.15 

SS Brandon Crawford 1.65

3B Pablo Sandoval 1.85

LF Gregor Blanco 1.75 

CF Angel Pagan .95 

RF Hunter Pence 5.35

LF Andres Torres .15 

SS Joaquin Arias .3 

2B Tony Abreu .15

C Hector Sanchez .2

2B Nick Noonan -.55

SP Madison Bumgarner 4.9

SP Tim Lincecum -.65

SP Matt Cain .75 

SP Ryan Vogelsong -2.2

SP Barry Zito -3.25 

SP Chad Gaudin 1.5

RP Sergio Romo 2.55

RP Santiago Casilla 1.95 

RP Javier Lopez 1.6

RP Mike Kickham -2.1

-Pretty terrible, a 74 win pythag the year after the Series.  Lincecum throws a no hitter but has his second straight sub replacement season.  

Forever Giants: 2012 World Champion San Francisco Giants Year 55 (130)

2011 is here.

My WAR calculation is a combination of Baseball-reference and Clay Davenport; I believe it to be the "best" WAR number available for historical comparison. 8 WAR is an MVP quality season. The record is pythagorean adjusted for 162 games.

2012 88-74

C Buster Posey 7.95

1B Brandon Belt 2.4 

2B Ryan Theriot -.35  

SS Brandon Crawford 2.95

3B Pablo Sandoval 3.25 

LF Melky Cabrera 5.3

CF Angel Pagan 5

RF Hunter Pence .1

LF Gregor Blanco 1.4

SS Joaquin Arias 1.55

2B Marco Scutaro 2.35

C Hector Sanchez  .3

RF Nate Schierholtz .65 

2B Emmanuel Burriss -1.25

1B Brett Pill -.25

SP Matt Cain 5.25 

SP Madison Bumgarner 3

SP Ryan Vogelsong 2.6 

SP Tim Lincecum -2

SP Barry Zito .25 

RP Santiago Casilla 1.25

RP Sergio Romo 3.05

-88 pythag wins...and the second World Championship in 3 years.  Posey comes back with an MVPQ season, the best catcher season in all 130 years of Giants baseball (and it's not close).  Cain throws the first perfect game in 130 years of Giants baseball; Giants dominate the All Star Game then lose Melky Cabrera, who had been their best player in the first half, for the last two months of the season on a drug suspension.  The Giants were down 2 games to 0 in the NLDS and beat the Reds, down 3 games to 1 in the NLCS and beat the Cards - then swept the Tigers in the Series, Pablo Sandoval hit three game one homers.